Wikipedia

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 2024 presidential campaign

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced his campaign for the 2024 United States presidential election on April 19, 2023.[9] An environmental lawyer,[10] writer, and member of the Kennedy family, he is known for advocating anti-vaccine misinformation[11][12][13] and public health conspiracy theories.[14] He initially ran for the Democratic Party nomination, but announced on October 9, 2023, that he would run as an independent candidate.[15]

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for President 2024
Campaign2024 U.S. presidential election
2024 Democratic primaries (until October 9, 2023)
CandidateRobert F. Kennedy Jr.
Environmental lawyer
Nicole Shanahan
Attorney and technologist
AffiliationIndependent
Democratic Party (until October 9, 2023)
AnnouncedApril 19, 2023
HeadquartersWalpole, Massachusetts[1]
Key peopleAmaryllis Fox Kennedy (campaign manager)
Dennis Kucinich (former campaign manager)[2]
Charles Eisenstein (senior advisor)[3]
John E. Sullivan (treasurer)[4]
Del Bigtree (communications director)[5]
Stefanie Spear (former communications director)[6]
ReceiptsUS$27,961,489.78[7] (February 29, 2024)
SloganDeclare Your Independence[8]
Heal the Divide
The Remedy Is Kennedy
The America That Almost Was, and yet May Be
Website
kennedy24.com

Kennedy holds a diverse mix of traditionally liberal, conservative, and libertarian views in addition to his conspiracy theories.[11][16][17][18] Kennedy has received support from independents and youth,[19] and has been noted for drawing significant support from Republican donors and Trump allies who believe he will draw enough votes to serve as a spoiler for Biden.[20] His campaign has also received strong support and praise from various tech industry executives in Silicon Valley.[21][22][23] At the same time, the reaction to his campaign from his extended family has been largely negative.[24][25]

On March 26, 2024, Kennedy announced Nicole Shanahan as his running mate.

Background

Kennedy is a member of the Kennedy family, four of whom have previously run for the United States presidency.[4][26][27] His uncle, John F. Kennedy, was elected president as a Democrat in 1960 after a successful presidential campaign. In subsequent decades, several other family members sought the Democratic Party presidential nomination, but have failed to be nominated. His father and namesake, Robert F. Kennedy, ran a campaign for the nomination in 1968, but he was assassinated before the party's nominating convention. His uncle-by-marriage, Sargent Shriver, ran for the nomination in 1976, but later withdrew from the race.[a] His uncle, Ted Kennedy, ran a campaign for the nomination in 1980, but was defeated in the primaries by then-incumbent president Jimmy Carter.

Campaign

Announcement

 
Kennedy's original presidential campaign logo

On March 3, 2023, in a speech at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, Kennedy stated that he was considering a run for president in 2024.[28] YouTube later took down a video of the speech, citing medical misinformation.[29]

On April 5, 2023, Kennedy filed his candidacy with the Federal Election Commission (FEC).[30] He formally declared his candidacy at a campaign launch event at the Park Plaza Hotel in Boston on April 19, 2023.[31][32] He chose Boston for his launch because of his family's deep political roots in the city,[33][34] and referenced in his speech that he graduated from both high school and college in Massachusetts.[35][36]

Personal security concerns

Early in his campaign, Kennedy expressed a belief that the CIA might kill him. "I gotta be careful," he said in an interview with Joe Rogan. "I'm not stupid about it and I take precautions." His comments echoed long-running conspiracy theories regarding his father and uncle's assassinations.[37]

Since then, there have been multiple potential threats to Kennedy's life during his election campaign. He had been the subject of threats from an armed man impersonating a United States marshal who was arrested at a Los Angeles campaign events.[38][39][40] Kennedy has also received threatening emails indicating intentions to harm him,[41] and an intruder attempted to unlawfully enter his Brentwood home, and managed to get over its fence and into its yard before being detained by Kennedy's personal security.[42][43][44]

The Department of Homeland Security, in consultation with a bipartisan congressional advisory committee, has denied Kennedy's requests for Secret Service protection.[45][46]

