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A nuclear close call is an incident that could lead to, or could have led to, at least one unintended nuclear detonation/explosion. These incidents typically involve a perceived imminent threat to a nuclear-armed country which could lead to retaliatory strikes against the perceived aggressor. The damage caused by international nuclear exchange is not necessarily limited to the participating countries, as the hypothesized rapid climate change associated with even small-scale regional nuclear war could threaten food production worldwide—a scenario known as nuclear famine.[1]

Despite a reduction in global nuclear tensions and major nuclear arms reductions after the end of the Cold War (in 1989), estimated nuclear warhead stockpiles total roughly 15,000 worldwide, with the United States and Russia holding 90% of the total.[2]

Though exact details on many nuclear close calls are hard to come by, the analysis of particular cases has highlighted the importance of a variety of factors in preventing accidents. At an international level, this includes the importance of context and outside mediation; at the national level, effectiveness in government communications, and involvement of key decision-makers; and, at the individual level, the decisive role of individuals in following intuition and prudent decision-making, often in violation of protocol.[3]

Contents

1950s and 1960sEdit

5 November 1956Edit

During the Suez Crisis, the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) received a number of simultaneous reports, including unidentified aircraft over Turkey, Soviet MiG-15 fighters over Syria, a downed British Canberra medium bomber, and unexpected maneuvers by the Soviet Black Sea Fleet through the Dardanelles that appeared to signal a Soviet offensive. Considering previous Soviet threats to utilize conventional weapons against France and the UK, U.S. forces believed these events could trigger a NATO nuclear strike against the Soviet Union. In fact, all reports of Soviet action turned out to be erroneous, misinterpreted, or exaggerated. The perceived threat was due to a coincidental combination of events, including a wedge of swans over Turkey, a fighter escort for the Syrian president returning from Moscow, a British bomber brought down by mechanical issues, and scheduled exercises of the Soviet fleet.[4]

5 October 1960Edit

Radar equipment in Thule, Greenland mistakenly interpreted a moonrise over Norway as a large-scale Soviet missile launch. Upon receiving a report of the supposed attack, NORAD went on high alert. However, doubts about the authenticity of the attack arose due to the presence of Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev in New York as head of the USSR's United Nations delegation.[5][6][7]

24 January 1961Edit

The 1961 Goldsboro B-52 crash was an accident that occurred near Goldsboro, North Carolina, on January 24, 1961. A B-52 Stratofortress carrying two 3–4-megaton Mark 39 nuclear bombs broke up in mid-air, dropping its nuclear payload in the process.[8] The pilot in command, Walter Scott Tulloch (grandfather of actress Bitsie Tulloch), ordered the crew to eject at 9,000 feet (2,700 m). Five crewmen successfully ejected or bailed out of the aircraft and landed safely, another ejected but did not survive the landing, and two died in the crash.[9] Information newly declassified in 2013 showed that one of the bombs came very close to detonating.[10]

24 November 1961Edit

Staff at the Strategic Air Command Headquarters (SAC HQ) simultaneously lost contact with NORAD and multiple Ballistic Missile Early Warning System sites. Since these communication lines were designed to be redundant and independent from one another, the communications failure was interpreted as either a very unlikely coincidence or a coordinated attack. SAC HQ prepared the entire ready force for takeoff before already-overhead aircraft confirmed that there did not appear to be an attack. It was later found that the failure of a single relay station in Colorado was the sole cause of the communications problem.[5]

27 October 1962Edit

At the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis, Soviet patrol submarine B-59 almost launched a nuclear-tipped torpedo while under harassment by American naval forces. One of several vessels surrounded by American destroyers near Cuba, B-59 dove to avoid detection and was unable to communicate with Moscow for a number of days.[11] USS Beale began dropping practice depth charges to signal B-59 to surface, however the Soviet submarine took these to be real depth charges.[12] With low batteries affecting the submarine's life support systems and without orders from Moscow, the commander of B-59 believed that war may have already begun and ordered the use of a 10-kiloton nuclear torpedo against the American fleet. The submarine political officer agreed, but commander of the sub-flotilla Vasili Arkhipov persuaded the captain to surface and await orders.[13][14]

On the same day, an American U-2 spy plane was shot down over Cuba, and another U-2 flown by United States Air Force Captain Charles Maultsby strayed 300 miles (480 km) into Soviet airspace. Despite orders to avoid Soviet airspace by at least 100 miles (160 km), a navigational error took the U-2 over the Chukotka Peninsula, causing Soviet MiG interceptors to scramble and pursue the aircraft.[4][15] American F-102A interceptors armed with GAR-11 Falcon nuclear air-to-air missiles (each with a 0.25 kiloton yield) were then scrambled to escort the U-2 into friendly airspace.[16] Individual pilots were capable of arming and launching their missiles.

