Conservative Party of Canada leadership election, 2017

Next Conservative Party of Canada leadership election
Conservative leadership election, 2017
Date May 27, 2017
Convention Toronto Congress Centre
Resigning leader Stephen Harper
Won by TBD
Candidates 14 (preliminary)
Entrance Fee C$100,000
($50,000 of which is a refundable compliance deposit)[1]
Spending limit $5,000,000

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The 2017 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election will be held on May 27, 2017. Party members will choose a successor to Stephen Harper, who led the Conservative Party of Canada as its leader from 2004 following the merger of the Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative parties. Harper led the party through five federal elections: the party increased its seat count in the House of Commons in 2004, formed two minority governments in 2006, and 2008, and then a majority government in 2011. Following the defeat of his party at the 2015 federal election on October 19, Harper tendered his resignation as party leader.[2] In a statement, Conservative Party President John Walsh said he had spoken to Harper, "and he has instructed me to reach out to the newly elected parliamentary caucus to appoint an Interim Leader and to implement the leadership selection process."[3]

Contents

Interim leadershipEdit

Conservative Party president John Walsh's letter to caucus stated that only Members of Parliament (MPs) would vote for the interim leader, but Conservative Senators pointed out that the party constitution states that the entire parliamentary caucus votes.[4][5] The caucus allowed Senators to vote, declining to adopt the provisions of the Reform Act that would have only allowed MPs to vote.[6][7]

The caucus chose Rona Ambrose, MP for Sturgeon River—Parkland, Alberta and former Minister of Health, as interim leader at its first meeting on November 5, 2015 in a vote by preferential ballot.[8][9][10] Ambrose, as the interim leader, will also serve as Leader of Her Majesty's Official Opposition in the Parliament of Canada until a permanent leader is chosen. She defeated Candice Bergen, Diane Finley, Mike Lake, Rob Nicholson, Erin O'Toole, and the joint ticket of Denis Lebel and Michelle Rempel in the caucus vote.[11][12][13][10][14]

Under the party's constitution, Ambrose, as the interim leader, may not run for the permanent position.[12]

Leadership election timingEdit

Following Harper's resignation, debate emerged within the Conservative Party regarding the timing of the leadership election. Some members of the party's national council called for a leadership convention as early as May 2016 according to Maclean's magazine.[15] However, interim leader Rona Ambrose has said there is a consensus among the party's caucus that the leadership election shouldn't be rushed and should be held sometime in 2017.[16][17][17][18] In a December 2015 interview, Ambrose said the party would take its time allowing all members, including those not already involved in politics, to build a strong candidacy. "If we take a little extra time, that will mean we'll have a better leadership race."[19]

The Conservative Party's Leadership Election Organizing Committee (LEOC) met at Toronto's Albany Club January 15–17, 2016 to discuss the process for the Party to elect its next leader. Among its decisions, LEOC selected May 27, 2017 for Conservative Party members to elect their next leader.[20]

RulesEdit

Only party members in good standing at 5pm Eastern Time on March 28, 2017 will be allowed to vote.[1][21] The fee for a party membership was raised from $15 to $25, an increase that was reversed on April 23, 2016 after criticisms that the move was "elitist".[22] Membership fees can only be paid via personal cheque or credit card. Cash payments will not be permitted. This new requirement is intended to prevent the election being dominated by new members, and to prevent anyone other than the individual member, such as a candidate's campaign, from signing up scores of members and paying the membership fees in cash out of campaign funds.[23]

Voting will be on a one member one vote basis using a ranked ballot; however votes will be calculated so that each electoral district have equal weight with each electoral district allocated 100 points.[24] Candidates will be assigned a point total based on his or her percentage of the vote in each electoral district. To win, a candidate must receive at least 16,901 points which would be a majority.[1][25]

To register, candidates must:[1]

  • be members of the party for at least six months (can be waived),
  • submit nomination forms signed by 300 party members from at least 30 electoral districts in at least seven different provinces and territories,
  • pay a $50,000 non-refundable entrance fee, half of which must be paid when filing nomination with the other half due by the close of nominations on February 24, 2017.[26][27]
  • pay an additional $50,000 compliance deposit, by December 31, 2016 or when filing nomination for those who register in 2017, which is refundable provided the candidate complies with campaign rules.[26][27]
  • and fill out a 40-page questionnaire that asks for:
    • references,
    • criminal background and credit checks,
    • agreement with basic party principles,
    • a list of social media accounts,
    • questions about possible controversial positions the candidate has taken in the past, and
    • questions about affiliations and personal associations and behaviour that may be problematic.

