Wikipedia

2024 United States Senate election in Arizona

For related races, see 2024 United States Senate elections.

The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona will be held on November 5, 2024. Primary elections will take place on July 30, 2024.[1]

2024 United States Senate election in Arizona
← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →
 
Nominee Ruben Gallego
(presumptive) 		TBD
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Kyrsten Sinema
Independent



Incumbent first-term independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema was first elected as a Democrat in 2018 with roughly 50% of the vote, succeeding retiring Republican Senator Jeff Flake. Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and filed paperwork to run for reelection as an independent in April 2023.[2] However, in March 2024, Sinema announced that she would not run for a second term.[3] U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego is seeking the Democratic nomination, while Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake are running for the Republican nomination.

Background edit

The race is considered to be a tossup given the state's nearly even partisan lean; however, most polls show Gallego to be the favorite to win.[4][5]Arizona was once considered a Republican stronghold, but has become a swing state.[6][7] Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in 2016,[8] while Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden prevailed by 0.3% in 2020.[9]

Independents edit

Candidates edit

Declined edit

Endorsements edit

Kyrsten Sinema (declined to run)
U.S. senators
Individuals
Organizations

Fundraising edit

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Kyrsten Sinema $16,929,393 $6,505,247 $10,595,668
Source: Federal Election Commission[13]

Democratic primary edit

See also: Replace Sinema Project

Prior to her departure from the Democratic Party, Sinema was considered highly vulnerable to a primary challenge due to her opposition to several parts of the Democratic Party's legislative agenda. Prospective polling showed Sinema trailing all of her potential challengers by wide margins, with U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego being viewed by numerous political analysts as the frontrunner to challenge her.[14] On January 22, 2022, the Arizona Democratic Party voted overwhelmingly to censure Sinema for a second time for voting against a carve-out to the Senate filibuster rule in a Democratic-led effort to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act.[15] Sinema did not support the Inflation Reduction Act until after Democratic leaders agreed to remove a provision closing the so-called carried interest tax loophole, the closure of which would have raised taxes on hedge fund owners and investment managers.[16] This action renewed calls from Democrats for Sinema to face a primary opponent in her next election.[17]

Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and registered as an independent.[2]

Candidates edit

Presumptive nominee edit

Declined edit

Endorsements edit

Ruben Gallego
Federal officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
Political parties
Labor unions
Organizations
Tribes

Fundraising edit

Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Ruben Gallego $20,818,369 $12,446,226 $9,648,718
Source: Federal Election Commission[13]

Polling edit

Hypothetical polling
Ruben Gallego vs. Alexander Keller
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ruben
Gallego 		Alexander
Keller 		Other Undecided
Emerson College August 2–4, 2023 571 (LV) – 48% 6% 6%[b] 40%
Ruben Gallego vs. Kate Gallego vs. Kathy Hoffman vs. Regina Romero vs. Kyrsten Sinema vs. Greg Stanton
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kate
Gallego 		Ruben
Gallego 		Kathy
Hoffman 		Regina
Romero 		Kyrsten
Sinema 		Greg
Stanton 		Undecided
Data for Progress (D) January 21–24, 2022 673 (LV) ± 4.0% – 74% – – 16% – 10%
– 66% – – 17% – 17%
OH Predictive Insights November 1–8, 2021 229 (RV) ± 6.5% – 47% – – 24% – 29%
– – 44% – 24% – 32%
– – – – 25% 47% 28%
Data for Progress (D)[A] October 8–10, 2021 467 (LV) ± 5.0% 9% 23% – 9% 19% 13% 26%
60% – – – 25% – 15%
– 62% – – 23% – 15%
– – – 55% 26% – 19%
– – – – 24% 59% 17%

Results edit

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ruben Gallego
Total votes

Republican primary edit

Candidates edit

Declared edit

Declined edit

Endorsements edit

Kari Lake
U.S. presidents
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State senators
Organizations
Individuals
Mark Lamb
Organizations

Fundraising edit

Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Kari Lake $5,704,973 $3,185,568 $2,519,405
Mark Lamb $1,589,090 $1,335,475 $253,615
Source: Federal Election Commission[13]

Polling edit

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kari
Lake 		Mark
Lamb 		George
Nicholson 		Brian
Wright 		Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (R)[B] February 21–26, 2024 469 (LV) ± 3.0% 55% 26% – – 7% 12%
Noble Predictive Insights February 6–13, 2024 384 (RV) ± 5.0% 54% 21% 2% 6% 1% 17%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Abe
Hamadeh 		Kari
Lake 		Mark
Lamb 		Jim
Lamon 		Blake
Masters 		Karrin Taylor
Robson 		Brian
Wright 		Other Undecided
Noble Predictive Insights October 25–31, 2023 1,010 (RV) ± 3.1% – 40% 14% – 10% – 4% – 33%
Emerson College August 2–4, 2023 667 (LV) ± 3.7% – 42% 11% 2% 7% – 2% – 28%
J.L. Partners April 10–12, 2023 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 4% 38% 8% 3% 7% 10% – 2% 29%

