Talk:2006 Atlantic hurricane season/October

Latest comment: 17 years ago by Icelandic Hurricane in topic October

October

edit

Week 1

edit

98L.INVEST

edit

The non-tropical low at 29.6N 29.8W, mentioned in the 5:30 TWO, has become better organized and is now 98L. -- RattleMan 22:33, 2 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

Intresting location... →Cyclone1 22:44, 2 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
Called this one in IRC earlier. It looks really good, and it's over warm waters (24-26 degrees C). Mid-level shear's quite low on the CIMSS maps, as well. It should be interesting to see if this does anything. --Coredesat (talk) 00:29, 3 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
Does this look very familiar to you? CrazyC83 00:34, 3 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
NRL already has it at 35kt. We could have a subtropical storm sooner rather than later. Pobbie Rarr 02:47, 3 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
That is quite possible, although the NHC is downplaying it. I need to wait for Quikscat to come up to see if there is a closed circulation... CrazyC83 03:15, 3 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
NHC thinks its pretty much dead now. Jamie|C 17:30, 3 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
Oh well. →Cyclone1 20:54, 3 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

Gone now. --Mark J 08:37, 6 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

99L.INVEST

edit

New Invest up around 29.6N 70.0W. --Ajm81 12:35, 6 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

Further west than any of our past few storms have been. Still,
Chacor 13:54, 6 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
Recon tomorrow, "if necessary". --Coredesat (talk) 20:28, 6 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
It's not tropical at this point, but could gain characteristics. Environment is not great for formation though... CrazyC83 21:20, 6 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
Danger area up. →Cyclone1 00:30, 7 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
Looks pretty healthy on satellite images. It's a pretty big system, looks like the low pressure area extends from Nova Scotia to the southeastern Bahamas. AstroHurricane001 14:38, 7 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
"Healthy" if you mean the extratropical remnants of it. There's very little left of this to develop. – Chacor 14:42, 7 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

Yep, danger area's gone, too. Looks like if anything is going to form in this area, it'll be that deep low over the Carolina's when it moves offshore. →Cyclone1 17:35, 7 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

Danger area down now. Not looking too good 204.108.237.194 18:10, 7 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

Gone from NRL. --Ajm81 04:07, 8 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

Week 2

edit

90L.INVEST

edit

Up on NRL for the area east of the Lesser Antilles. Hurricanehink (talk) 00:15, 11 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

From NHC:

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD WESTWARD THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

Hurricanehink (talk) 00:16, 11 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

It does have some pockets of favorable conditions that could allow it to develop, but it would be short-lived most likely. CrazyC83 14:34, 11 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
Why is it called 90L if there has already been a 99L? I think the wind shear in the Carribbean should prevent it form going as far as the Gulf Coast. It does look pretty healthy, though. AstroHurricane001 22:03, 11 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
Invests are areas of potential development with numbers reserved between 90 and 99. Thus, after 99 is 90 again. Hurricanehink (talk) 22:06, 11 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
Its up on NHC's danger area now. Jamie|C 12:35, 12 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
TCFA issued by KNGU. – Chacor 15:31, 12 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
Chances of formation dimishing...bob rulz 20:01, 12 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
Threres still some spin left in it. Storm05 13:31, 13 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

Gone. -- RattleMan 00:12, 16 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

91L.INVEST

edit

Weak looking system in the EAtl. – Chacor 14:36, 12 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

This thing looks rather pathetic and NHC isn't impressed with it at all. bob rulz 20:00, 12 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
I agree with the NHC. But, you never know. →Cyclone1 22:08, 12 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
Gone. bob rulz 02:19, 15 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

Week 3

edit

92L.INVEST

edit

Up on NRL. No image yet, but it's probably that low over the Gulf.→Cyclone1 01:38, 15 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

Yep, it is. Looks really good. I see a Joyce in the short term. →Cyclone1 01:39, 15 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
I doubt it, it's under heavy shear so unless that shear goes away, Joyce will have to wait. 24.85.160.56 01:40, 15 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

First guidance out! SHIPs forecast peak of 49kt at 72h, while DSHP peaks at 34kt in 24h. All available models head for Louisiana, LBAR going over/near NOLA. -- RattleMan 02:14, 15 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

