Talk:2006–07 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season/December

December

Week 1

95P.INVEST

A 95P just popped up, near 11.8S 159.8E. --Coredesat 23:32, 7 December 2006 (UTC)

(edit conflict) 15kt, 1006 mb. -- RattleMan 23:34, 7 December 2006 (UTC)

may affect northeastern Australia, Brisbane BOM said Dec 6th, not expected to develop into a significate system. -- グリフオーザー 01:49, 8 December 2006 (UTC)

Gone. --Coredesat 21:10, 8 December 2006 (UTC)

Week 2

96S.INVEST

6S 65E. – Chacor 12:06, 11 December 2006 (UTC)

Also gone. --Coredesat 22:07, 12 December 2006 (UTC)

97P.INVEST

10.0S 167.5E --Ajm⁸¹ 19:04, 13 December 2006 (UTC)

RSMC Nadi marine bulletin has this as a tropical disturbance near 8S 165E. (No new section as it isn't numbered.) --Coredesat 00:51, 14 December 2006 (UTC)

Gone. --Ajm⁸¹ 05:07, 15 December 2006 (UTC)

Week 3

05S.BONDO [03R]

98S.INVEST

A 98S just popped up, near 7.0S 71.0E. --Coredesat 12:17, 15 December 2006 (UTC)

Global model is trying to form this into a strong cyclone hitting Madagascar. - グリフオーザー 15:57, 15 December 2006 (UTC)

CMC says a 990 to 980 hPa storm (strong TS) hitting Madagascar. – Chacor 16:11, 15 December 2006 (UTC)

JTWC: 0300am UTC - グリフオーザー 05:17, 16 December 2006 (UTC)
An area of convection persistent near 7.2ºS 68.0ºE or 250 nm west of Diego Garcia. Imagery shows a sustained convection in the vicinity of the low level circulation center. Analysis reveals that the disturbance is within a region of low vertical wind shear with maximum sustained winds of 15 to 20 knots and a center pressure of 1006 mb.

The potential of this disturbance to develop into a significant tropical cyclone within 24 hours is poor.

TCFA issued, upgraded to GOOD. 9.1S 65.8E, 410 nm WSW of Diego Garcia. Deep convection flaring over LLCC with convective bands. Low vertical wind shear, strong poleward outflow with good divergence aloft. Winds of 25 to 30 kt, pressure of 1002 mb. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 02:50, 17 December 2006 (UTC)

no advisories from RSMC La Reunion, probably at 630am UTC. - グリフオーザー 03:10, 17 December 2006 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 03R

Perturbation tropicale 03-20062007. – Chacor 12:52, 17 December 2006 (UTC)

forte tempete tropicale expected in 72 hours -- グリフオーザー 06:52, 18 December 2006 (UTC)

05S.NONAME

JTWC initial warning. – Chacor 14:23, 18 December 2006 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Bondo

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/3/20062007
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO)
-- RattleMan 00:44, 19 December 2006 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Bondo

The first STS of the year in the SWIO. – Chacor 06:34, 19 December 2006 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Bondo

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/12/20 00 UTC: 10.6S/56.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2006/12/20 12 UTC: 10.5S/53.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
36H: 2006/12/21 00 UTC: 10.4S/51.5E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
48H: 2006/12/21 12 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2006/12/22 00 UTC: 11.1S/48.1E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
72H: 2006/12/22 12 UTC: 12.3S/46.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.0+.
THE SYSTEM "BONDO" HAS RAPIDELY INTENSIFYED LAST NIGTH, WITH A BIULDING
EYE THIS MORNING (CF IMAGE WINDSAT 0154Z). DUE TO ETABLISHMENT OF A
SECOND OUTFLOW CHANEL EQUATORWARDS, AND A MOONSON FLOW BECOMING MORE
DIRECT.
SYSTEM INTENSITY HAS BEEN REANALYSED from 18 at 18utc, AND dVORAK RULES
BROKEN
IT REMAINS WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON
TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING, THEN SOUTHWESTWRADS AT THE
END OF FORCAST.