A party committee reviews the candidate's nomination form and may disqualify a potential candidate.[28] Candidates are allowed to spend a maximum of $5 million on their campaigns.[29]

TimelineEdit

  • October 19, 2015 – Federal election results in defeat of Conservative government. As Harper spoke to supporters in Calgary, making no reference to his future, a statement was released by the party announcing Harper's resignation as party leader and his request that an interim leader be chosen to lead the party in parliament until a leadership election can be held.[2]
  • November 4, 2015 – Harper resigns as prime minister; Liberal government led by Justin Trudeau sworn in.[30]
  • November 5, 2015 – Conservative caucus held its first meeting since the 2015 federal election[31] and chose former health minister[32] Rona Ambrose interim leader of the party.[4]
  • December 4–5, 2015 – National Council meets, 20-member Leadership Election Organization Committee appointed, including seven members of the National Council and MP Diane Finley, all of whom have pledged to be neutral during the leadership campaign; Dan Nowlan is appointed the committee's chair.[16][17]
  • January 15–17, 2016 – The Leadership Election Organization Committee meets at the Albany Club in Toronto to decide on the date of the leadership vote, the deadline for candidates to be nominated, campaign spending limits, the entrance fee for candidates and the appeals process for any disputes.[33]
  • May 26–28, 2016 – Conservative Party national policy convention, held at the Vancouver Convention Centre, voted on policy resolutions and elected the party president and other officials.[17] An attempt to change the party constitution to allow the party's interim leader, Rona Ambrose, to seek the permanent leadership is defeated.[34]
  • September 12, 2016 – Former Foreign Minister Peter MacKay, who had been leading public opinion polls as the most popular potential leader, announces that he will not be a candidate for they party's leadership.
  • November 2, 2016 – Only those who have registered as candidates by this date, including having paid at least $25,000 of the candidate deposit, are permitted to participate in the first leadership debate, to be held the following week. 12 candidates meet this deadline.[35]
  • November 9, 2016 – First of five official leadership debates organized by the LEOC, held in Saskatoon.[36]
  • November 13, 2016 – Leadership debate organized by the Carleton Conservative Association, held in Greely, Ontario[37]
  • December 6, 2016 – Second official debate held in Moncton in English and French.[38]
  • December 31, 2016 – Deadline for candidates who filed their nomination papers in 2016 to have paid $50,000 compliance fee.[26]
  • January 17, 2017, 6:30 pm – Third official debate held in Quebec City in French at the Quebec Convention Centre. The themes covered will be government and taxes.[39][40]
  • February 4, 2017 – Leadership debate orgranized by the Progressive Conservative Party of Nova Scotia was held in Halifax, Nova Scotia. The first debate involving the presumed front runner Kevin O'Leary.[41]
  • February 24, 2017, 5pm ET (UTC-5) – Nomination period closes; deadline for candidates to pay any remaining balance of entrance fee.[1]
  • February 24, 2017 – Leadership debate organized by the Manning Centre for Building Democracy, held in Ottawa, Ontario[42]
  • February 28, 2017 – Fourth official debate, held in Edmonton at the Maclab Theatre in English and French.[39]
  • March 28, 2017, 5pm ET (UTC-5) – Members who have joined by this date are eligible to vote.[1]
  • May 27, 2017 – Leadership election is held.[20]

DebatesEdit

Debates among candidates for the 2017 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election
No. Date Time Place Host Participants
 P  Participant.  I  Invitee.
 N  Non-invitee.  A  Absent invitee.  O  Out of race (exploring or withdrawn).
Alexander Bernier Blaney Chong Clement Leitch Lemieux Lindsay Obhrai O'Leary O'Toole Peterson Raitt Saxton Scheer Snow Trost
Conservative Party of Canada leadership election debates
1 November 9, 2016 6 p.m. CST Delta Bessborough
Saskatoon, SK
Conservative Party of Canada P P P P O P N P P O P N P P P N P
2 November 13, 2016 1 p.m. EST Orchard View Wedding & Event Center
Ottawa, ON
Carleton Conservative Association P P A P O A N A P O P N P P P N P
3 December 6, 2016 7:30 p.m. AST Crowne Plaza
Moncton, NB
Conservative Party of Canada P P P P O P P P P O P P P P P N P
4 January 17, 2017 6:30 p.m. EST Hôtel Hilton
Quebec City, QC
Conservative Party of Canada P P P P O P P O P O P P P P P O P
5 February 4, 2017 6 p.m. EST The Westin Nova Scotian
Halifax, NS
Progressive Conservative Party of Nova Scotia P P P P O P P O P P P P P P P O P
6 February 13, 2017 7 p.m. EST Holiday Inn Express & Suites Montreal Airport
Montreal, QC
Lac-Saint-Louis Conservative Association
Pierrefonds-Dollard Conservative Association
P P P P O P N O A P P P P P P O N
7 February 24, 2017 3 p.m. EST Shaw Centre
Ottawa, ON
Manning Centre P P P P O P P O P P P P P P P O P
8 February 28, 2017 6 p.m. MST Maclab Theatre
Edmonton, AB
Conservative Party of Canada P P P P O P P O P A P P P P P O P
9 April 26, 2017 6 p.m. EST St. Lawrence Centre for the Arts
Toronto, ON
Conservative Party of Canada O O O

