Talk:2006–07 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season/March

March

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Week 1

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18S.JACOB

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94S.INVEST
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14.8S 117.5E 15 kt, west of 92S. – Chacor 15:19, 2 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

JTWC 030800:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.9S 117.1 E,
APPROXIMATELY 395 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION PER-
SISTING OVER A TIGHT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ALSO EVIDENT IN A
020549Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS NORTH OF THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN ZONE OF FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTI-
MATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO UNFAVORABLY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

- SpLoT // 09:31, 3 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Perth TCWC - Tropical Low
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Tropical Low
14.3ºS 114.8ºE -- 1000 hPa

730 km north northwest of Karratha moving west-northwest at 4 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================================
Tuesday= moderate
Wednesday= moderate
Thursday = low

-- グリフオーザー 05:54, 5 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Low now 25 kts 998 hpa, low may form into a tropical cyclone in 18 to 24 hours - グリフオーザー 09:38, 5 March 2007 (UTC)Reply
Tropical Cyclone Jacob
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12.8ºS 108.3ºE -- 45 knots 988 hPa
Cyclone Watch for Christmas Island - グリフオーザー 01:24, 7 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Now Tropical Cyclone 18S from JTWC. --Coredesat 03:54, 7 March 2007 (UTC)Reply
Up to 55 kt from the TCWC, cyclone warning for Christmas Island. --Coredesat 07:54, 7 March 2007 (UTC)Reply
Severe Tropical Cyclone Jacob
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70 knots 956 hPa, Cyclone Warning continues for Christmas Is. - グリフオーザー 22:53, 7 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Set to make landfall close to where George hit, weakened due to supressed poleward outflow and high vertical wind shear. - SpLoT // 15:20, 10 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Now weakened to a Category 1.....fortunately. RaNdOm26 05:56, 11 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Week 2

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19S.INDLALA [12R]

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95S.INVEST
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11.7ºS 66.4ºE - 15 knots 1006 hPa - グリフオーザー 02:54, 7 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Now 13.1°S 65.2°E. - SpLoT // 13:21, 9 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Getting more organized, POOR from JTWC 09/18Z. - SpLoT // 03:02, 10 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

JTWC 10/1230Z:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8S
65.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 62.0E, APPROXIMATELY 770 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SAT-
ELLITE IMAGERY AND A 100942Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION
FLARING NEAR AND OVER THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THIS DISTURBANCE LIES UNDER THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF A 200 MB
ANTICYCLONE, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BECAUSE THE LLCC HAS
IMPROVED AND CONVECTION IS FLARING NEAR THE CENTER, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

- SpLoT // 15:22, 10 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Perturbation Tropicale 12R
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sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots, 1000 hPa pressure. - グリフオーザー 04:36, 11 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

TCFA issued at 10/23Z. M-F expects it to develop into TS. - SpLoT // 04:48, 11 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

huh? why is this 08R when this is the 12th system issued by Reunion? - グリフオーザー 05:10, 11 March 2007 (UTC)Reply
Sorry for the confusion. My mistake. - SpLoT // 06:04, 11 March 2007 (UTC)Reply
Dépression Tropicale 12R
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TD from M-F. SpLoT // 16:41, 11 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Tempête Tropicale Modérée Indlala
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TS from M-F, TCFA continued from JTWC. And that's I-N-D-L-A-D-A, not I-N-D-L-A-L-A. - SpLoT // 00:26, 12 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

JTWC TC 19S Indlala. I've emailed Meteo France for clarification, since they're now calling it "Indlala" too but the map says "Indlada" and SAB says "Indlada". – Chacor 03:45, 12 March 2007 (UTC)Reply
I-N-D-L-A -_- A. India? Indala? Indlalalalalalala? Indadla? Inlada? Indlanda? Idnlada? Indlaya? Indlaжa? SpLoT // 03:51, 12 March 2007 (UTC)Reply
There seems to be some confusion: [1] -- RattleMan 04:09, 12 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

