Wikipedia

Opinion polling for the 2023 Australian Indigenous Voice referendum

Opinion polling on whether to change the Australian Constitution to establish an Indigenous Voice has been conducted since 2017, when Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander leaders petitioned for such an amendment as part of the Uluru Statement from the Heart.[1] The number of these polls conducted grew substantially following Labor's victory in the 2022 federal election; the party had committed to holding the referendum required for this constitutional change in its first term of government.[2]

At least ten firms polled Australians on the proposed amendment, greater than the number who have polled party support for any previous Australian election.[2] Some firms were commissioned by media organisations, think tanks, advocacy groups or university foundations. Other firms self-initiated their polls for market research or strategic communications purposes.[2] Considering methodologies, polls were almost exclusively conducted online, with only one firm using SMS. Pollsters differed on whether to give a forced-choice question, as is done in actual Australian referendums, or allow respondents to express indecision or lack of knowledge. Some pollsters also used Likert-style questions to allow respondents to express how strong their opinion is.[2]

The Australian Constitution requires a proposed amendment to attain a double majority in the referendum – not only a majority of votes nationwide, but also a majority in at least four of the six states. Because of this requirement, the level of support in each state was of special interest.[2] One way pollsters investigated state-level support was to break down results from national polls. However, these polls sometimes did not survey enough people from each state to give reliable results about state-level support, especially for smaller states like Tasmania and South Australia. Another way pollsters investigated was by specifically surveying people from a particular state.[2]

Pollsters also often broke down their results by age, gender, and party affiliation. The last was of particular interest because bipartisan support is often considered necessary for an Australian referendum to pass, though it is not a formal requirement.[2]

The extent of support for the Voice among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians was a key point of discussion. All publicly available polling indicated absolute majorities among this group favouring the Voice. Important caveats include the small sample size associated with certain polls, the length of time elapsed since the polls were conducted, and the lack of publicly available results and methodologies for certain polls.[3]

Poll aggregations edit

External poll aggregations
  Nick Evershed and Josh Nicholas for The Guardian
  Kevin Bonham, electoral analyst[3]
  Simon Jackman, University of Sydney professor[3]
Graphical summary – binary choice
 