Registered candidatesEdit

Candidates who have paid their entrance fee and compliance deposit and filed their nomination papers:[43]

Chris AlexanderEdit

 
Chris Alexander
Background

Chris Alexander, 48, is the former Minister of Citizenship and Immigration (2013–2015),[44] and the former MP for Ajax—Pickering, Ontario (2011–2015). Prior to entering politics, he was the Canadian Ambassador to Afghanistan from 2003 to 2005.[45]

Date campaign announced: October 12, 2016[46]
Supporters
  • MPs:
  • Senators:
  • Provincial politicians:
  • Municipal politicians:
  • Former MPs:
  • Former Senators:
  • Former provincial politicians:
  • Former municipal politicians:
  • Other prominent individuals:
  • Organizations:
  • Media:
Other information
His campaign is expected to focus on foreign policy and the economy. He believes that immigration is the key to "economic growth."[44] Is proposing to increase immigration to 400,000 a year[44] including 40,000 refugees and calling for doubling defence spending and "for an accelerated push to settle all outstanding land claims and to sign treaties with First Nations communities that would empower them to govern themselves".[46] Was prominent in the Conservative government's handling of the Syrian refugee crisis and in the government's promise during the 2015 election to create a telephone tip line to report so-called "barbaric cultural practices."[47] As minister, he was criticized over delays in meeting the government's commitment to resettle Syrian refugees.[48]

Maxime BernierEdit

 
Maxime Bernier
Background

Maxime Bernier, 54, is the MP for Beauce, Quebec (2006–present) and was the Shadow Minister of Innovation (2015—2016). He served in the Harper government as Minister of State for Small Business and Tourism (2011–2015), Minister of Foreign Affairs (2007–2008), and Minister of Industry (2006–2007),[49][50][51][52] Bernier is considered a libertarian and advocate of limited government.[44][53][54][55] This has caused him to be nicknamed "Mad Max", the "Bloc-Buster", or the "Albertan from Quebec" by his Ottawa colleagues.[56] Prior to entering federal politics in 2006 Bernier, a lawyer by training, was vice-president of the Standard Life of Canada Insurance company, MEI, and manager of corporate and international relations at the Commission des valeurs mobilières du Québec.[57]

Date candidacy announced: April 7, 2016[58]
Supporters
Other information
  • Calls for ending federal transfer payments to the provinces for health care by replacing it with a health transfer point, encourage provinces to move away from a single-payer healthcare system to a two-tier healthcare system, balance the budget within two years then reduce the number of tax brackets from five to three being paid by "boutique" tax credits.[94]. This tax plan would include raising the basic exemption from $11474 to $15000, removing about 1.5 million low income Canadians from the federal tax rolls. It would create a 15% flat tax for incomes of $15001 to $100000, which comprises more than 80% of all Canadian taxpayers. For those making above $100000 a 25% flat tax would apply.[95] This tax plan would be introduced after the Federal deficit is eliminated.
  • Supports the legalization/decriminalization of marijuana.[96] Wants to end "corporate welfare" (business subsidies).[97] Calls for smaller government, lower taxes, and paying down the national debt.[98] Opposes bailout to any corporation. Allow MPs to vote their conscience. Supports the cancellation of the Saudi Arms deal. Opposes a "Canadian values" test on the basis that it is logistically ineffective to fight terrorism. Protect Canadian Manufacturing by keeping tariffs with other countries for five years after every trade deal, then within those years create a favorable condition for manufacturers before removing the tariffs. Abolish the Canadian Radio-television Telecommunications Commission, privatizing Canada Post Corporation, ending supply management on dairy and poultry,[44] and expanding free trade.[99] Supports abolishing capital gains taxes, and lowering corporate taxes to 10% by getting rid of corporate welfare.[100] Opposes a national tax on carbon emissions. Wants to get rid of omnibus bills and supports building pipeline.[101][102]
  • Advocates reversing the Liberal government's $150 million budget increase to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation as well as forbidding the CBC from selling commercial time, which provides $250 million in funding, and require it instead to rely on corporate sponsorship and fundraising as the PBS and NPR in the United States does. Would also stop the CBC from "unfairly" competing with the private sector by changing its mandate so as to end it from hosting sports programming, music streaming, game shows, or other programming that competes with commercial fare and refocus the CBC's mandate so that it concentrates primarily on public affairs.[103] He also wants to "break" Quebec's maple syrup cartel and wants to allow foreign owership for the airline industry.[44] He wants to "streamline the process for hiring specialized workers abroad".[48] He wants to put "slightly" more emphasis on economic immigration and "slightly reduce" family reunification class immigration.[48] He would accept “slightly” fewer, with more privately sponsored and fewer government sponsored.[48] Bernier believes that the Indian Act should be "abolished, or changed."[104]

