Wikipedia

2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election

See also: 2024 United States gubernatorial elections

The 2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various other state and local elections. Incumbent Governor Roy Cooper is term-limited and can not seek re-election to a third consecutive term in office. This is the only Democratic-held governorship up for election in 2024 in a state Donald Trump won in 2020. Primary elections took place on March 5, 2024.[1]

2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Josh Stein Mark Robinson
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent Governor

Roy Cooper
Democratic



Background edit

A typical swing state, North Carolina is considered to be a purple to slightly red southern state at the federal level. Both U.S. senators from the state are members of the Republican Party. However, its U.S. House delegation is evenly split between Republicans and Democrats, and Democrats hold multiple statewide offices in North Carolina, including the attorney general, secretary of state, and the governorship. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump carried North Carolina by 1.34 percentage points.[2][3]

The incumbent, Roy Cooper, was first elected in 2016, defeating then-incumbent governor Pat McCrory by about 0.2 points. Cooper was re-elected in 2020 by 4.5 percentage points.[3][4]

The 2024 election is expected to be competitive due to a variety of factors: North Carolina is a purple to slightly red state, the election is taking place in a presidential election year, and the seat is open due to term-limits facing the incumbent. The first Democrat to enter the race was Josh Stein, the current Attorney General. He was followed by recently-retired N.C. Supreme Court Justice Michael R. Morgan. Two Republicans who are currently serving in positions that are elected statewide have declared their candidacy: Mark Robinson, the current lieutenant governor, and Dale Folwell, the current State Treasurer.[5]

Democratic primary edit

Candidates edit

2024 North Carolina Democratic gubernatorial primary
 
← 2020 March 5, 2024 (2024-03-05) 2028 →
     
Candidate Josh Stein Michael R. Morgan
Popular vote 476,448 97,908
Percentage 69.6% 14.3%
 
Candidate Chrelle Booker Marcus Williams
Popular vote 45,695 38,996
Percentage 6.7% 5.7%
 
County results
Stein:      30-40%      40-50%      50-60%      60-70%      70-80%      80-90%
Morgan:      40-50%      50-60%

Nominee edit

Eliminated in primary edit

Declined edit

Endorsements edit

Josh Stein
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling edit

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error 		Chrelle
Booker 		Gary
Foxx 		Michael
Morgan 		Josh
Stein 		Marcus
Williams 		Other Undecided
High Point University February 16–23, 2024 322 (LV) ± 6.0% 10% 10% 14% 57% 9% – –
Change Research (D)[A] February 15–19, 2024 1,622 (LV) ± 2.6% – – 8% 49% – 4%[b] 39%
ECU Center for Survey Research February 9–12, 2024 1,207 (RV) ± 3.3% 2% 2% 7% 57% 3% – 29%
Meredith College January 26–31, 2024 760 (RV) ± 3.5% 5% 3% 4% 31% 2% 4% 51%
Public Policy Polling (D) December 15–16, 2023 556 (LV) ± 4.2% 3% 1% 5% 56% 4% – 32%
December 15, 2023 Foxx joins the race
December 14, 2023 Williams joins the race
November 2, 2023 Booker joins the race
Meredith College November 1–5, 2023 755 (RV) ± 3.5% – – 11% 38% – 9% 42%
Meredith College September 16–19, 2023 308 (RV) ± 3.5% – – 11% 33% – 10% 46%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error 		Mandy
Cohen 		Jeff
Jackson 		Josh
Stein 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[A] October 7–8, 2022 606 (RV) ± 4.0% 18% 12% 22% 9% 39%

Results edit

Democratic primary results[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Josh Stein 476,448 69.64
Democratic Michael R. Morgan 97,908 14.31
Democratic Chrelle Booker 45,695 6.68
Democratic Marcus Williams 38,996 5.70
Democratic Gary Foxx 25,100 3.67
Total votes 684,147 100.00

Republican primary edit

Candidates edit

2024 North Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary
 
← 2020 March 5, 2024 (2024-03-05) 2028 →
     
Candidate Mark Robinson Dale Folwell Bill Graham
Popular vote 663,917 196,108 163,757
Percentage 64.8% 19.2% 16.0%
 
County results
Robinson:      40-50%      50-60%      60-70%      70-80%      80-90%

Nominee edit

Eliminated in primary edit

Withdrawn edit

Declined edit

Endorsements edit

Dale Folwell
Council of State officials
Newspapers
Bill Graham
U.S. senators
Mark Robinson
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State senators
State representatives
Organizations
Newspapers

Debate edit

2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election Republican primary debate
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Republican Republican
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Dale Folwell Mark Walker Jesse Thomas
1 Sep. 12, 2023 Wake County
Republican Party 		Bill LuMaye YouTube P P P