Results edit

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kari Lake
Republican Mark Lamb
Republican Elizabeth Jean Reye
Total votes

Green primary edit

Candidates edit

Declared edit

  • Arturo Hernandez[64]
  • Michael Norton, attorney[64]

Results edit

Green primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Arturo Hernandez
Green Michael Norton
Total votes

General election edit

Predictions edit

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[5] Tossup November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[4] Tossup November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[99] Lean D (flip) April 17, 2024
Elections Daily[100] Tossup May 4, 2023
CNalysis[101] Tossup November 21, 2023

Polling edit

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ruben
Gallego (D) 		Kari
Lake (R) 		Undecided
RABA Research April 9, 2024 503 (RV) ± 4.4% 36% 28% 36%[c]
Emerson College March 12–15, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 40% 16%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[B] February 21–26, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 42% 45% 13%
Emerson College[C] February 16–19, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 39% 15%
Noble Predictive Insights February 6–13, 2024 1,002 (RV) ± 3.1% 47% 37% 16%
J.L. Partners (R)[D] January 29 – February 1, 2024 500 (RV) – 44% 46% 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[E] January 5–6, 2024 590 (V) ± 4.0% 45% 46% 9%
Cygnal (R) October 24–25, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 43% 11%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[F] October 24, 2023 – ± 4.4% 49% 44% 7%
National Research Inc. (R) October 8–9, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 44% 12%
Public Policy Polling (D)[G] October 6–7, 2023 522 (V) ± 4.3% 48% 43% 9%
Noble Predictive Insights July 13–17, 2023 1000 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 35% 20%
OH Predictive Insights January 31 – February 9, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 43% 33% 24%
Normington Petts (D)[H] January 18–23, 2023 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 45% 5%
Public Policy Polling (D)[G] December 21, 2022 650 (V) ± 3.8% 48% 47% 5%
Hypothetical polling
Ruben Gallego (D) vs. Kari Lake (R) vs. Kyrsten Sinema (I)
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ruben
Gallego (D) 		Kari
Lake (R) 		Kyrsten
Sinema (I) 		Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (R)[B] February 21–26, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 33% 37% 21% 2%[d] 7%
Emerson College[C] February 16–19, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 36% 30% 21% – 13%
Noble Predictive Insights February 6–13, 2024 1,002 (RV) ± 3.1% 34% 31% 23% – 12%
J.L. Partners (R)[D] January 29 – February 1, 2024 500 (RV) – 39% 40% 13% – 8%
Public Policy Polling (D)[E] January 5–6, 2024 590 (V) ± 4.0% 36% 35% 17% – 12%
VCreek/AMG (R)[I] December 1–8, 2023 694 (LV) ± 3.7% 35% 41% 16% 1%[e] 7%
Tulchin Research (D)[J] November 13–20, 2023 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 39% 34% 17% 6%[f] 4%
Noble Predictive Insights October 25–31, 2023 1,010 (RV) ± 3.1% 39% 33% 29% – –
Cygnal (R) October 24–25, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 36% 37% 15% – 11%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[F] October 24, 2023 – ± 4.4% 41% 37% 17% – 5%
National Research Inc. (R) October 8–9, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 33% 37% 19% – 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[G] October 6–7, 2023 522 (V) ± 4.3% 41% 36% 15% – 8%
Noble Predictive Insights July 13–17, 2023 1000 (RV) ± 3.1% 34% 25% 26% – 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[G] April 18–19, 2023 559 (V) – 42% 35% 14% – 9%
OH Predictive Insights January 31 – February 9, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 34% 26% 19% – 21%
Normington Petts (D)[H] January 18–23, 2023 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 36% 36% 24% – –
Blueprint Polling (D) January 5–8, 2023 618 (V) ± 3.9% 32% 36% 14% – 19%
Public Policy Polling (D)[G] December 21, 2022 678 (V) ± 3.8% 40% 41% 13% – 6%
Ruben Gallego (D) vs. Kari Lake (R) vs. "An Independent / third-party candidate" (I)
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ruben
Gallego (D) 		Kari
Lake (R) 		Generic
independent (I) 		Undecided
Bullfinch Group March 29 – April 3, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 41% 10% 8%
Ruben Gallego vs. Doug Ducey (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ruben
Gallego (D) 		Doug
Ducey (R) 		Kyrsten
Sinema (I) 		Undecided
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights January 31 – February 9, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 38% 34% – 28%
32% 27% 17% 23%
Normington Petts (D)[H] January 18–23, 2023 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 37% 31% 27% 5%
Ruben Gallego vs. Blake Masters (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ruben
Gallego (D) 		Blake
Masters (R) 		Kyrsten
Sinema (I) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[G] October 6–7, 2023 522 (V) ± 4.3% 41% 31% 17% 11%
Noble Predictive Insights July 13–17, 2023 1000 (RV) ± 3.1% 44% 36% – 20%
32% 24% 28% 16%
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights January 31 – February 9, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 43% 32% – 26%
33% 24% 22% 21%
Ruben Gallego vs. Karrin Taylor-Robson (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ruben
Gallego (D) 		Karrin
Taylor Robson (R) 		Kyrsten
Sinema (I) 		Undecided
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights January 31 – February 9, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 36% 32% – 32%
31% 24% 21% 25%
Ruben Gallego vs. Mark Lamb (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ruben
Gallego (D) 		Mark
Lamb (R) 		Kyrsten
Sinema (I) 		Undecided
Noble Predictive Insights October 25–31, 2023 1,010 (RV) ± 3.1% 36% 32% 32% 0%
Public Policy Polling (D)[G] October 6–7, 2023 522 (V) ± 4.3% 40% 31% 16% 13%
Emerson College August 2–4, 2023 1,337 (RV) ± 2.6% 42% 42% – 16%
36% 29% 21% 15%
Noble Predictive Insights July 13–17, 2023 1000 (RV) ± 3.1% 40% 36% – 24%
33% 25% 24% 18%
Public Policy Polling (D)[G] April 18–19, 2023 559 (V) – 43% 33% 15% 9%
Ruben Gallego vs. Jim Lamon (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ruben
Gallego (D) 		Jim
Lamon (R) 		Kyrsten
Sinema (I) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[G] April 18–19, 2023 559 (V) – 43% 27% 16% 14%
Ruben Gallego vs. Brian Wright (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ruben
Gallego (D) 		Brian
Wright (R) 		Kyrsten
Sinema (I) 		Undecided
Emerson College August 2–4, 2023 1,337 (RV) ± 2.6% 41% 38% – 21%
37% 25% 26% 12%