National poll results edit

Polls on establishing an Indigenous Voice
Date(s) Firm Sample With undecideds Binary[a] Ref.
Yes No DK Yes No
25 September–14 October 2023 Australian Electoral Commission 15,895,231 — — — 39.9% 60.1% [4]
14 October 2023 Voting day for all on-the-day voting in Australia. [5]
11–14 October 2023 Essential 1125 38% 53% 10% 42% 58% [b][6]
4–12 October 2023 Newspoll 2638 37% 57% 6% 40% 60% [c][7]
2–12 October 2023 Roy Morgan 1419 44% 51% 5% 46% 54% [d][e][9]
6–10 October 2023 YouGov 1519 38% 56% 6% 40% 60% [10]
6–9 October 2023 JWS Research 922 39% 52% 9% 43% 57% [f][11]
1–9 October 2023 DemosAU 2251 34% 54% 12% 39% 61% [b][12]
October 2023 Pollinate — 35% 47% 18% 43% 57% [13]
3–6 October 2023 Newspoll 1225 34% 58% 8% 37% 63% [14]
22 September–4 October 2023 Resolve Strategic 4728 38% 49% 13% 44% 56% [15]
2–3 October 2023 Early in-person voting begins for electors who cannot vote on the day. [16]
18 September–2 October 2023 Focaldata 4608 — — — 39% 61% [17]
27 September–1 October 2023 Essential 1125 43% 49% 8% 47% 53% [18]
25 September–1 October 2023 Roy Morgan 909 37% 46% 17% 44% 56% [19]
25–29 September 2023 YouGov 1563 38% 53% 9% 42% 58% [20]
25 September 2023 Voting begins in certain remote areas. [16]
22–24 September 2023 Freshwater Strategy 1003 33% 50% 17% 40% 60% [21]
18–24 September 2023 Roy Morgan 1511 39% 44% 17% 47% 53% [22]
18–22 September 2023 Newspoll 1239 36% 56% 8% 39% 61% [23][24]
15–22 September 2023 GIC 1283 38% 45% 17% 46% 54% [25]
13–21 September 2023 RedBridge 1500 — — — 38% 62% [26][27]
September 2023 Pollinate — 35% 44% 21% 44% 56% [28]
1–19 September 2023 DemosAU 2504 38% 54% 8% 41% 59% [29]
13–16 September 2023 Essential 1135 41% 51% 9% 45% 55% [30]
6–9 September 2023 Resolve Strategic 1604 35% 49% 16% 43% 57% [31]
2–5 September 2023 Freshwater Strategy 1761 35% 50% 15% 41% 59% [32]
30 August–4 September 2023 RedBridge 1001 — — — 39% 61% [32][33]
30 August–3 September 2023 Essential 1151 42% 48% 10% 47% 53% [34]
28 August–1 September 2023 Newspoll 1200 38% 53% 9% 42% 58% [35]
7–31 August 2023 DemosAU 2359 39% 42% 19% 48% 52% [b][12]
30 August 2023 PM Anthony Albanese announces 14 October as referendum date. [36]
16–21 August 2023 SEC Newgate 1200 — — — 46% 54% [37]
August 2023 Pollinate 1000 31% 39% 30% 44% 56% [38]
9–13 August 2023 Resolve Strategic 1603 37% 45% 18% 46% 54% [39]
2–5 August 2023 Essential 1150 43% 47% 10% 48% 52% [40]
July 2023 Scanlon Institute 7454 49% 30% 20% 62% 38% [41]
11–28 July 2023 DemosAU 2359 39% 42% 20% 48% 52% [b][12]
21–27 July 2023 RedBridge 1022 — — — 44% 56% [42]
12–15 July 2023 Resolve Strategic 1610 36% 42% 22% 48% 52% [43]
12–15 July 2023 Newspoll 1570 41% 48% 11% 46% 54% [44]
July 2023[g] Australian Labor Party 14300 48% 47% 5% 51% 49% [45]
5–9 July 2023 Essential 1125 47% 43% 10% 52% 48% [46]
4–7 July 2023 Australia Institute 1004 52% 33% 15% 61% 39% [47]
June 2023 DemosAU — 44% 39% 18% 53% 47% [b][12]
23–28 June 2023 SEC Newgate 2207 43% 34% 23% 56% 44% [48]
21–25 June 2023[h] Essential 574 46% 42% 12% 52% 48% [49]
574 — — — 56% 44%
16–24 June 2023 Newspoll 2303 43% 47% 10% 48% 52% [50]
19 June 2023 The Constitutional Amendment bill passes through the Senate. [51]
7–11 June 2023 Essential 1123 — — — 60% 40% [52][53]
5–11 June 2023[i] Resolve Strategic 1606 42% 40% 18% 49% 51% [54]
2–6 June 2023 JWS Research 1122 46% 43% 11% 51% 49% [55]
31 May–3 June 2023 Newspoll 1549 46% 43% 11% 52% 48% [56]
May 2023 DemosAU — 43% 35% 22% 55% 45% [b][12]
26–29 May 2023 Roy Morgan 1833 46% 36% 18% 56% 44% [j][57]
26 May 2023[k] Finder 1050 48% 39% 13% 55% 45% [58]
15–17 May 2023 Freshwater Strategy 1005 48% 38% 14% 55% 45% [59]
10–14 May 2023 Essential 1080 — — — 59% 41% [60][61]
10–13 May 2023 Resolve Strategic 1610 44% 39% 18% 53% 47% [62]
4–8 May 2023 Ipsos 946 — — — 60% 40% [l][63]
April 2023 DemosAU — 58% 29% 13% 66% 34% [b][12]
14–18 April 2023 Roy Morgan 1181 46% 39% 15% 54% 46% [j][64]
13–18 April 2023 SEC Newgate 1200 52% 27% 21% 66% 34% [65][66]
12–16 April 2023 Essential 1136 — — — 60% 40% [67]
12–16 April 2023 Resolve Strategic 1609 46% 31% 22% 58% 42% [68]
9–12 April 2023 Freshwater Strategy 1002 42% 34% 24% 56% 44% [69][70]
5 April 2023 The federal Liberal Party announces its opposition. [71]
29 March–1 April 2023 Newspoll 1500 53% 39% 8% 58% 42% [72]
1–21 March 2023 YouGov 15060 51% 34% 15% 60% 40% [73]
15–19 March 2023 Essential 1124 — — — 59% 41% [74][75]
12–16 March 2023 Resolve Strategic 1600 46% 32% 22% 57% 43% [76]
1–4 March 2023 Newspoll 1530 53% 38% 9% 58% 42% [77]
24–27 February 2023 JWS Research 940 51% 36% 13% 59% 41% [m][78]
15–19 February 2023 Resolve Strategic 1604 46% 32% 21% 58% 42% [79][80]
1–6 February 2023 SEC Newgate 1478 53% 22% 25% 71% 29% [81][82]
1–5 February 2023 Essential 1000 — — — 65% 35% [83]
1–4 February 2023 Newspoll 1512 56% 37% 7% 60% 40% [84][85]