Steven BlaneyEdit

 
Steven Blaney
Background

Steven Blaney, 51, was the Shadow Minister of Public Works and Government Services (2015–2016) for the Conservative Opposition, and is the former Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness (2013–2015), Minister of Veterans Affairs (2011–2013). He is the MP for Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis, Quebec (2015–present) and Lévis—Bellechasse, Quebec (2006-2015).

Date campaign announced: October 23, 2016[105]
Supporters
Other information
Supports banning the wearing of the niqab while voting, taking the citizenship oath, or by federal public servants,[44] even if such a ban would require invoking the notwithstanding clause of the Constitution in order to override the Charter of Rights and Freedoms.[108] Also advocates testing would be citizens on their "their understanding and appreciation of Canada's core principles."[109] He wants to "beef up" screening.[48] The number of immigrants he wants to bring in will be based upon labour-market studies.[48]

Michael ChongEdit

 
Michael Chong
Background

Michael Chong, 45, is the MP for Wellington—Halton Hills, Ontario (2004–present) and was the Deputy Shadow Minister of the Environment (2015-2016). He was Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs and Youth (2006)[44] and Minister of Sport (2006). Chong resigned from the Harper cabinet in 2006 to protest the government's recognition of the Québécois as a nation within Canada.[44] As a backbench MP he advocated democratic reforms in Parliament to limit the power of the Prime Minister's Office and party leaders over their caucuses and individual MPs and introduced the Reform Act to give caucuses the option of the power to remove party leaders, elect caucus chairs, and expel or readmit MPs, and elect interim leaders.[6][110][111][112] He was a member of the Progressive Conservative Party at the time of the merger.[44]

Date campaign announced: May 16, 2016[113]
Supporters
Other information
  • Advocates modernizing democratic institutions and strengthening the independence of MPs and parliamentary committees.[113] Supports lower taxes, and carbon pricing to combat climate change.[99] Climate change is the "centrepiece" of his leadership campaign.[44] The carbon pricing would be revenue neutral.[44] Believes that Canada needs an evidence-based immigration policy that would put economic interests at the forefront. He has criticized face-to-face values screening as a divisive tactic.[48]

Kellie LeitchEdit

 
Kellie Leitch
Background

Kellie Leitch, 46, is the MP for Simcoe—Grey, Ontario (2011–present), and was the Shadow Minister of Health (2015–2016). In the Harper cabinet she was Minister of Labour and the Status of Women (2013–2015).[44][51][52][136][137][138][139] She is an orthopaedic pediatric surgeon at SickKids Hospital and an associate professor at the University of Toronto.[44][140]

Date campaign announced: April 6, 2016[141]
Supporters
Other information
  • Opposes the legalization/decriminalization of marijuana.[96] Opposes a national tax on carbon emissions.[156] Has suggested screening prospective immigrants using a "Canadian values" test.[47] Described Donald J. Trump's win of the American presidency as an "exciting message and one that we need delivered in Canada as well."[157] Urged by hundreds of health professionals to honour her medical oath and work against Canada's controversial asbestos industry,[158] remained silent on the issue.[159] Calls for the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation to be defunded and dismantled with the exception of the provision of emergency services to rural and remote parts of Canada.[160]

Pierre LemieuxEdit

 
Pierre Lemieux
Background

Pierre Lemieux, 53, is the former MP for Glengarry—Prescott—Russell, Ontario (2006–2015). In the Harper government he was the Parliamentary Secretary for Official Languages (2007–2008), Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Agriculture (2008–2015), and Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Veterans Affairs (2015).[161]

