Eurasia Group is a political risk research and consulting firm founded in 1998 by Ian Bremmer, with offices in New York City, Washington, DC, London, Tokyo, São Paulo, San Francisco, Brasilia, and Singapore. The firm provides analysis and expertise about how political developments move markets and shape investment environments across the globe. In 2010, Patrick Tucker of the World Future Society described Eurasia Group as "the world’s largest political-risk consultancy," while Bremmer has been referred to as the "guru" in the field by The Economist and The Wall Street Journal, in addition to being credited with bringing political science as a discipline to financial markets.
Number of locations
|Offices in Washington, DC, London, San Francisco, São Paulo, Singapore, Brasilia, and Tokyo|
|Ian Bremmer, Founder, President|
Maziar Minovi, CEO
Cliff Kupchan, Chairman
Ida Wainschel Cools, CIO
Alexsandra Sanford, CEO, GZERO Media
Nicholas Consonery, Director, Global Markets Research & Strategy
Kevin Rudd, Senior Advisor
Ian Bremmer founded Eurasia Group in 1998. The group was originally based out of a cubicle in the World Policy Institute in New York City. The company subsequently opened offices in London, Washington, DC, Tokyo, San Francisco, São Paulo, Brasilia and Singapore.
In 2001, Bremmer and Eurasia Group created the Global Political Risk Index (GPRI). In 2004, the firm expanded beyond emerging markets to cover frontier markets. Eurasia Group released its first annual Top Risks report in 2006.
Following the 2008 financial crisis, Eurasia Group expanded its coverage to developed markets, starting with the United States and later Europe. It also created a Comparative Analytics practice to develop new products and methodologies for measuring political risk. In 2012, Eurasia Group formed its Emerging Markets Strategy group to analyze trends that cut across emerging markets.
In 2014, Bremmer recruited former heads of state, cabinet ministers, and other persons to Eurasia Group's Senior Advisor program, including former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, former Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta, former United Nations Deputy Secretary-General Mark Malloch Brown, former Canadian Foreign Minister John Baird, and former Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski.
Eurasia Group hosted its first Geopolitical Summit (later named the GZERO Summit) in Tokyo in 2017, using the forum to explore global risks and opportunities facing multinational companies. Two years later, it expanded its GZERO Events platform to include an annual forum in Brazil.
Also in 2017, Eurasia Group launched GZERO Media to create news coverage of global affairs. GZERO Media produces a weekly digital and US national public television show, GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, in which Bremmer explains that week's global stories, conducts interviews, and satirizes current affairs in Puppet Regime, featuring puppets representing world leaders and Bremmer himself.
Top 10 RisksEdit
In 2006, Eurasia Group launched its first Top Risks report and has produced the report every January since then. Available to the general public, the report is a forecast of the key geopolitical risks for the year ahead, along with notable red herrings, issues that, despite media attention, are unlikely to pose a significant threat or drive instability in the coming year. Eurasia Group keeps each Top Risks report posted on its website.
In January 2011, Eurasia Group's Top Risk was the G-Zero world, where "the world's major powers set aside aspirations for global leadership—alone, coordinated, or otherwise—and look primarily inward for their policy priorities. Key institutions that provide global governance become arenas not for collaboration but for confrontation." In a G-Zero world, "The U.S. lacks the resources to continue as primary provider of public goods, and rising powers are too preoccupied with problems at home to welcome the burdens that come with international leadership." The concept gained traction at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos in 2011 as well as in an episode of Planet Money shortly after the 2011 Top Risks report was released. Bremmer expanded on the theme of the G-Zero world in his 2012 book Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World. It has also been covered in The Telegraph and The New York Times. By the time of the 2019 G20 Summit in Osaka, French and Spanish media suggested that the G-Zero world the firm predicted was imminent.
In January 2012, Eurasia Group announced that the "end of the 9/11 era" was its Top Risk for the year. The report described a "world where politics and economics overlap almost entirely" and where investors will become increasingly risk-averse and the baseline of risk becomes exaggerated. Other risks included G-Zero and the Middle East, the Eurozone, the United States during its presidential election year, North Korea, Pakistan, China, Egypt, South Africa, and Venezuela.
In January 2013, Eurasia Group announced that "the era of Emerging Market abundance is finished" and listed volatility in emerging markets as the year's Top Risk. The report broke down emerging markets into those "becoming developed," "still emerging—and problematically so," and "backsliding." In addition, it outlined the downside risk of markets in each category. Also listed as Top Risks in the report were China v. information, Arab summer, Washington politics, JIBs (Japan, Israel, Britain, Europe, East Asian geopolitics, Iran, India, and South Africa.
In 2014, the firm's Top Risk was "America's troubled alliances." The report stated that: "Washington's second-tier allies will begin to shift their international orientation in response to a weakening US foreign policy." Other risks included diverging markets, petrostates, strategic data, and Al Qaeda 2.0.