Rapid intensification! Now 85 kt, 950 hPa. – Chacor 12:21, 19 December 2006 (UTC)

JTWC has upped it to a Cat 3. 105 kt, 938 mb, and predicted to become a Cat 4 125kt in 12 hours and a Cat 5 140kt in 24 hours. – Chacor 15:10, 19 December 2006 (UTC)

Now unofficially 130kt/910mb (NRL). It's going to be a close call with the northern tip of Madagascar. Pobbie Rarr 19:32, 19 December 2006 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Bondo

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/3/20062007
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO)
-- RattleMan 20:33, 19 December 2006 (UTC)

110 knots 915 hpa (10 min avg) wonder if this strengthening will continue to upgrade to very intense tropical cyclone. - グリフオーザー 01:14, 20 December 2006 (UTC)

AT 10H00 THIS MORNING TROPICAL CYCLONE BONDO WAS CENTRED AROUND 10.4'S AND 55.1 'E, ABOUT 140 KM TO THE WEST OF AGALEGA. IT IS MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION AT 18 KM/H.

Surprisingly, Mauritius used just two sentence to talk about Bondo in their weather forecast and did not issue any warning. Though the 10-minute wind speed was just 25kt at Agalega, I think they should emphasize the cyclone more. If Bondo was 40km closer to Agalega, the situation would be terrible.Momoko 08:54, 20 December 2006 (UTC)

I think the reason for that is because it's almost out of their area into Madagascar's, at 55E. – Chacor 10:06, 20 December 2006 (UTC)

JTWC reports 150 mph winds, peaking at 160.Mitchazenia(8600+edits) 11:29, 20 December 2006 (UTC)

JTWC has Bondo at 115 knots Category 4 storm again. -- グリフオーザー 06:45, 24 December 2006 (UTC)

99P.INVEST

Newly up on FNMOC and NRL, location 12.5S 165.2E. Looks quite good. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 15:03, 16 December 2006 (UTC)

Week 4

06S.CLOVIS [05R]

90S.INVEST

5.0S, 68.2E, 15kt. -- RattleMan 09:25, 22 December 2006 (UTC)

Global Models are having this into another strong cyclone - グリフオーザー 23:02, 22 December 2006 (UTC)

JTWC 9am UTC: - グリフオーザー 18:08, 24 December 2006 (UTC)
Area of persistent convection near 5.5ºS 66.4ºE or 380 nm west-northwest of Diego Garcia. Imagery shows banding beginning to wrap into western quadrant of a developing low level circulation center. Analysis shows this disturbance is within moderate to low vertical wind shear with sustained winds of 20 to 25 knots and a center pressure of 1004 mb.

The potential of development into a tropical cyclone is poor

Looking good now. JTWC upgraded to fair. --Coredesat 00:03, 25 December 2006 (UTC)

Mauritius marine bulletin has this as a tropical disturbance, nothing from La Reunion yet. --Coredesat 01:41, 25 December 2006 (UTC)

Zone Perturbée (04-20062007)

Now an "zone of disturbed weather" from RSMC La Réunion, but "CONVECTION DOES NOT SHOW ANY ORGANIZATION" and "LLCC APPEARS NORTH-EAST OF THE CONVECTION." – Chacor 12:58, 25 December 2006 (UTC)

Perturbation Tropicale

now designed as a tropical disturbance by La Reunion RSMC. - グリフオーザー 17:15, 26 December 2006 (UTC)

TCFA. --Coredesat 00:14, 27 December 2006 (UTC)

Zone Perturbée (05-20062007)

M-F just introduced Zone of disturbed weather 05. Its co-ordinates are pretty near 90S, and they've killed 04R off. Is 90S = 05R? – Chacor 13:23, 29 December 2006 (UTC)

Since this is still being monitored as 90S, I've moved this section to the 90S.PT section and renumbered it to 05R. It's the same area of convection, but its LLCC dissipated, so it's being monitored as a new system (as you stated in IRC). --Coredesat 02:37, 30 December 2006 (UTC)

Perturbation Tropicale

10 min sustained winds 25 knots 1002 hPa -- 07:07, 30 December 2006 (UTC)

Depression Tropicale

30 knots 998 hpa and NRL has 06S.NONAME on their site. -- グリフオーザー 07:58, 31 December 2006 (UTC)

