Various research and polling firms conducted opinion polling prior to the 2016 federal election in individual electorates across Australia, in relation to voting intentions in the Australian House of Representatives.
New South Wales edit
| Date | Seat | 2CP vote | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L/NP | ALP | IND | L/NP swing | Seat classification | Sample size | ||
| 25 Jun 2016 | Reid (NSW)[1] | 52% | 48% | −1.3 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Macarthur (NSW)[1] | 50% | 50% | −3.3 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Lindsay (NSW)[1] | 51% | 49% | −2.0 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Gilmore (NSW)[1] | 51% | 49% | −2.8 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Dobell (NSW)[1] | 51% | 49% | +1.2 | Notional marginal ALP | ? | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Banks (NSW)[1] | 52% | 48% | −0.8 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 24 Jun 2016 | Cowper (NSW)[2] | 50% | 50% | −13.2 | Safe L/NP | 628 | |
| 23 Jun 2016 | Eden-Monaro (NSW)[3] | 45% | 55% | −7.9 | Marginal L/NP | 636 | |
| 23 Jun 2016 | Dobell (NSW)[3] | 47% | 53% | −2.8 | Notional marginal ALP | 616 | |
| 23 Jun 2016 | Gilmore (NSW)[3] | 47% | 53% | −6.8 | Marginal L/NP | 632 | |
| 23 Jun 2016 | Lindsay (NSW)[3] | 46% | 54% | −7.0 | Marginal L/NP | 610 | |
| 23 Jun 2016 | Macquarie (NSW)[3] | 46% | 54% | −8.5 | Marginal L/NP | 636 | |
| 23 Jun 2016 | Page (NSW)[3] | 46% | 54% | −7.1 | Marginal L/NP | 647 | |
| 21 Jun 2016 | Eden-Monaro (NSW)[4] | 45% | 55% | −7.9 | Marginal L/NP | 719 | |
| 21 Jun 2016 | Lindsay (NSW)[4] | 51% | 49% | −4.0 | Marginal L/NP | 656 | |
| 21 Jun 2016 | Page (NSW)[4] | 48% | 52% | −5.1 | Marginal L/NP | 788 | |
| 20 Jun 2016 | New England (NSW)[5] | 51% | 49% | −18.5 | Safe L/NP | 523 | |
| 18 Jun 2016 | Robertson (NSW)[6] | 47% | 53% | −6.1 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 18 Jun 2016 | Paterson (NSW)[6] | 43% | 57% | −6.7 | Notional marginal ALP | ? | |
| 17 Jun 2016 | Lindsay (NSW)[7] | 53% | 47% | 0.0 | Marginal L/NP | 502 | |
| 17 Jun 2016 | Robertson (NSW)[7] | 51% | 49% | −2.1 | Marginal L/NP | 537 | |
| 17 Jun 2016 | Macarthur (NSW)[7] | 50% | 50% | −3.3 | Marginal L/NP | 509 | |
| 15 Jun 2016 | Cowper (NSW)[8] | 53.8% | 46.2% | −9.4 | Safe L/NP | 842 | |
| 11 Jun 2016 | Dobell (NSW)[9] | 49% | 51% | −0.8 | Notional marginal ALP | 628 | |
| 11 Jun 2016 | Lindsay (NSW)[9] | 54% | 46% | +1.0 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 31 May 2016 | Wentworth (NSW)[10] | 58% | 42% | −10.9 | Safe L/NP | 626 | |
| 19 May 2016 | Macarthur (NSW)[11] | 49% | 51% | −4.4 | Marginal L/NP | 628 | |
| 14 May 2016 | Macarthur (NSW)[12] | 49% | 51% | −4.3 | Marginal L/NP | 514 | |
| 14 May 2016 | Banks (NSW)[13] | 50% | 50% | −2.8 | Marginal L/NP | 501 | |
| 14 May 2016 | Dobell (NSW)[13] | 50% | 50% | +0.2 | Notional marginal ALP | 504 | |