Kennedy responded by stating that: "Since the assassination of my father in 1968, candidates for president are provided Secret Service protection. But not me,” and “Our campaign’s request included a 67-page report from the world’s leading protection firm, detailing unique and well established security and safety risks aside from commonplace death threats”.[47][48][49][50] As a result, Kennedy has initiated a public petition for granting him access to Secret Service protection.[51]

Separate analyses by CNN and WJNO radio found that Kennedy had not been treated differently than other presidential candidates and had not yet met the requirements to automatically receive Secret Service protection.[52][53]

Financing

Kennedy has garnered financial backing from Republicans associated with former President Donald Trump.[54] An analysis of the June 30, 2023, campaign finance filings shows that of the individuals who contributed at or near the maximum, those with Republican histories exceeded those with Democratic histories.[55][56][57] About fifty percent of the total funds raised by American Values 2024, the super PAC that is supporting Kennedy's campaign, were contributed by Timothy Mellon, a longtime Republican mega-donor and Trump supporter.[58] Kennedy's campaign finance report also showed substantial support from people who have promoted conspiracy theories.[59] Steve Kirsch, a promoter of disinformation about COVID-19 vaccines, donated over $10,000.[59][60] Other notable donors include activist Abby Rockefeller of the Rockefeller family, billionaire Gavin de Becker, and anti-abortion advocate Mark Lee Dickson.[60][61][62][56]

Change of political affiliation

On September 29, 2023, Mediaite reported that Kennedy was reorienting his campaign to run as an independent rather than as a Democrat.[63] On October 9, 2023, he confirmed these reports by formally announcing that he would be continuing his presidential bid as an independent candidate. The announcement took place at an event held in Philadelphia.[64] In his announcement speech, Kennedy criticized the Democratic and Republican parties for functioning as a "uniparty".[65]

Prior to the switch Kennedy and his campaign manager, Dennis Kucinich, had expressed dissatisfaction with the Democratic primary election process. Considered an underdog, he often polled around the low double digits while running for the Democratic nomination,[66] and had also been losing support in polls of Democratic primary voters. By switching to independent, he would no longer run in Democratic primary elections.[63][67]

Ballot access

 
Kennedy Jr. ballot access for the 2024 presidential election, as of April 2024:   Certified for ballot (3 states, 25 electoral votes)[b]   Petition awaiting certification (5 states, 46 electoral votes)[c]   Automatic write-in (8 states, 66 electoral votes)[d]   Not on ballot

The Kennedy campaign indicated in late December 2023 that it would focus its ballot access efforts in "Arizona, California, Georgia, Illinois, Michigan, New York and Texas."[71] On December 27, 2023, the Kennedy campaign announced it had achieved ballot access for the first time in Utah,[72] which was confirmed the following day by the Salt Lake County clerk's office.[73] To help with achieving ballot access, Kennedy filed paperwork to establish two political parties: the Texas Independent Party in Texas, and the We the People Party in California, Delaware, Hawaii, Mississippi, and North Carolina. This was to take advantage of lower signature thresholds to attain ballot access, as fully independent candidates generally need more signatures to make the ballot.[74] On January 23, 2024, the campaign announced that Kennedy had collected the requisite number of signatures to qualify for the ballot in New Hampshire.[75] On April 18, 2024, the campaign announced that Kennedy would appear on the ballot in Michigan as the nominee of the Natural Law Party.[68]

Change of personnel

After Kennedy abandoned his run for the Democratic nomination in favor of an independent run, his campaign experienced turnover in a number of key positions. Campaign manager Dennis Kucinich stepped down, with Kennedy's daughter-in-law, Amaryllis Fox Kennedy taking on the leadership role.[2] In early January 2024, Del Bigtree replaced Stefanie Spear as communications director.[76][77]

Potential Libertarian candidacy

On several occasions throughout his campaign, Kennedy openly flirted with the idea of seeking the presidential nomination of the Libertarian Party.[78][79] The nomination would secure him ballot access in no fewer than 35 states.[80]