Tempête Tropicale Moderée Clovis

RSMC La Reunion report - 35 knots 992 hPa -- Teddy

Forte Tempête Tropicale Clovis

Now a 50kt Severe TS in what is an unusual 15Z update. -- RattleMan 15:36, 31 December 2006 (UTC)

60 knots 18:30pm UTC -- グリフオーザー 19:07, 31 December 2006 (UTC)

91P.INVEST

18.5S, 164.3E, 15kt, 1006mb. -- RattleMan 05:47, 23 December 2006 (UTC)

I smell an error, the NRL imagery only shows a cold front here, and the models don't pick up on anything in this area. --Coredesat 06:19, 23 December 2006 (UTC)

Yep, it was a position error. Relocated to 17.0S 165.1W. Strange error, indeed. --Coredesat 07:54, 23 December 2006 (UTC)

Nadi RSMC reports a weak depression in the marine warning -- グリフオーザー 15:46, 23 December 2006 (UTC)

Gone from NRL, "weakening depression" in RSMC Nadi marine bulletin. --Coredesat 06:46, 24 December 2006 (UTC)

gone from marine bulletin - グリフオーザー 18:09, 24 December 2006 (UTC)

92S.INVEST

FNMOC: 9S, 87.7E, 15kt. Has a false TCFA on it. -- RattleMan 02:50, 27 December 2006 (UTC)

93S.INVEST

Tropical Low (*93S)

10.0ºS 113.0ºE -- 1006 hPa

REMARKS - There has been increasing thunderstorm activity over and to the south of Indonesia and there are indications the weak tropical low as above could develop in this area. Most likely movement of the low is towards the south-southeast.

There is the possibility that the low or cyclone could be near the Pilbara coast by Wednesday. —The preceding unsigned comment was added by VOFFA (talk • contribs) 04:42, 29 December 2006 (UTC).

renamed as 95S which is at 12.9S 113.7E -- グリフオーザー 18:44, 30 December 2006 (UTC)

93S.INVEST

I think it's now on NRL. Position is iffy, but close. 9.5S, 106E, 15kt, 1006mb. -- RattleMan 09:50, 29 December 2006 (UTC)

This looks interesting. BoM predicts a HIGH potential of cyclone development on Tuesday, and a cyclone impact on Wednesday. RaNdOm26 08:33, 30 December 2006 (UTC)

94S.INVEST

9.0S 93.0E, eastern indian ocean -- グリフオーザー 03:12, 30 December 2006 (UTC)

Don't forget intensity: 15kt, 1006mb. -- RattleMan 08:49, 30 December 2006 (UTC)

07S.ISOBEL [TC01]

95S.INVEST

They just keep coming. 12.9S 113.7E, 15kt. -- RattleMan 17:27, 30 December 2006 (UTC)

High probability of development in the next 48 hours, according to BoM. --Coredesat 04:35, 31 December 2006 (UTC)

Umm, what happened to 93S.INVEST? Did it dissipate? Anyway, now, BoM calls for the low to develop to a cyclone within 24 hours. RaNdOm26 08:36, 31 December 2006 (UTC)

Intensity increased to 25 knots and pressure of 1004 hPa from BoM. RaNdOm26 08:44, 31 December 2006 (UTC)

pressure down to 1002 hPa -- グリフオーザー 19:08, 31 December 2006 (UTC)

Tropical Low

Advisories now issued from BOM -- グリフオーザー 01:38, 1 January 2007 (UTC)

This low is threatening for a landfall near Port Hedland as a Category 3. Cool graphics! RaNdOm26 09:17, 1 January 2007 (UTC)

The only reason I think this is down as system 1 is it is in the only system they are currently warning about. As far as I know it won't actually get a number unless it reaches TC strength in which case this would become 200601. --P.K. 13:03, 1 January 2007 (UTC)

TCFA. And indeed, I'm removing the number from the talk subheader since tropical lows aren't numbered, unless the TCOP says otherwise. --Coredesat 03:02, 2 January 2007 (UTC)

None of the lows are numbered in any way from BOM, I think..... Isobel is now moving very quickly southwards. RaNdOm26 07:44, 2 January 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Isobel

BOM reports formation of Tropical Cyclone Isobel with 35 knot winds. -- グリフオーザー 07:43, 2 January 2007 (UTC)

JTWC has it down as 07S. – Chacor 11:59, 2 January 2007 (UTC)