Notes edit

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "Someone else" with 6%"
  3. ^ "Someone else" with 13%
  4. ^ Wouldn't vote with 2%
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  6. ^ "Someone else" with 6%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ This poll was sponsored by Primary Sinema
  2. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Bull Moose Project.
  3. ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Hill.
  4. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Kari Lake's campaign.
  5. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Replace Sinema PAC.
  6. ^ a b Poll sponsored by NRSC.
  7. ^ a b c d e f g h i This poll was sponsored by Gallego's campaign
  8. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Progress Arizona, LUCHA, and Replace Sinema PAC
  9. ^ Poll sponsored by Americas PAC, which supports Republican candidates.
  10. ^ Poll conducted for Stand for Children, a non-profit education advocacy group.

References edit

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  13. ^ a b c "2024 Election United States Senate - Arizona". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
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  65. ^ Hansen, Ronald (March 26, 2023). "Which Republicans will run for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's seat? What we know". The Arizona Republic. Archived from the original on March 26, 2023. Ciscomani told The Republic recently that he was still learning his way around the U.S. Capitol as a freshman in the House and denied an interest in running for the Senate next year.
  66. ^ Al Weaver (December 18, 2022). "Why the GOP has Ducey at the top of its Senate candidate wish list". The Hill. Ducey last week told reporters in his home state that he is 'not running for the United States Senate.'
  67. ^ Manu Raju; Alayna Treene (April 10, 2023). "Senate Republicans confront 2024 primary challenges and Trump's influence". CNN Politics. Abe Hamadeh, formerly the Republican nominee for Arizona attorney general, is also weighing a run.
  68. ^ "Arizona Rep. Debbie Lesko says she won't seek reelection, Abe Hamadeh to run for her seat". KTVK. October 17, 2023. Retrieved October 17, 2023.
  69. ^ Collins, Eliza (August 30, 2023). "Blake Masters Plans to Enter Race for Kyrsten Sinema's Senate Seat". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved August 30, 2023.
  70. ^ Gersony, Laura (October 26, 2023). "Arizona Republican Blake Masters announces run for Debbie Lesko's 8th District seat". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved October 26, 2023.
  71. ^ "Republican Karrin Taylor Robson says she won't run for Sinema's Senate seat in Arizona". The Hill. May 25, 2023.
  72. ^ Otterbein, Holly; Everett, Burgess; Mutnick, Ally (February 1, 2023). "Arizona Republicans fear they may blow it again". Politico. Retrieved February 1, 2023. One candidate who has ruled out a run is Kelli Ward, former chair of the Arizona Republican Party. She told POLITICO she was not looking at another Senate bid
  73. ^ Swan, Jonathan; Haberman, Maggie; Ulloa, Jazmine (October 10, 2023). "Trump Endorses Kari Lake's Senate Run in Arizona". The New York Times. Retrieved October 11, 2023.
  74. ^ Mutnick, Ally (October 16, 2023). "Kari Lake locks down a key GOP establishment endorsement". POLITICO. Archived from the original on October 16, 2023. Retrieved October 16, 2023.
  75. ^ a b c d e Thomas, Steff (March 1, 2024). "Lake nabs endorsements from Ernst, Risch, Cornyn in Arizona Senate race". The Hill. Retrieved March 2, 2024.
  76. ^ Mondeaux, Cami (March 19, 2024). "More than half of GOP senators back Kari Lake as she nabs another endorsement". Washington Examiner. Retrieved March 19, 2024.