| 14 May 2016 | Lindsay (NSW)[13] | 54% | 46% | +1.0 | Marginal L/NP | 554 | |
Victoria edit
| Date | Seat | 2CP vote | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L/NP | ALP | GRN | IND | L/NP swing | Seat classification | Sample size | ||
| 25 Jun 2016 | Dunkley (Vic)[14] | 53% | 47% | −2.6 | Marginal L/NP | ? | ||
| 25 Jun 2016 | Corangamite (Vic)[14] | 53% | 47% | −0.9 | Marginal L/NP | ? | ||
| 25 Jun 2016 | Bruce (Vic)[14] | 48% | 52% | −0.2 | Marginal ALP | ? | ||
| 25 Jun 2016 | McEwen (Vic)[14] | 48% | 52% | −1.8 | Marginal ALP | ? | ||
| 20 Jun 2016 | Batman (Vic)[15] | 45% | 55% | N/A | Safe ALP | 1100 | ||
| 17 Jun 2016 | Batman (Vic)[7] | 53% | 47% | N/A | Safe ALP | ? | ||
| 17 Jun 2016 | Corangamite (Vic)[7] | 51% | 49% | −2.9 | Marginal L/NP | 509 | ||
| 17 Jun 2016 | Dunkley (Vic)[7] | 52% | 48% | −3.6 | Marginal L/NP | 500 | ||
| 13 Jun 2016 | Menzies (Vic)[4] | 61% | 39% | −3.4 | Safe L/NP | 719 | ||
| 11 Jun 2016 | Corangamite (Vic)[9] | 51% | 49% | −2.9 | Marginal L/NP | ? | ||
| 11 Jun 2016 | Deakin (Vic)[9] | 52% | 48% | −1.2 | Marginal L/NP | ? | ||
| 3–4 Jun 2016 | Higgins (Vic)[16] | 53% | 47% | −6.9 | Fairly safe L/NP | 1118 | ||
| 26 May 2016 | Corangamite (Vic)[17] | 54% | 46% | +0.1 | Marginal L/NP | 770 | ||
| 13 May 2016 | Dunkley (Vic)[18] | 48% | 52% | −7.6 | Marginal L/NP | ? | ||
Queensland edit
| Date | Seat | 2CP vote | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L/NP | ALP | KAP | L/NP swing | Seat classification | Sample size | ||
| 25 Jun 2016 | Kennedy (Qld)[14] | 42% | 58% | −5.8 | Marginal KAP | ? | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Longman (Qld)[14] | 53% | 47% | −3.9 | Fairly safe L/NP | ? | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Brisbane (Qld)[14] | 52% | 48% | −2.3 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Petrie (Qld)[14] | 46% | 54% | −4.5 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Capricornia (Qld)[14] | 49% | 51% | −1.8 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Griffith (Qld)[14] | 47% | 53% | 0.0 | Marginal ALP | ? | |
| 17 Jun 2016 | Herbert (Qld)[7] | 54% | 46% | −2.2 | Fairly safe L/NP | 505 | |
| 17 Jun 2016 | Capricornia (Qld)[7] | 50% | 50% | −0.8 | Marginal L/NP | 529 | |
| 17 Jun 2016 | Brisbane (Qld)[7] | 51% | 49% | −3.3 | Marginal L/NP | 594 | |
| 11 Jun 2016 | Bonner (Qld)[9] | 56% | 44% | +2.3 | Marginal L/NP | ? | |
| 2 Jun 2016 | Longman (Qld)[19] | 50% | 50% | −6.9 | Fairly safe L/NP | 836 | |
Western Australia edit
| Date | Seat | 2CP vote | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L/NP | ALP | L/NP swing | Seat classification | Sample size | ||
| 18 Jun 2016 | Pearce (WA)[6] | 51% | 49% | −8.3 | Fairly safe L/NP | ? |
| 18 Jun 2016 | Hasluck (WA)[6] | 50% | 50% | −6.0 | Fairly safe L/NP | ? |
| 17 Jun 2016 | Burt (WA)[7] | 48% | 52% | −8.1 | Fairly safe L/NP | ? |
| 16 Jun 2016 | Hasluck (WA)[20] | 53% | 47% | −3.0 | Fairly safe L/NP | 753 |