December 2022–January 2023[n] Resolve Strategic 3217 47% 30% 23% 60% 40% [86]
16–18 December 2022 Freshwater Strategy 1209 50% 26% 23% 65% 35% [87]
9–12 December 2022 Roy Morgan 1499 53% 30% 17% 64% 36% [j][88]
7–11 December 2022 Essential 1075 — — — 63% 37% [89]
28 November–2 December 2022 Institute for Public Affairs 1000 38% 34% 28% 53% 47% [o][p][90]
28 November 2022 The federal National Party announces its opposition. [91]
5–10 October 2022 SEC Newgate 1207 55% 19% 25% 74% 26% [2]
7 October 2022 Compass Polling 1001 — — — 60% 40% [2]
August–September 2022[q] Resolve Strategic 3618 53% 29% 19% 64% 36% [92]
3 September 2022 Compass Polling 1006 — — — 65% 35% [2]
12–15 August 2022 JWS Research 1000 43% 24% 34% 65% 35% [r][93]
11–15 August 2022 SEC Newgate 1804 57% 19% 24% 75% 25% [2]
3–7 August 2022 Essential 1075 — — — 65% 35% [94]
30 July 2022 Albanese reveals draft amendment wording. [95]
11–24 July 2022 Scanlon Institute 5757 59% 18% 20% 77% 23% [2]
13–15 July 2022 Australia Institute 1001 65% 14% 21% 82% 18% [96]
14–17 June 2022 Australia Institute 1001 58% 16% 26% 78% 22% [96]
25–30 May 2022 Essential 1089 53% 17% 29% 76% 24% [97][2]
23–27 May 2022 SEC Newgate 1403 59% 16% 25% 79% 21% [2]
21 May 2022 Labor wins the 2022 federal election, pledging a first-term referendum. [98]
August 2021 CT Group — 57% 16% 28% 78% 22% [99]
6 July 2021 Essential 1099 66% 19% 15% 78% 22% [o][100]
9–18 February 2021 Omnipoll 1456 53% 18% 29% 75% 25% [s][101][102]
June 2020 CT Group 2000 56% 17% 27% 77% 23% [103][1]
February 2020 CT Group 2000 49% 20% 31% 71% 29% [104]
19–23 June 2019 Essential 1079 66% 21% 13% 76% 24% [o][105]
2–6 May 2019 Essential 1079 43% — — — — [o][106]
22–25 February 2018 Essential 1028 68% 21% 11% 76% 24% [o][107]
15–18 February 2018 Newspoll 1632 57% 32% 11% 64% 36% [o][1]
5–7 December 2017 Australia Institute 1417 46% 29% 24% 61% 39% [1]
3–6 November 2017 Essential 1025 45% 16% 39% 74% 26% [t][108][1]
3–10 August 2017 Omnipoll 1526 61% 30% 9% 67% 33% [1]
1–5 June 2017 Essential 1013 44% 14% 42% 76% 24% [u][109][1]
26 May 2017 In the Uluru Statement, Indigenous leaders call for a constitutional Voice. [110]
November 2016–May 2017 Cox Inall Ridgeway 5000 — — — 68% 32% [111]
Notes
  1. ^ Where possible, binary results come directly from pollsters' forced-choice questions or their own calculations. When such results are not available, a simulated result is produced simply by removing undecided voters from consideration and recalculating percentages. Simulated results are displayed in italics.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g Unpublished until post-referendum
  3. ^ Simulating a two-answer result from the 37–57–6 figure yields 39–61. The 40–60 figure is from The Australian's report on the poll.
  4. ^ Also reported without leaners: 40% yes, 46% no, 14% undecided.
  5. ^ Morgan released early results from this poll on 8 October, showing 41% yes, 45% no and 14% undecided when first prompted and 45% yes, 50% no and 5% undecided when undecideds were prompted again, which ended up as 47% yes to 53% no on a binary basis.[8]
  6. ^ Also reported without leaners: 36% yes, 48% no, 16% undecided.
  7. ^ Private poll, reported to have been conducted over two weeks in July.
  8. ^ During 21―25 June, Essential used A/B testing to trial a change to its methodology: some respondents were given a binary question, others were also permitted an "unsure" option.
  9. ^ Precise dates within this week were not reported.
  10. ^ a b c Poll was conducted via SMS.
  11. ^ Poll conducted in May but precise dates were unreported.
  12. ^ Poll only surveyed non-Indigenous Australians.
  13. ^ Also reported without leaners: 42% yes, 28% no, 30% need more information/can't say.
  14. ^ Reported as single poll, but conducted in two stages (December (1611 respondents) and 17–22 January (1606 respondents)) to obtain a larger sample size.
  15. ^ a b c d e f Poll did not characterise Voice as constitutional change.
  16. ^ Murray Goot has criticised the IPA poll for "tendentious" and "misleading" wording, suggesting it was skewed to encourage respondents to express opposition to the Voice. Because he still included the poll in his compilation, it has been included here for completeness.[2]
  17. ^ Reported as single poll, but conducted in two stages (17–21 August (2011 respondents) and 13–18 September (1607 respondents)) to obtain a larger sample size.
  18. ^ The 34% figure combines 14% undecided and 20% needing more information.
  19. ^ Also reported figures after respondents were given further information on the Voice: 51% yes, 21% no, 28% unsure.
  20. ^ Includes 28 per cent of neutral responses on top of 11 per cent of undecided responses.
  21. ^ Includes 27 per cent of neutral responses on top of 14 per cent of undecided responses.