Date campaign announced: August 22, 2016[161]
Supporters
Other information
  • Running as a social conservative, highlighting his opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage.[44][161] Lemieux does not believe that screening will make Canada safer.[48] In March 2017, Pierre Lemieux received a rating of C- from the Canadian Coalition for Firearms Rights for his policies on firearms ownership in Canada. [164]

Deepak ObhraiEdit

 
Deepak Obhrai
Background

Deepak Obhrai, 66, is the MP for Calgary Forest Lawn, Alberta (2015–present), and represented Calgary East, Alberta (1997–2015), was Shadow Minister of International Development (2015–2016), and is the Dean of the Conservative Caucus. In the Harper government he was the Parliamentary Secretary for Foreign Affairs (2006–2015).[165][166][167]

Date campaign announced: July 14, 2016[168]
Supporters
Other information
  • Advocates a more inclusive party.[168] Had promised to withdraw in favour of Peter MacKay if he were to run.[168] He wants to increase the number of privately sponsored refugees and cut the number of government-sponsored refugees.[48]

Kevin O'LearyEdit

 
Kevin O'Leary

Kevin O'Leary, 62, is a businessman, investor, journalist, writer, financial commentator and television personality.[52][173][174][175]

Date campaign announced: January 18, 2017[176]
Supporters
Other information

O'Leary confirmed that he would embrace LGBTQI people, legalize marijuana and defend reproductive rights.[24]

Erin O'TooleEdit

 
Erin O'Toole
Background

Erin O'Toole, 44, is the MP for Durham, Ontario (2012–present) and was Shadow Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness (2015–2016) for the Conservative Party in Opposition. Previously, he served as Minister of Veterans Affairs (2015).[186][187]

Date campaign announced: October 14, 2016[188]
Supporters
Other information

O'Toole policies wants to give tax credits for youth underemployment and student debt.[44] He wants to restructure temporary foreign worker and provincial nominee programs.[44]

Rick PetersonEdit

Background

Rick Peterson, 61, venture capitalist, principal Peterson Capital, former candidate for leadership of the British Columbia Conservative Party,[44] party fundraiser.[218]

Date campaign announced: October 18, 2016[219]
Supporters
Other information
Advocates eliminating corporate income taxes.[219] Raising the GST to 9%.[citation needed] Supports boosting terrorist surveillance and enhance security screening for immigrants.[219]

Lisa RaittEdit

 
Lisa Raitt
Background

Lisa Raitt, 48, is the MP for Milton, Ontario (2015–present), previously Halton, Ontario (2008–2015) and the former Shadow Minister of Finance (2015–2016), Minister of Transport (2013–2015), Minister of Labour (2010–2013), Minister of Natural Resources (2008–2010), President and CEO of the Toronto Port Authority (2002–2008).[49][52][137][222] Stepped down from shadow cabinet on October 14, 2016, to prepare for leadership bid.[223]

Date campaign announced: November 2, 2016[224][225]
Supporters
Other information
Opposes Leitch's proposal to screen immigrants for "anti-Canadian values".[254] She will "introduce balanced budgets, repeal carbon pricing legislation and prioritize the development of Canada's natural resources."[44]

Andrew SaxtonEdit

 
Andrew Saxton
Background

Andrew Saxton, 53, is the former Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Finance (2013–2015), Parliamentary Secretary to the President of the Treasury Board and for Western Economic Diversification (2011–2013), MP for North Vancouver (2008–2015), former chief executive officer of King George Financial Corporation.[255]

Date campaign announced: October 18, 2016[219]
Supporters
Other information

Saxton's campaign is an economic platform.[44] He plans on lowering taxes and balancing the budget.[44]

Andrew ScheerEdit

 
Andrew Scheer
Background

Andrew Scheer, 37, Opposition House Leader (2015–2016), MP for Regina—Qu'Appelle, Saskatchewan (2004–present), Speaker of the House of Commons (2011–2015).[44]

Date campaign announced: September 28, 2016[259]
Supporters
Other information

Running as an "unapologetic" Conservative who can unite all wings of the party.[296][297] He is "committed" to lower taxes,[44] fiscal responsibility,[44] and "compassion". Scheer believes that there should be a "more robust screening process."[298] Scheer is pro–life, but doesn't intend to bring any legislation on the topic.[298] Scheer advocates for immigration based process, economic indicators, and "what our society needs."[48]