"The Politics of Europe" was the Top Risk of 2015. That year's report stated, "Europe's economics are in substantially better shape than at the height of the Eurozone crisis, but the politics is now much worse ... That's true on three different levels: bottom-up, intra-EU, and outside-in." It also cited "the weaponization of finance"—a description of the ways the United States uses its influence to affect global outcomes—and weak incumbents among the year’s risks.
In 2016, Eurasia Group's Top Risk was "the hollow alliance," a reference to the trans-Atlantic partnership. The report's authors wrote, "The world’s most important alliance for nearly seventy years ... is now weaker, and less relevant, than at any point in decades". The year's other risks included the rise of technologists, unpredictable leaders, and not enough elections.
The following year, the group predicted in its annual forecast that the trend toward a world without a global leader would continue in 2017. That year's report described the era as "a period of geopolitical recession" and said that the continued "populist revolt" against globalism was evidenced by the United Kingdom's departure from the EU (Brexit) the collapse of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and Donald Trump's election as president of the United States, among other events of 2016.
Returning to the previous year's theme of a geopolitical recession, Eurasia Group predicted in 2018 that the world was "closer to geopolitical depression" than "a reversion to past stability." The year's Top Risk was China's alternative to the leadership vacuum left by the United States, and other risks were the global tech cold war, US-Iran relations, and a new age of protectionism.
In 2019, Eurasia Group's Top Risk was "bad seeds," referring to the fraying of US alliances, erosion of the European Union, and the deepening discord between the world's major economies. The company noted in its 2019 report that "the world’s decision-makers are so consumed with addressing (or failing to address) the daily crises that arise from a world without leadership that they’re allowing a broad array of future risks to germinate, with serious consequences for our collective midterm future." Also on the list were US-Chinese relations, the danger of cyber attacks, European populism, the global innovation winter, and a worldwide coalition of the unwilling.
In 2009, Eurasia Group and NYSE Euronext worked together to provide political risk assessments, analytical information, and publications to New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)-listed companies. On March 18 that year, Eurasia Eurasia Group rang the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange. Later in 2009, Eurasia Group collaborated with KellyOcG on a Global Market Brief and Labor Risk Index.
In 2015, Eurasia Group and Nikko Asset Management announced a joint initiative to develop co-branded investment funds, incorporating political risk analysis into portfolio management and emerging market investments. According to The Wall Street Journal, "this is the first such partnership between the consultancy and an asset manager". That year, the firm also partnered with Intelligent Cyber Research to launch a GeoCyber Risk Index.
The following year, Eurasia Group and New York University launched a joint venture to offer the first executive education program in political risk, and in 2017, Eurasia Group and Globis University in Tokyo partnered for “Strategic Risk Management: Threats and Opportunities in Global Politics,” the firm’s first executive training course in Japan.
In April 2018, Eurasia Group announced it would partner with Good Judgment Inc. to combine superforecasting methodologies co-developed by Philip Tetlock with the firm's knowledge of the global geopolitical landscape.
In March 2007, Eurasia Group acquired the assets of Intellibridge, a Washington, DC-based strategic advisory firm founded by former-National Security Advisor Anthony Lake and David Rothkopf. Terms of the acquisition were not made public, though Intellibridge had received some $28 million in capital since being founded in 1999.
In December 2014, Kevin Rudd, former prime minister of Australia, joined Eurasia Group as a senior advisor. Other senior advisors include former Foreign Affairs Minister of Canada John Baird; former Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations Lord Mark Malloch-Brown, former Foreign Minister of Poland Radek Sikorski, and former Prime Minister of Italy Enrico Letta. Carter Page worked for the firm for three months in 1998. Bremmer later cited Page's stridently pro-Kremlin views as the reason "he wasn't a good fit" for the company.
Eurasia Group has a separate Advisory Board, whose members are heads of industry and finance, many with previous government experience. Notable members include internet visionary Vint Cerf, hedge fund billionaire Kenneth Griffin, Wall Street banker Sallie Krawcheck, former Undersecretary of State Thomas Pickering, and Nikko Asset Management Chairman Takumi Shibata.
- Thompson, Damian (29 September 2006). "Here's how the world works". Retrieved 21 February 2018 – via www.telegraph.co.uk.
- "The new bull market". The Economist. Retrieved 21 February 2018.
- "2020 Visionaries". World Future Society. Archived from the original on 2011-09-26.
- "Beyond economics". The Economist. 2011-02-10. ISSN 0013-0613. Retrieved 2019-08-12.
- Warnock, Eleanor. "Japan's Nikko Asset Adds Political-Risk Analysis With Eurasia Deal". WSJ. Retrieved 2019-08-12.