  77. ^ Gillespie, Brandon (December 11, 2023). "Key McConnell ally makes endorsement in crucial swing state race that could flip Senate red". Fox News. Retrieved December 11, 2023.
  78. ^ Daines, Steve (February 13, 2024). "NRSC Chair Daines Endorses Kari Lake". NRSC. Retrieved February 13, 2024.
  79. ^ Tonco, Brigham (March 7, 2024). "Sen. Mike Lee endorses Kari Lake for U.S. Senate in Arizona". Deseret News. Retrieved March 7, 2024.
  80. ^ a b Vakil, Caroline (February 12, 2024). "Rand Paul, Gaetz endorse Kari Lake in Arizona Senate race". Retrieved February 16, 2024.
  81. ^ Downs, Rebecca (March 1, 2024). "Townhall Has Learned That Senator Risch Has Endorsed Kari Lake for Senate in Arizona". townhall.com. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
  82. ^ Mondeaux, Cami (March 12, 2024). "Kari Lake pulls in more support with Eric Schmitt as latest endorsement - Washington Examiner". Retrieved March 12, 2024.
  83. ^ Joseph, Jamie (January 22, 2024). "Sens. Tuberville and Marshall endorse Trump-backed Arizona Republican Kari Lake for Senate". Fox News.
  84. ^ Vakil, Caroline (February 27, 2024). "Vance endorses Lake in Arizona Senate race". The Hill. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
  85. ^ Gillespie, Brandon (November 2, 2023). "Kari Lake builds momentum with more big-name backing in race to flip Arizona Senate seat". Fox News. Archived from the original on November 2, 2023. Retrieved November 2, 2023.
  86. ^ Mondeaux, Cami (January 19, 2024). "Kari Lake nabs another endorsement from House conservative in pivotal Senate race". Washington Examiner. Retrieved January 24, 2024.
  87. ^ Bates, Suzanne (October 24, 2023). "Rep. Burgess Owens endorses Arizona's Kari Lake for Senate". Deseret News. Retrieved October 24, 2023.
  88. ^ Hansen, Ronald (November 15, 2023). "Kari Lake picks up support of No. 3 House Republican in sign the GOP is getting behind her". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved November 16, 2023. Stefanik, R-N.Y., who is the House Republican conference chair, said the Lake endorsement by her political action committee is the first for the Senate this election cycle.
  89. ^ Husebø, Wendell (February 29, 2024). "Wesley Hunt Endorses Kari Lake for U.S. Senate". Breitbart. Retrieved March 7, 2024. "Kari Lake is an outsider and fighter who will work to secure the border and put Arizonans First," he added. "I am excited to endorse Kari for the Senate in Arizona to bring much needed change to Washington."
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  93. ^ "Republicans for National Renewal Endorses Kari Lake for U.S. Senate". Republicans for National Renewal. October 26, 2023. Archived from the original on October 26, 2023. Retrieved October 26, 2023.
  94. ^ Mutnick, Ally (February 13, 2024). "Senate GOP campaign arm endorses Kari Lake". POLITICO.
  95. ^ "Senate Conservatives Fund". www.senateconservatives.com. Retrieved April 2, 2024.
  96. ^ "Endorsements". Turning Point Action. Retrieved December 14, 2023.
  97. ^ Stone, Kevin. "Blake Masters says he shifted 2024 focus from Senate to House after talking to Trump, Lake". KTAR. President Trump wanted Kari to run, and I think she's running a hell of a campaign so far, so I look forward to supporting her.
  98. ^ Gutierrez, Marco. "Primary Campaign Corner 2024: Candidates". Latinos for America First. Archived from the original on September 15, 2023. Retrieved September 15, 2023.
  99. ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. April 17, 2023. Retrieved April 17, 2023.
  100. ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  101. ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.

External links edit

Official campaign websites
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