Passer rating

  (Redirected from QB rating)

Passer rating (also known as quarterback rating, QB rating, or passing efficiency in college football) is a measure of the performance of passers, primarily quarterbacks, in gridiron football.[1] There are two formulas currently in use: one used by both the National Football League (NFL) and Canadian Football League (CFL), and the other used in NCAA football. Passer rating is calculated using a player's passing attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. Passer rating in the NFL is on a scale from 0 to 158.3. Passing efficiency in college football is on a scale from −731.6 to 1261.6.

Since 1973, passer rating has been the official formula used by the NFL to determine its passing leader.[2]

HistoryEdit

Before the development of the passer rating, the NFL struggled with how to crown a passing leader. In the mid-1930s, it was the quarterback with the most passing yardage. From 1938 to 1940, it was the quarterback with the highest completion percentage. In 1941, a system was created that ranked the league's quarterbacks relative to their peers' performance. Over the next thirty years the criteria used to crown a passing leader changed several times, but the ranking system made it impossible to determine a quarterback's rank until all the other quarterbacks were done playing that week, or to compare quarterback performances across multiple seasons. In 1971, NFL commissioner Pete Rozelle asked the league's statistical committee to develop a better system.[3] The committee was headed by Don Smith of the Pro Football Hall of Fame, Seymour Siwoff of the Elias Sports Bureau, and NFL executive Don Weiss. Smith and Siwoff established passing performance standards based on data from all qualified pro football passers between 1960 and 1970, and used those data to create the passer rating. The formula was adopted by the NFL in 1973.[2]

NFL and CFL formulaEdit

The NFL passer rating formula includes five variables: pass attempts, completions, passing yards, touchdown passes, and interceptions. Each of those variables is scaled to a value between 0 and 2.375, with 1.0 being statistically average (based on league data between 1960–1970). When the formula was first created, a 66.7 rating indicated an average performance, and a 100+ rating indicated an excellent performance.[3] However, passing performance has improved steadily since then and in 2017 the league average rating was 88.6,[4] and by 2020 it was 93.6.[5]

The four separate calculations can be expressed in the following equations:


 

 

 

 

where

ATT = Number of passing attempts
COMP = Number of completions
YDS = Passing yards
TD = Touchdown passes
INT = Interceptions

If the result of any calculation is greater than 2.375, it is set to 2.375. If the result is a negative number, it is set to zero.

Then, the above calculations are used to complete the passer rating:

 

A perfect passer rating (158.33) requires at least:[1] A minimum rating (0.0) requires at best:

77.5% completion percentage (31 completions in 40 attempts)
12.5 yards per attempt
11.875% TD/ATT (1 TD/8.421ATT)
No interceptions

30.0% completion percentage
3.0 yards per attempt
No touchdowns
9.5% INT/ATT (1INT/10.526ATT)

NCAA formulaEdit

The NCAA passing efficiency formula is similar to that of the NFL passer rating, but does not impose limits on the four components:[6]

 

where

ATT = Number of passing attempts
COMP = Number of completions
YDS = Passing yards
TDP = Touchdown passes
INT = Interceptions

The NCAA passer rating has an upper limit of 1,261.6 (every attempt is a 99-yard completion for a touchdown), and a lower limit of −731.6 (every attempt is completed, but results in a 99-yard loss). A passer who throws only interceptions will have a −200 rating, as would a passer who only throws completed passes losing an average of 35.714 yards.