9 November 1965Edit

The Command Center of the Office of Emergency Planning went on full alert after a massive power outage in the northeastern United States. Several nuclear bomb detectors—used to distinguish between regular power outages and power outages caused by a nuclear blast—near major U.S. cities malfunctioned due to circuit errors, creating the illusion of a nuclear attack.[4]

23 May 1967Edit

A powerful solar flare accompanied by a coronal mass ejection interfered with multiple NORAD radars over the Northern Hemisphere. This interference was initially interpreted as intentional jamming of the radars by the Soviets, thus an act of war. A nuclear bomber counter-strike was nearly launched by the U.S.[17]

1970s and 1980sEdit

9 November 1979Edit

A computer error at NORAD headquarters led to alarm and full preparation for a nonexistent large-scale Soviet attack.[5] NORAD notified national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski that the Soviet Union had launched 250 ballistic missiles with a trajectory for the United States, stating that a decision to retaliate would need to be made by the president within 3 to 7 minutes. NORAD computers then placed the number of incoming missiles at 2,200.[18] Strategic Air Command was notified, and nuclear bombers prepared for takeoff. Within six to seven minutes of the initial response, satellite and radar systems were able to confirm that the attack was a false alarm.[19][7] It was found that a training scenario was inadvertently loaded into an operational computer. Commenting on the incident, U.S. State Department adviser Marshall Shulman stated that "false alerts of this kind are not a rare occurrence. There is a complacency about handling them that disturbs me."[18] In the months following the incident there were 3 more false alarms at NORAD, 2 of them caused by faulty computer chips.[5]

15 March 1980Edit

One of four Soviet missiles launched from a submarine near the Kuril Islands was detected by an American early warning sensor and determined to be heading towards the United States.[5]

26 September 1983Edit

Several weeks after the downing of Korean Air Lines Flight 007 over Soviet airspace, a satellite early-warning system near Moscow reported the launch of one American Minuteman ICBM. Soon after, it reported that five missiles had been launched. Convinced that a real American offensive would involve many more missiles, Lieutenant Colonel Stanislav Petrov of the Air Defense Forces refused to acknowledge the threat as legitimate and continued to convince his superiors that it was a false alarm until this could be confirmed by ground radar.[7][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27] Two months later, parts of the Soviet government misinterpreted the Able Archer 83 NATO simulation of escalation to DEFCON 1 as a possible ruse of war to obscure preparations for a genuine nuclear first strike.[28]

Post-Cold WarEdit

25 January 1995Edit

Russian President Boris Yeltsin became the first world leader to activate a nuclear briefcase after Russian radar systems detected the launch of a Norwegian Black Brant XII research rocket being used to study the Northern Lights.[29] Russian strategic ballistic missile submarines were put on alert in preparation for a possible retaliatory strike.[30] When it became clear the rocket did not pose a threat to Russia and was not part of a larger attack, the alarm was cancelled. Russia was in fact one of a number of countries earlier informed of the launch; however, the information had not reached the Russian radar operators.[5]