| 11 Jun 2016 | Cowan (WA)[9] | 50% | 50% | −4.5 | Marginal L/NP | ? |
| 10 May 2016 | Cowan (WA)[21] | 49% | 51% | −5.5 | Marginal L/NP | 731 |
South Australia edit
| Date | Seat | 2CP vote | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L/NP | ALP | NXT | L/NP swing | Seat classification | Sample size | ||
| 29 Jun 2016 | Adelaide (SA)[22] | 47% | 53% | +0.9 | Marginal ALP | 518 | |
| 29 Jun 2016 | Port Adelaide (SA)[22] | 33% | 67% | −3.0 | Safe ALP | 500+ | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Hindmarsh (SA)[14] | 50% | 50% | −1.9 | Marginal L/NP | 500+ | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Boothby (SA)[14] | 53% | 47% | −4.1 | Fairly safe L/NP | 500+ | |
| 20 Jun 2016 | Barker (SA)[23] | 48% | 52% | −18.6 | Safe L/NP | 869 | |
| 20 Jun 2016 | Adelaide (SA)[24] | 51% | 49% | +4.9 | Marginal ALP | 364 | |
| 17 Jun 2016 | Sturt (SA)[25] | 58% | 42% | −2.1 | Safe L/NP | 596 | |
| 16 Jun 2016 | Mayo (SA)[7] | 48% | 52% | −14.5 | Safe L/NP | 681 | |
| 11 Jun 2016 | Mayo (SA)[9] | 45.7% | 54.3% | −16.8 | Safe L/NP | ? | |
| 9 Jun 2016 | Grey (SA)[26] | 46% | 54% | −17.5 | Safe L/NP | 665 | |
| 22 May 2016 | Sturt (SA)[13] | 51% | 49% | −9.1 | Safe L/NP | 762 | |
| 16 May 2016 | Mayo (SA)[13] | 48.5% | 51.5% | −14.0 | Safe L/NP | 681 | |
Tasmania edit
| Date | Seat | 2CP vote | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L/NP | ALP | IND | L/NP swing | Seat classification | Sample size | ||
| 25 Jun 2016 | Bass (Tas)[1] | 50% | 50% | −4.0 | Marginal L/NP | 538 | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Braddon (Tas)[1] | 50% | 50% | −2.6 | Marginal L/NP | 566 | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Denison (Tas)[1] | 35% | 63% | N/A | Safe IND | 552 | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Franklin (Tas)[1] | 41% | 59% | −3.9 | Marginal ALP | 550 | |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Lyons (Tas)[1] | 45% | 55% | −6.2 | Marginal L/NP | 540 | |
| 17 Jun 2016 | Bass (Tas)[7] | 52% | 48% | −2.0 | Marginal L/NP | 517 | |
| 31 May 2016 | Bass (Tas)[27] | 49% | 51% | −5.0 | Marginal L/NP | 824 | |
| 15 May 2016 | Denison (Tas)[28] | 34% | 66% | N/A | Safe IND | 596 | |
| 15 May 2016 | Bass (Tas)[29] | 51% | 49% | −3.0 | Marginal L/NP | 632 | |
| 15 May 2016 | Lyons (Tas)[29] | 51% | 49% | −0.2 | Marginal L/NP | 602 | |
| 15 May 2016 | Franklin (Tas)[29] | 46% | 54% | +1.1 | Marginal ALP | 597 | |
| 15 May 2016 | Braddon (Tas)[29] | 53% | 47% | +0.4 | Marginal L/NP | 592 | |
Northern Territory edit
| Date | Seat | 2CP vote | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L/NP | ALP | L/NP swing | Seat classification | Sample size | ||
| 22−23 Jun 2016 | Solomon (NT)[30] | 39% | 61% | −12.4 | Marginal L/NP | 513 |
References edit
- Notes
- Citations
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k "ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition – the Poll Bludger". 25 June 2016. Retrieved 25 June 2016.