Polling edit

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error 		Dale
Folwell 		Bill
Graham 		Mark
Robinson 		Jesse
Thomas 		Mark
Walker 		Andy
Wells 		Other Undecided
High Point University February 16–23, 2024 394 (LV) ± 6.0% 17% 33% 51% 9% – – – –
Capen Analytics February 21, 2024 12,580 (LV) ± 5.0% 29% 18% 53% – – – – –
Change Research (D)[A] February 15–19, 2024 1,622 (LV) ± 2.6% 9% 9% 57% – – – 3%[c] 22%
ECU Center for Survey Research February 9–12, 2024 1,207 (RV) ± 3.3% 7% 13% 53% – – – – 27%
Meredith College January 26–31, 2024 760 (RV) ± 3.5% 4% 9% 34% – – – 10% 42%
Public Policy Polling (D) January 5–6, 2024 619 (LV) ± 3.9% 7% 15% 55% – – – – 24%
December 16, 2023 Wells withdraws from the race
ECU Center for Survey Research November 29 – Dec 1, 2023 445 (LV) ± 5.4% 7% 8% 34% – – 3% – 49%
November 2, 2023 Thomas withdraws from the race
Meredith College November 1–5, 2023 755 (RV) ± 3.5% 3% 5% 41% 2% – 1% 6% 42%
October 25, 2023 Walker withdraws from the race
October 18, 2023 Graham joins the race
Cygnal[B] October 8–9, 2023 600 (LV) ± 3.9% 5% – 49% 1% 4% 1% – 41%
Meredith College September 16–19, 2023 350 (RV) ± 3.5% 3% – 34% 3% 7% 3% 6% 44%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error 		Dale
Folwell 		Pat
McCrory 		Mark
Robinson 		Thom
Tillis 		Steve
Troxler 		Mark
Walker 		Other Undecided
Opinion Diagnostics June 5–7, 2023 902 (LV) ± 3.3% 4% - 44% - - 7% 7% 38%
SurveyUSA[B] April 25–29, 2023 707 (LV) ± 4.4% 4% - 43% - 9% 8% - 37%
The Differentiators (R) December 12, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.0% 6% - 60% - - - - 34%
- 21% 60% - - - - 19%
- - 58% - - 8% - 34%
Public Policy Polling (D)[A] October 7–8, 2022 606 (RV) ± 4.0% 4% - 54% 20% - - 5% 17%

Results edit

Republican primary results[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mark Robinson 663,917 64.8%
Republican Dale Folwell 196,108 19.2%
Republican Bill Graham 163,757 16.0%
Total votes 1,023,782 100.00%

Other candidates edit

Libertarian Party edit

Nominee edit

Eliminated in primary edit

  • Shannon Bray, cybersecurity professional and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020 and 2022[45]

Results edit

 
Results by county:
Ross
  •   Ross—100%
  •   Ross—80–90%
  •   Ross—70–80%
  •   Ross—60–70%
  •   Ross—50–60%
Bray
  •   Bray—100%
  •   Bray—70–80%
  •   Bray—60–70%
  •   Bray—50–60%
Tie
  •   Tie—50–60%
Libertarian primary results[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Mike Ross 2,898 59.49
Libertarian Shannon Bray 1,973 40.51
Total votes 4,871 100

Green Party edit

Nominee edit

General election edit

Predictions edit

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[46] Lean D July 21, 2023
Inside Elections[47] Tossup September 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[48] Tossup July 13, 2023
Elections Daily[49] Tossup July 12, 2023

Endorsements edit

Endorsements in bold were made after the primary elections.

Josh Stein (D)
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Mark Robinson (R)
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State senators
State representatives
Organizations
Newspapers
Declined to endorse
Statewide officials