In February 2024, Kennedy delivered a speech at the Libertarian Party of California Convention, where he also participated in a forum with two Libertarian presidential candidates. He received one vote of 95 cast in a straw poll taken among the convention's attendees.[81]

The following month, chair of the Libertarian Party Angela McArdle confirmed that she was in talks with Kennedy.[82] On April 13, Kennedy said that he would not run as a Libertarian, because he did not foresee further issues with ballot access.[83]

Alleged Super PAC collaboration

American Values 2024, the Super PAC supporting Kennedy's campaign, was accused of illegally collaborating with the Kennedy campaign and violating election rules in several states. The super PAC announced plans to spend $10 million to $15 million to help Kennedy get on the ballot in key states. In January 2024 it started hiring signature-gathering vendors for this purpose.[84] In February the Democratic National Committee filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission alleging that the ballot access operation was illegal coordination with the Kennedy campaign. Super PACs are prohibited from coordinating with campaign organizations, and some states have specific guidelines that give only the campaigns authorization to collect the signatures.[85][86]

Super Bowl commercial

The 1960 Kennedy campaign ad that the super PAC's 2024 ad was based on.

On February 11, 2024, during Super Bowl LVIII, the American Values 2024 super PAC ran a 30-second television spot in support of Kennedy consisting of an edited version of a John F. Kennedy spot from his 1960 campaign. The ad used the same jingle and motif, replacing John F. Kennedy's images with those of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and replacing text that said "Vote Democratic" with "Vote Independent." It was the only campaign advertisement which aired nationally during the game and reportedly cost US$7 million. Kennedy's cousin, Bobby Shriver, criticized the advertisement for using the likeness of his mother, Eunice Kennedy Shriver, whom he believed "would be appalled by [Kennedy Jr.'s] deadly health care views." Kennedy subsequently issued an apology on Twitter, stating the ad was created without any involvement from his campaign. Kennedy's account posted the advertisement and retweeted reactions to it before the apology was made.[87][88][89]

The impetus for the ad came from Tony Lyons, co-chair of American Values 2024, and Nicole Shanahan, who provided $4 million and helped coordinate production. Shanahan is a tech entrepreneur who has donated to Democratic candidates. Lyons is president and publisher of Skyhorse Publishing, which publishes Kennedy's conspiracy theory books.[90][91]

Vice presidential selection

Attorney and philanthropist Nicole Shanahan was announced as Kennedy's running mate for vice president on March 26, 2024.[92] Following the announcement, the campaign said it would work on ballot access in 19 states where a running mate is a precondition for being on the ballot.[92]

The campaign had announced on March 12 that Kennedy had selected a running mate from a shortlist that included former U.S. Representative Tulsi Gabbard, U.S. Senator Rand Paul, professional football player Aaron Rodgers, former Minnesota governor Jesse Ventura, and entrepreneur Andrew Yang. Other potential candidates that met with Kennedy include motivational speaker Tony Robbins, television host Mike Rowe, and civil rights attorney Tricia Lindsay.[93] On March 16, Mediaite reported that Kennedy would select Shanahan, and his campaign manager confirmed she was under consideration.[94][95] Gabbard has said that Kennedy offered her the vice presidential position, but she "respectfully declined" it.[96]

Spoiler effect

In a April 5, 2024 meeting with New York Republicans, Rita Palma, the Kennedy campaign director for New York, said their top priority was to "get rid of Biden"[97] and prevent a Biden victory by getting Republican voters to vote for Kennedy to defeat their "mutual enemy" by being a spoiler and triggering a contingent election.[98] Plans included collecting signatures for Kennedy, volunteering with the Trump campaign in Pennsylvania, and voting for Kennedy for president.[97] The Kennedy campaign claimed Palma was a consultant for the campaign and not involved in electoral strategy, contradicting Palma's claims of being hired by the Kennedy campaign.[99] DNC spokesperson Matt Corridoni criticized the news, stating "RFK Jr.'s campaign isn't building a plan or a strategy to get 270 electoral votes, they're building one to help Trump return to the Oval Office."[97] Amaryllis Fox said on April 10 that the campaign had dismissed Palma.[100]

