Tipping-point state

In United States presidential elections, the tipping-point state is the closest state that gives the winning candidate 270 or more electoral votes, thereby securing their victory in the Electoral College, when all states are arranged in order of their vote margin. The concept was first popularized by FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver.[1] FiveThirtyEight regularly predicts which state will be the tipping-point state in a given presidential election through his site's "Tipping Point Index". Past predictions of tipping-point states include either Michigan or Ohio in the 2008 election,[2] Ohio in the 2012 election,[3] and Florida in the 2016 election.[4]

Past tipping-point statesEdit

Election year State
1960 New Jersey and Missouri[5]
1964 Washington[5]
1968 Illinois and Ohio[5]
1972 Maine and Ohio[5]
1976 Wisconsin[1]
1980 Illinois[1]
1984 Michigan[1]
1988 Michigan[1]
1992 Tennessee[1]
1996 Pennsylvania[1]
2000 Florida[1]
2004 Ohio[1]
2008 Colorado[1]
2012 Colorado[1]
2016 Wisconsin (excluding two faithless electors from Texas)[6]
Pennsylvania (including two faithless electors from Texas)[6]


  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Katz, Josh (2 August 2016). "Florida Is Most Likely to Be the Election 'Tipping Point'". The New York Times. Retrieved 26 February 2019.
  2. ^ Silver, Nate (22 July 2008). "The Tipping-Point States". The New Republic. Retrieved 26 February 2019.
  3. ^ LoGiurato, Brett (11 October 2012). "Mitt Romney Is On The Verge Of A Major Electoral Map Comeback". Business Insider. Retrieved 26 February 2019.
  4. ^ Hickey, Walt (2 November 2016). "Which Tipping-Point States Favor Trump?". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 26 February 2019.
  5. ^ a b c d Silver, Nate (14 November 2016). "Will The Electoral College Doom The Democrats Again?". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 10 March 2019.
  6. ^ a b Silver, Nate (6 February 2017). "Donald Trump Had A Superior Electoral College Strategy". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 26 February 2019.