AdvantagesEdit

In 2011, Sports Illustrated published an article by Kerry Byrne of Cold Hard Football Facts highlighting the importance of passer rating in determining a team's success.[7] "Put most simply," the article states, "you cannot be a smart football analyst and dismiss passer rating. In fact, it's impossible to look at the incredible correlation of victory to passer rating and then dismiss it. You might as well dismiss the score of a game when determining a winner. [...] Few, if any, are more indicative of wins and losses than passer rating. Teams that posted a higher passer rating went 203–53 (.793) in 2010 and an incredible 151–29 (.839) after Week 5." Byrne made an expanded defense of the passer rating and its importance for the Pro Football Researchers Association in 2012.[8] The study showed that all of the eight teams since 1940 that led the league in both offensive passer rating and defensive passer rating won championships.[9]

FlawsEdit

The biggest criticism of passer rating is that it is too simple, and that it fails to take into account more the full scope of a quarterback’s contributions to the team's performance: for example, the equation does not take into account a quarterback’s rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, sacks, or fumbles, and also favors quarterbacks that are efficient over effective.[10]

Pro Football Focus writer Nathan Jahnke provides a good example of this phenomenon in the following scenario of two different quarterbacks:

If Quarterback A completes three passes for three yards in a row, they would have a passer rating of 79.17.

Meanwhile, if Quarterback B throws three straight passes, with the first two falling incomplete and the third being caught for a 30-yard gain, they would have a passer rating of 71.53.[11]

While Quarterback A has a higher completion rate and is more efficient than Quarterback B, they have failed to gain 10 yards on the drive and reward their team with a first down. On the other hand, while Quarterback B wasn't necessarily efficient in their passing, they were able to make a completion of 30 yards on their third pass, thus giving their offense a first down and a significantly improved field position (likely on their opponent's half of the field).

Due to various rule changes since 1978 that have favored NFL offenses, such as changes to penalties for roughing the passer, an increase in the number of games (from 14 when passer rating was created to 16 in 1978 and 17 in 2021), and teams opting to pass more than ever, almost all of the passer rating leaders are quarterbacks from the past two decades.

Since 1943, there have been 125 quarterbacks who have finished a season with a passer rating of higher than 100, yet ten of these seasons happened in 2020 alone: for comparison, there were ten such quarterbacks between 1943 and 1966, with two in 1966, and also ten such quarterbacks between 1967 and 1991, with two each in 1976 and 1984. [12]

Further to this, Steve Young and Joe Montana are the only quarterbacks whose careers ended prior to 2000 that are in the top 25 for career passer rating in NFL history,[10] while the league-wide passer rating has steadily risen by an average of 0.63 points per season since its introduction in 1973, from 61.72 that year to 91.87 in 2020.[13]

Therefore, passer rating is a very poor stat for comparing quarterbacks from two different eras. However, within an era and a single season, passer rating is much more accurate and reliable to measure the true effectiveness of a quarterback.

Further, some claim that a "pick-six" (that is, an interception that the opposing team return for a touchdown) should count as minus 1 touchdown for the quarterback. This would have resulted in Tom Tupa having had a passer rating of -827.1 in 2002 (since the only pass he threw that season was intercepted and returned for a touchdown) if the floor and ceilings for the NFL passer rating formula were removed (such limits do not exist for the NCAA passer efficiency formula).

Other measurementsEdit

Total Quarterback Rating (QBR)Edit

ESPN's Total Quarterback Rating is a proprietary statistic that was introduced in 2011 and is designed to measure the total effectiveness and performance of a quarterback. The metric takes into account all of a quarterback's contribution to a game, including passing, rushing, sacks, penalties, touchdowns, and turnovers.[14] Moreover, each play is weighted based on its "difficulty", the context of the game, and the strength of the opposing defense. This means that statistics in garbage time of a blowout game hold less merit than statistics in a close game. Also, a quarterback who throws for four touchdowns and 300 yards against a strong defense will have a higher QBR than a quarterback who has the same stat line against the worst defense in the NFL.[14]

QBR functions on a 0–100 scale, where an average NFL quarterback typically has around a 50 QBR, while a Pro Bowl caliber quarterback will have approximately a 75. This scale also represents a percentile of overall quarterback performances since 2006. Meaning that if a quarterback has a QBR of 90, then their performance in that game is, on average, better than 90% of other quarterback performances.[15]

It is also very common for there to be significant differences between QBR and passer rating leaders, especially since passer rating favors yardage and pure volume of passing attempts rather than efficiency and performance. For example, in 2019 Lamar Jackson had a league leading QBR of 83.0 and earned MVP honors. However, Jackson finished 3rd in passer rating (113.3) behind Ryan Tannehill (117.5) and Drew Brees (116.3) who finished 9th and 3rd for QBR.

