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2018 United States Senate election in California

The 2018 United States Senate election in California took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent California, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

2018 United States Senate election in California

← 2012 November 6, 2018 2024 →
Turnout56.42%
  Dianne Feinstein, official Senate photo 2.jpg KDL-Portrait.jpg
Candidate Dianne Feinstein Kevin de León
Party Democratic Democratic
Popular vote 6,019,422 5,093,942
Percentage 54.2% 45.8%

CA US Senate 2018.svg
County Results
Feinstein:      50–60%      60–70%
de León:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

U.S. Senator before election

Dianne Feinstein
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Dianne Feinstein
Democratic

Under California's non-partisan blanket primary law, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party. In the primary, voters may vote for any candidate, regardless of their party affiliation. In the California system, the top two finishers—regardless of party—advance to the general election in November, even if a candidate receives a majority of the votes cast in the primary election. Washington and Louisiana have similar "jungle primary" style processes for U.S. Senate elections, as does Mississippi for U.S. Senate special elections.

The candidate filing deadline was March 8, 2018 and the primary election was held on June 5, 2018.[1]

Four-term Democratic incumbent Dianne Feinstein won reelection in 2012 with 63% of the vote, taking the record for the most popular votes in any U.S. Senate election in history with 7.86 million votes.[2] Feinstein is the ranking member of the Senate Judiciary Committee. She turned 85 years old in 2018, leading some to speculate that she would retire in January 2019,[3][4] as her long-time colleague Barbara Boxer did in January 2017. However, Feinstein stood for reelection for her fifth consecutive term, winning 44.2% of the vote in the top-two primary; she faced Democratic challenger Kevin De León in the general election, who won 12.1% of the primary vote.[5] For the second time since direct elections to the Senate began after the passage of the Seventeenth Amendment in 1913, no Republican appeared on the general election ballot for U.S. Senate in California. The highest Republican finisher in the primary won only 8.3 percent of the vote, and the 10 Republicans only won 31.2 percent of the vote between them.

In the general election, Feinstein defeated De León by an eight-point margin, 54% to 46%.

CandidatesEdit

Democratic PartyEdit

DeclaredEdit

WithdrawnEdit

DeclinedEdit

Republican PartyEdit

DeclaredEdit

  • Arun K. Bhumitra, businessman[9]
  • James P. Bradley, businessman[28]
  • Jack Crew, bus driver[28]
  • Erin Cruz, published author[29]
  • Rocky De La Fuente, entrepreneur and perennial candidate[30]
  • Jerry Joseph Laws, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016[28]
  • Kevin Mottus, candidate for the U.S Senate in 2016[9]
  • Mario Nabliba, scientist[9]
  • Tom Palzer, activist, retired city planner and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016[28]
  • Paul Allen Taylor, businessman[31]

WithdrawnEdit

DeclinedEdit

Libertarian PartyEdit

DeclaredEdit

  • Derrick Michael Reid, retired attorney and engineer and candidate for President in 2016[45]

Green PartyEdit

DeclaredEdit

  • Michael V. Ziesing (write-in)[46]

Peace and Freedom PartyEdit

DeclaredEdit

  • John Thompson Parker[28]

No party preferenceEdit

DeclaredEdit

  • Colleen Shea Fernald, perennial candidate[28]
  • Tim Gildersleeve, businessman and researcher[47]
  • Rash Bihari Ghosh[28]
  • Michael Fahmy Girgis[28]
  • Don J. Grundmann, California Constitution Party chairman and perennial candidate[48] (Constitution)[a]
  • Jason M. Hanania[28]
  • David Moore (Socialist Equality)[a][49]
  • Lee W. Olson[50]
  • Ursula M. Schilling (write-in)[46]
  • Ling Ling Shi, evangelist[51]

WithdrawnEdit

NotesEdit

  1. ^ a b No ballot access: Constitution Party and Socialist Equality Party. Don J. Grundmann (C) and David Moore (SEP) appear on ballot as "No party preference".[28]

