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Queensland state election, 2017

The 2017 Queensland state election was held on 25 November 2017 to elect all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly of Queensland, the unicameral Parliament of Queensland.[1][2]

Queensland state election, 2017

← 2015 25 November 2017 2020  →

All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland
47 Assembly seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls

  First party Second party
  Annastacia Palaszczuk 2016.jpg Tim Nicholls CEO Sleepout 2011.jpg
Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk Tim Nicholls
Party Labor Liberal National
Leader since 28 March 2012 (2012-03-28) 6 May 2016 (2016-05-06)
Leader's seat Inala Clayfield
Last election 44 seats 42 seats
Seats won 48 seats 39 seats
Seat change Increase 4 Decrease 3
Popular vote 957,890 911,019
Percentage 35.43% 33.69%
Swing Decrease2.05 Decrease7.63
TPP 51.2% 48.8%
TPP swing Increase0.1% Decrease0.1%

  Third party Fourth party
  Robbie Katter headshot.png Steve Dickson 2014 (cropped).jpg
Leader Robbie Katter Steve Dickson
Party Katter's Australian One Nation
Leader since 2 February 2015 (2015-02-02) 23 January 2017 (2017-01-23)
Leader's seat Traeger Buderim (lost seat)
Last election 2 seats 0 seats
Seats won 3 seats 1 seat
Seat change Increase 1 Steady 0
Popular vote 62,613 371,193
Percentage 2.32% 13.73%
Swing Increase0.39 Increase12.81

  Fifth party
  Michael Berkman MP.jpg
Leader Michael Berkman
Party Greens
Leader since 25 November 2017 (2017-11-25)
Leader's seat Maiwar (won seat)
Last election 0 seats
Seats won 1 seat
Seat change Increase 1
Popular vote 270,263
Percentage 10.00%
Swing Increase1.57

2017 Queensland state election map.svg
Results in each electoral district.

Premier before election

Annastacia Palaszczuk
Labor

Elected Premier

Annastacia Palaszczuk
Labor

The first-term incumbent Labor government, led by Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk, won a second term in government. They were challenged by the Liberal National opposition, led by Opposition Leader Tim Nicholls and minor parties One Nation, Katter's Australian Party and the Greens.

The 2015 election outcome had delivered a hung parliament with 44 seats to the Labor opposition, 42 seats to the one-term Liberal National government, and three to the crossbench including two to Katter's Australian Party. Just one seat short of majority government, Labor was able to form minority government with confidence and supply support from sole independent MP Peter Wellington, while retaining the right to otherwise vote on conscience. During the parliamentary term, Labor MPs Billy Gordon and Rob Pyne became independent MPs, however they both indicated they would provide confidence and supply support for the government.[3][4]

Amendments to electoral laws increased the number of seats by four from 89 to 93 and changed the optional preferential voting system to compulsory full-preferential voting.[5] A successful 2016 referendum also replaced the state's unfixed maximum three-year terms with fixed four-year terms, but these will not apply until the 2020 election.[6][7]

The day after the election, ABC election analyst Antony Green predicted that Labor would win up to 48 seats and was likely to form government in its own right.[8] By 6 December, several news agencies reported that Labor had successfully won a majority of seats in the Parliament.[9][10][11]

With the redistribution increasing the size of parliament from 89 seats to 93 seats, Labor increased its representation by a net seven seats to a total of 48 seats, an increase of four since the last election and a notional increase of one since the redistribution, allowing it to form government in its own right by two seats. The Liberal National opposition decreased their representation by a net three seats to a total of 39 seats, a decrease of two seats since the last election and a notional decrease of five since the redistribution. On the crossbench, Katter's Australian Party won three seats, an increase of one since the last election and a notional increase of two since the redistribution, one new independent candidate won a seat while all the incumbent independents lost their seats. One Nation won its first seat since 2009 and the Greens won a seat at a state election for the first time.[12]

On 8 December 2017, Opposition Leader Tim Nicholls conceded defeat and announced he would step down as leader of the party.[13] Later that day, Palaszczuk visited Government House and was invited to form a majority government by the Governor.[14] The Second Palaszczuk Ministry was subsequently sworn in by the Governor on 12 December 2017.[15]

This marked the ninth time in the last ten elections that Queensland Labor has won government; it won eight consecutive election victories from 1989 to 2009, and was only out of government from 1996 to 1998 when Labor lost its parliamentary majority as well as from 2012 to 2015 following the Liberal National Party's 2012 landslide win.