Subpopulation results edit

Results by state edit

Polls on establishing an Indigenous Voice
Date(s) Firm Sample New South Wales Victoria Queensland Western Australia South Australia Tasmania Ref.
Y N DK Y N DK Y N DK Y N DK Y N DK Y N DK
25 September–14 October 2023 Australian Electoral Commission 15,895,231 41.0% 59.0% — 45.9% 54.1% — 31.8% 68.2% — 36.7% 63.3% — 35.8% 64.1% — 41.1% 58.9% — [4]
14 October 2023 Voting day for all in-person voting across Australia. [5]
3–12 October 2023 Newspoll 3863 41% 54% 5% 43% 51% 6% 30% 65% 5% 28% 65% 7% 33% 60% 7% 38% 55% 7% [7]
2–12 October 2023 Roy Morgan 1419 46% 49% 5% 54% 42% 4% 30% 64% 6% 44% 54% 2% 39% 51% 10% 47% 52% 1% [9]
6–9 October 2023 JWS Research 922 40% 52% 8% 44% 44% 11% 33% 56% 11% 28% 64% 7% 40% 56% 4% — — — [11]
1–9 October 2023 DemosAU 2251 — — — — — — 30% 57% 12% 30% 57% 13% — — — — — — [112]
22 September–4 October 2023 Resolve Strategic 4728 48% 52% — 46% 54% — 36% 64% — 39% 61% — 44% 56% — 56% 44% — [15]
27 September–1 October 2023 Essential 1125 42% 50% 8% 43% 45% 12% 39% 56% 4% — — — — — — — — — [18]
18–24 September 2023 Roy Morgan 1511 40% 42% 18% 46% 42% 12% 31% 49% 20% 30% 46% 24% 36% 48% 16% 56% 43% 1% [22]
13–21 September 2023 RedBridge 1500 42% 58% — 41% 59% — 32% 68% — — — — — — — — — — [27]
13–16 September 2023 Essential 1135 47% 44% 8% 45% 47% 8% 30% 60% 10% — — — — — — — — — [30]
September 2023 Fair Australia 637 — — — — — — — — — 36% 59% 5% — — — — — — [113][114]
8–9 September 2023 Painted Dog 1285 — — — — — — — — — 39% 61% — — — — — — — [115]
6–9 September 2023 Resolve Strategic 1604 44% 56% — 49% 51% — 39% 61% — 39% 61% — 41% 59% — 56% 44% — [31]
30 August–4 September 2023 RedBridge 1001 39% 61% — 45% 55% — 35% 65% — — — — — — — — — — [32][33][116]
30 August–3 September 2023 Essential 1151 45% 44% 10% 43% 44% 12% 35% 58% 8% 34% 58% 8% 37% 45% 17% — — — [34]
21 August 2023 Insightfully 1156 — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 42% 53% 5% [117]
16–21 August 2023 SEC Newgate 1200 48% 52% — 51% 49% — 37% 63% — 37% 63% — 46% 54% — — — — [37][118]
July–August 2023 Resolve Strategic 3213 46% 54% — 51% 49% — 41% 59% — 44% 56% — 46% 54% — 55% 45% — [39]
1–7 August 2023 Australia Institute 605 — — — — — — — — — — — — 43% 39% 18% — — — [119]
2–5 August 2023 Essential 1150 41% 47% 12% 47% 46% 7% 40% 51% 9% 39% 48% 13% 45% 48% 7% — — — [40]
21–27 July 2023 RedBridge 1022 44% 56% — 45% 55% — 37% 63% — — — — — — — — — — [42]
18–20 July 2023 Utting Research 1000 — — — — — — — — — 29% 58% 13% — — — — — — [120]
June–July 2023 Resolve Strategic 3216 49% 51% — 52% 48% — 42% 58% — 49% 51% — 49% 51% — 54% 46% — [43]
5–9 July 2023 Essential 1125 45% 44% 11% 48% 39% 13% 42% 50% 8% 49% 47% 4% 49% 38% 13% — — — [46]
29 June–2 July 2023 Freshwater Strategy 1065 — — — — — — 36% 50% 14% — — — — — — — — — [121]
31 May–24 June 2023 Newspoll 3852 46% 41% 13% 48% 41% 11% 40% 54% 6% 39% 52% 9% 45% 46% 9% 43% 48% 9% [50]
17–19 June 2023 Institute of Public Affairs 660 — — — — — — — — — — — — 39% 42% 19% — — — [122]
17 June 2023[a] Painted Dog 1050 — — — — — — — — — 57% 43% — — — — — — — [123]
7–11 June 2023 Essential 1123 62% 38% — 62% 38% — 57% 43% — 52% 48% — 53% 47% — — — — [60]
2–6 June 2023 JWS Research 1122 41% 47% 12% 44% 42% 14% 45% 46% 9% 61% 33% 6% 43% 42% 15% — — — [55]