Primary electionEdit

EndorsementsEdit

Dianne Feinstein (D)
Former U.S. President
Former U.S. Vice President
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State-level officials
Local-level officials
Organizations
Newspapers
Kevin de León (D)
Individuals
  • Tom Steyer, billionaire, hedge fund manager, philanthropist, environmentalist, liberal activist, and fundraiser[82]
U.S. Representatives
State-level officials
Local-level officials
Organizations
Pat Harris (D)
Organizations
  • Tri-Valley Democratic Club
  • F.U.N Progressives
Individuals
Alison Hartson (D)
Individuals
Organizations
David Hildebrand (D)
Local-level officials
Professionals
  • Stephen Jaffe, Employment Attorney, candidate for U.S. Congress[105]
  • Michael Bracamontes, Civil Rights Attorney, former candidate for California Governor[105]
  • Stephen Seager, Mental Health Expert, Author, Documentary Filmmaker[105]
  • Kevin Murray, Professor of Politics, Humboldt State University[105]
Organizations
  • Candidates with a Contract[106]
  • Wellstone Progressive Democrats of Sacramento - Our Revolution[105]
  • Courageous Resistance of Humboldt - Our Revolution[105]
  • Our Revolution West Marin[105]
  • Yolo County Progressives - Our Revolution[105]
  • Feel the Bern Democratic Club of Los Angeles[105]
  • Labor Campaign for Single Payer[105]
  • Not Me Us - We are the Revolution[105]
  • Bernie Sanders Megagroup 2020[105]
  • Ventura County Activists for Bernie Sanders 2020 #OurRevolution[105]
  • Stanislaus County for Bernie 2020[105]
  • The People's News[105]
James Bradley (R)
Individuals
Erin Cruz (R)
Individuals
Organizations
Patrick Little (R)
Politicians
  • David Duke, white nationalist and former Louisiana State Representative[114]
Derrick Michael Reid (L)
Organizations
John Thompson Parker (PFP)
Organizations

FundraisingEdit

Campaign finance reports as of May 16, 2018
Candidate Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Dianne Feinstein (D) $9,953,612 $5,342,658 $7,035,307
Kevin de León (D) $1,135,538 $441,847 $693,689
Pat Harris (D) $703,982 $650,225 $51,017
Alison Hartson (D) $298,296 $189,652 $108,643
Arun K. Bhumitra (R) $53,668 $40,835 $12,832
David Hildebrand (D) $27,111 $25,816 $1,294
Erin Cruz (R) $26,442 $23,190 $3,251
Douglas Howard Pierce (D) $9,000 $62,392 $11,200
Paul Allen Taylor (R) $9,128 $8,803 $324
Tom Palzer (R) $0 $45 $45
David Moore (SEP) $3,480 $3,480 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[118]

PollingEdit

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
James P.
Bradley
(R)
Erin
Cruz
(R)
Pat
Harris
(D)
Rocky De
La Fuente
(R)
Kevin
de León
(D)
Dianne
Feinstein
(D)
Alison
Hartson
(D)
Patrick
Little
(R)
Other Undecided
UC Berkeley May 22−28, 2018 2,106 ± 3.5% 7% 11% 36% 21%[119] 25%
Emerson College May 21–24, 2018 600 ± 4.2% 5% 6% 4% 6% 38% 4% 6% 32%
YouGov May 12–24, 2018 1,113 ± 4.0% 6% 2% 2% 4% 11% 36% 1% 1% 14%[120] 23%
SurveyUSA May 21, 2018 678 ± 6.1% 9% 2% 2% 3% 11% 36% 1% 0% 14%[121] 21%
Public Policy Institute of California May 11–20, 2018 901 ± 4.1% 17% 41% 5% 36%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times April 18 – May 18, 2018 517 ± 4.0% 3% 1% 2% 0% 7% 31% 1% 2% 10%[122] 41%
Gravis Marketing May 4–5, 2018 525 ± 4.3% 19% 13% 8% 32% 6% 5%[123] 16%
SurveyUSA April 19–23, 2018 520 ± 5.5% 8% 8% 38% 4% 18% 6%[124] 17%
UC Berkeley April 16–22, 2018 1,738 ± 3.5% 10% 11% 28% 14%[125] 35%
Public Policy Institute of California March 4–13, 2018 1,706 ± 3.4% 16% 42% 2% 39%
Public Policy Institute of California January 21–30, 2018 1,705 ± 3.2% 17% 46% 3% 33%
UC Berkeley December 7–16, 2017 672 ± 3.8% 27% 41% 32%
Public Policy Institute of California November 10–19, 2017 1,070 ± 4.3% 21% 45% 1% 33%
Sextant Strategies & Research September 2017 1,197 ± 3.4% 15% 38% 29%[126] 17%

