Blue Chip Economic Indicators
Blue Chip Economic Indicators is a monthly survey and associated publication by the Blue Chip Publications division of Aspen Publishers collecting macroeconomic forecasts related to the economy of the United States. The survey polls America's top business economists, collecting their forecasts of U.S. economic growth, inflation, interest rates, and a host of other critical indicators of future business activity. It has a sister publication called Blue Chip Financial Forecasts, which surveys forecasts of the future direction and level of U.S. interest rates.
Blue Chip Economic Indicators started in 1976.
The Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey provides forecasts for this year and next from each panel member, plus and average, or consensus, of their forecasts for each of these variables associated with the economy of the United States:
- Real GDP
- GDP price index
- Nominal GDP
- Consumer price index
- Industrial production
- Real disposable personal income
- Real personal consumption expenditures
- Real non-residential fixed investment
- Pre-tax corporate profits
- 3-month Treasury bill rate
- 10-year Treasury note yield
- Unemployment rate
- Total housing starts
- Auto and light truck sales
- Real Net exports
Many papers in the academic literature on the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts have used the Blue Chip Economic Indicators for a data set of forecasts whose accuracy is to be evaluated. A paper by Laster, Bennett, and Geoum (1999) made a theoretical argument for how rational forecasters with identical information and incentives may still come up with divergent forecasts to maximize their probability of winning, and used the Blue chip Economic Indicators data to provide evidence supportive of their model. The paper noted: "The publisher of Blue Chip Economic Indicators, a monthly newsletter compiling dozens of professional economic forecasts, holds an annual dinner at which the most accurate forecaster for the previous year is honored. The winning forecaster is also identified in later issues of the newsletter."
Reception in the financial press and blogsEdit
- Moore, Randell E. "Blue Chip Economic Indicators". Retrieved April 13, 2014.
- "Blue Chip Financial Forecasts". Blue Chip Publications, Aspen Publishers. Retrieved April 13, 2014.
- Swidler, Steve; Ketcher, David (February 1990). "Economic Forecasts, Rationality, and the Processing of New Information over Time". Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking. 22 (1): 65–76. doi:10.2307/1992128. JSTOR 1992128.
- Batchelor, Roy; Dua, Pami (November 1991). "Blue Chip Rationality Tests". Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking. 23 (4): 692–705. doi:10.2307/1992704. JSTOR 1992704.
- Laster, David; Bennett, Paul; Geoum, In Sun (1999). "Rational Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts". The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 114 (1): 293–318. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.201.35. doi:10.1162/003355399555918.
- Elmendorf, Douglas William (March 27, 2013). "How Different Future Interest Rates Would Affect Budget Deficits". Congressional Budget Office. Retrieved April 13, 2014.
- Conerly, Bill (September 2, 2013). "Economic Assumptions For Your 2014 Business Plan". Forbes. Retrieved April 21, 2014.
- Epstein, Gene (June 23, 2012). "The Chips Are a Mixed Bag: Blue Chip Economic Indicators puts its consensus odds of a recession over the next year at nearly one in four -- but it may be overemphasizing a soft patch". Barron's. Retrieved April 13, 2014.
- Barbera, Robert; Wright, Jonathan (March 2, 2014). "A Consistent Set of Interest Rate and Real Growth Assumptions Suggests Stable Debt to GDP Ratios in the Out years". Center for Financial Economics, Johns Hopkins University. Archived from the original on April 15, 2014. Retrieved April 13, 2014.
- Romer, Christina (March 15, 2009). "Last week the Blue Chip Economic Indicators came out that surveys lots of private forecasters. Almost all of them are predicting a turnaround in the third quarter and positive growth in the fourth quarter". PolitiFact. Retrieved April 13, 2014.