Donald Trump has said that Kennedy's candidacy is "great for MAGA, but the Communists will make it very hard for him to get on the Ballot. Expect him, and her, to be indicted any day now, probably for Environmental Fraud! He is Crooked Joe Biden’s Political Opponent, not mine. I love that he is running!" and "He is going to be taking votes from Crooked Joe Biden, which would be a great service to America."[101]

Political positions

Further information: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. § Political views

Abortion and fertility medicine

Speaking to reporters at the Iowa State Fair in August 2023, Kennedy expressed support for a national ban on abortion after the first three months. He elaborated further, "Once a child is viable, outside the womb, I think then the state has an interest in protecting the child."[102] A spokesman from his campaign later released a statement saying that Kennedy had misunderstood the question because it had been asked in a noisy and crowded exhibition hall. However, Kennedy confirmed his position: "I believe a decision to abort a child should be up to the women during the first three months of life". Asked if there should be a federal ban on abortion at 15 or 21 weeks, he said "Yes".[102]

Running mate Nicole Shanahan has been a vocal opponent of in vitro fertilization, calling it "one of the biggest lies that’s being told about women’s health today." She has instead advocated for women interested in having children to increase their exposure to sunlight, among other unconventional methods.[103]

Democracy

Speaking on Erin Burnett OutFront, Kennedy said that President Biden poses a bigger threat to democracy than does Donald Trump.[104] He acknowledged that Trump's attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election were concerning, but downplayed their severity. He added that election deniers had valid concerns and should not have been demonized. Democratic National Committee advisor Mary Beth Cahill strongly rebuked Kennedy's remarks,[104] while conservative evangelist Franklin Graham praised Kennedy for being "100% correct."[105]

A campaign fundraising email sent in April 2024 said that Edward Snowden, Julian Assange and the January 6 rioters were political activists who had been wrongly "stripped of their Constitutional liberties."[106] The email incorrectly identified Assange as an American citizen (he is an Australian citizen). As for defending the January 6 rioters, the Kennedy campaign blamed the marketing firm that handles their email communications.[106] Shortly after the marketing email was sent out and during a statement to clarify his position on the Capitol attack, Kennedy said he would appoint a special prosecutor to determine if those charged were politically prosecuted, questioned whether the riot qualified as an insurrection, and stated he was "disturbed by the weaponization of government" against Trump.[107]

Economy

At the start of his campaign, Kennedy said that his priority would be "to end the corrupt merger of state and corporate power that is threatening now to impose a new kind of corporate feudalism in our country."[31] He was strongly critical of the contemporary political economy of the United States, describing it as a "cushy socialism for the rich and this kind of brutal, merciless capitalism for the poor".[108]

Kennedy has proposed to enact policies that favor "small and medium businesses" and break up "too-big-to-fail" banks and monopolies: "When crisis strikes, bail out the homeowners, debtors, and small business owners instead."[109][110]

In an interview with The Hill's "Rising" program, Kennedy expressed support for "giving some kind of massive debt forgiveness" for student loans in order to "unleash" creative energies and "rebuild the country."[111]

Foreign policy

Kennedy has said he wants to "end the proxy wars, bombing campaigns, covert operations, coups, paramilitaries, and everything else that has become so normal most people don’t know what’s happening."[109] He says that "the Democratic Party became the party of war,” and said "I attribute that directly to President Biden."[112]

In June 2023, Kennedy stated in an interview that on broad terms he believes that U.S. foreign relations should involve significantly reducing the military presence in other nations. He specifically said the country must "start unraveling the Empire" through closing U.S. bases in different locations worldwide.[113]

China

During an appearance on Newsmax TV in June 2023, Kennedy claimed without citing any evidence that the United States and China are engaged in an arms race to develop what he described as "ethnic bioweapons" designed to attack and harm people of a specific race. He also claimed without evidence that, despite the U.S. being a signatory to the Biological Weapons Convention, the Central Intelligence Agency has continued to undertake banned bioweapons research in secret.[114]