May–June 2023 Resolve Strategic 3217 53% 47% — 56% 44% — 44% 56% — 49% 51% — 48% 52% — 57% 43% — [54]
26–29 May 2023 Roy Morgan 1833 48% 38% 14% 47% 32% 21% 39% 46% 15% 41% 35% 24% 47% 32% 21% 42% 26% 32% [57]
26 May 2023[a] Finder 982 48% 38% 13% 51% 35% 14% 43% 44% 13% 49% 42% 10% 43% 44% 13% — — — [58]
10–14 May 2023 Essential 1080 64% 36% — 61% 39% — 49% 51% — 52% 48% — 61% 39% — — — — [60]
14–18 April 2023 Roy Morgan 1181 46% 38% 16% 52% 31% 17% 41% 46% 13% 46% 41% 13% 39% 50% 11% 38% 33% 29% [64]
13–18 April 2023 SEC Newgate 1200 54% 26% 20% 60% 20% 20% 41% 34% 25% 43% 30% 27% — — — — — — [65]
12–16 April 2023 Essential 1136 59% 41% — 56% 44% — 55% 45% — 70% 30% — 64% 36% — — — — [60]
5 April 2023 The federal Liberal Party announces its opposition. [124]
February–April 2023 Newspoll 4756 55% 36% 9% 56% 35% 9% 49% 43% 8% 51% 41% 8% 60% 33% 7% 55% 39% 6% [72]
25–26 March 2023 Painted Dog 1052 — — — — — — — — — 54% 35% 11% — — — — — — [b][125]
1–21 March 2023 YouGov 15060 52% 32% 16% 53% 31% 16% 47% 40% 14% 48% 37% 15% 51% 34% 16% 50% 35% 15% [73]
15–19 March 2023 Essential 1124 61% 39% — 67% 33% — 49% 51% — 55% 45% — 62% 38% — — — — [60]
February–March 2023 Resolve Strategic 1600 — — — — — — 52% 48% — 52% 48% — — — — — — — [76]
24–27 February 2023 JWS Research 940 52% 32% 16% 54% 35% 11% 48% 38% 13% 50% 42% 9% 46% 38% 15% — — — [78]
1–5 February 2023 Essential 1000 63% 37% — 64% 36% — 65% 35% — 68% 32% — 62% 38% — — — — [60]
December 2022–January 2023 Resolve Strategic 3217 58% 42% — 65% 35% — 56% 44% — 61% 39% — 56% 44% — 71% 29% — [86]
14–17 January 2023 YouGov 1069 46% 30% 24% — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — [126][127]
2–6 January 2023 Painted Dog 1124 — — — — — — — — — 51% 27% 22% — — — — — — [128]
9–12 December 2022 Roy Morgan 1499 52% 29% 19% 55% 28% 17% 44% 38% 18% 63% 26% 11% 54% 33% 13% 68% 24% 8% [88]
7–11 December 2022 Essential 1075 66% 34% — 66% 34% — 56% 44% — 56% 44% — 60% 40% — — — — [60]
28 November 2022 The federal National Party announces its opposition. [91]
5–10 October 2022 SEC Newgate 1207 56% — — 60% — — 53% — — 49% — — 53% — — — — — [2]
August–September 2022 Resolve Strategic 3618 65% 35% — 64% 36% — 59% 41% — 60% 40% — 71% 29% — 73% 27% — [92]
12–15 August 2022 JWS Research 1000 43% 24% 34% 44% 17% 39% 38% 31% 31% 40% 25% 36% 40% 27% 33% — — — [93]
3–7 August 2022 Essential 1075 65% 35% — 63% 37% — 62% 38% — 75% 25% — 60% 40% — — — — [60]
30 July 2022 PM Anthony Albanese reveals draft amendment wording. [129]
11–24 July 2022 Scanlon Institute 5757 62% — — 62% — — 51% — — 59% — — 57% — — — — — [2]
13–15 July 2022 Australia Institute 1001 62% 12% 25% 71% 12% 17% 66% 11% 23% 63% 22% 15% — — — — — — [96]
14–17 June 2022 Australia Institute 1001 59% 15% 26% 57% 13% 30% 57% 21% 22% 57% 22% 21% — — — — — — [96]
21 May 2022 Labor wins the 2022 federal election, pledging a first-term referendum. [130]
9–18 February 2021 Omnipoll 1456 63% 10% 27% 67% 11% 22% 57% 16% 27% 59% 14% 28% 57% 11% 32% 74% 11% 15% [c][102]
5–7 December 2017 Australia Institute 1417 50% 28% 22% 51% 24% 25% 41% 33% 26% 36% 38% 26% 45% 26% 30% — — — [1]
3–10 August 2017 Omnipoll 1526 62% 29% 9% 63% 28% 9% 60% 33% 7% 57% 33% 11% 56% 31% 13% 44% 49% 7% [1]
26 May 2017 In the Uluru Statement, Indigenous leaders call for a constitutional Voice. [131]