MetFrance have replied (about 30 hours after I sent the email! Heh) - the correct name is "Indlala", with an "l". – Chacor 08:44, 13 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Forte Tempête Tropicale Indlala
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50 knots with gusts up to 70 knots, 984 hPa - グリフオーザー 18:58, 12 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Cyclone Tropical Indlala
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65 kt, 965 hPa, forecast calls for quick intensification to 95 kt in 36 hours. --Coredesat 06:23, 13 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Up to 95 kt and 954 hPa now, with continued rapid intensification expected. This could be a monster when (I should say if) it hits Madagascar. bob rulz 05:22, 14 March 2007 (UTC)Reply
It looks like a monster already (though only at 100 kts). --IrfanFaiz 11:40, 14 March 2007 (UTC)Reply
Intense Tropical Cyclone Indlala
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NRL now says 115 kt, 927mbar. MF just upgraded it at 940 hPa to an intense TC. – Chacor 12:50, 14 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

What a monster, bad for Madagascar. --IrfanFaiz 13:50, 14 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

20 nm diameter eye earlier today.. JTWC 125 kts, 919 mb. RSMC Reunion 95 kts, 935 hPa. - グリフオーザー 01:05, 15 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Eye crossing inland now. --IrfanFaiz 02:35, 15 March 2007 (UTC)Reply
Mass of clouds over Madagascar now. --IrfanFaiz 00:12, 17 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

96P.INVEST

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21.5°S 167.0°W, 25kt 1002mb. High vertical wind shear competing with good outflow, designated POOR by JTWC 09/06Z. - SpLoT // 13:21, 9 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

RSMC Nadi Tropical Disturbance
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Tropical Disturbance with TC potential low to moderate. - SpLoT // 13:24, 9 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Dissipated according to JTWC. - SpLoT // 06:36, 10 March 2007 (UTC)Reply
Poof. - SpLoT // 04:52, 11 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Week 3

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97P.INVEST

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15.1°S 138.6°E. - SpLoT // 13:21, 9 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

gone - グリフオーザー 04:39, 11 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

98S.INVEST [13R]

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98S.INVEST
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12.8ºS 69.8ºE - 15 knots, 1006 hPa - グリフオーザー 04:39, 11 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

POOR. – Chacor 08:45, 13 March 2007 (UTC)Reply
Zone Perturbée 13-20062007
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20 knots with wind gusts up to 30 knots, 1005 hPa - グリフオーザー 20:44, 13 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Perturbation Tropicale 13R
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25 knots with wind gusts up to 35 knots, 1001 hPa - グリフオーザー 07:55, 15 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

XT/dissipated from JTWC and M-F, though NRL/FNMOC still carrying it. - SpLoT // 07:39, 17 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

99P.INVEST

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12.0ºS 148.0ºE - 15 knots - グリフオーザー 06:15, 14 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

gone - グリフオーザー 01:06, 15 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Week 4

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90P.INVEST [12F]

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90P.INVEST
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12.3°S 175.8°E. - SpLoT // 13:18, 19 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

POOR. - SpLoT // 08:32, 20 March 2007 (UTC)Reply
upgraded to Fair by JTWC - グリフオーザー 23:09, 21 March 2007 (UTC)Reply
Tropical Depression 12F
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1005 hPa, potential forming into tropical cyclone is low to moderate. - グリフオーザー 00:50, 22 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

12F? The last one we have is 09F. Where'd 10F and 11F go? – Chacor 02:13, 22 March 2007 (UTC)Reply
I think we should hold off on adding it to the article for now, until this is cleared up (Core is emailing Nadi). – Chacor 02:17, 22 March 2007 (UTC)Reply
Was wondering the same thing, unless they numbered Odette and another Tropical Low from Brisbane that entered their area. - グリフオーザー 02:34, 22 March 2007 (UTC)Reply
Email reply from RSMC Nadi: "Just to let you know that 10F and 11F were short-lived systems and may therefore not gained much attention. The numbering is therefore in order." --Coredesat 04:26, 22 March 2007 (UTC)Reply
I can't find tropical disturbance summaries that mention 10F and 11F - Chacor e-mailed Gary Padgett, who might know more. I'm personally going to hold off on adding 12F for a little bit until we figure this out, but someone else can add it if they want. --Coredesat 04:39, 22 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Gale Warnings issued for this depression, the number isn't posted this time. - グリフオーザー 03:51, 22 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Looks ok in sat images, No TCFA yet from JTWC. --IrfanFaiz 05:15, 22 March 2007 (UTC)Reply
TCFAs are only issued when potential is "GOOD". It's still "FAIR" from JTWC. – Chacor 05:35, 22 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

