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Next National Assembly for Wales election

  (Redirected from Welsh Assembly Election, 2021)

The next National Assembly for Wales election is due to be held on Thursday 6 May 2021[1] to elect 60 members to the Welsh Assembly. It would be the sixth general election since the assembly was established in 1999.

Senedd (Welsh Parliament) election, 2021
(name change to be legislated for before next election)

← 2016 On or before 6 May 2021 2026 →

All 60 seats to the National Assembly for Wales
31 seats needed for a majority
 
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Leader Mark Drakeford Paul Davies Adam Price
Party Labour Conservative Plaid Cymru
Leader since 6 December 2018 6 September 2018 28 September 2018
Leader's seat Cardiff West Preseli Pembrokeshire Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Last election 29 seats 11 seats 12 seats
Current seats 29 11 10
Seats needed Increase2 Increase20 Increase21

 
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Leader Mark Reckless Gareth Bennett Jane Dodds
Party Brexit Party UKIP Liberal Democrats
Leader since 15 May 2019 10 August 2018 3 November 2017
Leader's seat South Wales East South Wales Central Not in Assembly
Last election New party 7 seats 1 seat
Current seats 4 2 1
Seats needed Increase26 Increase29 Increase30

Incumbent First Minister

Mark Drakeford
Labour



Six parties had AMs in the fifth Assembly: Welsh Labour led by First Minister Mark Drakeford, Welsh Conservatives led by Paul Davies, Plaid Cymru led by Adam Price, the Brexit Party led by Mark Reckless, UKIP Wales led by Gareth Bennett, and the Welsh Liberal Democrats led by Jane Dodds.

Contents

Electoral systemEdit

In elections for the National Assembly for Wales, each voter has two votes in the additional member system. The first vote is for a candidate to become the Assembly Member for the voter's constituency, elected by the first past the post system. The second vote is for a regional closed party list of candidates. Additional member seats are allocated from the lists by the D'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. The overall result is approximately proportional.

In accordance to the Wales Act 2014, a candidate is allowed to stand in both a constituency, as well as a regional list. However, holding a dual mandate with the House of Commons is illegal, meaning an Assembly Member cannot also be an MP.

Retiring AMsEdit

The following, previously incumbent AMs, will not run for re-election:

Constituency/Region Departing AM Party
Bridgend Carwyn Jones [2] Welsh Labour Party

Target seatsEdit

Below are listed all the constituencies which require a swing of less than 7.5% from the 2016 result to change hands.

Labour targetsEdit

Rank Constituency Winning party 2016 Majority Swing to gain Labour's place 2016 Result
1 Aberconwy Conservative 1,609 3.35 3rd
2 Camarthen West and South Pembrokeshire Conservative 3,373 5.75 2nd
3 Preseli Pembrokeshire Conservative 3,930 6.8 2nd
4 Rhondda Plaid Cymru 3,459 7.35 2nd

Plaid Cymru targetsEdit

Rank Constituency Winning party 2016 Majority Swing to gain PC's place 2016 Result
1 Llanelli Labour 382 0.65 2nd
2 Blaenau Gwent Labour 650 1.55 2nd
3 Aberconwy Conservative 754 1.7 2nd
4 Cardiff West Labour 1,176 1.85 2nd
5 Caerphilly Labour 1,575 2.9 2nd
6 Neath Labour 2,923 5.75 2nd

Conservative targetsEdit

Rank Constituency Winning party 2016 Majority Swing to gain Con's place 2016 Result
1 Vale of Glamorgan Labour 777 1.05 2nd
2 Vale of Clwyd Labour 768 1.55 2nd
3 Gower Labour 1,829 3.05 2nd
4 Wrexham Labour 1,325 3.25 2nd
5 Cardiff North Labour 3,667 4.9 2nd
6 Clwyd South Labour 3,016 6.8 2nd

Liberal Democrat targetsEdit

Rank Constituency Winning party 2016 Majority Swing to gain LD's place 2016 Result
1 Cardiff Central Labour 817 1.55 2nd
2 Ceredigion Plaid Cymru 2,408 4.1 2nd
3 Montgomeryshire Conservative 3,339 7.05 2nd

Constituency nominationsEdit

Opinion pollingEdit

See alsoEdit

FootnotesEdit

ReferencesEdit

  1. ^ "Wales Bill (Dates)" (PDF). publications.parliament.uk. Retrieved 7 October 2016.
  2. ^ "Wales' First Minister Carwyn Jones to leave assembly in 2021". BBC News. Retrieved 7 July 2019.
  3. ^ "Plaid Cymru pick Gwynfor Evans' grandson to contest Dwyfor Meirionnydd". BBC News. Retrieved 7 July 2019.