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Next Andalusian regional election

The next Andalusian regional election will be held no later than Tuesday, 30 June 2026, to elect the 13th Parliament of the autonomous community of Andalusia. All 109 seats in the Parliament will be up for election.

Next Andalusian regional election
← 2022 No later than 30 June 2026
All 109 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia
55 seats needed for a majority
 
Leader Juan Manuel Moreno Juan Espadas Manuel Gavira
Party PP PSOE–A Vox
Leader since 1 March 2014 17 June 2021 10 August 2022
Leader's seat Málaga Seville Cádiz
Last election 58 seats, 43.1% 30 seats, 24.1% 14 seats, 13.5%
Current seats 58 30 14
Seats needed In majority 25 41
 
Leader Inmaculada Nieto José Ignacio García
Party PorA Adelante Andalucía
Leader since 7 May 2022 16 March 2024
Leader's seat Málaga Cádiz
Last election 5 seats, 7.7% 2 seats, 4.6%
Current seats 5 2
Seats needed 50 53
Constituency results map for the Parliament of Andalusia
Incumbent President

Juan Manuel Moreno
PP



Overview edit

Electoral system edit

The Parliament of Andalusia is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Andalusia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Andalusian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Voting for the Parliament is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Andalusia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2022 abolished the "begged" or expat vote system (Spanish: Voto rogado), under which Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote.[2] The expat vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it had been in force.[3]

The 109 members of the Parliament of Andalusia are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Almería, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Huelva, Jaén, Málaga and Seville, with each being allocated an initial minimum of eight seats and the remaining 45 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the number of seats in each province does not exceed two times that of any other).[1][4]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency is entitled the following seats:

Seats Constituencies
18 Seville
17 Málaga
15 Cádiz
13 Granada
12 Almería, Córdoba
11 Huelva, Jaén

The use of the D'Hondt method may result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.[5]

Election date edit

The term of the Parliament of Andalusia expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Regional Government of Andalusia (BOJA), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication barring any date within from 1 July to 31 August. The previous election was held on 19 June 2022, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 19 June 2026. The election decree must be published in the BOJA no later than 26 May 2026, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest (theoretical) possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 19 July 2026. However, due to the summer temporary ban on elections, the latest real date for an election to be held is Tuesday, 30 June 2026.[1][4][6]

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Andalusia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process and that dissolution does not occur before one year has elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament is to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1][7]

Parliamentary composition edit

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups at the present time.[8]

Current parliamentary composition
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Andalusian People's Parliamentary Group PP 58 58
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE–A 30 30
Vox Parliamentary Group in Andalusia Vox 14 14
For Andalusia Parliamentary Group Podemos 3 5
IULV–CA 1
Más País 1
Mixed Group Adelante 2 2

Parties and candidates edit

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[4][6]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances 		Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
PP
List
   Juan Manuel Moreno Conservatism
Christian democracy 		43.13% 58  Y
PSOE–A
List
   Juan Espadas Social democracy 24.09% 30  N
Vox
List
   Manuel Gavira Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism 		13.46% 14  N [9]
PorA
List
   Inmaculada Nieto Left-wing populism
Green politics 		7.68% 5  N
Adelante
Andalucía
List
  • Anti-capitalists (Anticapitalistas)
  • Andalusian Spring (Primavera Andaluza)
  • Andalusian Left (IzA)
  • Defend Andalusia (Defender Andalucía)
  José Ignacio García Andalusian nationalism
Left-wing populism
Anti-capitalism 		4.58% 2  N [10]
[11]

Opinion polls edit

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary edit

 
Local regression trend line of poll results from 19 June 2022 to the present day, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates edit