TCFA now issued. – Chacor 09:40, 22 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

LLCC exposed and being sheared, the RSMC Nadi has issued its final tropical disturbance advisory. - グリフオーザー 02:29, 23 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Downgraded to poor by JTWC. - SpLoT // 10:06, 24 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

91S.INVEST

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9.7°S 89.9°E. - SpLoT // 12:58, 20 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

"99S"

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Only on SSD/SAB, this subtropical cyclone was noticed by Chacor on the 18th and then was given a ST2.5 classification at 9Z today: [2] -- RattleMan 16:06, 20 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Another ST2.5 at 1400Z, 35.6S 37.1E. --Coredesat 17:24, 20 March 2007 (UTC)Reply
Actually, four consecutive ST2.5s already. - SpLoT // 12:52, 21 March 2007 (UTC)Reply
SAB has issued final bulletin ST1.5. – Chacor 02:53, 22 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

20S.KARA

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92S.INVEST
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16.4S 120.6E - 15 kts 1006 hPa

Perth Tropical Low
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16.0ºS 120.8ºE - 25 knots 1004 hPa
A CYCLONE WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Onslow to Cape Leveque. - グリフオーザー 08:12, 24 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

FAIR. - SpLoT // 10:06, 24 March 2007 (UTC)Reply
TCFA issued. - SpLoT // 04:23, 25 March 2007 (UTC)Reply
Tropical Cyclone Kara
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35 kts with gusts up to 50 kts, 990 hPa
A CYCLONE WATCH is current for CATEGORY 1 tropical cyclone for coastal areas from Onslow to Broome. - グリフオーザー 07:30, 25 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Intensifying fast, Aus Cat 2 now. - SpLoT // 16:30, 25 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara
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Now a severe tropical cyclone from BOM, 65 kt/966 hPa. --Coredesat 00:55, 26 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

getting very close to Category 4 Cyclone..

currently 80 knots gusts up to 115 knots. Central pressure of 950 hPa. - グリフオーザー 07:12, 26 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

21P.BECKY

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93P.INVEST
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12.5S 157.5E - 15 kts 1006 hPa - グリフオーザー 08:14, 24 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

POOR. - SpLoT // 07:41, 25 March 2007 (UTC)Reply
FAIR. - SpLoT // 16:30, 25 March 2007 (UTC)Reply
Brisbane Tropical Low
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A tropical low 1001 hpa near 12S 157.5E

low may form into a tropical cyclone in the next few days. - グリフオーザー 16:48, 25 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

997 hPa Tropical Low 12.0S 160.2E
Gale Warning issued. the low is moving east at 9 knots. - グリフオーザー 23:37, 25 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Tropical Depression 13F
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Tropical Low is in RSMC Nadi AoR. - グリフオーザー 00:08, 26 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Special Weather Advisory in Vanuatu concerning TD13F - グリフオーザー 18:51, 26 March 2007 (UTC)Reply
Tropical Cyclone Becky
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40 knots, 990 hPa - グリフオーザー 22:19, 26 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Intensifying, nearly 10-min 65 kt, curving to sweep through Vanuatu and New Caledonia. - SpLoT // 15:19, 27 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Week 5

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22S.JAYA [14R]

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94S.INVEST
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12.4ºS 85.5ºE - 15 knots - グリフオーザー 23:41, 25 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

JTWC 0300am UTC - グリフオーザー 08:40, 28 March 2007 (UTC)Reply
13.0ºS 77.5ºE, Partly exposed llcc with deep convection and weak banding developing over the western quadrant. Upper level analysis shows an anticyclone east of the center with diffluent easterly flow over the area with weak vertical wind shear. Maximum sustained winds of 15 to 20 knots with a sea level pressure estimated at 1005 mb. The potential of this disturbance to develop into a significant tropical cyclone is poor.

