- Need to consider that Seismic hazard article exists***
Earthquake forecasting is a branch of the science of seismology concerned with the probabilistic assessment of general earthquake hazard, including the frequency and magnitude of damaging earthquakes in a given area over years or decades.[1] While forecasting is usually considered to be a type of prediction, earthquake forecasting is often differentiated from earthquake prediction, whose goal is the specification of the time, location, and magnitude of future earthquakes with sufficient precision that a warning can be issued.[2][3] Both forecasting and prediction of earthquakes are distinguished from earthquake warning systems, which upon detection of an earthquake, provide a real-time warning to regions that might be affected.
In the 1970s, scientists were optimistic that a practical method for predicting earthquakes would soon be found, but by the 1990s continuing failure led many to question whether it was even possible.[4] Demonstrably successful predictions of large earthquakes have not occurred and the few claims of success are controversial.[5] Consequently, many scientific and government resources have been used for probabilistic seismic hazard forecasts rather than prediction of individual earthquakes. Such forecasts are used to establish building codes, insurance rate structures, awareness and preparedness programs, and public policy related to seismic events.[6]
What is an earthquake forecast? edit
How is a forecast made? edit
Trends edit
Characteristic Earthquakes edit
Seismic Gaps edit
Notable Forecasts and Hazard Assessments edit
UCERF3 edit
= edit
Notes edit
- ^ Kanamori 2003, p. 1205. See also ICEF 2011, p. 327.
- ^ Geller et al. 1997, p. 1616, following Allen (1976, p. 2070), who in turn followed Wood & Gutenberg (1935). Kagan (1997b, §2.1) says: "This definition has several defects which contribute to confusion and difficulty in prediction research." In addition to specification of time, location, and magnitude, Allen suggested three other requirements: 4) indication of the author's confidence in the prediction, 5) the chance of an earthquake occurring anyway as a random event, and 6) publication in a form that gives failures the same visibility as successes. Kagan & Knopoff (1987, p. 1563) define prediction (in part) "to be a formal rule where by the available space-time-seismic moment manifold of earthquake occurrence is significantly contracted ...."
- ^ Kagan 1997b, p. 507.
- ^ Geller et al. 1997, p. 1617; Geller 1997, §2.3, p. 427; Console 2001, p. 261.
- ^ E.g., the most famous claim of a successful prediction is that alleged for the 1975 Haicheng earthquake (ICEF 2011, p. 328), and is now listed as such in textbooks (Jackson2004, p. 344). A later study concluded there was no valid short-term prediction (Wang et al. 2006). See Earthquake prediction.
- ^ "National Seismic Hazard Maps". United States Geological Survey. 25 August 2016. Retrieved 1 September 2016.
Sources edit
- Allen, Clarence R. (December 1976), "Responsibilities in earthquake prediction", Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 66 (6): 2069–2074.
- Console, R. (30 August 2001), "Testing earthquake forecast hypotheses", Tectonophysics, 338 (3–4): 261–268, Bibcode:2001Tectp.338..261C, doi:10.1016/S0040-1951(01)00081-6.
- Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review." (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x
- Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco (14 March 1997), "Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted" (PDF), Science, 275 (5306): 1616, doi:10.1126/science.275.5306.1616.
- International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (30 May 2011), "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization", Annals of Geophysics, 54 (4): 315–391, doi:10.4401/ag-5350.
- Kagan, Yan Y. (December 1997b), "Are earthquakes predictable?" (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 131 (3): 505–525, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..505K, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x.
- Kanamori, Hiroo (2003), "Earthquake Prediction: An Overview", International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, International Geophysics, 616: 1205–1216, doi:10.1016/s0074-6142(03)80186-9, ISBN 0-12-440658-0.
- Wood, H. O.; Gutenberg, B. (6 September 1935), "Earthquake prediction" (PDF), Science, 82 (2123): 219–320, Bibcode:1935Sci....82..219W, doi:10.1126/science.82.2123.219.