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WikiProject Earthquakes (Rated B-class, High-importance)
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/Archive 1 contains discussions pertinent to the old version (last revised 20 June 2012) prior to restructuring.

Contents

"Difficulty or impossibility" proposalEdit

We have left hanging an issue raised by Elriana (above, 02:44, 15 Feb.) about the "Difficulty or impossibility" section, that "it does not make clear to an uninitiated reader *why* predicting earthquakes is thought by some to be impossible." As I noted then, that section has been seriously hacked. In its current recent form it makes a bald assertion that "Earthquake prediction may be intrinsically impossible", makes reference to two theories without explaining what they mean, and then concludes: " However, these theories and their implication that earthquake prediction is intrinsically impossible have been disputed." I believe the effect of this on most readers is that their eyes glaze over, and they move one without the slightest understanding. I propose restoration of the "Difficulty or impossibility" section to its previous location (following the notable predictions) and extent, more or less as seen in this verision (Aug. 2014).

In its previous incarnation this section came after the notable quakes section, so that instead of lecturing to the reader that prediction of quakes is impossible, the reader is first shown that the record of earthquake prediction is disappointing. This section then addressed why that is the case, mentioning both that prediction may be impossible, or merely "fiendishly difficult". Although the latter is alluded to in the section title, in the current recent version it is not even mentioned, showing the glaring inadequacy of the present version.

Whether earthquake prediction is even possible is the most significant aspect of this topic. It warrants adequate treatment, and is a fitting conclusion to the article. ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 21:06, 22 April 2017 (UTC)

I endorse this proposal, and have brought back the section from Aug. 2014 (more or less). JerryRussell (talk) 23:50, 22 April 2017 (UTC)
Why, thank you, Jerry. I was thinking we should wait a bit in case anyone wanted to object, but there's no harm done, as this in no way impairs any discussion. I'll adjust my comments to match. ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 17:43, 23 April 2017 (UTC)
Thank you also, JJ, for restoring the sources. The article is looking better all the time. JerryRussell (talk) 21:21, 23 April 2017 (UTC)
Thanks to you both! This section makes much more sense now. I could probably still quibble with the grammar and presentation, but would like to see how the current (restored) version is received by others before contemplating any modifications.Elriana (talk) 19:53, 24 April 2017 (UTC)

Brain benderEdit

WP is not supposed to be repository for graduate students' theses. It would be nice if the average interested person could simply read this and understand the main points. BeenAroundAWhile (talk) 03:31, 30 November 2017 (UTC)

On the other hand, as writers, we need to provide clear and coherent text that summarizes appropriate sources. That has been done here. The reader needs to be responsible for being aware of the fundamentals. You wouldn't want to define plate tectonics in every earthquake article, for example. Dawnseeker2000 23:48, 30 November 2017 (UTC)

@BeenAroundAWhile: Brain bender??? Graduate student theses? Are you saying that "the average interested person" can not "simply read this and understand the main points"? Where the hell are you coming from? Well, perhaps from Talk:Richter_magnitude_scale#Recent_copy-edits, where you said: "Just try to make it simple enough for a layperson to understand ...." That is where you made a number of questionable edits. (Which I explained to you, and then reverted.)

Same thing here. On the 30th you made thirteen edits to this article. Four or five are rather trivial, hardly worth troubling about. But several of your edits are quite troubling. Let's examine them. (Your edit summary in parentheses.)

  • 01:06 (Not italicized in the source.)

> the next strong earthquake to occur in a region.

Flat out false. "next" is italicized in the source. Did you even check? Or do you just make up reasons as you go along?
  • 01:07 (→top: It is or it isn't. We shouldn't hedge )

> earthquake forecasting, which can be defined as the probabilistic assessment of general earthquake hazard.

Again false. It is not "either or", as there is more than one definition of "earthquake forecasting"; it can be defined differently. But the lede of this article is not the place to thrash out that kind of detail.
  • 01:08 (Copy edit.)