Contents

ResultsEdit

Queensland state election, 25 November 2017[16][11]
Legislative Assembly
<< 2015

Enrolled voters 3,229,536
Votes cast 2,826,613 Turnout 87.52 −2.37
Informal votes 122,672 Informal 4.34 +2.23
Summary of votes by party
Party Primary votes % Swing Seats Change
  Labor 957,890 35.43 –2.05 48 +4
  Liberal National 911,019 33.69 –7.63 39 −3
  One Nation 371,193 13.73 +12.81 1 +1
  Greens 270,263 10.00 +1.57 1 +1
  Katter's Australian 62,613 2.32 +0.39 3 +1
  Consumer Rights 7,167 0.27 +0.27 0 ±0
  Independent 123,796 4.58 +0.95 1 ±0
Total 2,703,941     93  
Two-party-preferred
  Labor 51.2 +0.1
  Liberal National 48.8 −0.1

Independent: Sandy Bolton (Noosa)

Seats changing handsEdit

Seat Pre-election Swing Post-election [17]
Party Member Margin* Margin Member Party
Aspley   Liberal National Tracy Davis 3.2 4.3 1.2 Bart Mellish Labor  
Buderim   One Nation Steve Dickson 11.8 (LNP) −0.4 11.4 Brent Mickelberg Liberal National  
Bundaberg Labor Leanne Donaldson 0.5 4.7 4.2 David Batt Liberal National  
Cairns   Independent Rob Pyne 7.5 (ALP) −4.1 3.4 Michael Healy Labor  
Cook   Independent Billy Gordon 6.8 (ALP) −0.9 5.8 Cynthia Lui Labor  
Gaven   Liberal National Sid Cramp 2.8 3.5 0.7 Meaghan Scanlon Labor  
Hinchinbrook   Liberal National Andrew Cripps 3.4 11.0 7.6 Nick Dametto Katter
Maiwar   Liberal National Scott Emerson 3.0 4.6 1.6 Michael Berkman Greens
Mirani   Labor Jim Pearce 3.8 8.0 4.2 Stephen Andrew One Nation  
Nicklin   Independent Peter Wellington N/A N/A 5.3 Marty Hunt Liberal National  
Noosa   Liberal National Glen Elmes 6.6 18.4 11.5 Sandy Bolton Independent  
Pumicestone   Independent Rick Williams 0.1 (LNP) 0.9 1.0 Simone Wilson Liberal National  
Redlands   Liberal National Matt McEachan 1.2 4.3 3.1 Kim Richards Labor  
1 Steve Dickson won the seat of Buderim in 2009 as a LNP member, but quit in January 2017 to sit as a One Nation member.
2 Rob Pyne won the seat of Cairns in 2015 as a Labor member, but quit in March 2016 to sit as an independent.
3 Billy Gordon won the seat of Cook in 2015 as a Labor member, but was expelled from the party in March 2015 and sat as an independent.
4 Rick Williams won the seat of Pumicestone in 2015 as a Labor member, but resigned following his dis-endorsement in October 2017.
* Notional margins were calculated by the ABC's election analyst Antony Green. Members listed in italics retired at this election.

The seats of Burdekin, Mansfield, and Mount Ommaney were won by the LNP at the 2015 election, but redistributions in 2016 made them notionally Labor seats.

Seat 2015 Election 2016 Redistribution Swing 2017 Election
Party Member Margin Party Member Margin* Margin Member Party
Burdekin   Liberal National Dale Last 2.9   Labor Notional 1.4 −2.2 0.8 Dale Last Liberal National  
Mansfield   Liberal National Ian Walker 5.5 Labor Notional 0.8 0.8 1.6 Corrine McMillan Labor
Mount Ommaney   Liberal National Tarnya Smith 0.2 Labor Notional 1.0 4.8 5.8 Jess Pugh Labor
* Notional margins were calculated by the ABC's election analyst Antony Green.