Polling edit

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error 		Josh
Stein (D) 		Mark
Robinson (R) 		Undecided
Cygnal (R)[B] April 7–8, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 38% 40% 18%
Quinnipiac University April 4–8, 2024 1,401 (RV) ± 2.6% 52% 44% 4%
HPU Survey Research Center March 22-30, 2024 829 (RV) ± 3.4% 37% 34% 29%
Marist College March 11–14, 2024 1,197 (RV) ± 3.6% 49% 47% 4%
SurveyUSA[C] March 3–9, 2024 598 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 42% 14%
Cygnal (R)[B] March 6–7, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 44% 17%
Change Research (D)[A] February 15–19, 2024 1,622 (LV) ± 2.6% 42% 43% 15%
ECU Center for Survey Research February 9–12, 2024 1,207 (RV) ± 3.3% 41% 41% 14%
Meredith College January 26–31, 2024 760 (RV) ± 3.5% 39% 35% 17%
ECU Center for Survey Research November 29 – December 1, 2023 915 (RV) ± 3.8% 40% 44% 16%
Meredith College November 1–5, 2023 755 (RV) ± 3.5% 38% 36% 19%
Change Research (D)[A] September 1–5, 2023 914 (LV) ± 3.6% 38% 42% 20%
Opinion Diagnostics June 5–7, 2023 902 (LV) ± 3.3% 38% 41% 21%
Cygnal (R)[B] May 12–23, 2023 610 (LV) ± 3.96% 41% 42% 18%
Change Research (D)[A] May 5–8, 2023 802 (LV) ± 3.9% 43% 46% 11%
Public Policy Polling (D) March 2–3, 2023 704 (RV) ± 3.7% 42% 44% 14%
Differentiators (R)[D] January 9–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 42% 42% 16%
Public Policy Polling (D)[A] October 7–8, 2022 606 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 42% 14%
Meeting Street Insights (R)[E] May 12–16, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 42% 48% 10%
Hypothetical polling
Josh Stein vs. Dale Folwell
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error 		Josh
Stein (D) 		Dale
Folwell (R) 		Undecided
ECU Center for Survey Research February 9–12, 2024 1,207 (RV) ± 3.3% 42% 31% 27%
ECU Center for Survey Research November 29 – December 1, 2023 915 (RV) ± 3.8% 40% 38% 22%
Cygnal (R)[B] May 12–23, 2023 610 (LV) ± 3.96% 39% 34% 27%
Josh Stein vs. Bill Graham
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error 		Josh
Stein (D) 		Bill
Graham (R) 		Undecided
ECU Center for Survey Research February 9–12, 2024 1,207 (RV) ± 3.3% 40% 35% 25%
ECU Center for Survey Research November 29 – December 1, 2023 915 (RV) ± 3.8% 42% 39% 19%
Josh Stein vs. Mark Walker
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error 		Josh
Stein (D) 		Mark
Walker (R) 		Undecided
Cygnal (R)[B] May 12–23, 2023 610 (LV) ± 3.96% 39% 37% 24%
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error 		Generic
Democrat (D) 		Generic
Republican (R) 		Other Undecided
High Point University February 16–23, 2024 753 (LV) ± 3.9% 46% 45% 2%[d] 7%

Results edit

2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Josh Stein
Republican Mark Robinson
Libertarian Mike Ross
Green Wayne Turner
Total votes

Notes edit

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "Would not vote" with 4%
  3. ^ "Would not vote" with 3%
  4. ^ "Another party's candidate" with 2%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h This poll was sponsored by Carolina Forward
  2. ^ a b c d e f g This poll was sponsored by the John Locke Foundation
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by WRAL-TV
  4. ^ This poll was sponsored by the NC Values Commission
  5. ^ This poll was sponsored by the Carolina Partnership for Reform