Results by party affiliation edit

Date(s) Firm Sample Labor Coalition Greens One Nation Other Ref.
Y N DK Y N DK Y N DK Y N DK Y N DK
14 October 2023 Voting day for all in-person voting across Australia. [5]
2–12 October 2023 Roy Morgan 1419 72% 18% 10% 10% 81% 9% 83% 10% 7% — — — 30% 61% 9% [d][9]
6–10 October 2023 YouGov 1519 53% 40% 8% 20% 75% 3% 70% 25% 5% — — — — — — [10]
3–6 October 2023 Newspoll 1225 56% 36% 8% — — — — — — — — — — — — [14]
22 September–4 October 2023 Resolve Strategic 4728 67% 33% — 16% 84% — 80% 20% — — — — — — — [15]
18 September–2 October 2023 Focaldata 4608 55% 45% — 18% 82% — 73% 27% — 12% 88% — 24% 76% — [e][17]
25–29 September 2023 YouGov 1563 49% 41% 10% 22% 73% 5% 70% 24% 6% — — — — — — [132]
22–24 September 2023 Freshwater Strategy 1003 51% 31% 18% 20% 71% 9% — — — — — — — — — [21]
18–24 September 2023 Roy Morgan 1833 67% 18% 15% 12% 76% 12% 83% 5% 12% 2% 94% 4% 22% 62% 16% [f][133]
18–22 September 2023 Newspoll 1239 56% 36% 8% — — — — — — — — — — — — [23][24]
13–21 September 2023 RedBridge 1500 51% 49% — 19% 81% — 75% 25% — — — — 28% 72% — [134]
13–16 September 2023 Essential 1135 58% 33% 8% 26% 70% 4% 70% 20% 10% — — — 24% 71% 5% [135]
6–9 September 2023 Resolve Strategic 1604 60% 40% — 16% 84% — 78% 22% — — — — — — — [31]
30 August–4 September 2023 RedBridge 1001 57% 43% — 13% 87% — 77% 23% — — — — 20% 80% — [32][33][116]
5 September 2023 Essential 1043 61% 39% — 26% 74% — 71% 29% — — — — 18% 82% — [136]
28 August–1 September 2023 Newspoll 1200 61% 31% 8% — — — 64% 26% 10% — — — — — — [35]
2–5 August 2023 Essential 1043 58% 8% 34% 25% 68% 7% 70% 19% 11% — — — 30% 64% 6% [137]
12–15 July 2023 Resolve Strategic 1610 50% 28% 23% 17% 64% 19% 69% 12% 19% — — — 20% 58% 22% [43]
5–9 July 2023 Essential 1022 64% 26% 10% 33% 60% 7% 73% 18% 9% — — — 25% 68% 25% [46]
4–7 July 2023 Australia Institute 1004 65% 21% 14% 37% 49% 14% 74% 8% 18% 14% 78% 8% 36% 40% 24% [47]
19 June 2023 The Constitutional Amendment bill passes through the Senate. [138]
7–11 June 2023 Essential 1123 72% 28% — 43% 57% — 83% 17% — — — — 38% 62% — [52]
5–11 June 2023 Resolve Strategic 1606 56% 28% 16% 20% 63% 17% 76% 13% 11% — — — 23% 57% 20% [g][54]
31 May–3 June 2023 Newspoll 1549 63% — — — 64% — 71% — — — — — — 64% — [56]
26–29 May 2023 Roy Morgan 1833 67% 12% 21% 10% 73% 17% 90% 3% 7% 2% 86% 12% 30% 50% 20% [h][57]
10–14 May 2023 Essential 1136 71% 29% — 45% 55% — 81% 19% — — — — 41% 59% — [60]
10–13 May 2023 Resolve Strategic 1610 69% 31% — 27% 73% — 83% 17% — — — — — — — [62]
14–18 April 2023 Roy Morgan 1181 75% 14% 11% 6% 74% 20% 89% 5% 6% 7% 89% 4% 21% 50% 29% [i][139]
13–18 April 2023 SEC Newgate 1200 — — — 26% 50% 24% — — — — — — — — — [65]