ResultsEdit

 
Results by county:
  Feinstein—60–70%
  Feinstein—50–60%
  Feinstein—40–50%
  Feinstein—30–40%
  Feinstein—20–30%
  Feinstein—<20%
  Feinstein/Bradley tie—<20%
Nonpartisan blanket primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Dianne Feinstein (incumbent) 2,947,035 44.12%
Democratic Kevin de León 805,446 12.07%
Republican James P. Bradley 556,252 8.34%
Republican Arun K. Bhumitra 350,815 5.26%
Republican Paul A. Taylor 323,533 4.85%
Republican Erin Cruz 267,494 4.01%
Republican Tom Palzer 205,183 3.08%
Democratic Alison Hartson 147,061 2.21%
Republican Rocky De La Fuente 135,278 2.03%
Democratic Pat Harris 126,947 1.90%
Republican John "Jack" Crew 93,806 1.41%
Republican Patrick Little 89,867 1.35%
Republican Kevin Mottus 87,646 1.31%
Republican Jerry Joseph Laws 67,140 1.01%
Libertarian Derrick Michael Reid 59,999 0.90%
Democratic Adrienne Nicole Edwards 56,172 0.84%
Democratic Douglas Howard Pierce 42,671 0.64%
Republican Mario Nabliba 39,209 0.59%
Democratic David Hildebrand 30,305 0.45%
Democratic Donnie O. Turner 30,101 0.45%
Democratic Herbert G. Peters 27,468 0.41%
No party preference David Moore 24,614 0.37%
No party preference Ling Ling Shi 23,506 0.35%
Peace and Freedom John Thompson Parker 22,825 0.34%
No party preference Lee Olson 20,393 0.31%
Democratic Gerald Plummer 18,234 0.27%
No party preference Jason M. Hanania 18,171 0.27%
No party preference Don J. Grundmann 15,125 0.23%
No party preference Colleen Shea Fernald 13,536 0.20%
No party preference Rash Bihari Ghosh 12,557 0.19%
No party preference Tim Gildersleeve 8,482 0.13%
No party preference Michael Fahmy Girgis 2,986 0.05%
Write-in 863 0.01%
Total votes 6,670,720 100%

Democratic candidates won a combined total of 4,231,444, Republican candidates 2,216,223 votes, and other candidates 223,053 votes.

General electionEdit

DebatesEdit

EndorsementsEdit

Dianne Feinstein (D)
Former Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State-level officials
Local-level officials
Organizations
Newspapers
Kevin de León (D)
Individuals
U.S. Representatives
State-level officials
Local-level officials
Organizations

FundraisingEdit

Campaign finance reports as of October 19, 2018
Candidate Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Dianne Feinstein (D) $21,100,086.64 $17,896,407.61 $4,069,222.18
Kevin de León (D) $1,572,160.70 $1,263,113.97 $309,045.58
Source: Federal Election Commission[118]

PredictionsEdit

Because of California’s top-two runoff system, the seat was guaranteed to be won/held by a Democrat since the initial primary produced two Democratic candidates.

