2024 Russian presidential election

The 2024 Russian presidential election will take place in March 2024. In accordance with electoral law, the first round will be held on Sunday 17 March 2024.[2] If in the first round no candidate attains an absolute majority of the votes (more than half), then according to the law a second round will take place exactly three weeks later on 7 April 2024.[3]

2024 Russian presidential election

← 2018 17 March 2024 (1st round) 2030 →
Opinion polls
Registered110,564,632 (January 2020)[1]

Incumbent President

Vladimir Putin
Independent



The term limit established by Article 81 of the Russian Constitution prevents incumbent president Vladimir Putin from being elected to a new term. The 2024 election will determine the fifth President of Russia. The winner of the election is scheduled to be inaugurated on 7 May 2024.[4]

BackgroundEdit

Ineligibility of Vladimir PutinEdit

 
Vladimir Putin, the incumbent president, whose second term expires on May 7, 2024

According to point 3 of article 81 of the Constitution of Russia, the same person cannot hold a position of the President of the Russian Federation more than two terms in a row.[5] This means that Vladimir Putin, who was elected president in 2012 and re-elected in 2018, will not be able to participate in the 2024 presidential election, although some experts suggest that Putin may remain in power after 2024.[6] Putin denied the possibility of his participation in the 2030 election when answering this question of a journalist on 18 March 2018.[7] On 25 May 2018, answering a journalist's question during the SPIEF, Putin said that he was not going to hold the post of president for more than two consecutive terms.[8]

"2024 problem"Edit

The "2024 problem"[9] is connected with end of Putin’s presidential powers in 2024.[10]

According to Gallup International opinion poll conducted in December 2017, if Putin was not to be on the ballot, 46% would not have known for whom to vote and 19% would have made the ballot paper invalid.[11] Valery Fedorov[12] said that the Russian population does not think about this problem,[13] while the focus group participants gathered by the Levada Center identified two main scenarios for its solution: preservation of presidential powers by Vladimir Putin and the appointment of a successor.[14]

According to Ekaterina Schulmann, a wide elite pact is being sought, the alternative to which is the war of all against all.[15] According to Oleg Chernozub, the Russian elite is able to find ways to solve this problem,[10] for example, Valery Zorkin proposed changing the constitution,[16] Vyacheslav Volodin proposed expanding the powers of the parliament.[17]

In general, there are several scenarios for the development of events in the political field of Russia in 2024:[18]

  • Competitive free elections
    One of the least likely scenarios is that the next president after Putin will be determined as a result of an open political process.[18]
  • Assignment of a successor[19]
    One of the most likely scenarios is when Vladimir Putin will appoint his successor, who will be the main candidate for the 2024 election.[10] Putin himself was successor of Boris Yeltsin, and then Dmitry Medvedev was Putin's successor for one term.[18] Participants of focus groups, among Putin's possible successors, often name Dmitry Medvedev and Sergey Shoygu, less often Sergey Lavrov, Sergey Sobyanin, or even Pavel Grudinin; many say that he will be an unknown, "fresh" person.[14] Political analyst Azhdar Kurtov believes that to ensure the victory of a successor in the elections, there may be recognition of the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic independence.[20]
    In connection with the alleged transit of power, questions arise - will a successor be able to protect Putin in the same way that Putin protected Yeltsin? Will it be possible to change the president without serious destabilization and internal struggle? And most importantly - can the system built by Putin function without Putin?[21]
  • Amendment of the Constitution[19]
    Another possible way for Putin to retain power after 2024 called a possible amendment to the Constitution, removing the limitation of the terms of presidency in order for Putin to run for president in 2024. However, Putin said he was not going to change the Constitution in an interview with Megyn Kelly in March 2018.[22]
    A scenario in which restrictions that prevent Putin from remaining as president of the Russian Federation will be lifted.[18] Sergei Markov says that Putin’s repeated statements that there will be no abolition of terms of office have led discussion of possible scenarios for 2024 to a standstill.[23] Even a closer union with Belarus is being discussed.[24]
  • Putin retains power, but not as president
    Putin may take another position in 2024 (as it was from 2008 to 2012) and again run for president in 2030. On 23 March 2018, Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said that Putin is not going to change the Constitution and if there will be any constitutional reform, it will not concern presidential powers.[25][26]
    As an option, Putin can choose the posts of the Prime Minister[27] with extended powers[23][28] or the Chairman of the State Duma.[18] This option involves expanding the powers of parliament.[23] Political scientists are also discussing the possibility of transferring powers to the Security Council or the State Council of the Russian Federation.[24] In January 2020, Putin announced plans to amend the Constitution and expand the powers of the Duma and State Council. This has led to further speculation that he may seek to lead a strengthened State Council after leaving the office of president.[29] It is also possible that Putin will retain political power without taking a formal position.[27]

