The 2024 Liberal Democratic Party presidential election will be held on September 2024 to elect the next president of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan for a 3-year term. The winner of the election will effectively become the Prime Minister of Japan and will lead the party in the next Japanese general election (if it takes place after the leadership election) and the next House of Councillors election in July 2025.
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The leadership election will take place amidst the LDP's controversy over its affiliation with the Unification Church new religious movement following Shinzo Abe's assassination in 2022, an ongoing slush fund scandal involving the conservative Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai (Seiwakai) and Shisuikai factions, and other issues which has led to incumbent president and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida becoming the most unpopular Prime minister since the LDP's return to power in 2012.[1][2][3]
Background edit
Former Foreign minister Fumio Kishida was elected President of the LDP in 2021 after defeating opponent Taro Kono in a second round runoff, becoming the Prime Minister on 4 October 2021.[4]
Assassination of Shinzo Abe and ties to the Unification Church edit
Following Shinzo Abe's assassination in 2022, the Unification Church new religious movement was shown to have significant political influence in the LDP, and the popularity for the party, as well as Kishida's approval rating decreased.[5] Kishida reshuffled his cabinet on 10 August 2022 in an effort to remove cabinet ministers associated with the church from the government in order to regain public trust in his government.[5][6]
Kishida reshuffled his cabinet once again on 13 September 2023 as his premiership continued to lose public support. The reshuffle was highlighted for its comparatively high proportion of women in official roles and the inclusion of members of opposing factions in high-ranking roles such as Taro Kono and Toshimitsu Motegi.[7]
Slush fund scandal edit
In November 2023, it was discovered that members of the conservative Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai (Seiwakai) and Shisuikai factions failed to report over JP¥600 million (US$4.06 million) in campaign funds, which they had instead placed in unlawful slush funds. This led to a scandal concerning the misuse of campaign funds by these members.[8][9]
Amidst the escalating scandal, Kishida declared on 13 December 2023 that he was dismissing Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yasutoshi Nishimura, Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications Junji Suzuki, and Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Ichiro Miyashita. Hiroyuki Miyazawa, the deputy minister of defense, was also removed from office. All the expelled officials belonged to the Seiwakai faction.[10][11][12] The opposition Constitutional Democratic Party submitted a vote of no confidence against Matsuno and the entire Kishida's cabinet as a result of the scandal.[13][14] Although both motions failed due to the LDP's majority in the National Diet, it was the closest no confidence vote in decades due to the rare unity between Japan's opposition parties in voting in favor of the vote.[15]
The first arrests took place on 7 January 2024, with former deputy minister of education Yoshitaki Ikeda and Kazuhiro Kakinuma, his assistant, being accused of concealing ¥48 million that the Seiwakai earned between 2018 and 2022. The National Police Agency justified their arrest by claiming that there was a chance of evidence destruction. Ikeda was expelled from the LDP after details of the arrests were made public.[16]
On 7 December 2023, Kishida announced his resignation as leader of the moderate Kōchikai faction, which he led since 2012 and announced he will leave the faction due to the scandal. A month later on 18 January 2024, Kishida announced that he was considering dissolving the faction and announced a war cabinet of the ongoing scandal.[17][18]
Candidates edit
Publicly expressed interest edit
- Fumio Kishida, incumbent Prime Minister (2021–present), Minister for Foreign Affairs (2012–2017), Member of the House of Representatives (1996–present)[19][20]
- Toshimitsu Motegi, Minister for Foreign Affairs (2019–2021), Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy (2017–2019), Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry (2012–2014), Member of the House of Representatives (1993–present)[21] (Has declared that will not run if Kishida runs for re-election)
- Sanae Takaichi, Minister of State for Economic Security (2022–present), Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications (2014–2017; 2019–2020), Member of the House of Representatives (2005–present)[22]
- Shigeru Ishiba, Member of the House of Representatives (1986–present), Minister for Overcoming Population Decline and Vitalizing Local Economy (2014-2016), Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (2008-2009), Minister of Defense (2007–2008)[23][24]
- Seiko Noda, Minister-in-charge of Measures against Declining Birthrate (2021–2022), Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications (2017–2018), Member of the House of Representatives (1993–present)[25]
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Economic Security Minister
Sanae Takaichi -