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[135] Solid D (Feinstein) September 28, 2018
Inside Elections[136] Solid D (Feinstein) November 14, 2017
Sabato's Crystal Ball[137] Safe D (Feinstein) November 15, 2017
Daily Kos[138] Safe D (Feinstein) April 9, 2018
Fox News[139] Likely D (Feinstein)^ July 9, 2018
CNN[140] Solid D (Feinstein) July 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics[141] Safe D (Feinstein) June 27, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[142] Solid D (Feinstein) October 20, 2018

^Highest rating given

PollingEdit

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Dianne
Feinstein (D)
Kevin
de León (D)
None Other Undecided
Change Research November 2–4, 2018 1,108 42% 32%
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 47% 28% 25%
SurveyUSA November 1–2, 2018 806 ± 4.7% 50% 36% 14%
Probolsky Research October 25–30, 2018 900 ± 3.3% 41% 35% 24%
UC Berkeley October 19–25, 2018 1,339 ± 4.0% 45% 36% 19%
YouGov October 10–24, 2018 2,178 ± 3.1% 36% 29% 19% 16%
Public Policy Institute of California October 12–21, 2018 989 ± 4.2% 43% 27% 23% 8%
Emerson College October 17–19, 2018 671 ± 4.1% 41% 23% 37%
SurveyUSA October 12–14, 2018 762 ± 4.9% 40% 26% 35%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times September 17 – October 14, 2018 794 LV ± 4.0% 44% 31% 25%
980 RV ± 4.0% 41% 30% 29%
1st Tuesday Campaigns October 1–3, 2018 1,038 ± 3.0% 43% 30% 27%
Vox Populi Polling September 16–18, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 55% 45%
Public Policy Institute of California September 9–18, 2018 964 ± 4.8% 40% 29% 23% 8%
Ipsos September 5–14, 2018 1,021 ± 4.0% 44% 24% 17% 15%
Probolsky Research (R) August 29 – September 2, 2018 900 ± 5.8% 37% 29% 34%
Public Policy Institute of California July 8–17, 2018 1,020 ± 4.3% 46% 24% 20% 9%
SurveyUSA June 26–27, 2018 559 ± 5.9% 46% 24% 31%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times June 6–17, 2018 767 ± 4.0% 36% 18% 46%
Probolsky Research (R) April 16–18, 2018 900 ± 3.3% 38% 27% 35%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times October 27 – November 6, 2017 1,296 ± 4.0% 58% 31% 31% 10%
Sextant Strategies & Research September 2017 1,554 36% 17% 28% 19%

ResultsEdit

United States Senate election in California, 2018
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Dianne Feinstein (incumbent) 6,019,422 54.16% -8.36%
Democratic Kevin de León 5,093,942 45.84% N/A
Total votes 11,113,364 100% N/A
Democratic hold

The race had an undervote of around 1.3 million votes compared to the gubernatorial election, likely by Republican voters choosing neither candidate. De León won many of the same counties won by Republican gubernatorial nominee John Cox, as many voters may have expressed opposition to the incumbent senator.

Results by countyEdit

Blue represents counties won by Feinstein. Orange represents counties won by de León.[143]