Israel and Gaza

On December 18, 2023, in a Breaking Points interview with Krystal Ball regarding the Gaza humanitarian crisis, Kennedy criticized the Palestinian people, calling them "arguably the most pampered people by international aid organizations in the history of the world," and compared the conflict to a hypothetical scenario where "if Mexico attacked us and we built a fence, would you blame us for caging in Mexico?"[115][116] His support for Benjamin Netanyahu's leadership earned praise from rabbi and author Shmuley Boteach, as well as from hedge fund manager Bill Ackman.[117]

During a January 26, 2024, interview on WABC (AM), Kennedy stated that he was "not a fan of the Netanyahu government," but defended Israel's response to the October 7, 2023, attacks. He claimed to have "a long history of support for Palestinians" and that he is "anti-Hamas".[118]

Ukraine and Russia

Kennedy argues that there were agreements between United States and Russian (or Soviet) leaders emphasized that NATO would not expand eastwards, and the illegal invasion of Ukraine occurred because Russian security concerns were ignored by the United States.[119][120] He has described Russia's conduct with regards to the Minsk Agreements as "acting in good faith."[121] His son, Conor, is fighting in the conflict as a member of the Ukrainian International Legion.[122]

Kennedy has blamed the war on alleged U.S. engineering of the 2014 Revolution of Dignity;[123] wrongfully stating the war has cost the U.S. $8 trillion,[124] blamed Ukrainian President Zelensky for "provoking" Russia, claimed Ukraine had allowed the U.S. to place nuclear-capable Aegis missile launchers along Ukraine’s 1,200-mile border with Russia,[125] and pushed the Ukraine bioweapons conspiracy theory.[126]

Kennedy believes that the administration of President Joe Biden in large part caused the 2022 invasion of Ukraine by Russia due to reckless and militant action; he has specifically cited the issue of NATO expansion into Eastern Europe. At the same time, he has clarified that he refuses to connect this criticism with anything considered support of the government of Russia under Putin, particularly given Kennedy's opposition to the regime's beliefs and politics. He has remarked that "Putin is a monster" and also labeled the leader "a thug" as well as "a gangster".[113]

Gun rights and school shootings

Kennedy has stated "I'm not going to take people's guns away and I believe in gun control myself."[127][109] He has explained his position by saying "I'm a constitutional absolutist. We can argue about whether the Second Amendment was intended to protect guns. That argument has now been settled by the Supreme Court."[128] However, Kennedy has also stated that he would sign a bill banning assault weapons if it passed congress.[129]

Kennedy has strongly suggested that antidepressants and other psychiatric drugs are to blame for school shootings. He has contended that "there's a tremendous circumstantial evidence SSRIs and benzos and other drugs are doing this." At the same time he acknowledged that there is no data to support this claim, and promised to research the subject himself. He said however that "prior to the introduction of Prozac, we had almost none of these events in our country."[130] Experts say that there is no evidence for a connection between psychiatric drugs and school shootings and point out that only a minority of school shooters were prescribed drugs.[131]

Health care coverage

In contrast to a Medicare for All system favored by many Democratic politicians, Kennedy has stated that his "highest ambition would be to have a single-payer program ... where people who want to have private programs can go ahead and do that but to have a single program that is available to everybody." He has also conceded that such a system would probably be "politically unrealistic." He also opposes the prospect of nationalizing the pharmaceutical industry or providing a public option for pharmaceuticals, and instead emphasizes the need to prevent regulatory capture.[132]

Kennedy has said he wants to make existing services available to all, including "alternative and holistic therapies that have been marginalized in a pharma-dominated system."[109]

Immigration

Kennedy has criticized the Biden administration's immigration policies, particularly regarding the management of the Mexico–United States border. He has called for stronger enforcement of immigration laws at the border, and the prevention of "noncitizen criminals" from crossing into the United States.[133] In January 2024, Kennedy vocalized his support for Texas governor Greg Abbott in his ongoing dispute with the federal government over jurisdiction to handle immigration issues in Texas.[134]

