Piers Corbyn

Piers Richard Corbyn (born 10 March 1947)[1] is an English weather forecaster, businessman and activist. He is the elder brother of former Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn.[2]

Piers Corbyn
Born
Piers Richard Corbyn

(1947-03-10) 10 March 1947 (age 73)
Chippenham, England
OccupationWeather forecaster, businessman and activist
Home townNewport, Shropshire, England
RelativesJeremy Corbyn (brother)
Academic background
EducationCastle House School
Alma materImperial College London
Queen Mary University of London

Early life and educationEdit

Corbyn was born in Chippenham, Wiltshire, and grew up at Yew Tree Manor in Pave Lane, in Newport, Shropshire, a 17th-century country house which was once part of the Duke of Sutherland's Lilleshall estate.[3][4]

He began recording weather and climate patterns at the age of five, constructing his own observation equipment. He attended Castle House School and Adams' Grammar School in Newport, Shropshire. At 18 he went to Imperial College London,[1] being awarded a first class BSc degree in physics in 1968.[5] He commenced postgraduate research there into superconductivity, but then went into student representation and politics for some years. In 1979 he returned to postgraduate study at Queen Mary College, University of London, being awarded an MSc in Astrophysics in 1981.[6]

Student representationEdit

In 1969 he became the first president of the Imperial College Students' Union to be directly elected by the student body. As president until 1970, Corbyn was successful in establishing a sabbatical union president, enabling the elected student leader to be registered at the college without having to study or pay fees (in fact they received a grant from the college and union).[7]

Corbyn set up a short-lived Imperial College Representative Council, seats on which were distributed between members of the college on the basis of their numbers, a system that almost gave students a majority. The ICAUT, a staff union, refused to cooperate with this student-led initiative. Although this particular council did not survive, increased student representation on college boards and committees became, like the sabbatical president, a lasting success of Corbyn's time as ICU president.

Corbyn, together with the rector at the time, Lord Penney, received the Queen when she opened a new administrative building in 1969. During the visit Corbyn petitioned the Queen in front of 900 people, asking for students to be given greater say in the governance of the college.[8]

Housing rightsEdit

Corbyn was a housing and squatters' rights activist in the north Paddington area of Westminster in the mid-1970s. In 1974, he fought for a seat on the council as a Squatters and Tenants candidate; in 1978, he and a colleague fought as Decent Housing candidates.[9] In the 1977 GLC election he was the International Marxist Group candidate for Lambeth Central.[10] He and some of the squatters in Elgin Avenue were, as a result of their campaign which included the building of barricades against eviction, rehoused by the GLC in 1975 spread out between Westminster and in other London boroughs to discourage the risk of further united action. He later moved from that rehousing in Rust Square to the Alvey Estate in Southwark where he became a leader of the tenants association.[citation needed]

Party politicsEdit

Corbyn was a member of the Labour Party and served as a councillor in the London borough of Southwark, Burgess Ward, between 1986 and 1990.[11] In 1987, Corbyn was arrested for the defacing of an Alliance poster. He was subsequently released without charge.[12] For seven years he was an unpaid campaigns organiser in Bermondsey and Southwark, being thanked by Tony Blair in 1998 at Downing Street.[13] Piers Corbyn left the Labour Party in 2002 in the run up to the invasion of Iraq,[14] and stood as an independent candidate on housing issues in the Southwark election in 2015.[15] According to The Sunday Times in September 2017, his attempt to rejoin the Southwark Constituency Labour Party in January 2017 was blocked.[14]

His brother, Jeremy Corbyn, has been Labour MP for Islington North since 1983 and served as Leader of the Opposition and Leader of the Labour Party from 2015 to 2020. In August 2015, Piers Corbyn supported his brother's campaign in Labour Party leadership election, on the basis that he stood for proper debate and accountability, including on climate.[16][17] On Twitter he urged people to register to vote and back Jeremy Corbyn to lead the Labour Party.[18]

Corbyn's denial of current global warming has tended to find more favour in right-wing Conservative circles, however.[15] Ex-Mayor of London and current Prime Minister Boris Johnson had repeatedly suggested in his Daily Telegraph column and elsewhere that Corbyn might be correct.[19][20] Corbyn has, however, criticised Margaret Thatcher's promotion of man-made global warming (also saying that she later recanted her position) around the time of the 1984–85 miners' strike, judging it a disingenuous attempt to justify shutting down coal mines.[21]