County Feinstein# Feinstein% de León# de León% Total
Alameda 318,377 58.4 226,950 41.6 545,327
Alpine 267 48.8 280 51.2 547
Amador 5,835 41.4 8,244 58.6 14,079
Butte 32,418 42.9 43,108 57.1 75,526
Calaveras 7,031 40.4 10,357 59.6 17,388
Colusa 1,643 35.1 3,039 64.9 4,682
Contra Costa 222,349 58.3 158,748 41.7 381,097
Del Norte 2,590 37.8 4,254 62.2 6,844
El Dorado 33,772 46.5 38,791 53.5 72,563
Fresno 103,491 47.7 113,557 52.3 217,048
Glenn 2,341 34.8 4,388 65.2 6,729
Humboldt 21,336 44.8 26,319 55.2 47,655
Imperial 13,121 43.3 17,150 56.7 30,271
Inyo 2,344 39.9 3,532 60.1 5,876
Kern 66,628 40.0 99,981 60.0 166,609
Kings 9,599 37.9 15,748 62.1 25,347
Lake 8,142 44.1 10,317 55.9 18,459
Lassen 2,030 29.8 4,788 70.2 6,818
Los Angeles 1,565,167 57.7 1,146,044 42.3 2,711,211
Madera 13,284 41.1 19,032 58.9 32,316
Marin 80,319 65.3 42,638 34.7 122,957
Mariposa 2,749 41.1 3,939 58.9 6,688
Mendocino 15,113 49.3 15,529 50.7 30,642
Merced 23,659 45.8 27,985 54.2 51,644
Modoc 751 28.7 1,867 71.3 2,618
Mono 2,001 47.7 2,197 52.3 4,198
Monterey 56,320 52.7 50,562 47.3 106,882
Napa 27,904 54.5 23,290 45.5 51,194
Nevada 22,198 48.1 23,911 51.9 46,109
Orange 501,678 54.4 420,814 45.6 922,492
Placer 66,578 46.5 76,733 53.5 143,311
Plumas 2,815 38.9 4,428 61.1 7,243
Riverside 269,567 49.2 278,409 50.8 547,976
Sacramento 241,571 53.0 213,949 47.0 455,520
San Benito 8,607 47.9 9,371 52.1 17,978
San Bernardino 233,103 50.0 233,360 50.0 466,463
San Diego 526,628 52.9 468,564 47.1 995,192
San Francisco 226,167 64.2 125,954 35.8 352,121
San Joaquin 79,088 46.1 92,351 53.9 171,439
San Luis Obispo 53,242 49.6 54,027 50.4 107,269
San Mateo 168,679 63.0 99,136 37.0 267,815
Santa Barbara 75,274 55.1 61,217 44.9 136,491
Santa Clara 339,866 59.8 228,642 40.2 568,508
Santa Cruz 64,178 57.5 47,416 42.5 111,594
Shasta 19,397 34.9 36,227 65.1 55,624
Sierra 506 38.5 808 61.5 1,314
Siskiyou 5,772 39.3 8,930 60.7 14,702
Solano 70,174 52.9 62,506 47.1 132,680
Sonoma 108,472 56.0 85,220 44.0 193,692
Stanislaus 58,375 42.9 77,724 57.1 136,099
Sutter 10,501 42.6 14,166 57.4 24,667
Tehama 5,435 32.6 11,253 67.4 16,688
Trinity 1,746 38.1 2,838 61.9 4,584
Tulare 33,005 39.9 49,765 60.1 82,770
Tuolumne 7,783 40.8 11,271 59.2 19,054
Ventura 137,141 51.3 130,101 48.7 267,242
Yolo 35,071 51.9 32,551 48.1 67,622
Yuba 6,224 39.2 9,666 60.8 15,890
Totals 6,019,422 54.2 5,093,942 45.8 11,113,364