12–16 April 2023 Essential 1136 76% 24% — 41% 59% — 81% 18% — — — — 45% 54% — [67]
5 April 2023 The federal Liberal Party announces its opposition. [124]
29 March–1 April 2023 Newspoll 1500 72% — — — 55% — — — — — — — — — — [72]
15–19 March 2023 Essential 1124 78% 22% — 43% 57% — 77% 23% — — — — 41% 59% — [75]
12–16 March 2023 Resolve Strategic 1600 72% 28% — 33% 67% — 86% 14% — — — — 44% 56% — [76]
1–4 March 2023 Newspoll 1530 68% 21% 11% 35% — — — — — — — — — — — [77]
1–6 February 2023 SEC Newgate 1478 65% — — 32% 43% 25% 77% — — — — — — — — [81]
1–5 February 2023 Essential 1000 77% 23% — 41% 59% — 89% 11% — — — — 52% 48% — [83]
1–4 February 2023 Newspoll 1512 74% 18% 8% 37% 59% 4% 81% 10% 9% — — — 41% 53% 6% [84]
December 2022–January 2023 Resolve Strategic 3217 61% — — 27% — — 72% — — — — — 45% — — [j][86][2]
9–12 December 2022 Roy Morgan 1499 76% 9% 15% 15% 64% 21% 89% 2% 9% 18% 71% 11% 59% 25% 16% [k][88]
7–11 December 2022 Essential 1075 75% 25% — 46% 54% — 84% 16% — — — — 51% 49% — [89][2]
28 November – 2 December 2022 Institute of Public Affairs 1000 45% 27% 28% 30% 49% 21% 57% 10% 33% 21% 50% 29% 27% 32% 41% [l][90]
28 November 2022 The federal National Party announces its opposition. [91]
5–10 October 2022 SEC Newgate 1207 64% — — 37% — — 78% — — — — — — — — [2]
7 October 2022 Compass Polling 1001 75% 25% — 45% 55% — 82% 18% — 12% 88% — 52% 48% — [m][2]
11–15 August 2022 SEC Newgate 1804 55% — — 41% — — 83% — — — — — 47% — — [2]
3–7 August 2022 Essential 1075 77% 23% — 53% 47% — 81% 19% — — — — 56% 44% — [94][2]
30 July 2022 PM Anthony Albanese reveals draft amendment wording. [129]
11–24 July 2022 Scanlon Institute 5757 70% — — 40% — — 86% — — — — — 46% — — [2]
13–15 July 2022 Australia Institute 1001 70% 8% 22% 56% 23% 21% 82% 7% 12% 59% 25% 16% 65% 7% 28% [96][2]
14–17 June 2022 Australia Institute 1001 60% 8% 23% 49% 26% 25% 71% 15% 15% 35% 28% 37% 48% 13% 39% [96][2]
25–30 May 2022 Essential 1089 66% — — 44% — — 77% — — — — — 50% — — [97][2]
23–27 May 2022 SEC Newgate 1403 69% — — 40% — — 82% — — — — — 55% — — [2]
21 May 2022 Labor wins the 2022 federal election, pledging a first-term referendum. [130]
2–6 May 2019 Essential 1079 55% — — 31% — — 65% — — — — — 37% — — [106][1]
15–18 February 2018 Newspoll 1632 76% 16% 8% 38% 48% 14% 87% 10% 3% 38% 50% 12% — — — [1]
5–7 December 2017 Australia Institute 1417 50% 26% 24% 41% 35% 24% 75% 10% 15% 23% 48% 29% 41% 28% 31% [1]
3–6 November 2017 Essential 1025 61% — — 37% 24% 39% 67% — — — — — — — — [140][1]
3–10 August 2017 Omnipoll 1526 67% 24% 9% 55% 41% 4% 80% 10% 10% — — — 45% 46% 9% [1]
1–5 June 2017 Essential 1013 51% — — — — — 74% — — — — — — — — [109][1]
26 May 2017 In the Uluru Statement, Indigenous leaders call for a constitutional Voice. [131]