Yeah, this thing looks impressive. But the shear has to weaken considerably. bob rulz 02:20, 15 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
Wind shear is forecast to weaken in the Gulf next week. Of course 92L may not be around long enough to see it happen. Pobbie Rarr 02:24, 15 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
Not likely to happen, but it is nearly stationary. →Cyclone1 02:40, 15 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
Quite surprising for it to come up. Unlike 91L, this one has a legitimate chance. CrazyC83 03:37, 15 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
Well, the convection has really dried up over the past few hours. It looks like the shear's made short work of it. --Coredesat 03:50, 15 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

This sounds like such a dunce of a thing to ask - but has anyone got the links to the references doktorb wordsdeeds 03:56, 15 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

It's in the Naval Research Laboratory. Titoxd(?!?) 03:59, 15 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
Wind shear in the Gulf is averaging 40-50 knots right now, it would take a dramatic weakening for this thing to even have a chance (can you spell "long shot"?). Never thought I'd find myself enjoying a quiet spell but I am. Saves money on coffins and that's always a good thing. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 05:27, 15 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

Interesting...Chacor 10:39, 15 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

Very... Looks like a Joyce to me. Bouy reading are already getting sustained winds of over 40mph. I'd say thishas abetter chance than what the sheer makes it look like. It's catching sheer from newly formed Norman, too, so when Norman moves overland and loses circulation, well, we'll see. →Cyclone1 13:11, 15 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
Looks like they are headed on a collision course... CrazyC83 16:42, 15 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
That would be cool. →Cyclone1 01:30, 16 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

Seems to be making landfall and a tornado-producer more than anything... CrazyC83 16:41, 16 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

Certainly it's a rain-producer. There's tons of flooding in southeast Texas and Louisiana right now. bob rulz 23:11, 16 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
That too this afternoon and evening. It was a tropical storm in all but name and formation... CrazyC83 00:29, 17 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
Well, apparently this thing is now responsible for a few deaths and injuries as well as much damage to infrastructure. Which means that 92L has had more impact than any of the named storms this year (perhaps even including Ernesto). Pobbie Rarr 02:34, 18 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
Maybe this storm even deserves an article. Looks like there will be rain over parts of Mexico over the next few days due to 92L and Norman. AstroHurricane001 00:04, 19 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
I doubt an INVEST desverves it-unless 92L forms with Norman for real damages.Mitchazenia V3.0 18:47, 19 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
Invests don't get articles unless they do something absolutely spectacular. Rain alone isn't spectacular. --Coredesat 19:47, 19 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
Has one gotton one before though?platyfish625 23:37, 19 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
Yea. In fact, invests are more likely to get articles than depressions; numerous tropical waves or disturbances, such as the one that hit North Carolina back in June, resulted in severe flooding, but never developed into tc's. Hurricanehink (talk) 23:50, 19 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
Hello? Is 92L active or dissipated? If Norman is long gone, and Paul is also dissapating, is 92L still producing convection or is it gone? I notice the last message refering to 92L as active was more than a week ago. So has 92L stayed active throught all this time, or did the landfall make it lose all of its convection? AstroHurricane001 13:49, 27 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
I was going to ask the same thing a couple of days ago but by now I think it should have dissipated platyfish625 14:58, 27 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

90L.INVEST

edit

It's back from the dead. [1] I can't see anything forming from this, though. →Cyclone1 15:12, 17 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

Any thoughts? →Cyclone1 23:21, 17 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
Looks like the tail end of a front. Perhaps the models are calling for the formation of a cutoff low. --Coredesat 23:51, 17 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

Gone again. -- RattleMan 01:49, 18 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

SSD 9:45pm UTC - 20N 66.5W -- TOO WEAK -- グリフオーザー 05:26, 19 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
Interestingly, it was mentioned in the 10:30 PM TWO:
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA JUST
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO HAVE INCREASED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION.
--Coredesat 05:28, 19 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

Back on FNMOC. -- RattleMan 06:54, 19 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

Back on NRL now. -- RattleMan 17:08, 19 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