- Bremmer, James Quinn interviews author Ian (2010-07-10). "The West should fear the growth of state capitalism - Ian Bremmer". ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 2019-08-12.
- "Eurasia Group - Top Risks 2018". www.eurasiagroup.net. Archived from the original on 2010-06-12. Retrieved 21 February 2018.
- [dead link]
- Racanelli, Vito. "Davos: Who or What is G-Zero?". www.barrons.com. Retrieved 2019-08-12.
- "G-Zero". NPR.org. Retrieved 2019-08-12.
- Reece, Damian (2011-01-26). "Davos WEF 2011: East and West must cooperate if we're to survive this economic mess". ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 2019-08-12.
- Khanna, Parag; Leonard, Mark (2011-09-07). "Opinion | Why China Wants a G-3 World". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2019-08-12.
- "Chérie, j'ai rétréci le G20". Les Echos (in French). 2019-06-27. Retrieved 2019-08-12.
- "Del G-20 al G-Zero: por qué es imposible arreglar un mundo sin nadie al volante". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 2019-06-28. Retrieved 2019-08-12.
- "Eurasia Group | Eurasia Group publishes Top Risks for 2012". www.eurasiagroup.net. Retrieved 2019-08-12.
- "Eurasia Group Top 10 Risks 2013". eurasiagroup.net. Archived from the original on 2016-05-11. Retrieved 21 February 2018.
- "Eurasia Group | Eurasia Group publishes Top Risks for 2014". www.eurasiagroup.net. Retrieved 2019-08-12.
- "Eurasia Group | Eurasia Group publishes Top Risks 2015". www.eurasiagroup.net. Retrieved 2019-08-12.
- "Eurasia Group | Top Risks 2016". www.eurasiagroup.net. Retrieved 2019-08-12.
- "Top Risks 2017: The Geopolitical Recession". eurasiagroup.com. Eurasia Group. Retrieved March 25, 2017.
- "Eurasia Group | Top Risks 2018". www.eurasiagroup.net. Retrieved 2019-08-12.
- "Eurasia Group | Top Risks for 2019". www.eurasiagroup.net. Retrieved 2019-08-12.
- "Eurasia Group | Citi Private Bank to provide its clients Eurasia Group's "Global Political Risk Index" for economic and political risk analysis". www.eurasiagroup.net. Retrieved 2019-08-12.
- "Eurasia Group | NYSE Euronext and Eurasia Group partner to provide global political risk assessments to listed issuers". www.eurasiagroup.net. Retrieved 2019-08-12.
- "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 2018-02-22. Retrieved 2017-08-27.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
- "Eurasia Group | Eurasia Group and KellyOCG release Labor Risk Index". www.eurasiagroup.net. Retrieved 2019-08-12.
- "Eurasia Group | Eurasia Group, Nikko Asset Management pair strengths in emerging markets investment". www.eurasiagroup.net. Retrieved 2019-08-12.
- Warnock, Eleanor (9 April 2015). "Japan's Nikko Asset Adds Political-Risk Analysis With Eurasia Deal". Retrieved 21 February 2018 – via www.wsj.com.
- "Eurasia Group | Eurasia Group launches the GeoCyber Risk Index". www.eurasiagroup.net. Retrieved 2019-08-12.
- "Eurasia Group | Eurasia Group announces strategic risk management executive education course with GLOBIS University in Tokyo". www.eurasiagroup.net. Retrieved 2019-08-12.
- "Eurasia Group | Eurasia Group launches egX, a next-generation platform business for geopolitics". 2018-04-05. Retrieved 2018-04-10.
- "Eurasia Group establishes Washington, D.C. Office; Acquires Assets of Intellibridge Corporation". highbeam.com. Retrieved 21 February 2018.[dead link]
- "Eurasia Group - Former Prime Minister of Australia Kevin Rudd joins Eurasia Group as Senior Advisor". www.eurasiagroup.net. Retrieved 21 February 2018.
- "Eurasia Group - Former Canadian Foreign Minister John Baird joins Eurasia Group as Senior Advisor". www.eurasiagroup.net. Retrieved 21 February 2018.
- "Eurasia Group | Former United Nations Deputy Secretary-General Mark Malloch-Brown joins Eurasia Group as Senior Advisor". www.eurasiagroup.net. Retrieved 2019-08-12.
- "Eurasia Group | Former Foreign Minister of Poland Radosław (Radek) Sikorski joins Eurasia Group as Senior Advisor". www.eurasiagroup.net. Retrieved 2019-08-12.
- "Eurasia Group - Former Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta joins Eurasia Group as Senior Advisor". www.eurasiagroup.net. Retrieved 21 February 2018.
- Harding, Luke. "Why Carter Page Was Worth Watching". POLITICO Magazine. Retrieved 2019-08-12.
- "Eurasia Group - Our Story". www.eurasiagroup.net. Retrieved 21 February 2018.