Post-election pendulum for the 2007 New South Wales state election

The following is a Mackerras Pendulum for the New South Wales state election 2007.

"Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 points, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 points.

Legislative AssemblyEdit

Changes in the pendulum since the 2007 election resulted through by-elections in the Labor held seats of Ryde in 2008 and Penrith in 2010. Both seats were won by the Liberal opposition in record swings against the Labor Government of 25 points in Penrith and 23 points in Ryde.

PendulumEdit

LABOR SEATS
Marginal
Miranda Barry Collier ALP 0.8 points
Newcastle Jodi McKay ALP v IND 1.2 points
Maitland Frank Terenzini ALP v IND 2.0 points
Menai Alison Megarrity ALP 2.7 points
Wollondilly Phil Costa ALP 3.3 points
Balmain Verity Firth ALP v GRN 3.8 points
Camden Geoff Corrigan ALP 4.0 points
Gosford Marie Andrews ALP 4.9 points
The Entrance Grant McBride ALP 4.9 points
Fairly safe
Monaro Steve Whan ALP 6.3 points
Londonderry Allan Shearan ALP 6.9 points
Wyong David Harris ALP 6.9 points
Charlestown Matthew Morris ALP v IND 7.0 points
Coogee Paul Pearce ALP 7.2 points
Marrickville Carmel Tebbutt ALP v GRN 7.5 points
Drummoyne Angela D'Amore ALP 7.6 points
Heathcote Paul McLeay ALP 8.8 points
Safe
Riverstone John Aquilina ALP 10.1 points
Rockdale Frank Sartor ALP 10.3 points
Swansea Robert Coombs ALP 10.8 points
Blue Mountains Phil Koperberg ALP 11.1 points
Granville David Borger ALP 11.1 points
Macquarie Fields Andrew McDonald ALP 11.1 points
Mulgoa Diane Beamer ALP 11.1 points
Kiama Matt Brown ALP 12.0 points
Cessnock Kerry Hickey ALP 12.4 points
Bathurst Gerard Martin ALP 13.0 points
Parramatta Tanya Gadiel ALP 13.7 points
East Hills Alan Ashton ALP 14.1 points
Oatley Kevin Greene ALP 14.4 points
Toongabbie Nathan Rees ALP 14.5 points
Strathfield Virginia Judge ALP 15.1 points
Smithfield Ninos Khoshaba ALP 15.5 points
Wallsend Sonia Hornery ALP 15.8 points
Maroubra Michael Daley ALP 16.1 points
Kogarah Cherie Burton ALP 17.7 points
Campbelltown Graham West ALP 18.6 points
Very safe
Fairfield Joe Tripodi ALP 20.4 points
Shellharbour Lylea McMahon ALP v IND 21.6 points
Keira David Campbell ALP 22.0 points
Blacktown Paul Gibson ALP 22.3 points
Heffron Kristina Keneally ALP 23.7 points
Wollongong Noreen Hay ALP 25.3 points
Mount Druitt Richard Amery ALP 25.4 points
Bankstown Tony Stewart ALP 25.6 points
Liverpool Paul Lynch ALP 26.9 points
Canterbury Linda Burney ALP 27.1 points
Auburn Barbara Perry ALP 28.8 points
Cabramatta Reba Meagher ALP 29.0 points
Lakemba Morris Iemma ALP 34.0 points
LIBERAL/ NATIONAL SEATS
Marginal
Port Stephens Craig Baumann LIB 0.1 points
Goulburn Pru Goward LIB v IND 1.3 points
Tweed Geoff Provest NAT 3.0 points
Manly Mike Baird LIB v IND 3.4 points
Bega Andrew Constance LIB 5.1 points
Fairly safe
Hawkesbury Ray Williams LIB v IND 6.0 points
Barwon Kevin Humphries NAT v IND 6.2 points
South Coast Shelley Hancock LIB 7.8 points
Epping Greg Smith LIB 8.0 points
Terrigal Chris Hartcher LIB 8.4 points
Pittwater Rob Stokes LIB v IND 9.4 points
Safe
Murray-Darling John Williams NAT 10.1 points
Baulkham Hills Wayne Merton LIB 10.3 points
Lismore Thomas George NAT 10.5 points
Clarence Steve Cansdell NAT 11.6 points
Orange Russell Turner NAT V IND 11.7 points
Lane Cove Anthony Roberts LIB 12.4 points
Ryde Victor Dominello LIB 13.0 points
Wagga Wagga Daryl Maguire LIB 13.0 points
Ballina Don Page NAT 14.5 points
Willoughby Gladys Berejiklian LIB v IND 14.5 points
Upper Hunter George Souris NAT 14.7 points
North Shore Jillian Skinner LIB v GRN 15.8 points
Oxley Andrew Stoner NAT 15.9 points
Murrumbidgee Adrian Piccoli NAT 16.1 points
Vaucluse Peter Debnam LIB v GRN 16.1 points
Penrith Stuart Ayres LIB 16.48 points
Hornsby Judy Hopwood LIB 16.5 points
Wakehurst Brad Hazzard LIB 17.3 points
Myall Lakes John Turner NAT 17.4 points
Cronulla Malcolm Kerr LIB 17.5 points
Burrinjuck Katrina Hodgkinson NAT 17.6 points
Coffs Harbour Andrew Fraser NAT 17.6 points
Albury Greg Aplin LIB 19.0 points
Castle Hill Michael Richardson LIB 19.1 points
Very safe
Davidson Jonathan O'Dea LIB 24.7 points
Ku-ring-gai Barry O'Farrell LIB 29.0 points
INDEPENDENT SEATS
Lake Macquarie Greg Piper IND v ALP 0.1 points
Dubbo Dawn Fardell IND v NAT 0.9 points
Port Macquarie Peter Besseling IND v NAT 4.5 points
Tamworth Peter Draper IND v NAT 4.8 points
Sydney Clover Moore IND v ALP 16.6 points
Northern Tablelands Richard Torbay IND v NAT 30.2 points