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are also displayed below (or in place of) the voting estimates in a smaller font; 55 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout                 Lead
Sigma Dos/OKDiario[p 1] 28 Feb 2024 ? ? 46.4
59 		24.5
29 		10.2
10 		10.5
9 		5.1
2 		– – – 21.9
CENTRA/CEA[p 2] 12–22 Dec 2023 3,600 55.0 46.2
60/62 		21.0
25/27 		12.7
11/12 		11.9
10 		3.8
0/1 		1.5
0 		– – 25.2
CENTRA/CEA[p 3] 11–21 Sep 2023 3,600 59.8 41.4
56/58 		24.7
30/32 		11.7
9/10 		12.6
10/12 		4.8
0/2 		1.3
0 		– – 16.7
2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 — 66.6 36.4
(45) 		33.5
(38) 		15.3
(16) 		[a] 0.2
(0) 		– 0.2
(0) 		12.0
(10) 		2.9
CENTRA/CEA[p 4] 12–23 Jun 2023 3,600 58.9 44.6
58/59 		24.1
30/31 		12.5
12/13 		8.5
5/6 		5.3
2 		1.6
0 		– – 20.5
CENTRA/CEA[p 5] 7–21 Mar 2023 3,600 56.7 42.2
56/57 		24.2
30/31 		13.4
12/13 		8.5
8/9 		3.3
1 		4.2
0 		– – 18.0
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 6] 1 Jan–13 Feb 2023 854 ? 46.0
60 		23.4
28 		11.2
13 		8.0
6 		4.7
2 		3.0
0 		0.5
0 		– 22.6
CENTRA/CEA[p 7] 21 Nov–2 Dec 2022 3,600 58.0 42.3
56/58 		19.4
22/23 		12.8
13/14 		11.9
12/13 		5.4
3/4 		3.1
0 		– – 22.9
CENTRA/CEA[p 8] 13–26 Sep 2022 3,600 53.2 45.5
58/60 		21.1
27/28 		11.5
10/11 		11.4
10/11 		4.9
1/2 		2.3
0 		– – 24.4
2022 regional election 19 Jun 2022 — 55.9 43.1
58 		24.1
30 		13.5
14 		7.7
5 		4.6
2 		3.3
0 		0.5
0 		– 19.0

Voting preferences edit

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Notes edit

  1. ^ a b Within Sumar.

References edit

Opinion poll sources
  1. ^ "El PP sigue reforzando su mayoría absoluta en Andalucía a costa de un PSOE cuesta abajo y sin frenos". OKDiario (in Spanish). 28 February 2024.
  2. ^ a b "Barómetro Andaluz de diciembre 2023". CEA (in Spanish). 15 January 2024.
  3. ^ a b "Barómetro Andaluz de septiembre 2023". CEA (in Spanish). 2 October 2023.
  4. ^ a b "Barómetro Andaluz de junio 2023". CEA (in Spanish). 3 July 2023.
  5. ^ a b "Barómetro Andaluz de marzo 2023". CEA (in Spanish). 10 April 2023.
  6. ^ "EP Andalucía (15F): Aumenta la distancia entre populares y socialistas". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 February 2023.
  7. ^ a b "Barómetro Andaluz de diciembre 2022". CEA (in Spanish). 19 December 2022.
  8. ^ a b "Barómetro Andaluz de septiembre 2022". CEA (in Spanish). 24 October 2022.
Other
  1. ^ a b c d "Ley Orgánica 2/2007, de 19 de marzo, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía para Andalucía". Organic Law No. 2 of 19 March 2007 (in Spanish). Retrieved 25 November 2023.
  2. ^ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  3. ^ Araque Conde, Pilar (8 June 2022). "El Congreso acaba con el voto rogado: diez años de trabas burocráticas para los residentes en el extranjero". Público (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 31 July 2022.
  4. ^ a b c "Ley 1/1986, de 2 de enero, Electoral de Andalucía". Law No. 1 of 2 January 1986 (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 January 2020. Archived 10 September 2020 at the Wayback Machine
  5. ^ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  6. ^ a b "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985 (in Spanish). Retrieved 25 November 2023.
  7. ^ "Ley 6/2006, de 24 de octubre, del Gobierno de la Comunidad Autónoma de Andalucía". Law No. 6 of 24 October 2006 (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 September 2017. Archived 17 September 2017 at the Wayback Machine
  8. ^ "Parliamentary Groups". Parliament of Andalusia (in Spanish). Retrieved 20 June 2022.
  9. ^ "Manuel Gavira sustituye a Olona como portavoz de Vox en Andalucía". El Periódico de España (in Spanish). 10 August 2022. Retrieved 19 December 2022.
  10. ^ "Teresa Rodríguez deja su escaño y vuelve a su plaza de profesora de instituto". elDiario.es (in Spanish). 19 December 2022. Retrieved 19 December 2022.
  11. ^ "José Ignacio García releva a Teresa Rodríguez como portavoz de Adelante Andalucía". ABC (in Spanish). 17 March 2024. Retrieved 17 March 2024.
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