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Andres David Drobny (born November 14, 1954) is an American macroeconomist and foreign exchange specialist.[1] Drobny first gained prominence as a contrarian around the time of the Maastricht Agreement in December 1991, which led to the establishment of the European single currency. Contrary to the prevailing optimism, Drobny predicted instability within the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). His warnings were validated when the ERM disintegrated nine months later, causing significant economic and currency turmoil.[2][3]
Andres David Drobny | |
|---|---|
| Born | November 14, 1954 |
| Nationality | American |
| Education | PhD, King's College, Cambridge |
| Occupation(s) | Macroeconomist, foreign exchange specialist |
| Known for | Predictions about the European Exchange Rate Mechanism collapse, Icelandic Krona Danger, 2008 Financial Crisis |
| Notable work | Real Wages & Employment: Keynes, Monetarism and the Labour Market |
Education and career
editDrobny earned a BA from Tufts University in 1976, an MSc from The London School of Economics in 1979, and a PhD from King's College, Cambridge in 1986.
Drobny began his career as a professor of Economics and Statistics at Queen Mary College, University of London in 1981. During this period, he published Real Wages & Employment: Keynes, Monetarism and the Labour Market and various academic articles. He later worked as a Research Officer at the National Institute of Social and Economic Research in London.
In 1987, Drobny joined Bankers Trust Company in London as chief economist, becoming Head of Research in 1989. He joined Credit Suisse in 1992 as a currency strategist, trader, and CS Foreign Exchange Executive Committee member.
The Drobny Conference
editDrobny founded Drobny Global Advisors in 1999, providing research for hedge funds and institutional investors. The firm evolved to include money management (Drobny Global Asset Management) and conferences (The Drobny Conference).[4][5] The research involved active dialogue among traders and portfolio managers, leading to prescient predictions like the Icelandic Krona Danger and the Crash of 2008.
Drobny's conferences gained significant attention, functioning as academic seminars where portfolio managers, traders, and analysts presented and defended their favorite trades. Notable attendees included Michael Milken, Ben Bernanke, Niall Ferguson, Peter Thiel, Larry Summers, Nicolas Taleb, and Jeffrey Sachs.
Icelandic Krona Collapse
editA 2006 conference in Reykjavik, Iceland, attracted attention due to the participation of Kaupthing Bank's chief economist, Asgeir Jonsson, who later attributed part of Iceland's economic collapse in 2008/9 to the influence of Drobny's conference and research.[6][7][8]
Larry Summers and Secular Stagnation
editIn 2013, a presentation by Larry Summers at the Santa Monica conference introduced the concept of secular stagnation, sparking widespread media coverage and scrutiny as Summers was a leading candidate for Chairman of the Federal Reserve.[9][10][11]
Publication(s)
editReal Wages and Employment: Keynes, Monetarism and the Labour Market (1988, reprinted 1991)
References
edit- ^ "Andres Drobny". scholar.google.com. Retrieved 2024-07-03.
- ^ "Andres Drobny". Drobny Global Advisors.
- ^ Drobny, Steven (2006). Inside the house of money: top hedge fund traders on profiting in the global markets. Hoboken, N.J: J. Wiley. ISBN 978-0-471-79447-9.
- ^ Vegas, John Bonaccolta/Las (2007-08-02). "Hedge Fund Confidential". TIME. Retrieved 2024-07-03.
- ^ "Foreword - The Invisible Hands: Top Hedge Fund Traders on Bubbles, Crashes, and Real Money [Book]". www.oreilly.com. Retrieved 2024-07-03.
- ^ "Drobny Guest Research" (PDF). Háskóli Íslands.
- ^ "The 2008 Icelandic Bank Collapse: Foreign Factors - A Report for the Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs". Yale School of Management.
- ^ Gissurarson, Hannes. "The 2008 Icelandic Bank Collapse: Foreign Factors". Centre for Political and Economic Research at the Social Science Research Institute.
- ^ Jon, Hilsenrath. "Summers Hedges His Doubts on Fed's Bond Buying". The Wall Street Journal.
- ^ "The Malayan tiger is officially Critically Endangered".
- ^ "Larry Summers on QE". www.ft.com. Retrieved 2024-07-08.