The 2017 election saw the ALP continue its Queensland general election streak of successes, which it had managed since 1989, with the notable exception of the 2012 LNP landslide. Katter's Australia Party, by winning a third seat in Hinchinbrook, achieved its largest swag of seats, since its inception in 2011. The Greens party recorded its highest vote in a Queensland state election, polling double figures (10.0%) for the first time and winning its first Queensland seat at an election, Maiwar (they had previously held Indooroopilly when Labor MP Ronan Lee defected to the Greens in 2008). One Nation polled a significant 13.7% of the vote and won its first seat in almost 9 years. However the party lost its state leader, Steve Dickson (Buderim), and its tally of a single seat fell well below expectations. The election gave the LNP the least cause to rejoice: it performed very poorly in South-East Queensland as well as in the north of the state; the party suffered a 7.6% general swing against it, and when combined with the negative 8.3% swing from the previous election, the LNP has suffered a 16% swing against it in less than 6 years; the party's overall seat tally also fell from the last election (from 42 to 39 seats), despite the increase in the size of the new parliament from 89 to 93 seats; LNP leader, Tim Nicholls suffered a 4.8% personal swing against him in his own seat of Clayfield, and indicated he would stand down as LNP leader, two weeks after the election.

MilestonesEdit

This election resulted in a number of historical milestones being achieved for the representation in the Queensland Parliament. These include:

Political donationsEdit

Prior to the election, the Shooting Industry Foundation of Australia used $550,000 to launch an advertising campaign, named Flick’em, in an effort to urge voters to put both major parties last in ballot paper preferences. This campaign boosted votes for Pauline Hanson's One Nation and the Katter's Australian Party and achieved lowest major party votes in QLD history.[22]

BackgroundEdit

Previous electionEdit

At the 2015 election, Labor won 44 seats, the most of all parties, but short by one of commanding a majority in the Legislative Assembly. The Liberal National Party, despite winning a record majority of 78 at the previous election, won 42 seats. Katter's Australian Party won two seats, and the independent member for Nicklin, Wellington, retained his seat.[23]

Wellington gave confidence and supply support to Labor to form government, giving it the majority of 45 out of 89 seats in parliament, and consequently the previous Liberal National government under the leadership of Campbell Newman, who lost his seat of Ashgrove, lost office after one term.

Calling of electionEdit

After Labor's retraction of endorsement for MP Rick Williams on 27 October 2017, the party's seat count dropped to 41, equalling that of the LNP. Several media sources reported that Premier Palaszczuk would call a snap election.[24][25] On 29 October Palaszczuk asked the Acting Governor Catherine Holmes to dissolve parliament and a writ was issued for a 25 November state election.[26][27]

Pre-election pendulumEdit

Following the 2015 election, Cook MP Billy Gordon was expelled from the Labor Party. He was later joined on the crossbench by two other Labor MPs, Rob Pyne (Cairns) and Rick Williams (Pumicestone). LNP MP Steve Dickson also joined the crossbench following his defection to One Nation. The final seat tally at dissolution was 41 Labor, 41 LNP, 2 KAP, 1 PHON and 4 IND.

RedistributionEdit

With the expansion of the Assembly from 89 to 93 seats, a redistribution of district boundaries was finalised on 26 May 2017.[28]

A number of seats were renamed, either to reflect boundary changes or to honour distinguished Queenslanders: Ashgrove became Cooper, Beaudesert became Scenic Rim, Brisbane Central became McConnel, Cleveland became Oodgeroo, Indooroopilly became Maiwar, Kallangur became Kurwongbah, Mount Isa became Traeger, Sunnybank became Toohey, and Yeerongpilly became Miller.[29]

The LNP-held seat of Albert, the KAP-held seat of Dalrymple and the Labor-held seat of Mount Coot-tha were abolished, while a number of new seats were created: Bancroft (notionally Labor); Bonney (notionally LNP); Hill (notionally KAP); Jordan (notionally Labor); Macalister (notionally Labor); Ninderry (notionally LNP); and Theodore (notionally LNP). Additionally, the LNP-held seats of Mansfield and Mount Ommaney became notionally Labor, while the Labor-held seat of Pumicestone became notionally LNP.[29]

Antony Green calculated a notional seat tally of 47 Labor, 44 LNP, 1 KAP and 1 independent under the new boundaries.[29]

Voting methodEdit

Having used optional preferential voting since 1992,[30] in 2016 the Queensland Parliament reintroduced compulsory preferential voting, which requires voters to allocate preferences to all candidates running in their single-member electorate.[5] The election was conducted by the Electoral Commission of Queensland, an independent body answerable to Parliament.