ReferencesEdit

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  119. ^ Paul Taylor (R) 4%, other Republicans 9%, other Democrats 6%, all other candidates 2%
  120. ^ Paul Taylor (R) with 2%; Adrienne Nicole Edwards (D), David Hildebrand (D), Herbert Peters (D), Douglas Howard Pierce (D), Arun Bhumitra (R), Jack Crew (R), Kevin Mottus (R), Mario Nabliba (R), Tom Palzer (R), Derrick Michael Reid (L), Ling Ling Shi (NPP), none of the above with 1%; all other candidates 0%
  121. ^ Arun Bhumitra (R) 4%; Jack Crew (R) 3%; Adrienne Nicole Edwards (D), Don J. Grundmann (C), Kevin Mottus (R), Tom Palzer (R), Douglas Howard Pierce (D), Derrick Michael Reid (L), and Paul Taylor (R) with 1%; Colleen Shea Fernald (NPP), Rash Ghosh (NPP), Tim Gildersleeve (NPP), Michael Fahmy Girgis (NPP), Jason Hanania (NPP), David Hildebrand (D), Jerry Laws (R), David Moore (SEP), Mario Nabliba (R), Lee W. Olson (NPP), John Thompson Parker (PFP), Herbert Peters (D), Gerald Plummer (D), Ling Ling Shi (NPP), and Donnie Turner (D) with 0%
  122. ^ Herbert Peters (D), Douglas Howard Pierce (D), Donnie Turner (D), Derrick Michael Reid (L), John Thompson Parker (PFP), Arun Bhumitra (R), Jerry Laws (R), Mario Nabliba (R), Paul Taylor (R), and David Moore (SEP) with 1%; Adrienne Nicole Edwards (D), David Hildebrand (D), Gerald Plummer (D), Jack Crew (R), Kevin Mottus (R), Tom Palzer (R), Colleen Shea Fernald (NPP), Rash Ghosh (NPP), Tim Gildersleeve (NPP), Michael Fahmy Girgis (NPP), Don J. Grundmann (C), Jason Hanania (NPP), Lee W. Olson (NPP), and Ling Ling Shi (NPP) with 0%; Other 0%; Not voting 0%
  123. ^ John Melendez* (D) 3%, David Hildebrand (D) 2%. *Withdrawn
  124. ^ John Melendez* (D) 4%, Other 2%. *Withdrawn.
  125. ^ Other Republicans 8%, Other non-Republicans 6%
  126. ^ 29% not voting
  127. ^ David Hildebrand (D) 2%; Donald Adams (R), Jerry Leon Carroll (NPP), Pat Harris (D), Richard Mead (NPP), Douglas Howard Pierce (D), Steve Stokes (D), and Michael Ziesing (G) with 1%; Clifton Roberts (H) 0%; Other 1%.
  128. ^ Pat Harris (D), David Hildebrand (D), Clifton Roberts (H), Steve Stokes (D), and Michael Ziesing (G) with 1%; Donald Adams (R), Jerry Leon Carroll (NPP), Michael Eisen (NPP), Tim Gildersleeve (NPP), Charles Junior Hodge (NPP), Richard Mead (NPP), and Douglas Howard Pierce with 0%
  129. ^ Stephen Schrader (R) 4%; Pat Harris (D), John Melendez (D), and Michael Ziesing (G) with 2%; David Hildebrand (D) and Steve Stokes (D) with 1%; Donald Adams (R), Jery Leon Carroll (NPP), Michael Eisen (NPP), Tim Gildersleeve, Charles Junior Hodge (NPP), Richard Mead (NPP), Douglas Howard Pierce (D), and Clifton Roberts (H) with 0%
  130. ^ Hart, Angela (February 26, 2018). "Republican drops out of race for California governor". Sacbee.com. Retrieved April 4, 2018.
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  132. ^ "Federal Endorsements by the NOW PAC | National Organization for Women Political Action Committees". nowpac.org. August 23, 2017.
  133. ^ California Democratic Party SNUBS Corporatist Dianne Feinstein (Video). United States: YouTube. July 21, 2018. Event occurs at 2:48. Retrieved July 14, 2019. So, in the upcoming election, vote for Kevin de León if you're in California. That's what I would do.
  134. ^ "California Democratic Party abandons incumbent Feinstein, endorses opponent". Retrieved September 4, 2018.
  135. ^ "2018 Senate Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  136. ^ "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
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  138. ^ "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
  139. ^ "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Retrieved July 10, 2018.
  140. ^ "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  141. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  142. ^ Silver, Nate. "California - 2018 Senate Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 20, 2018.
  143. ^ "Governor - Statewide Results PDF" (PDF). California Secretary of State. Retrieved January 7, 2019.

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