Legislative CouncilEdit

Labor MLC Michael Costa resigned on 22 September 2008. Unions NSW secretary John Robertson was nominated by Labor as his successor, and was formally appointed at a joint sitting of parliament on 28 October.

Gordon Moyes was appointed in 2002 as a member of the Christian Democratic Party to fill the casual vacancy caused by Elaine Nile's resignation from the Legislative Council. He was elected in 2003. Having been expelled from the party in March 2009, he sat as an independent until November 2009 when he joined the Family First Party.

Labor MLC Henry Tsang resigned effective 3 December 2009. Former Mayor of the City of Rockdale Shaoquett Moselmane was nominated by Labor as his successor, and was formally appointed at a joint sitting of parliament on 3 December.

On 7 June 2010, Labor Minister Ian Macdonald resigned from the Legislative Council after resigning from the ministry when it was discovered that he had mis-used taxpayer funds to fund a private holiday in Europe.[1][2] In total, 12 of the 22 Ministers sworn in after the last State election have resigned or been replaced to date.[2] Assistant general secretary of the NSW branch of the ALP Luke Foley was nominated by Labor as his successor, and was formally appointed at a joint sitting of parliament on 10 June 2010.

Greens MLC Lee Rhiannon resigned on 19 July 2010 to contest a seat for the Federal Senate at the 2010 election. The death of Shooters and Fishers Party MLC Roy Smith on 30 July 2010 and the resignations of Labor MLC John Della Bosca on 30 July and Greens MLC Sylvia Hale on 6 September left four vacancies, which were filled by Cate Faehrmann, Robert Borsak, Sophie Cotsis and David Shoebridge respectively on 7 September 2010.

Current balanceEdit

Party Seats held Current Council
2007 Now
Labor Party 19 19                                      
Liberal Party 10 10                                      
National Party 5 5                                      
The Greens 4 4                                      
Shooters and Fishers Party 2 2                                      
Christian Democratic Party 2 1                                      
Family First Party 0 1                                      

ReferencesEdit

  1. ^ Nicholls, Sean (7 June 2010). "Expenses errors: Macdonald quits NSW parliament". smh.com.au. Retrieved 7 June 2010.
  2. ^ a b Besser, Linton (2010-06-04). "Ian Mcdonald sacked for taxpayer rort". Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 2010-06-10.