Queensland had a maximum parliamentary term of three years, measured from the deadline set for the return of the electoral writs, but as a result of the 2016 term length referendum Queensland will have fixed four-year terms from 2020 onwards. The previous state election was held on 31 January 2015.

DateEdit

Following the successful 2016 referendum to introduce four-year fixed-term elections, this was the last Queensland election where the date of the election could be chosen at the serving Premier's discretion.[31]

Section 84 of the Electoral Act 1992 states that an election must be held on a Saturday, and that the election campaign must run for a minimum of 26 or a maximum of 56 days following the issue of the writs including the day the writ drops and polling day. Five to seven days following the issue of the writs, the electoral roll is closed, which gives voters a final opportunity to enrol or to notify the Electoral Commission of Queensland of any changes in their place of residence.[32]

The Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015,[33] which amends the Constitution of Queensland to provide for state elections on the fourth Saturday in October every four years, does not come into effect until the next election. Therefore, this is the last election to which section 2 of the Constitution Act Amendment Act 1890 applies before its repeal.[34] It provides that the Legislative Assembly continues for no more than three years from the day set for the return of writs for the previous election, after which time the Legislative Assembly expires.[35]

The day set for the return of writs for the 2015 election was 16 February 2015, but the deadline appointed in the writ for its return was Wednesday 11 March 2015.[6][36] The Electoral Act requires the Governor to issue writs for a general election no more than four days after the Legislative Assembly is dissolved or expires.[32]:§78(2) The last possible day for the next election was therefore a Saturday not more than 56 days beyond four days after the expiry of the Legislative Assembly on 11 March 2018, namely 5 May 2018.[6][31]

Palaszczuk faced constant media questions during 2017 about whether she would call an early election.[31][37] She stated that it was her intention to hold it in 2018, and that it would take something "extraordinary" for it to be held in 2017. Following Agriculture Minister Bill Byrne's resignation on health grounds and the disendorsement of Pumicestone MP Rick Williams,[38] on Sunday 29 October 2017, she announced the election would be held on 25 November 2017.[39] Pauline Hanson described this as a "cowardly" move, given that she was overseas on a federal parliamentary trip and would be delayed in starting her One Nation party's campaign.[39]

Because the election was held in 2017, it means that the fixed date for the next state election will be 31 October 2020.[6] Had it been held in 2018, the next fixed election date would have been 30 October 2021.[6]

Key datesEdit

Date Event
29 October 2017 Writ of election issued by the Acting Governor[40]
3 November 2017 Close of electoral rolls
7 November 2017 Close of nominations
25 November 2017 Polling day, between the hours of 8 am and 6 pm
5 December 2017 Cut off for the return of postal ballot papers
8 December 2017 Election results declared and writ returned
12 December 2017 Second Palaszczuk Ministry sworn in
13 February 2018 56th Parliament convened

Contesting partiesEdit

The ALP's Queensland branch and the LNP are two of six parties registered with the Electoral Commission of Queensland by October 2017, alongside the Queensland Greens, the Queensland division of Pauline Hanson's One Nation, Katter's Australian Party, and Civil Liberties, Consumer Rights, No-Tolls.[41] Queensland's two-party dominance was threatened by the resurgence of One Nation, given former LNP MP Steve Dickson's defection to become One Nation's state leader in January 2017 and the high-profile candidacy of recently-disqualified Senator Malcolm Roberts,[42] and the record strength of the Greens in several urban seats bolstered by Brisbane's first Green councillor Jonathan Sri being elected in 2016.[43]

PreferencesEdit

The ALP and The Greens pledged to place One Nation candidates last on their respective party How-To-Vote cards. Both parties also placed each other ahead of the LNP on their cards. Katter's Australia Party exchanged preferences with One Nation in the seats they both contested. The LNP placed Greens candidates below ALP candidates, and placed One Nation candidates ahead of the ALP in 52 of the 61 seats One Nation was contesting, the exceptions being in Buderim, Logan, Mudgeeraba, Nicklin, Coomera, Scenic Rim, Stretton, Toohey and Thuringowa. One Nation, with a few notable exceptions, placed all ALP and LNP sitting MPs last. One Nation also made an agreement with Katter's Australia Party, not to challenge the two sitting KAP MPs in their respective seats.