WeatherActionEdit

Following some years of weather prediction as an occupation, he formed WeatherAction, a business, in 1995.[1] WeatherAction is the business through which Corbyn sells his predictions. He has in the past bet on these predictions. His betting attracted much interest in 1990, when his predictions of severe weather were met by a year of the "worst extremes".[22]

WeatherAction was formerly listed on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM) as 'Weather Action Holdings plc' in 1997,[23] and was transferred back to private ownership in 1999, primarily because of sustaining increasing losses and the impact of costs related to listed status (around £70,000 annually) compared to annual revenues of £250,000.[24] Corbyn reacquired the weather prediction business; the listed shell was taken over by investors and changed its name to 'InternetAction.com', with the intent of researching potential net-based takeover targets.[25]

WeatherAction left the Alternative Investment Market in 1999 after reported losses incurred during its time as a public company of £480,000 and its share price dropped from 79p a share to 24p.[24]

Prediction methodsEdit

Corbyn's predictions are based on what is called "The Solar Weather Technique".[26] The technique "combines statistical analysis of over a century of historical weather patterns with clues derived from solar observations."[1] He considers past weather patterns and solar observations and sun-earth magnetic connectivity. However, meteorological studies show that such influences cause minimal impact on the Earth's atmosphere.[27]

Scientific reviewEdit

The only study involving Corbyn's work published in a peer-reviewed journal was in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics (2001). Its investigation was limited to Corbyn's 'likely damaging gale periods' predictions for the island of Great Britain for October 1995 to September 1997. Corbyn's enlisted work (carried out for a consortium of insurance companies) was only for the most likely periods of the strongest winds and specifically not a full forecast to include lesser winds:[28]

"Forecasts prepared by WeatherAction would repay further attention. The results provide little evidence to dismiss the observed success rates as being attributable to mere chance or good fortune. Indeed the balance of evidence indicates that the system performs better than chance although it is recognized that the margin of success differs greatly between the seasons and is lowest in winter when gales are most frequent."
"This analysis has been wholly empirical in nature, seeking only to establish the success levels of the gale forecasts. Other aspects of the forecasts have not been considered in this evaluation. Inevitably however these results draw into the debate questions surrounding the methodology by which the forecasts are prepared. This is not, however, the arena in which such issues should be taken up."

Researchers also stated of Corbyn's predictions that:[29]

"It is unusual for most of the detail to be completely correct, but equally it is rare for nearly everything to be wrong… Some forecasts are clearly very good, and a few are very poor, but the majority fall in the grey area in between, where an optimistic assessor would find merit, but a critical assessor would find fault."

Media coverageEdit

Critics have pointed to inaccurate predictions, such as a white Easter in 1989,[30] and "raging weather" in September 1997.[31] WeatherAction predictions have sometimes been contested by the Met Office, such as in 2008.[32]

The Daily Express newspaper has repeatedly published warnings based at least in part on WeatherAction predictions, which have sometimes been assessed by others.[33][34][35][36]

Following criticism of WeatherAction's forecasts in The Times and The Guardian, in particular from journalist Paul Simons, Piers Corbyn forbade the use of any extracts of them in any articles unless he had approved them. In addition, he also forbade newspapers and any publication which carried articles by Paul Simons from quoting them.[37][verification needed] It is not clear what authority Corbyn's proclamation was based on, and neither The Times nor The Guardian have ceased the practice.

On 16 May 2020, Corbyn was among 19 people taken into custody for refusing to leave and failing to provide his details whilst protesting against the UK's COVID-19 lockdown in London's Hyde Park. He was reported to have advocated coronavirus-related 5G conspiracy theories and anti-vaccination claims before being taken away by police.[38][39]

EarthquakesEdit

Corbyn asserts that earthquakes can be triggered by solar activity, and hence that he can to some extent predict them.[40]

In an article in the technology magazine Wired entitled "The Fraudulent Business of Earthquake and Eruption Prediction",[41] Erik Klemetti, an assistant professor of Geosciences at Denison University, Ohio, accused Corbyn of "cherry picking" and said people who claimed to be able to forecast earthquakes were "faith healers of the geologic community and should be seen as such".