See alsoEdit

ReferencesEdit

  1. ^ Fromm, M.; Stocks, B.; Servranckx, R.; et al. (2006). "Smoke in the Stratosphere: What Wildfires have Taught Us About Nuclear Winter". Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union. Washington, D.C.: American Geophysical Union. 87 (52 Fall Meet. Suppl.): Abstract U14A–04. Bibcode:2006AGUFM.U14A..04F. Archived from the original on 6 October 2014.
  2. ^ "Nuclear Weapons: Who has what at a glance". Arms Control Association.
  3. ^ Lewis, Patricia; Williams, Heather; Pelopidas, Benoit; Aghlani, Sasan (28 April 2014). "Too Close for Comfort: Cases of Near Nuclear Use and Options for Policy" (PDF). Chatham House Report.
  4. ^ a b c Philips, Alan F. "20 Mishaps That Might Have Started Accidental Nuclear War". Nuclear Files. Retrieved 5 April 2016.
  5. ^ a b c d e f "Close Calls with Nuclear Weapons" (PDF). Union of Concerned Scientists. Retrieved 5 April 2016.
  6. ^ Carlson, Peter (2009). K Blows Top: A Cold War Comic Interlude Starring Nikita Khrushchev, America's Most Unlikely Tourist. PublicAffairs. ISBN 978-1-58648-497-2.
  7. ^ a b c Stevens, Matt; Mele, Christopher (2018). "Causes of False Missile Alerts: The Sun, the Moon and a 46-Cent Chip". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 14 January 2018.
  8. ^ Schneider, Barry (May 1975). "Big Bangs from Little Bombs". Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: 28. Retrieved 13 July 2009.
  9. ^ Sedgwick, Jessica. "Bombs Over Goldsboro". This Month in North Carolina History (January 2008). Archived from the original on 28 December 2011. Retrieved 24 January 2012.
  10. ^ "Goldsboro Revisited," The Guardian, 20 September 2013, accessed 20 September 2013.
  11. ^ Michael Dobbs, One Minute to Midnight, Vintage, Random House, 2009.
  12. ^ "Chronology of Submarine Contact During the Cuban Missile Crisis". National Security Archive of the George Washington University. Retrieved 15 November 2010.
  13. ^ Edward Wilson (27 October 2012). "Thank you Vasili Arkhipov, the man who stopped nuclear war". The Guardian. Retrieved 4 August 2016.
  14. ^ Noam Chomsky (2004). Hegemony or Survival: America's Quest for Global Dominance. New York: Henry Holt. p. 74. ISBN 0-8050-7688-3.
  15. ^ Michael Dobbs (June 2008). "Lost in Enemy Airspace". Vanity Fair. Retrieved 29 August 2016.
  16. ^ "Air-to-air Missile Non-comparison Table". X-Plane. Retrieved 29 August 2016.
  17. ^ Wall, Michael D. (9 August 2016). "How a 1967 Solar Storm Nearly Led to Nuclear War". Space.com. Retrieved 12 August 2016.
  18. ^ a b "The 3 A.M. Phone Call". The National Security Archive. George Washington University. 1 March 2012. Retrieved 4 August 2016.
  19. ^ "CBC Digital Archives". CBC.
  20. ^ Hoffman, David (10 February 1999). "I Had A Funny Feeling in My Gut". Washington Post. Retrieved 4 August 2016.
  21. ^ Shane, Scott. "Cold War's Riskiest Moment". Baltimore Sun, 31 August 2003 (article reprinted as The Nuclear War That Almost Happened in 1983). Archived from the original on 19 August 2006.
  22. ^ "Another day the world almost ended". RT. 19 May 2010. Retrieved 17 January 2018.
  23. ^ "'I was just doing my job': Soviet officer who averted nuclear war dies at age 77". RT. 17 September 2017. Retrieved 17 January 2018.
  24. ^ "Stanislav Petrov, who averted possible nuclear war, dies at 77". BBC. 18 September 2017. Retrieved 17 January 2018.
  25. ^ "Stanislav Petrov, 'the man who saved the world' from nuclear war, dies at 77". Los Angeles Times. Associated Press. 21 September 2017. Retrieved 17 January 2018.
  26. ^ Myre, Greg (18 September 2017). "Stanislav Petrov, 'The Man Who Saved The World,' Dies At 77". npr. Retrieved 17 January 2018.
  27. ^ Daley, Jason (18 September 2017). Man Who Saved the World From Nuclear Annihilation Dies at 77: In 1983, Soviet lieutenant colonel Stanislav Petrov kept his cool and reported a U.S. missile strike as a false alarm, preventing a massive counterstrike. Smithsonian.com. Retrieved 17 January 2018.
  28. ^ Benjamin B. Fischer (17 March 2007). "A Cold War Conundrum: The 1983 Soviet War Scare". Central Intelligence Agency. Archived from the original on 14 January 2009. Retrieved 13 January 2009.
  29. ^ Hoffman, David (15 March 1998). "Cold-War Doctrines Refuse to Die". Washington Post Foreign Service.
  30. ^ "January 25, 1995—The Norwegian Rocket Incident". United States European Command. 23 January 2012. Archived from the original on 21 September 2012.