Law enforcement

Kennedy has vowed to "transform the police." He is in favor of training police officers in de-escalation tactics, mediation skills, and said, "We will incentivize them to prevent violence, not make unnecessary arrests." Additionally, he announced that he would appoint an attorney general who is tough on alleged police misconduct and hate crimes.[135]

LGBT issues

Kennedy has long supported the legalization of gay marriage.[136] He has stated that transgender people deserve respect, that he is opposed to "mean-spirited" legislation and that he supports peoples' "gender choices".[137][109] However, he is against transgender women participating in women's sports, and has supported the LGBT chemicals conspiracy theory.[138][139][140]

In a book review of The Real Anthony Fauci, psychiatrist Theodore Dalrymple observes that Kennedy often dismisses the widespread scientific consensus that HIV causes AIDS.[141][142] Kennedy continues to repeat long-debunked theories that the disease is caused by a "gay lifestyle" and the use of poppers and injectable drugs.[143]

Donald Trump

In April 2023, Vice reported that Roger Stone and others had promoted the idea of a Trump-Kennedy ticket,[144] but Kennedy indicated that he would not join such a ticket, asserting that both Trump's and Biden's policies had failed.[145] In January 2024 Kennedy confirmed that Trump's team had reached out to him about possibly serving as vice-president. He said he would not accept if offered again.[146]

Kennedy opposed the decision of the Colorado Supreme Court to disqualify former President Donald Trump from the ballot in the state Republican primary, arguing that the move deprived voters of their right to choose.[147][148]

Vaccination and COVID-19

Kennedy is active in the anti-vaccine movement[30][33] and has espoused the pseudoscientific claim that vaccines cause autism,[149][150] contrary to the overwhelming scientific consensus that vaccines are safe and effective.[151] He is the founder and chairman of the anti-vaccine disinformation organization Children's Health Defense, which is known for promoting conspiracy theories and quackery.[152][153] He has previously aligned himself with the studies of Mark Geier, a former physician whose license was revoked for administering chemical castration medications to autism spectrum disorder patients.[150]

During the COVID-19 pandemic, he promoted the debunked claim that hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin were effective treatments for the virus,[154] and multiple conspiracy theories related to COVID including false claims that both Anthony Fauci and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation were trying to profit off a vaccine,[155][156][157] and suggesting that Bill Gates would cut off access to money of people who do not get vaccinated, allowing them to starve.[158]

Antisemitic and racist remarks

Before announcing his bid for the presidency, Kennedy compared President Biden's COVID-19 vaccination policies to the Holocaust at a rally in Washington, DC.[159] He asserted that Anne Frank and Jews in Nazi Germany had more freedom than American citizens amid vaccine mandates in churches and schools, and business closures.[160] His Nazi analogy was condemned by both the Auschwitz-Birkenau State Museum and his wife, Cheryl Hines.[161][162] He later apologized, while alleging that his remarks were taken out of context.[159][163]

According to a New York Post report published in July 2023, Kennedy said at a dinner party that "COVID-19 is targeted to attack Caucasians and black people. The people who are most immune are Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese" and said that "We don't know whether it was deliberately targeted [like] that or not, but there are papers out there that show the racial and ethnic differential." Kennedy responded to the report by calling it "mistaken", said that "I have never, ever suggested that the COVID-19 virus was targeted to spare Jews", and said that he "never implied that the ethnic effect was deliberately engineered." He said that he was instead expressing his belief that the United States and other governments were developing "ethnically targeted bioweapons", citing a 2021 study on the genetic susceptibility of COVID-19 as proof that these types of bioweapons could be engineered. He contended that the dinner party was off the record, a claim that has been disputed by the event organizer.