- ^ "ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition - The Poll Bludger". 24 June 2016. Retrieved 24 June 2016.
- ^ a b c d e f Another electorate polling round-up: Poll Bludger 23 June 2016
- ^ a b c d Electorate polling round-up: Poll Bludger 21 June 2016
- ^ "Nocookies". The Australian. Retrieved 27 June 2016.
- ^ a b c d "Highlights of week six - The Poll Bludger". Blogs.crikey.com.au. Retrieved 27 June 2016.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l "Nocookies". The Australian. Retrieved 27 June 2016.
- ^ Paul Karp (15 June 2016). "Rob Oakeshott 'uplifted' after poll shows large swing against Nationals | Australia news". The Guardian. Retrieved 27 June 2016.
- ^ a b c d e f g Mark Kenny (11 June 2016). "2016 election polls: Labor behind, Xenophon candidates set to displace Liberals". Smh.com.au. Retrieved 15 June 2016.
- ^ Malcolm Turnbull facing 10% swing in Wentworth as his popularity plummets: SMH 5 June 2016
- ^ "7 News – Macarthur Poll: ReachTEL 19 May 2016". Archived from the original on 20 September 2016. Retrieved 2 July 2016.
- ^ "Galaxy: 54-46 to federal Coalition in Queensland – The Poll Bludger". Blogs.crikey.com.au. Retrieved 15 June 2016.
- ^ a b c d e No Cookies | The Advertiser
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition
- ^ Richard Willingham (20 June 2016). "Federal election 2016: Poll points to Greens Batman win". Theage.com.au. Retrieved 27 June 2016.
- ^ Mark Hawthorne (13 June 2016). "Federal election 2016: Shock poll result for Kelly O'Dwyer. Is Higgins the 'Indi of 2016'?". Smh.com.au. Retrieved 15 June 2016.
- ^ 7 News – Corangamite Poll: ReachTEL 26 May 2016
- ^ Libs struggling in Dunkley without Billson: The Australian 13 May 2016
- ^ 7 News – Longman poll – 2 July 2016: ReachTEL
- ^ "Blog". ReachTEL. 17 June 2016. Retrieved 27 June 2016.
- ^ Barnett backlash dents hopes of WA Liberals: The West Australian 2 Jun 2016
- ^ a b Kate Ellis and Mark Butler expected to keep their seats, The Advertiser poll shows: The Advertiser 30 June 2016
- ^ Election 2016: Malcolm Turnbull could lose another seat to independent Nick Xenophon’s team - Herald Sun 20 June 2016
- ^ Labor frontbencher Kate Ellis headed for defeat to Liberals in Adelaide, ALP poll shows: The Advertiser 20 June 2016
- ^ No Cookies | The Advertiser
- ^ "Blog". ReachTEL. 10 June 2016. Archived from the original on 21 September 2016. Retrieved 15 June 2016.
- ^ Narrow margins for Nikolic in Bass: poll – 9news.com.au 3 Jun 2016
- ^ "ReachTEL Tasmanian electorates polling – The Poll Bludger". Blogs.crikey.com.au. Retrieved 15 June 2016.
- ^ a b c d "Category". The Mercury. 14 May 2016. Retrieved 15 June 2016.
- ^ An independent poll shows Solomon MP Natasha Griggs will struggle to retain her seat at the federal election: NT News (News Ltd) 27 June 2016