Climate change denialEdit

Corbyn has stated his belief that the anthropogenic contribution to global warming is minimal, with any increase in temperature due to increased solar activity.[42] This view is in contradiction with mainstream science.[27] In 2008 Corbyn stated that "CO2 has never driven, does not drive and never will drive weather or climate. Global warming is over and it never was anything to do with CO2. CO2 is still rising but the world is now cooling and will continue to do so."[43] In 2009 he attended the International Conference on Climate Change organised by the Heartland Institute.[44]

He writes about his views, including the idea that the world is experiencing cooling, on his website[45] and appears on talk shows to discuss what he considers to be weaknesses of the argument for man-made global warming.[46] He featured in a Channel 4 documentary The Great Global Warming Swindle in 2007; a scientifically reviewed complaint to Ofcom noted that he was introduced as 'Dr Piers Corbyn, Climate Forecaster' despite not having a doctorate nor any qualification specifically in climate science or environmental science.[47] In 2015 BBC Radio 4 apologised for an "unfortunate lapse" of a documentary, presented by Daily Mail journalist Quentin Letts, which featured Corbyn in a critique of the Met Office's views on climate change while failing to mention the scientific consensus.[48]

PublicationsEdit

While he was an undergraduate, an article by Corbyn was published in the Royal Meteorological Society's magazine Weather discussing a brine barometer and an electrical thermometer.[1]