Marianne Williamson, another candidate for the 2024 Democratic nomination who is also Jewish, condemned his comments. The Anti-Defamation League, the Stop Asian Hate Project, and Kennedy's sister and nephew, have also condemned his comments.[164][165][166][167] Later in July, Kennedy said that he "should've been more careful about what I said", but continued to deny allegations of racism and antisemitism, saying that "In my entire life, I have never uttered a phrase that was either racist or antisemitic. … I've fought more ferociously for Israel than anybody, and I am being censored here."[168]

Kennedy's campaign was criticized for homophobic remarks posted by his Black voter engagement director Angela Stanton King against Black Conservative Federation founder Diante Johnson. King claimed Johnson was "an open flaming Feminine closet Gay" in an April 10 post on X, further adding "How is he gonna lead heterosexual black men to the Republican Party?" Politico reported the comments continued "a pattern of behavior from Kennedy’s consultants that has drawn negative attention and forced the campaign to respond," and that it could turn off voters and donors.[169]

Public reception

Further information: Opinion polling for the 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries

Kennedy has consistently polled between the mid-10s and low-20s.[170] Time reported in May 2023 that individuals who favor Kennedy span political lines: "A YouGov poll found RFK Jr. enjoying a 48% favorability rating overall and 49% among Republicans; it doesn't stretch the imagination to assume the Kennedy brand and nostalgia are doing a lot of the work there [whereas] Biden stands at 47% in that poll overall but lagging with anemic 16% favorability among Republicans."[171] A later poll conducted by YouGov between June 10 and 13, 2023 among 1,500 U.S. citizens, and released by The Economist showed that Kennedy was viewed favorably by 49 percent of respondents, giving him the highest net favorability rating of plus 19 percent, meaning that he was viewed unfavorably by 30 percent. In comparison, President Biden and former President Trump each had the second-highest percentage of respondents viewing them favorably, with 44 percent saying so. Biden had a minus 9 percent net favorability rating, while Trump had a minus 10 percent net favorability rating.[172][173][174]

In a Harvard Center For American Political Studies-Harris poll conducted between November 15 to 16, 2023 with 2851 participants, Kennedy held the most positive approval of all the present day public political figures it asked about, with 52 percent of respondents viewing him favorably, whereas only 27 percent held an unfavorable opinion. This gave Kennedy a net favorability rating of plus 25 percent, compared to Joe Biden at minus 2 percent and Trump at plus 7 percent.[175][176][177]

Although third party and independent candidates rarely perform as strongly in elections as they do in polling,[178] a Quinnipiac University Polling Institute survey between Kennedy, Biden, and Trump released on November 1, 2023, indicated that Kennedy would win 22 percent of the vote if the 2024 presidential election were held then,[19][179] including a plurality of independents.[180][181]

In an opinion poll conducted by the Siena College Research Institute, and released on November 7, 2023, in six battleground states, Kennedy gained 24% of the total vote, compared to Biden at 33%, and Trump at 35%. Among voters under 45 in those six states, Kennedy polled at 32%, ahead of Biden at 30% and Trump at 29%. 18% of Democrats, and 16% of Republicans said that they would back Kennedy. However, 39% of independents said that they would back Kennedy, compared to 28% for Biden and 25% for Trump.[182][183][184]

A FiveThirtyEight analysis of past presidential elections found that third party support tends to decline the closer it is to a presidential election.[185]

As of April 12, 2024, an average of 116 opinion polls gave Kennedy 8.1% of the votes, Joe Biden 40.6% of the votes, and Donald Trump 42.1% of the votes.[186]

Opposition from the Kennedy family

The reaction to Kennedy's campaign from his extended family has been largely negative.[187] His sister Kerry Kennedy told Business Insider, "I love my brother Bobby, but I do not share or endorse his opinions on many issues, including the COVID pandemic, vaccinations and the role of social media platforms in policing false information."[187]

Several family members also oppose his candidacy due to his anti-vaccine views, and have publicly announced their support for Joe Biden's reelection bid.[188][189] Biden has been endorsed by Caroline Kennedy, Joe Kennedy III, and Victoria Reggie Kennedy (all of whom serve in his administration as U.S. ambassadors).[190] Caroline's son, Jack Schlossberg, called Kennedy's campaign an "embarrassment" and a "vanity project".[25] Other family members, such as Patrick J. Kennedy and Rory Kennedy, have also endorsed Biden.[24]