Brad TrostEdit

 
Brad Trost
Background

Brad Trost, 42, MP for Saskatoon—University, Saskatchewan (2015–present), had represented Saskatoon—Humboldt, Saskatchewan (2004-2015), and was appointed Official Opposition Critic for Canada-U.S. Relations (2015–2016) following the 2015 election. Prior to election, Trost worked as an exploration geophysicist (prospector) in natural resources extraction in the north. He was also an active participant in his family's mixed grain, oilseeds and beef cattle farm operation. In his first Parliament, he founded the Conservative Party Energy Caucus and pushed for the re-creation of the Standing Committee on Natural Resources. He has served on the Standing Committees on International Trade and on Industry, and was elected vice-chair of the Canada-U.S. Parliamentary Association.[299]

Date campaign announced: August 16, 2016[300]
Supporters
Other information
  • Running as a social conservative, opposes a carbon tax, transgender bathrooms, tax increases generally, assisted suicide and abortion, deficit financing, and legalization of marijuana. Has been outspoken against abortion and against same-sex marriage and argued unsuccessfully at the 2016 Conservative policy convention to retain the party's definition of marriage as "the Union of one man and one woman".[301][302] Advocates privatization of the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation.[103]

Withdrawn candidatesEdit

Tony ClementEdit

 
Tony Clement
Background

Tony Clement, 56, is the MP for Parry Sound—Muskoka, Ontario (2006–present) and has been Shadow Minister of Foreign Affairs (2015–2016), President of the Treasury Board (2011–2015), Minister of Industry (2008–2011), Minister of Health (2006–2008), and a 2004 leadership candidate, placing third. He was an MPP in the Ontario legislature (1995–2003) and a provincial cabinet minister (1997–2003) under Premiers Mike Harris and Ernie Eves. Clement also ran for the leadership of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario in 2002, placing third.[49][51][52][136][303]

Date campaign announced: July 12, 2016[304]
Date withdrawn: October 12, 2016[305]
Supporters
Other information

Daniel LindsayEdit

Background

Daniel Lindsay, 60, president of the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Manitoba, radiologist, has done five tours as a civilian medical specialist with the Canadian Armed Forces, including in Kandahar, Afghanistan.[312]

Date campaign announced: May 25, 2016[313][314]
Date withdrawn: December 28, 2016[315]
Supporters
  • MPs:
  • Senators: (1) Betty Unger (Alberta)[316]
  • Provincial politicians:
  • Municipal politicians:
  • Former MPs:
  • Former Senators:
  • Former provincial politicians:
  • Former municipal politicians:
  • Other prominent individuals:
  • Organizations:
  • Media:
Other information
Withdrew after he was unable to fundraise enough money to meet December 31 deadline for paying the party the $50,000 leadership campaign compliance fee.[26][315]
Later endorsed Erin O'Toole.[216]

Adrienne SnowEdit

Background

Adrienne Snow, 49, Toronto-based communications consultant, former director of policy for National Foundation for Family Research and Education. Former executive director of Centre for the Study of Civic Renewal. Announced on August 23, 2016 that she intended to be a candidate but failed to register and announced in January that she was ending her campaign.[317]

Date campaign announced: August 23, 2016[317]
Date withdrawn: January 4, 2017[318]

DeclinedEdit

Opinion pollingEdit

The polls below were conducted before nominations for the leadership closed and therefore include potential candidates for the leadership race. Rona Ambrose, as interim leader, is ineligible to run for the permanent leadership unless there is a change to the party's constitution.

Conservative Party membersEdit

Polling firm/Link Last date
of polling
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Alexander
Maxime
Bernier
Steven
Blaney
Michael
Chong
Kellie
Leitch
Pierre
Lemieux
Kevin
O'Leary
Erin
O'Toole
Lisa
Raitt
Andrew
Scheer
Brad
Trost
Other/
Undecided
Mainstreet Research/Ipolitics March 19, 2017 1105 ±2.8% 3.05% 14.73% 2.70% 5.48% 16.89% 1.53% 22.10% 2.88% 7.82% 9.16% 1.62% Undecided 11.05%

Deepak Obhrai 0.45%
Rick Peterson 0.36%
Andrew Saxton 0.18%

Mainstreet Research/Ipolitics March 11, 2017 1607 ±2.26% 1.97% 19.29% 2.55% 3.73% 8.53% 2.18% 23.65% 4.23% 7.78% 10.33% 3.24% Undecided 11.45%
Andrew Saxton 0.68%