PFF Player GradesEdit

Pro Football Focus (PFF) is a football website that conducts in-depth analysis on NFL and NCAA games and players. Part of this analysis is assigning each football player in the NFL and NCAA teams in the Power Five a grade that indicates the performance of said player.[16]

According to the PFF website, the group's algorithm analyzes every play for each individual player and measures the impact that said player has while on the field. A player's impact is then given a grade between −2 to +2 in 0.5 increments.[16] Each position has a scale with a unique algorithm and rules. The scale also takes into account game context, so a strong play in the fourth quarter of a close matchup will be graded higher than one in the 2nd quarter of a blowout game.

A 0 player grade on any given play represents any position player performing at an expected level and in a manner that neither positively nor negatively impacts their team. An example of this is a running back taking a carry through the correct hole and picking up 3 – 4 yards on first and ten. Meanwhile, a +2 represents an incredible performance on a play that shifts the dynamic of a game in favor of the player's team. Brandon Graham's, a defensive end for the Philadelphia Eagles, strip sack on Tom Brady in Super Bowl LII would have easily been a +2 rating.[16] On the other hand a −2 is a play that catastrophically hinders a team's chance of winning, such as a quarterback throwing a pick-six in the fourth quarter of a close game. Ambiguous plays where the outcome is unclear on how a player impacted their team are typically given a 0.

The sum of these plus-minuses are then converted on a 0–100 scale and produce a grade for a single game. However, a player's season grade is not the average of the 16 grades a player receives each game. Instead, PFF credits a player's entire body of work and longevity throughout the season. It is, therefore, possible for a player to have a higher season grade than any individual grade that a player received in any game he played in.[16]

RecordsEdit

NFLEdit

  • Highest passer rating, career (minimum 1,500 attempts): 108.7, Patrick Mahomes, 2017–2020[17]
  • Highest passer rating, season (minimum 200 attempts): 122.5, Aaron Rodgers, 2011[18]

Wide receiver Antwaan Randle El, with a passer rating of 157.5 from 21 completed passes of a possible 26, has the highest career rating of any non-QB with more than twenty attempts.[19] Ben Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning hold the record for the most games with a perfect passer rating (4). As of 2019, 74 NFL quarterbacks have completed a game with a perfect passer rating of 158.3, and seven have done so multiple times. Phil Simms holds the record for the highest passer rating in a Super Bowl, at 150.92 in Super Bowl XXI.

All-Time NFL Passer Rating LeadersEdit

+ means Hall of Famer.

1 Patrick Mahomes 108.7 2017-2021 KC
2 Deshaun Watson 104.5 2017-2021 HOU
3 Aaron Rodgers 103.9 2005–2021 GB
4 Russell Wilson 101.7 2012–2021 SEA
5 Drew Brees 98.7 2001–2020 2TM
6 Dak Prescott 97.3 2016–2021 DAL
7 Tony Romo 97.1 2004–2016 DAL
8 Tom Brady 97.0 2000–2021 2TM
9 Kirk Cousins 96.8 2012–2021 2TM
Steve Young+ 96.8 1985–1999 2TM
11 Peyton Manning+ 96.5 1998–2015 2TM
12 Philip Rivers 95.0 2004–2020 2TM
13 Matt Ryan 94.8 2008–2021 ATL
14 Ben Roethlisberger 94.3 2004–2021 PIT
15 Kurt Warner+ 93.7 1998–2009 4TM
16 Jared Goff 92.3 2016–2021 2TM
Joe Montana+ 92.3 1979–1994 2TM
18 Derek Carr 92.1 2014–2021 LV
19 Ryan Tannehill 91.2 2012–2021 2TM
20 Chad Pennington 90.1 2000–2010 2TM
Carson Wentz 90.1 2016–2021 2TM
22 Marcus Mariota 89.6 2015–2021 2TM
23 Andrew Luck 89.5 2012–2018 IND
Matt Schaub 89.5 2004–2020 4TM
Matthew Stafford 89.5 2009–2021 2TM