Consolidating low level circulation center, Maximum sustained winds 20 to 25 knots. Disturbance upgraded to fair. - グリフオーザー 03:03, 29 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Zone Perturbée 14R
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Now a zone perturbée, numbered 14R. Per M-F 12Z: 12.9°S 69.0°E, 20kt 1004 hPa. - SpLoT // 15:48, 29 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

TCFA issued - グリフオーザー 02:04, 30 March 2007 (UTC)Reply
Depression Tropicale
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30 knots, 999 hPa - グリフオーザー 06:56, 30 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Tropical Cyclone 22S
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Designated 22S, first warning issued 09Z. Forecast to reach 80kt strength in 48h. - SpLoT // 13:47, 30 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Tempête Tropicale Modérée Jaya
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Named by Mauritius. - SpLoT // 13:47, 30 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Cyclone Tropical Jaya
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(10 min) 65 knots with gusts up to 90 knots, 970 hPa - グリフオーザー 00:37, 31 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Cyclone Tropical Intense Jaya
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Rapid intensification. - SpLoT // 12:41, 31 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Starting to weaken now, headed for northeastern tip of Madagascar. - ζpLoT // 13:13, 2 April 2007 (UTC)Reply

Beginning to regenerate in the Mozambique Channel. - ζpLoT // 09:14, 5 April 2007 (UTC)Reply

JTWC: 930am UTC:
An area of convection near 14.3S 42.0E or 405 nm west-northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar. The remnants of Jaya is beginning to re-organize in the Mozambique Channel. Imagery shows increased deep convection over the low level circulation center with 20 to 25 knots unflagged winds close to the center. The system is less than 100 nm from the Mozambique coastline, but it may strengthen into a tropical cyclone prior to landfall.
Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 20 to 30 knots with a center pressure of 1002 mb
The potential of this disturbance to develop into a significant tropical cyclone is GOOD.
- グリフオーザー 09:45, 5 April 2007 (UTC)Reply

Perturbation Tropicale ex-Jaya
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Met-France has restarted intermittent advisories on 14R. – Chacor 12:24, 5 April 2007 (UTC)Reply

JTWC re-issued TCFA at 05/2130. Location 15.6S 41.3E, 385 nm WNW of Antananarivo. Deepest convection concentration on eastern quadrant of LLCC. System located less than 75 nm from Mozambique coastline, and convection on western quadrant is being affected by terrain. Tracking SSW under influence of ridge anchored over southern Madagascar, expected to track down the Mozambique Channel. Winds 25-30 kt, pressure 1002 mb. - SpLoT // 03:40, 6 April 2007 (UTC)Reply

POOR now, JTWC says due to shear and a weakening supporting anticyclone. - SpLoT // 14:09, 6 April 2007 (UTC)Reply

Made a comeback with short term rapid intensification. M-F issuing advisories again. - SpLoT // 13:01, 7 April 2007 (UTC)Reply

FAIR from JTWC at 14Z. - SpLoT // 16:12, 7 April 2007 (UTC)Reply
Gone again from M-F, JTWC notes that it's unclassifiable with the Dvorak technique. --Coredesat 08:38, 8 April 2007 (UTC)Reply

95S.INVEST

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10.1ºS 110.1ºE - 15 knots - グリフオーザー 23:41, 25 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

gone earlier this week. - グリフオーザー 08:41, 28 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

96P.INVEST

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16.5ºS 159.0ºW - 15 kts 1006 hPa - グリフオーザー 00:12, 30 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

97S.INVEST

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8.0ºS 87.0ºE - 15 kts - グリフオーザー 03:19, 30 March 2007 (UTC)Reply

Perth notes a weak low which may develop further in the next few days - グリフオーザー 05:18, 30 March 2007 (UTC)Reply
POOR from JTWC. - ζpLoT // 13:16, 2 April 2007 (UTC)Reply

Gone. - SpLoT // 13:04, 8 April 2007 (UTC)Reply