Deepak Obhrai 0.25%
Rick Peterson 0.19%

Mainstreet Research/Ipolitics March 4, 2017 839 ±3.37% 2.15% 19.07% 2.38% 3.81% 6.32% 2.26% 23.96% 2.62% 7.15% 7.87% 2.15% Undecided 18.12%
Andrew Saxton 1.07%

Deepak Obhrai 0.60%
Rick Peterson 0.48%

Mainstreet Research/Ipolitics February 24, 2017 1,457 ±2.55% 1.99% 18.91% 3.51% 3.71% 7.50% 1.93% 22.49% 4.47% 7.29% 7.36% 1.79% Undecided 17.95%
Andrew Saxton 0.55%

Rick Peterson 0.34%

Deepak Obhrai 0.21%

Mainstreet Research/Ipolitics February 17, 2017 1,894 ± 2.24% 2.8% 15.3% 3.3% 5.7% 16.2% 3.1% 20.9% 4.1% 6.5% 9.9% 1.1% Undecided 7.0%
Deepak Obhrai 1.8%
Rick Peterson 1.6%
Andrew Saxton 0.8%
Mainstreet Research/Ipolitics February 12, 2017 804 ± 3.5% 6.09% 17.54% 1.24% 2.86% 20.90% 2.36% 22.01% 3.36% 3.48% 4.60% 1.74% Undecided 11.82%
Andrew Saxton 0.75%
Deepak Obhrai 0.62%
Rick Peterson 0.62%
Mainstreet Research/Ipolitics February 3, 2017 5,487 ± 1.3% 8.9% 16.55% 3.95% 4.55% 10.83% 2.24% 24.75% 3.06% 6.35% 4.57% 1.89% Undecided 10.63%
Andrew Saxton 0.62%
Deepak Obhrai 0.55%
Rick Peterson 0.55%
Forum Research January 21, 2017 111 ± 3.0% 4% 10% 2% 5% 7% 31% 14% 8% Someone else 18%
Forum Research December 7, 2016 65 ± 3.0% 9% 2% 4% 10% 8% 12% 2% 5% Someone else 48%
Forum Research May 11, 2016 118 ± 3.0% 11% 4% 23% 2% Someone else 23%
Peter MacKay 16%
Rona Ambrose 12%
Jason Kenney 9%
Forum Research April 5, 2016 112 ± 3.0% 9% 1% 28% 2% Someone else 24%
Peter MacKay 20%
Rona Ambrose 9%
Jason Kenney 7%

Conservative Party supportersEdit

Polling firm/Link Last date
of polling
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Alexander
Maxime
Bernier
Steven
Blaney
Michael
Chong
Kellie
Leitch
Pierre
Lemieux
Kevin
O'Leary
Erin
O'Toole
Lisa
Raitt
Andrew
Scheer
Brad
Trost
Other/
Undecided
Ipsos/Global News January 25, 2017 190 ± 3.5% 1% 7% 1% 1% 7% 1% 60% 3% 5% 3% 3% Andrew Saxton 5%
Deepak Obhrai 1%

Rick Peterson 1%
Forum Research January 21, 2017 434 ± 3.0% 1% 8% 3% 2% 3% 50% 7% 5% Someone else 21%
Forum Research December 7,
2016
415 ± 3.0% 8% 4% 9% 8% 6% 8% 5% 2% Someone else 49%
Mainstreet Research November 6,
2016
1,478 ± 2.55% 2% 11% 1% 12% 19% 11% 4% 14% 3% Undecided 18%
Deepak Obhrai 3%
Dan Lindsay 0%
Andrew Saxton 0%
Forum Research October 12,
2016
355 ± 3.0% 3% 17% 6% 6% 2% 6% 4% Someone else 41%
Tony Clement 14%
Mainstreet Research September 8,
2016
1,564 ± 2.48% 6% 7% 15% 9% 3% 9% Peter MacKay 19%
Undecided 12%
Tony Clement 12%
Someone else 7%
Deepak Obhrai 1%
Forum Research August 6,
2016
1,345 ± 4.9% 10% 5% 4% Tony Clement 18%
Deepak Obhrai 3%
Probit Inc. June 9,
2016
2,212 ± 2.08% 11% 3% 1% 21% 5% Peter MacKay 27%
Jason Kenney 17%
Rona Ambrose (write-in) 4%
Tony Clement 3%
Doug Ford 3%
Michelle Rempel 3%
Other 3%
Forum Research May 11,
2016
420 ± 3.0% 6% 3% 27% 2% Peter MacKay 23%
Someone else 17%
Rona Ambrose 16%
Jason Kenney 6%
Mainstreet Research April 27,
2016
1,676 ± 2.4% 6% 3% 2% 20% 1% Rona Ambrose 26%
Peter MacKay 16%
Undecided 10%
Tony Clement 7%
Jason Kenney 6%
Someone else 3%
8% 5% 4% 22% 3% Peter MacKay 23%
Undecided 16%
Tony Clement 8%
Jason Kenney 7%
Someone else 4%
EKOS April 15,
2016
1,176 ± 2.9% 4% 2% 17% 5% Stephen Harper 28%
Peter MacKay 23%