Too much shear, but give this thing credit for lasting this long - this blob deserves to become Joyce... CrazyC83 18:34, 19 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
This storm wont die!!! →Cyclone1 22:36, 19 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
Sorry but this storm is sincerely dead... — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 07:57, 22 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
So is this storm still going or has the convection all dried up? I notice there is still some convection east of the West Indies. AstroHurricane001 13:54, 27 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

Week 4

edit

93L.INVEST

edit

And a 93L has just appeared on the backup Navy site. 11.8N, 47.7W, east of the Windward Islands. --Coredesat 01:20, 27 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

That's the low that the NHC was talking about in their disscussion that i posted on this page which was reverted by chacor yesterday. Storm05 12:59, 27 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
Yes, because we do not allow AOIs. – Chacor 13:03, 27 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
Looks pretty solid. Joyce anyone? →Cyclone1 21:15, 27 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
It is still a fight ahead for it... CrazyC83 22:44, 27 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
Not exactly true. Sheer is lightening up and conditions are becoming more favorable. →Cyclone1 00:09, 28 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
The storms this season haven't been very good at utilizing opportunities given to them and this piece of crap has a long way to go if it has any aspirations to become a tropical cyclone. The models point it towards Jamaica, athough if it develops, that won't stay the case for it would be a much deeper system. It's surprising to me that there is that there would be that much northerly shift for such a shallow system. If it develops (a big if at this point) I predict it to swing northeast, splicing through the Greater Antilles into the open Atlantic. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 19:30, 28 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

Me too. I think it could effect Cuba and Bahamas (if it develops of course). →Cyclone1 19:48, 28 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

Convection is increasing slowly. Will it last? Doubtfully, but it's trying. →Cyclone1 20:53, 28 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
And now it's beginning to die. →Cyclone1 02:16, 29 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
Wow! It look much better today! →Cyclone1 13:15, 29 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

NHC has issued a SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE ARE
NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

I bolded what I thought was important. It says "AT THIS TIME", because in the TWO its says (not exact quote) "COULD DEVELOP OVERTIME". And life-threating is always important. This is beginning to remind me of the 2004 May wave, except it's still moving west, not north over Haiti. Any way, this storm looks like it could be a winner if you ask me. We could have a Joyce before Wednesday. →Cyclone1 13:23, 29 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

I wasn't into hurricanes in 2004, so what happened with the 2004 May wave? Let me guess, a bunch of people died. I think hink mentioned he was gonna make an article for it a while ago, but he never did. Maybe it should be done. íslenskur fellibylur #12 (samtal) 14:45, 29 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
Over 2,000 people died from that May wave in 2004. If we were active then, there likely would have been an article on the spot there. CrazyC83 15:12, 29 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
This thing's developing too slowly. If it doesn't have a number under 12 by the time it reaches the Greater Antilles, it's finished. That probably doesn't make Haiti or Cuba feel any better though. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 18:04, 29 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
The NHC's beginning to lose faith in it. →Cyclone1 23:00, 29 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
I agree. I never felt it would develop, but that would just be semantics at this point. The impact would be no different whether or not it did develop. CrazyC83 01:18, 30 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

Gone. íslenskur fellibylur #12 (samtal) 12:37, 30 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

It's back! --Ajm81 19:09, 31 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

Seems like 93 has become more of a trough, with two main low pressure areas: One north of Honduras and one east of Nicaragua. Both are fairly organized. The one further north looks like it has a better chance, because the other is close too landfall. →Cyclone1 01:37, 1 November 2006 (UTC)Reply
Still some spin left in it [2]. Storm05 16:31, 2 November 2006 (UTC)Reply
Dvorak estimates now T1.5/1.5! -- WmE 18:15, 2 November 2006 (UTC)Reply
Looks better organized than Gamma and Kyle 02 ever were in that spot. I'm suprised that the NHC doesn't even expect development into a TD. íslenskur fellibylur #12 (samtal) 22:32, 2 November 2006 (UTC)Reply

90L.INVEST (error)

edit

Up on the NRL. No pic. What happened to 94-99? or is that just an error? →Cyclone1 17:23, 29 October 2006 (UTC)Reply

I wouldn't be surprised. Computers as well as humans are prone to glitches. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 18:04, 29 October 2006 (UTC)Reply
It's gone now. -- WmE 19:08, 29 October 2006 (UTC)Reply