Talk:Pre-election pendulum for the 2019 Australian federal election

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Redistributions edit

Latest comment: 5 years ago7 comments3 people in discussion

There have been redistributions that affect many of these seats, one has been abolished, two have been created and several others have had their names changed.--Grahame (talk) 03:01, 18 August 2018 (UTC)Reply

Grrr, I know. There really is no point in creating these pendulums by duplicating the last post-election/pre-redistribution pendulum—it's just misleading and confusing. Antony Green was quite critical of our tendency to do this a few years ago. Anyway, I'll update the pendulum today. --Canley (talk) 02:49, 26 August 2018 (UTC)Reply

I've just updated and corrected the pendulum to take the redistributions into account. Just a note for anyone "updating" this pendulum based on by-elections—it is supposed to represent a uniform two-party swing from the 2016 election, so please don't use the by-election result margins, or even the two-candidate margins from 2016. --Canley (talk) 04:25, 26 August 2018 (UTC)Reply

The Queensland seats of Moreton and Rankin seem to be missing from this analysis. The Victorian seat of Holt also appears to be missing OldBryan (talk) 11:39, 31 August 2018 (UTC).Reply

Thanks for spotting that, I've fixed these now. --Canley (talk) 23:51, 31 August 2018 (UTC)Reply

Just notices the seat of Mallee is listed twice... OldBryan (talk) 11:59, 2 September 2018 (UTC)Reply

Thanks, should have been Nicholls. --Canley (talk) 02:17, 3 September 2018 (UTC)Reply

Two-candidate-preferred edit

Latest comment: 5 years ago2 comments2 people in discussion

Don't we normally have the 2CP rather than the 2PP margins for these? Both the 2016 ones do, for example. Seems a bit silly to have Cooper and Wills way up the pendulum when they're actually much closer. Frickeg (talk) 05:56, 26 August 2018 (UTC)Reply

Yes, we normally have, and Antony Green did too, although he didn't for this one... he does list the 2CP margin as well though, so could at least do that. It's a good point, Ged Kearney is hardly super-safe on a 22 point 2PP margin when Cooper is 0.6 against the Greens. I'll try and work something out... --Canley (talk) 06:50, 26 August 2018 (UTC)Reply

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