On St. Patrick’s Day 2024, President Joe Biden took a group photograph together with 32 members of the Kennedy family who all support Biden's candidacy. Four of Kennedy's siblings wrote a letter together which read "The decision of our brother Bobby to run as a third-party candidate against Joe Biden is dangerous to our country...Bobby might share the same name as our father, but he does not share the same values, vision or judgment...We denounce his candidacy and believe it to be perilous for our country." His cousin, Stephen Kennedy Smith, also stated "This is a mistake we can not afford as a country...when RFK Jr. decided to run he didn’t call me to ask for help because he knew I would oppose his candidacy due to his misguided stands on issues, his poor judgement, and tenuous relationship with the truth." DNC spokesperson Matt Corridoni said that "It’s telling that the people who know RFK Jr. best are standing with Joe Biden in this election."[191][192][193][194]

Opposition from former environmental colleagues

In full-page advertisements sponsored by the group’s political arm, Kennedy’s former colleagues at the Natural Resources Defense Council, including four NRDC former presidents, called his campaign a "vanity candidacy" that is "only about spreading misinformation and growing his brand. He can’t win." They urged him to drop out for the sake of the environment.[195][196]

Support from Republicans

Kennedy's campaign has been noted for drawing significant support from Republican donors and Trump allies who believe he will draw enough votes to serve as a spoiler for Biden. Kennedy's campaign has received significantly more money from donors who previously supported Trump than Biden. On April 10, 2024, The New York Times reported that Timothy Mellon was the largest single donor to Kennedy's super PAC, giving $20 million over the past year and $15 million to Trump's super PAC MAGA Inc.[20]

In April, 2023, CBS News reported that former Donald Trump advisor Steve Bannon "had been encouraging Kennedy to run for months", believing he could serve as a "useful chaos agent" and promote opposition to vaccines.[197] Kennedy has denied any involvement with Bannon and referred to the allegation as a "baseless lie".[198][199] Other right-wing personalities who have encouraged his campaign include Mike Flynn, Alex Jones, and Roger Stone. Some of which have speculated that he could become Trump's running mate in the 2024 campaign as part of a unity ticket if he loses the Democratic primary. Since embarking on an independent campaign, Kennedy has adamantly denied this prospect.[200][199][201][202][203]

Former Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush speechwriter Douglas MacKinnon wrote in a May 2023 opinion piece in The Hill that he believed Kennedy would ultimately be the 2024 Democratic nominee, asserting that he was "still not convinced President Joe Biden will actually run for reelection".[204][e] Other conservative commentators such as Eric Bolling, Charlie Kirk, and Greta Van Susteren have also praised his campaign.[199][206][207] After Tucker Carlson was fired from Fox News, Kennedy defended him as "breathtakingly courageous" and blamed his termination on the pharmaceutical industry, believing it was in retaliation for an episode of Tucker Carlson Tonight where he had lauded Kennedy's stance on vaccines.[208] In return, Carlson asserted that "There's never been a candidate for president the media hated more than Robert F. Kennedy Jr." and said that Kennedy is "winning".[209]

Endorsements

Kennedy appeared on the All-In Podcast, hosted by venture capitalists Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, David Friedberg, and David O. Sacks.[210][211] Sacks later co-endorsed Kennedy and Republican Ron DeSantis.[212] A report by Axios found that the Kennedy and DeSantis campaigns shared many of the same wealthy Wall Street donors.[213][214] DeSantis himself has suggested that as president, he would consider appointing Kennedy to lead either the Centers for Disease Control or the Food and Drug Administration.[215]

Campaign endorsements as an independent
Governors
Local officials
Notable individuals
Political parties
Campaign endorsements as a Democrat
Federal executive officials
U.S. representatives
Governors
Local officials
Notable individuals

Notes

  1. ^ Shriver was also the last-minute Democratic nominee for vice president in 1972, replacing Thomas Eagleton.
  2. ^ Kennedy on ballot states:
  3. ^ States awaiting certification:
  4. ^ Automatic write-in states:
  5. ^ Biden formally announced his reelection bid a month before MacKinnon's piece was published.[205]

References

  1. ^ "FEC Form 2 Statement of Candidacy". April 5, 2023. Retrieved October 9, 2023.
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External links

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