According to political analyst Kirill Rogov, the constitutional design of Russian statehood remains unclear due to the unsuccessful experience of the “tandem” and the lack of institutions of distributed power.[30] In addition to the obvious conflict between Putin’s political regime and the official state system, the problem is also the impossibility for Putin to guarantee security for himself and his family if he leaves office completely. However, poor health may encourage him to leave.[31]

2020 constitutional reformEdit

On 15 January 2020, during his annual address to the Federal Assembly, Putin proposed a constitutional amendments. This reform, according to assumptions, will help him maintain influence on the government even after leaving the post of President.[32][33]

A number of amendments affect the presidential authority:[34]

  • Putin proposed to partially weaken the President, and the State Duma has the right to approve members of the government (with the exception of power Ministers, whose appointment will be under the jurisdiction of the Federation Council).
  • Remove the words "in a row" from the article about the maximum number of terms a President (that means that in the future presidents can serve two terms max for life, Putin can't run for President in all subsequent elections, and Dmitry Medvedev will be able to run just once, as previously already served one term as President).
  • Putin proposed to state the role of the State Council in the Constitution. However, the Constitution will only state that the State Council is formed by the President, as well as the goals of its formation. The main powers of this body are proposed to be documented in an ordinary Federal Law (in March of the same year, Putin said that he was not going to head the state Council after leaving the post of President. In his opinion, such a decision would lead to dual power, which would be disastrous for Russia).[35]
  • The amendments will also set stricter requirements for people running for president. Namely, they will have to have lived in Russia for the last 25 years (according to the old norm of 10 years), and the President can not become a person who has or ever had a foreign citizenship or residence permit in another country, while people who previously had citizenship of a country that or part of which became part of Russia will be able to run for president (this means that former Ukrainian citizens who lived in Crimea in 2014 and received Russian citizenship after the annexation of the peninsula will be able to run for president in the future, however, if under the old rule they could run already in these elections. Now they will not be able to do this until 2039).
  • Also, after the amendments, all former presidents will receive the status of senators for life, at the same time, they will have the right to refuse this status.[36]

In order to adopt these amendments, Putin proposed holding a popular vote, in accordance with the results of which the amendments will enter into force or be rejected.[37]

Individuals who have publicly expressed interestEdit

Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president.

IndependentEdit

Potential candidatesEdit

Individuals in this section are the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy.

United RussiaEdit

Liberal Democratic PartyEdit

For TruthEdit

IndependentEdit

Declined to be candidatesEdit

The individuals in this section have publicly denied interest in running.

United RussiaEdit

YablokoEdit

IndependentEdit

FootnotesEdit

  1. ^ a b Pavel Grudinin is not a member of the Communist party, but expressed his intention to run for this party.
  2. ^ a b Nikolai Platoshkin is not a member of the Communist party, but he ran for the State Duma in 2019 from this party and has encouraged further cooperation with the party.
  1. ^ a b Sergey Polonsky received Cambodian citizenship in 2013. Due to amendments to the Constitution, if adopted by 2020 referendum, he can't run for President, because one of the amendments bans foreign citizenship.

ReferencesEdit

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