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Potential candidates edit
Based on opinion polls[26][27][28][29][30]
- Shinjirō Koizumi, Minister of the Environment (2019–2021), Member of the House of Representatives (2009–present), Son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi
- Taro Kono, Minister for Digital Transformation (2022–present), Minister for Administrative Reform and Regulatory Reform (2015–2016; 2020–2021) Minister of Defense (2019–2020), Minister for Foreign Affairs (2017–2019), Chairman of the National Public Safety Commission (2015–2016), Member of the House of Representatives (1996–present)
- Yoshihide Suga, Prime Minister (2020–2021), Chief Cabinet Secretary (2012–2020), Member of the House of Representatives (1996–present), Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications (2006–2007)
- Yōko Kamikawa, Minister for Foreign Affairs (2023–present), Minister of Justice (2014–2015; 2017–2018; 2020–2021), Member of the House of Representatives (2000–2009; 2012–present)
- Yūko Obuchi, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry (2014), Member of the House of Representatives (2000–present)
- Yoshimasa Hayashi, Chief Cabinet Secretary (2023–present), Minister for Foreign Affairs (2021–2023), Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (2017–2018), Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (2012–2014), Member of the House of Representatives (2021–present), Member of the House of Councillors (1995–2021)
- Kōichi Hagiuda, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry (2021–2022), Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (2019–2021), Member of the House of Representatives (2003–2009; 2012–present)
- Yasutoshi Nishimura, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry (2022–2023), Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy (2019–2021), Member of the House of Representatives (2003–present)
- Katsunobu Katō, Minister of Health, Labour and Welfare (2017–2018; 2019–2020; 2022–2023), Chief Cabinet Secretary (2020–2021), Minister of State for Measures for Declining Birthrate (2015–2017), Member of the House of Representatives (2003–present)
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Opinion polls edit
| Fieldwork date | Polling firm | Sample size[vague] | Shigeru Ishiba | Shinjirō Koizumi | Taro Kono | Sanae Takaichi | Yoshihide Suga | Yōko Kamikawa | Fumio Kishida | Seiko Noda | Toshimitsu Motegi | Others | NOT/ UD/NA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13–14 Apr 2024 | ANN | 1,037 | 21 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1[a] | 24 |
| 22–24 Mar 2024 | Yomiuri/NNN | 1,020 | 22 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3[b] | 23[c] |
| 16–17 Mar 2024 | ANN | 1,031 | 22 | 18 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1[d] | 21 |
| 8–11 Mar 2024 | Jiji Press | 1,160 | 18.6 | 12.1 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 2.6[e] | 40.4 |
| 9–10 Mar 2024 | Kyodo News | 1,043 | 22.2 | 15.4 | 7.9 | 8.3 | – | 10.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 3.3[f] | 24.5 |
| 24–25 Feb 2024 | ANN | 1,034 | 23 | 17 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1[g] | 34 |
| 17–18 Feb 2024 | Mainichi | 1,024 | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | – | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | – | 34 |
| 16–18 Febr 2024 | Yomiuri/NNN | 1,083 | 21 | 17 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2[h] | 12 |
| 26–28 Jan 2024 | Nikkei/TV Tokyo | 969 | 22 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6[i] | 17 |
| 8–11 Dec 2023 | Jiji Press | 2,000 | 15 | 16 | 8.8 | 5 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.6 | – | – | 1 | 40.3 |
| 18–19 Nov 2023 | Asahi | 1,086 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 8 | – | – | 7 | – | 1 | 1[j] | 36 |
| 11–12 Nov 2023 | Sankei Shimbun/FNN | N/A | 18.2 | 16 | 11.9 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.5 | – | – | 5.2 | 32.3 |
| 23–24 Sep 2023 | ANN | 1,018 | 18 | 15 | 14 | 5 | 7 | – | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3[k] | 22 |
| 1–8 Jul 2023 | Asahi | 2,113 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 10 | – | 10 | 2 | – | 3[l] | 27 |
| 3–4 Dec 2022 | JNN | 1,227 | 11 | – | 19 | 5 | 7 | – | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1[m] | 39 |
Notes edit
- ^ Another MP: 1%
- ^ Yūko Obuchi: 2%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1%
- ^ None of these: 15%
- ^ Another MP: 1%
- ^ Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1.1%; Yūko Obuchi: 0.7%; Yasutoshi Nishimura: 0.4%; Kōichi Hagiuda: 0.3%; Katsunobu Katō: 0.1%
- ^ Yoshimasa Hayashi: 0.5%; Yasutoshi Nishimura: 0.3%; Another MP: 2.5%
- ^ Yasutoshi Nishimura: 1%
- ^ Yūko Obuchi: 2%
- ^ Yoshimasa Hayashi: 3%; Yūko Obuchi: 2%; Another MP: 1%
- ^ Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1%
- ^ Yasutoshi Nishimura: 2%; Another MP: 1%
- ^ Yasutoshi Nishimura: 2%; Another MP: 1%
- ^ Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1%
References edit
- ^ "Japan is tired of Prime Minister Kishida, a man who tries too hard". Australian Financial Review. 2023-12-13. Retrieved 2024-01-17.
- ^ Reidy, Gearoid (2023-11-07). "Kishida is so unpopular, he can't even give money away". The Japan Times. Retrieved 2024-01-17.
- ^ "Kishida among most unpopular Japanese prime ministers ever, new polls show". South China Morning Post. 2023-12-18. Retrieved 2024-01-17.