ReferencesEdit

  1. ^ a b c d e Wired: "Everyone Complains About the Weather... Piers Corbyn Is Doing Something About It. Archived 4 November 2012 at the Wayback Machine" Tom Standage, February 1999. URL accessed 14 March 2007.
  2. ^ Usborne, Simon. "Is there trouble ahead for Jeremy Corbyn? Enter sibling Piers, the wacky weatherman..." The Independent. Archived from the original on 13 December 2019. Retrieved 13 November 2018.
  3. ^ Burgess, Kaya (5 December 2016). "Corbyn's family mansion for sale". The Times. Archived from the original on 11 December 2019. Retrieved 27 August 2018.
  4. ^ Ross, Tim; Sawyer, Patrick (13 September 2015). "Labour Turns Left: How the outsider with two grade Es at A-level became a prime minister in waiting". The Sunday Telegraph. Archived from the original on 2 October 2015. Retrieved 17 December 2016 – via Press Reader.
  5. ^ INTERVIEW: PIERS CORBYN Archived 5 March 2016 at the Wayback Machine 1 June 2007 issue of Executive Intelligence Review.
  6. ^ Whether the weather be... Archived 8 December 2015 at the Wayback Machine QUAD Magazine, 2007, Queen Mary University of London
  7. ^ The History of Imperial College London, 1907–2007, Hannah Gay, p. 437
  8. ^ Gay, Hannah (2007). The History of Imperial College London, 1907–2007. London: Imperial College Press, 437, 477 and Illustration 102. ISBN 978-1-86094-708-7.
  9. ^ Harrow Road ward Archived 20 August 2007 at the Wayback Machine election results
  10. ^ "Greater London Council Election results: Lambeth". Archived from the original on 4 October 2006. Retrieved 14 March 2007.
  11. ^ Ex-Labour councillor Piers Corbyn to stand in Chaucer by-election Archived 10 September 2015 at the Wayback Machine Friday 3 April 2015, Bankside Press
  12. ^ "In Brief". The Glasgow Herald. 11 June 1987. Retrieved 19 September 2015.
  13. ^ Paul Vallely He visited in glory days of '97, but has Blair kept his vow to Aylesbury Estate? Archived 2 July 2015 at the Wayback Machine The Independent, Tuesday 12 April 2005
  14. ^ a b Wheeler, Caroline; Leake, Jonathan (24 September 2017). "Jeremy Corbyn's brother Piers rejected by Labour". The Sunday Times. Archived from the original on 24 September 2017. Retrieved 24 September 2017.(subscription required)
  15. ^ a b Will climate-change denier Piers scupper brother Jeremy Corbyn's leadership bid? Archived 19 September 2015 at the Wayback Machine Tom Batchelor, 25 July 2015, Express newspaper
  16. ^ Piers Corbyn denies claims that he opposes brother Jeremy’s Labour leadership bid Archived 24 October 2015 at the Wayback Machine Southwark News, 20 August 2015
  17. ^ The Other Rebel" Archived 22 December 2019 at the Wayback Machine, The Guardian. Retrieved on 5 March 2018.
  18. ^ Corbyn, Piers (11 August 2015). "ONLY poll that counts open14Aug. Back #JeremyCorbyn 2lead Labour! Register 2vote by Midday12Aug #Corbyn4Labour #Piers". Twitter. Archived from the original on 7 October 2019. Retrieved 15 July 2017.
  19. ^ Ward, Bob (23 January 2013). "Boris Johnson's climate change "scepticism" is an embarrassment to London's scientists". New Statesman. Archived from the original on 5 January 2020. Retrieved 16 May 2020.
  20. ^ The man who repeatedly beats the Met Office at its own game Archived 22 April 2018 at the Wayback Machine The Daily Telegraph, December 2010
  21. ^ Piers Corbyn: the other rebel in the family Archived 22 December 2019 at the Wayback Machine The Observer, Tim Adams, 24 January 2016
  22. ^ Weather: The man who makes money out of sun-spots, The Independent, 24 October 1997.
  23. ^ Haven't the foggiest? Read on, The Independent, 22 November 1998. Said to be listed "13 months" prior to publication, ie 1997.
  24. ^ a b Atkinson, Dan (24 November 1999). "Weather goes private again". The Guardian. London. Archived from the original on 7 May 2014. Retrieved 22 May 2010.
  25. ^ MacAlister, Terry (21 December 1999). "Netvest shows 500% return". The Guardian. London. Archived from the original on 7 May 2014. Retrieved 22 May 2010.
  26. ^ WeatherAction: "WeatherAction Archived 3 July 2007 at the Wayback Machine" URL accessed 14 March 2007
  27. ^ a b Black, Richard (10 June 2007). "'No Sun link' to climate change". BBC. Archived from the original on 13 September 2007. Retrieved 7 January 2008.
  28. ^ The Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Vol 63, Issue 1, January 2001, pp. 29–34: [1] Archived 16 June 2012 at the Wayback Machine URL accessed 8 September 2015. DOI 10.1016/S1364-6826(00)00155-3
  29. ^ How Good Is He, Anyway? Archived 24 October 2012 at the Wayback Machine – Wired, Issue 7.02, Feb 1999
  30. ^ Feedback – 15 April 1989 – New Scientist Archived 22 October 2012 at the Wayback Machine (Subscription only)
  31. ^ Rowan, Matthew (22 November 1998). "Haven't the foggiest?". The Independent. London. Archived from the original on 10 November 2012. Retrieved 20 November 2010.
  32. ^ "Prediction of −17 °C freeze cuts no ice with Met Office" Helen Pidd, The Guardian, January 2008
  33. ^ Killer Storms To Lash Britain Archived 19 October 2007 at the Wayback Machine Daily Express, Jo Macfarlane, 17 October 2007. URL accessed 20 November 2007.
  34. ^ Whatever happened to the 'coldest May in 100 years'? Archived 16 October 2016 at the Wayback Machine Leo Hickman. The Guardian, 1 June 2012
  35. ^ Hottest August in 300 YEARS on way as jet stream BOILS Britain Archived 23 August 2014 at the Wayback Machine Daily Express, Nathan Rao, 31 July 2014
  36. ^ Rao, Nathan (27 November 2014). "Now even MORE forecasters warn of Arctic freeze: Britain to plunge into severe cold winter". Archived from the original on 6 September 2015. Retrieved 14 September 2015.
  37. ^ "WeatherAction home page". Archived from the original on 11 May 2008. Retrieved 5 March 2008.
  38. ^ Nazia Parveen (16 May 2020). "Piers Corbyn among 19 held in coronavirus lockdown protests". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 20 June 2020. Retrieved 16 May 2020.
  39. ^ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 2 June 2020. Retrieved 18 May 2020.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  40. ^ "Comments from Piers". 11 January 2012. Archived from the original on 11 January 2012.CS1 maint: BOT: original-url status unknown (link)
  41. ^ "The fraudulent business of earthquake and eruption prediction". Archived from the original on 24 January 2013. Retrieved 11 March 2017.
  42. ^ Adams, Tim (24 January 2016). "Piers Corbyn: the other rebel in the family". The Observer. Archived from the original on 22 December 2019. Retrieved 5 October 2019.
  43. ^ "THE ROLE OF THE SPOTLESS SUN - Climate Realists". Archived from the original on 15 January 2010. Retrieved 22 March 2010.
  44. ^ Think-tanks take oil money and use it to fund climate deniers Archived 23 September 2015 at the Wayback Machine The Independent, 7 February 2010
  45. ^ Response to BBC2 "Climate Wars" 2008.
  46. ^ Piers Corbyn on The Alex Jones Show on YouTube 2009
  47. ^ "Full Ofcom Complaint, Table of Contents, page i". Archived from the original on 4 March 2016. Retrieved 11 September 2015.
  48. ^ What’s The Point of… the Met Office? Archived 14 September 2017 at the Wayback Machine Ian Burrell, October 2015, The Independent

External linksEdit