Someone else 17%
Don't know 5%
Forum Research April 5,
2016
1,455 ± 3.0% 5% 1% 24% 4% Peter MacKay 22%
Someone else 19%
Rona Ambrose 17%
Jason Kenney 8%
Abacus Data March 18
2016
1,500 ± 2.6% 5% 5% 1% 27% 8% Peter MacKay 36%
Jason Kenney 12%
Tony Clement 6%
Mainstreet Research January 15,
2016
4,937 ± 1.4% 4% 3% 23% 4% Undecided 29%
Peter MacKay 22%
Jason Kenney 8%
Someone else 3%
Abacus Data January 12,
2016
1,500 ± 2.6% 5% 4% 13% Peter MacKay 42%
Jason Kenney 19%
Tony Clement 13%
Bernard Lord 5%
Abacus Data November 25,
2015
360 ± 2.6% 6% 3% 3% 8% Peter MacKay 35%
Brad Wall 17%
Jason Kenney 12%
Jean Charest 11%
Doug Ford 4%
Forum Research November 7,
2015
334 ± 3.0% 4% Peter MacKay 32%
John Baird 18%
Jason Kenney 16%
Rona Ambrose 12%
Michelle Rempel 7%
Tony Clement 7%
Rob Nicholson 4%

All CanadiansEdit

Polling firm/Link Last date
of polling
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Alexander
Maxime
Bernier
Steven
Blaney
Michael
Chong
Kellie
Leitch
Pierre
Lemieux
Kevin
O'Leary
Erin
O'Toole
Lisa
Raitt
Andrew
Scheer
Brad
Trost
Other/
Undecided
Nanos research February 9, 2017 1,000 ± 3.1% <1% 8.5% 2% 9.2% 2% 15% 2% 7.1% 2% <1% Someone else 34%
Ipsos January 25, 2017 1,000 ± 3.5% 2% 8% 3% 2% 2% 1% 24% 2% 5% 1% 1% Andrew Saxton 3%
Deepak Obhrai 2%

Rick Peterson 1%
Forum Research January 21, 2017 1,332 ± 3.0% 3% 11% 3% 6% 2% 27% 7% 4% Someone else 38%
Forum Research December 7,
2016
1,304 ± 3.0% 6% 5% 5% 10% 7% 8% 3% 2% Someone else 53%
Forum Research October 12,
2016
1,143 ± 3.0% 3% 14% 7% 4% 3% 5% 2% Someone else 54%
Tony Clement 9%
Ipsos September 8,
2016
1,000 ± 3.5% 15% 5% 2% 25% 2% 7% Peter MacKay 26%
Candice Bergen 10%
Tony Clement 8%
Forum Research May 11,
2016
1,517 ± 3.0% 9% 3% 14% 4% Someone else 35%
Peter MacKay 18%
Rona Ambrose 11%
Jason Kenney 6%
EKOS April 15,
2016
1,176 ± 2.9% 6% 3% 9% 4% Someone else 36%
Peter MacKay 20%
Don't know 13%
Stephen Harper 11%
Forum Research April 5,
2016
1,455 ± 3.0% 9% 2% 14% 6% Someone else 35%
Peter MacKay 18%
Rona Ambrose 10%
Jason Kenney 6%
Abacus Data March 18,
2016
1,500 ± 2.6% 10% 6% 3% 18% 12% Peter MacKay 33%
Tony Clement 9%
Jason Kenney 8%
Abacus Data November 25,
2015
360 ± 2.6% 8% 7% 4% 10% Peter MacKay 31%
Jean Charest 15%
Jason Kenney 10%
Brad Wall 9%
Doug Ford 8%
Forum Research November 7,
2015
334 ± 3.0% 9% Peter MacKay 29%
Rona Ambrose 14%
John Baird 14%
Jason Kenney 11%
Michelle Rempel 11%
Tony Clement 7%
Rob Nicholson 6%

References and notesEdit

ReferencesEdit

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