> Prediction can be further distinguished from earthquake warning systems, which upon detection of an earthquake, provide a real-time warning of seconds to neighboring regions that might be affected.

At this point in the text "earthquake prediction" has just been distinguished from earthquake forecasting. It is then further distinguished from earthquake warning systems. Which, by their nature, can give warning only on the order of seconds, not minutes, hours, or days. Furthermore, they can only warn neighboring regions, because such systems are real-time, and in the immediate area of the earthquake the quake has already happened.
  • 01:09 (→top: Meaningless. Every time period is made up of seconds.)

> provide a warning of seconds to regions that might be affected.

Bullshit. "Every time period" can also be seen as centuries, or fractions there of; so what? The normal and ordinary usage here is an implied on the order of some few seconds, distinguished from whole minutes or hours. If you failed to understand this a better corrective would be to make "on the order of" explicit. Simply removing "of seconds" leaves the sense wide open to broad, and incorrect, interpretation, and the reader vulnerable to misinterpreting the meaning.
  • 01:09 (Fix tense.)

> was had been no valid short term prediction.

Fix? The original version is a close paraphrase of the source (in Wang et al., 2006, p. 787): "there was [emphasis added] no official short-term prediction". For all that you might disagree with Wang et al.'s sense of tense I thnk we should stick with the source.
  • 03:15 (→Evaluating earthquake predictions: Simplify for the non-expert, please)
  • 03:16 (→Evaluating earthquake predictions: Doesn't make a lick o' sense.)
Two edits that tagged the following sentences with {{huh}} ("clarification needed"):

> In southern California about 6% of M≥3.0[clarification needed] earthquakes are "followed by an earthquake of larger magnitude within 5 days and 10 km."

> In central Italy 9.5% of M≥3.0 earthquakes are followed by a larger event within 48 hours and 30 km.

WTF? It seems pretty straight-forward to me. Where precisely do you have a problem? Is the use of "M" instead of "magnitude" not simple enough? Or (heaven forbid!) do you want more details? We could hyper-link those, but judging by some of your other edits you are death on "over-linking".
  • 03:19 (Needs to be written in a way that everybody can understand.)

> Added {{Confusing|reason=the article is replete with jargon comprehensible only to an expert}}

What jargon? You have not provided any specifics, nor pointed to any particular sections. From your two preceding edits it might be inferred you think that not "everybody can understand" the use of "M", "≥", and "magnitude". (Which I grant, as just one child, or one idiot, is sufficient to negate "everybody". So what?) But these are not jargon, and are in no way "comprehensible only to an expert"; they are comprehensible to many whose only expertise comes from reading a newspaper. As Dawnseeker has said: "The reader needs to be responsible for being aware of the fundamentals." (I say: some competence is required.) Even so, you have shown no instances of anything, jargon or otherwise, "comprehensible only to an expert", let alone that the article is "replete" with such instances.

For all of the above reasons (and because I am disinclined to take further time and trouble to save your trivial edits) I am going to revert the entirety of your edits, including the tag (on the basis it "did not belong when placed or was added in error"). If you want to restore the tag, fine, but be prepared to show that "the article is replete with jargon comprehensible only to an expert". ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 22:17, 2 December 2017 (UTC)

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External links modified (January 2018)Edit

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left out new method based on gravity wavesEdit

The largest earthquakes can now be detected via gravity waves. This gives relatively accurate determination just about instantly (speed of light) when measured at a suitable distance. Suitable distances far enough for the equipment to have some time to process the result before the normal earthquake arrives, but otherwise rather close. It's something like 1000 km. 97.104.70.92 (talk) 06:51, 27 January 2018 (UTC)

You are confusing earthquake prediction – which is about anticipating future earthquakes, that have not yet happened – with earthquake warning, which is about events that have already happened, but at a remote location. Also, your "can now be detected via gravity waves" is little more than "has been", with various caveats. As Susan Hough said back in November: "But much work remains before gravity signals can be considered a reliable tool in the crucial minutes after a big quake." ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 20:59, 27 January 2018 (UTC)
Return to "Earthquake prediction" page.