Retiring MPsEdit

The following Members of the Queensland Legislative Assembly have announced their intention to not contest the 2017 state election:

LaborEdit

Liberal National PartyEdit

IndependentEdit

Opinion pollingEdit

Several research, media and polling firms conduct opinion polls during the parliamentary term and prior to the state election in relation to voting. Most firms use the flow of preferences at the previous election to determine the two-party-preferred vote; others ask respondents to nominate preferences.

Legislative Assembly polling
Date Firm Primary vote TPP vote
ALP LNP Green ON Other ALP LNP
21–24 November 2017 Newspoll[51] 36% 34% 10% 13% 7% 52.5% 47.5%
24 November 2017 Galaxy[52] 37% 35% 9% 12% 7% 52% 48%
20 November 2017 ReachTEL[53] 34% 30% 10% 17% 9% 51% 49%
13 November 2017 ReachTEL[54] 30.4% 30.8% 8.1% 16.4% 48% 52%
1–2 November 2017 Galaxy[55] 35% 32% 9% 18% 6% 52% 48%
17 October 2017 Newspoll[56] 37% 34% 8% 16% 5% 52% 48%
28 September 2017 ReachTEL[57] 32.1% 30.6% 7.5% 18.1% 7.7% 48% 52%
July–Sep 2017 Newspoll[58] 37% 34% 8% 15% 6% 53% 47%
2–3 August 2017 Galaxy[59] 35% 36% 7% 15% 7% 51% 49%
June 2017 ReachTEL[60] 31.9% 35.3% 9.4% 17% 6.4% 49% 51%
26–27 April 2017 Galaxy[61] 36% 34% 7% 17% 6% 52% 48%
February 2017 ReachTEL[62] 30.9% 33.2% 7% 21.3% 7.6% 47% 53%
February 2017 Galaxy[62] 31% 33% 8% 23% 5% 51% 49%
November 2016 Galaxy[63] 35% 37% 8% 16% 4% 51% 49%
October 2016 Roy Morgan[64] 35.5% 33.5% 12% 10.5% 8.5% 52% 48%
August 2016 Roy Morgan[65] 36.5% 38.5% 9.5% 8.5% 7% 50% 50%
May–June 2016 Newspoll[66] 38% 40% 51% 49%
May 2016 Morgan[67] 35.5% 40.5% 10.5% 13.5% 50% 50%
10–11 May 2016 Galaxy[68] 36% 44% 9% 11% 48% 52%
26 April 2016 ReachTEL[69] 36.9% 42.8% 10.8% 9.5% 48% 52%
March 2016 Roy Morgan[70] 37.5% 40% 12.5% 9.5% 52% 48%
10–11 February 2016 Galaxy[71] 37% 43% 9% 11% 48% 52%
Jan–Feb 2016 Roy Morgan[72] 36.5% 45.5% 9% 9% 48% 52%
December 2015 Newspoll[73] 41% 39% 8% 12% 52% 48%
17–18 November 2015 Galaxy[71] 42% 37% 9% 12% 49% 51%
16 October 2015 Morgan[74] 34.5% 42% 11.5% 12% 49% 51%
Sep 2015 Newspoll[75] 41% 38% 9% 12% 53% 47%
28–31 Aug 2015 Morgan[76] 38.5% 41.5% 12% 8% 52% 48%
19–20 Aug 2015 Galaxy[77] 40% 39% 10% 11% 52% 48%
19–21 Jun 2015 Morgan[78] 39.5% 42% 9.5% 9% 51.5% 48.5%
22–24 May 2015 Morgan[79] 34% 44% 11% 1% 48% 52%
22 May 2015 ReachTEL[80] 37.6% 45.6% 9.4% 7.4% 48% 52%
19–20 May 2015 Galaxy[81] 40% 39% 9% 12% 52% 47%
10–12 Apr 2015 Morgan[82] 40% 40.5% 9.5% 10% 52.5% 47.5%
8–9 Apr 2015 Galaxy[81] 39% 42% 7% 12% 50% 50%
31 January 2015 election 37.5% 41.3% 8.4% 0.9% 12.8% 51.1% 48.9%
26–29 Jan 2015 Newspoll[83] 37% 41% 6% 14% 48% 52%
9–26 Jan 2015 Essential[84] 38% 39% 7% 16% 50% 50%
16–18 Jan 2015 Morgan[85] 37% 39.5% 10% 13.5% 49.5% 50.5%

See alsoEdit

ReferencesEdit

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