[20]

NCAAEdit

See alsoEdit

ReferencesEdit

  1. ^ a b "NFL.com – NFL Quarterback Rating Formula". Archived from the original on August 14, 2011. Retrieved August 6, 2011.
  2. ^ a b "NFL's Passer Rating". Pro Football Hall of Fame Official Site. NFL. January 1, 2005. Archived from the original on October 3, 2015. Retrieved December 27, 2016.
  3. ^ a b "QB Rating story / GQ magazine / by Don Steinberg". bluedonut.com. Archived from the original on September 18, 2013. Retrieved April 29, 2018.
  4. ^ SteelersFan, Tim (July 23, 2009). "Did NFL Passer Ratings Spike in 2004 Or Have They Risen Steadily?". bleacher report. Bleacher Report, Inc. Archived from the original on December 28, 2016. Retrieved December 27, 2016.
  5. ^ "2020 NFL Standings & Team Stats".
  6. ^ "NCAA and NFL Passing Efficiency computation". Football.stassen.com. Archived from the original on November 10, 2011. Retrieved November 15, 2011.
  7. ^ "Kerry J. Byrne: In defense of passer rating". si.com. Archived from the original on December 11, 2017. Retrieved April 29, 2018.
  8. ^ Cold Hard Football Facts: 40 and Fabulous: in praise of passer rating Archived August 17, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  9. ^ 1941 Bears, 1943 Bears, 1949 Eagles, 1955 Browns, 1958 Colts, 1959 Colts, 1966 Packers, and 1996 Packers
  10. ^ a b Paine, Neil (January 4, 2019). "Kirk Cousins Is Not Better Than Joe Montana. So Let's Fix Passer Rating". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 12, 2020.
  11. ^ Jahnke, Nathan (March 25, 2011). "Stat Sheet Misconceptions: Passer Rating | PFF News & Analysis". PFF. Retrieved November 12, 2020.
  12. ^ All-time single season passer rating ranking
  13. ^ "NFL Season By Season Passing". ProFootballReference. Retrieved September 2, 2021.
  14. ^ a b "ESPN Introduces The Total Quarterback Rating". ESPN Press Room U.S. August 2, 2011. Retrieved November 12, 2020.
  15. ^ "How is Total QBR calculated? We explain our quarterback rating". ESPN.com. September 8, 2016. Retrieved November 12, 2020.
  16. ^ a b c d "PFF Player Grades". PFF. Retrieved November 12, 2020.
  17. ^ "NFL Passer Rating Career Stats". Pro Football Reference. Retrieved October 3, 2020.
  18. ^ "Player Game Finder Query Results". Pro Football Reference. Retrieved November 27, 2018.
  19. ^ King, Peter (November 15, 2010). "Patriots? Jets? Giants? There are no super NFL teams this season". Sports Illustrated. Archived from the original on December 7, 2010. Retrieved January 6, 2011.
  20. ^ "NFL Passer Rating Career Leaders". Pro-Football-Reference.com. Retrieved November 12, 2020.
  21. ^ "Tua Tagovailoa College Stats". College Football at Sports-Reference.com. Retrieved January 27, 2020.
  22. ^ "Passing Efficiency Rating Single Season Leaders and Records - College Football at Sports-Reference.com". College Football at Sports-Reference.com. Retrieved January 14, 2020.

External linksEdit