Other polls edit

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians edit

Two polls surveying Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people's views on the Indigenous Voice commissioned in early 2023 by The Uluru Dialogue, a pro-Voice lobby group, were conducted online by Ipsos and YouGov. Both found broad support for the Voice: 80% in the Ipsos survey and 83% in the YouGov survey. The YouGov result compared to 51% support in the broader population. These results have been cited by Yes campaign figures, including Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, as evidence for broad Indigenous support for the Voice.[3]

The ABC conducted a review of Indigenous-specific polling in August 2023, consulting with polling experts Kevin Bonham, William Bowe, and Simon Jackman. All agreed there was nothing to suggest "anything other than broad support among First Nations Australians" and particularly endorsed the YouGov poll. Caveats included the small sample size associated with the Ipsos poll, the recency of the polls (both having been months out of date at the time of the review) and questions over whether online samples adequately represented remote Indigenous communities, although this was noted as a lesser concern given that the proportion of Indigenous people living in remote areas is often overestimated.[3]

Late in the campaign, Resolve Strategic found 59% of Indigenous Australians in support, compared to 44% support in the broader population. This was a considerable decrease from the near-80% support in the Ipsos and YouGov polls, but still represented a majority.[141] Another late poll from Focaldata found about 70% in support, but the firm urged caution in interpreting the figure because it was based on a sample of about 250 Indigenous Australians.[17]

Passing the Message Stick, a research group aiming to discover strategies for a Yes victory in the referendum, found in a telephone survey 24% of Indigenous people opposed the Voice and 42% either did not know about the referendum or had heard very little. These results was initially presented in a webinar with a limited audience (400 people), but later more widely reported. The results have been cited by No campaigners to dispute the Yes campaign's perspective of broad Indigenous support. However, the ABC excluded this survey from consideration in their review of Indigenous-specific polling, because not enough information about its results and methodologies was publicly available.[3]

The No campaign conducted three internal polls on Indigenous support from February to May 2023, though only two results were publicly released, showing a fall in support from 60% in February to 57% in May. These results compared with 59% (February) and 54% (May) support among the broader population. These polls were not publicly reported until early October. No details were provided regarding sample sizes, precise questions asked, or methodologies.[113]

Indigenous Voice polls surveying Indigenous Australians
Dates Firm Sample Yes No DK Ref.
22 September–4 October 2023 Resolve 420 59% 41% — [141]
18 September–2 October 2023 Focaldata 250 70% 30% — [17]
May 2023 No campaign — 57% — — [113]
1–21 March 2023 YouGov 732 83% 14% 4% [73][3]
February 2023 No campaign — 60% — — [113]
February 2023 Passing the Message Stick 219 — 24% — [142][3]
20–24 January 2023 Ipsos 300 80% 10% 10% [143]
November 2016–May 2017 Cox Inall Ridgeway 300 80% — — [111]

Weighted media audience surveys edit

Some media organisations have surveyed their audiences about their views, then weighted the results by various demographic factors in an attempt to make the results nationally representative.

Weighted media audience surveys on establishing an Indigenous Voice
Dates Media organisation Sample Yes No DK Ref.
22 August–4 September 2023 Australian Community Media 8600 34% 61% 5% [144]
16–26 June 2023 Australian Community Media 10131 38% 55% 7% [145]
10–21 April 2022 Australian Broadcasting Corporation 292457 73% 16% 11% [146]
10–28 April 2019 Australian Broadcasting Corporation 368097 64% 22% 14% [146]

Australian Reconciliation Barometer edit

Since 2018, Reconciliation Australia has included a question in its biennial poll, the Australian Reconciliation Barometer, on whether it is important to "protect a First Nations Body in the Constitution". Although this poll has drawn academic attention, there is some dispute over whether the data from this question is suitable for discovering public opinion on the Indigenous Voice. Francis Markham and William Sanders included the question in their analysis, taking respondents indicating importance to be expressing support for the Voice and respondents indicating unimportance, opposition.[1] Murray Goot, terming the question "quite general", did not believe it specifically referred to the Voice.[2]

Australian Reconciliation Barometer polls
Date(s) Firm Sample Important Unimportant Ref.
21 July–28 August 2022 Polity Research 2522 79% 21% [147]
1–15 July 2020 Polity Research 1988 81% 19% [148]
16–30 July 2018 Polity Research 1995 77% 23% [147]

Notes edit

  1. ^ a b Precise dates conducted were unreported.
  2. ^ Poll also provided forced-choice results: 60 Y, 40 N.
  3. ^ 2021 state figures give combined support for legislated and constitutional Voice.
  4. ^ Roy Morgan also published results for voters supporting independents (Y 38%, N 42% DK 20%).
  5. ^ Focaldata also published results for voters supporting the United Australia Party (Y 35%, N 65%) and independents (Y 30%, N 70%).
  6. ^ Roy Morgan also published results for voters supporting independents (Y 42%, N 42%, DK 16%).
  7. ^ Resolve Strategic also published results for uncommitted voters (Y 37%, N 38%, DK 25%).
  8. ^ Roy Morgan also published results for voters supporting independents (Y 49%, N 26%, DK 25%).
  9. ^ Roy Morgan also published results for voters supporting independents (Y 40%, N 32%, DK 28%).
  10. ^ Reported as single poll, but conducted in two stages (December (1611 respondents) and 17–22 January (1606 respondents)) to obtain a larger sample size.
  11. ^ Roy Morgan also published results for voters supporting independents (Y 54%, N 21%, DK 25%).
  12. ^ The Institute of Public Affairs also published results for voters supporting teal independents (Y 39%, N 33%, DK 28%).
  13. ^ Compass Polling also published results for voters supporting the United Australia Party (Y 47%, N 53%) and independents (Y 54%, N 46%).

References edit

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