- ^ "Fumio Kishida elected by Diet as Japan's new prime minister | The Asahi Shimbun: Breaking News, Japan News and Analysis". The Asahi Shimbun. Retrieved 2024-01-17.
- ^ a b "Japan PM purges Cabinet after support falls over church ties". AP News. 2022-08-11. Retrieved 2024-01-17.
- ^ "Inauguration of the Reshuffled Second Kishida Cabinet". Prime Minister's Office of Japan. Retrieved 2024-01-17.
- ^ Takahara, Kanako; Ninivaggi, Gabriele (2023-09-13). "Kishida replaces top diplomat and boosts women in Cabinet reshuffle". The Japan Times. Retrieved 2024-01-17.
- ^ "Japan's leader grilled in parliament over widening fundraising scandal, link to Unification Church". AP News. 2023-12-08. Retrieved 2024-01-17.
- ^ McCurry, Justin (2023-12-14). "Japan's ruling party engulfed by political fundraising scandal". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2024-01-17.
- ^ "Japan: Corruption scandal threatens PM Kishida's government". 2023-12-22. Retrieved 2024-01-17.
- ^ "Kishida vows to replace ministers on Thursday over fundraising scandal". Nikkei Asia. Retrieved 2024-01-17.
- ^ "Japan: Four cabinet ministers quit over fundraising scandal". 2023-12-14. Retrieved 2024-01-17.
- ^ "No-confidence motion against Japan PM Kishida rejected". Nikkei Asia. Retrieved 2024-01-17.
- ^ NEWS, KYODO. "Scandal-hit Japan spokesman faces no-confidence motion". Kyodo News+. Retrieved 2024-01-17.
- ^ "(Repeat) Japan's Kishida Cabinet Survives No-Confidence Motion - JIJI PRESS". jen.jiji.com. Retrieved 2024-01-17.
- ^ "Japanese prosecutors make their first arrest in the fundraising scandal sweeping the ruling party". AP News. 2024-01-07. Retrieved 2024-01-17.
- ^ "岸田派、政治団体を解散へ". Yahoo!ニュース (in Japanese). Retrieved 2024-01-18.
- ^ 日本放送協会 (2024-01-18). ""岸田派解散を検討" 首相が表明 政治資金パーティー問題で | NHK". NHKニュース. Retrieved 2024-01-18.
- ^ "岸田首相「自分がやめて問題解決するならいつでもやめる」発言に「何なの？この開き直り」SNSに集まる批判（SmartFLASH）". Yahoo!ニュース (in Japanese). Retrieved 2024-01-03.
- ^ "岸田首相2024年の"納豆級"粘りどこまで 9月総裁選までに待ち受ける3つの関門 解散の行方は（FNNプライムオンライン）". Yahoo!ニュース (in Japanese). Retrieved 2024-01-03.
- ^ 日本放送協会 (2023-11-02). "自民 茂木幹事長 総裁選に岸田首相立候補なら立候補しない考え | NHK". NHKニュース. Retrieved 2023-12-16.
- ^ 日本放送協会. "高市経済安保相 党内で勉強会立ち上げ "総裁選へ足場固めか"". NHK政治マガジン (in Japanese). Retrieved 2023-12-16.
- ^ INC, SANKEI DIGITAL (2024-01-02). "石破氏、自民総裁選へ「自問自答」 出馬の可能性に含み". 産経ニュース (in Japanese). Retrieved 2024-01-03.
- ^ "石破氏「総裁選はフルスペック」 自身の立候補「答えるべきでない」：朝日新聞デジタル". 朝日新聞デジタル (in Japanese). 2024-01-01. Retrieved 2024-01-03.
- ^ "野田聖子氏、総裁選の出馬に意欲". Yahoo!ニュース (in Japanese). Retrieved 2024-01-29.
- ^ "首相適任者、小泉氏16％で最多 石破・河野氏続く、岸田氏7位 時事世論調査（時事通信）". Yahoo!ニュース (in Japanese). Retrieved 2023-12-16.
- ^ "首相適任者、小泉氏１６％で最多 石破・河野氏続く、岸田氏７位—時事世論調査：時事ドットコム". 時事ドットコム (in Japanese). 15 December 2023. Retrieved 2023-12-16.
- ^ "「首相にふさわしいのは」小泉氏が16%でトップ 朝日世論調査：朝日新聞デジタル". 朝日新聞デジタル (in Japanese). 2023-11-19. Retrieved 2023-12-16.
- ^ 悠亮, 大島 (2023-12-11). "【産経・ＦＮＮ合同世論調査】次の首相は小泉氏・石破氏・河野氏の「小石河」が上位独占、上川陽子外相は５位". 産経ニュース (in Japanese). Retrieved 2023-12-16.
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