References edit

  1. ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  2. ^ "Republican Ted Budd wins North Carolina's U.S. Senate race". AP NEWS. November 8, 2022. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  3. ^ a b "State Composite Abstract Report - Contest.pdf" (PDF). North Carolina State Board of Elections. Retrieved November 24, 2020.
  4. ^ "North Carolina Official General Election Results". North Carolina State Board of Elections. November 8, 2016. Retrieved January 5, 2017.
  5. ^ a b c d Schneider, Elena (January 18, 2023). "North Carolina AG Josh Stein launches bid for governor". Politico. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  6. ^ Langston, Grant (December 7, 2023). "Tryon councilwoman eyes North Carolina governor seat". Tryon Daily Bulletin. Retrieved December 9, 2023.
  7. ^ a b Mikkelsen, Emily; Melrose, Justyn (December 15, 2023). "Election 2024 North Carolina: These are the candidates who filed for races impacting the Piedmont Triad". WGHP. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
  8. ^ Schoenbaum, Hannah (September 12, 2023). "Former North Carolina justice enters Democratic primary for governor in 2024". Associated Press.
  9. ^ Wooten, Alan (December 14, 2023). "Democrat Josh Stein, Libertarian Shannon Bray file for North Carolina governor race". Jacksonville Daily News. Retrieved January 19, 2024. Democrats headed to the March 5 gubernatorial primary include Chrelle Booker, Mike Morgan and Marcus Williams in addition to Stein.
  10. ^ a b c d e Doyle, Steve (November 15, 2022). "Who will run to replace North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper? Here are 6 possibilities". FOX8 WGHP. Retrieved November 29, 2022.
  11. ^ a b c d e "North Carolina AG Josh Stein running for governor in 2024".
  12. ^ a b c Doyle, Steve (January 18, 2023). "Democrat Josh Stein is running for North Carolina governor. But who else may be on the ballot? We have names". FOX8.
  13. ^ a b c d "Stein Kicks Off the 2024 Cycle".
  14. ^ "Josh Stein, NC's attorney general, announces his bid for governor".
  15. ^ Singer, Jeff (January 20, 2023). "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 1/20".
  16. ^ a b "Democratic NC Attorney General Josh Stein to run for governor". January 18, 2023.
  17. ^ Hubbard, Kathryn (August 30, 2023). "Gov. Roy Cooper endorses AG Josh Stein for NC governor". WNCN.
  18. ^ a b Chi-Sing, Haley (January 18, 2023). "NC Democrat AG Stein announces run for governor, immediately slams Lt Gov Robinson". Fox News. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
  19. ^ a b c d "NextGen PAC Endorses North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein for Governor Ahead of 2024 Elections". NextGen America PAC. May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
  20. ^ a b McMillan, MaryBe (June 8, 2023). "North Carolina AFL-CIO Endorses Josh Stein for Governor". NC State AFL-CIO. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
  21. ^ "NCAE Endorses Attorney General Josh Stein for Governor in 2024". North Carolina Association of Educators. April 1, 2023. Retrieved August 4, 2023.
  22. ^ "PA PAC Endorses Candidates for the 2024 Primary Election". peoplesalliancepac.org. Retrieved January 29, 2024.
  23. ^ a b c d "End Citizens United / Let America Vote Endorses Josh Stein for North Carolina Governor". End Citizens United. May 31, 2023. Retrieved May 31, 2023.
  24. ^ "NCLCV Conservation PAC endorses AG Josh Stein for Governor". March 1, 2023. Retrieved August 4, 2023.
  25. ^ "Reproductive Freedom for All Endorses Attorney General Josh Stein for Governor in North Carolina". Reproductive Freedom for All. November 2, 2023. Archived from the original on November 2, 2023. Retrieved November 2, 2023.
  26. ^ "Endorsements". Sierra Club. Retrieved February 6, 2024.
  27. ^ a b "NC governor endorsements: Our choices in the Democratic and GOP primaries". The Charlotte Observer. February 18, 2024.
  28. ^ a b c "03/05/2024 UNOFFICIAL PRIMARY ELECTION RESULTS - STATEWIDE". North Carolina State Board of Elections. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
  29. ^ a b c d e f g Mikkelsen, Emily; Stamps, Brayden (April 22, 2023). "Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson announces run for governor at cloudy Ace Speedway rally". Fox 8. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  30. ^ Robertson, Gary (March 25, 2023). "North Carolina treasurer running for governor in 2024". The Seattle Times. Retrieved March 25, 2023.
  31. ^ Solano, Christina (October 18, 2023). "North Carolina's race for governor grows with campaign announcement by Bill Graham". WXII-TV. Retrieved October 18, 2023.
  32. ^ "Ex-health care executive ends bid for North Carolina governor, running now for secretary of state". Associated Press. November 2, 2023.
  33. ^ Woodhouse, Dallas (October 25, 2023). "Mark Walker exits governor's race to seek new Triad-area congressional seat". Carolina Journal. Retrieved October 25, 2023.
  34. ^ Griffin, Kevin (December 16, 2023). "Former state senator from Hickory declines to file for governor after announcing campaign". Hickory Daily Record. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
  35. ^ "U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis talks openly on hot topics, career ambitions and his song playlist".
  36. ^ a b Fahlberg, Audrey (December 8, 2023). "Senator Thom Tillis Endorses Attorney Bill Graham in N.C. GOP Gov Primary, Dealing Blow to Frontrunner Mark Robinson". National Review.
  37. ^ "Former North Carolina Gov. Jim Martin endorses Dale Folwell in governor's race". FOX8 WGHP. January 25, 2024. Retrieved January 25, 2024.
  38. ^ "Trump Pledges to Endorse Mark Robinson for North Carolina Governor". U.S. News. June 10, 2023. Retrieved June 12, 2023.
  39. ^ Robertson, Gary D. (April 22, 2023). "Conservative Robinson joins race for N. Carolina governor". Associated Press. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  40. ^ a b c d Bajpai, Avi (April 22, 2023). "NC Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson officially launches his campaign for governor". News & Observer. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  41. ^ NRA-PVF. "NRA's Political Victory Fund Endorses Mark Robinson for Governor with an "A+" Rating". NRA-PVF. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
  42. ^ @CPAC (January 16, 2024). "CPAC endorses Lieutenant Governor, Mark Robinson for Governor of North Carolina" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  43. ^ a b Hammer, John (February 27, 2024). "Rhino Endorsements In Republican Primary". The Rhino Times of Greensboro. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
  44. ^ Doyle, Steve (March 24, 2023). "Libertarian from Gaston County enters North Carolina governor's race". Fox 8. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  45. ^ Doyle, Steve (May 25, 2023). "Shannon Bray becomes second Libertarian in race for North Carolina governor". WAVY News 10. Retrieved May 31, 2023.
  46. ^ "2024 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  47. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  48. ^ "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  49. ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. July 22, 2023. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  50. ^ "Josh Stein, NC's attorney general, announces his bid for governor".
  51. ^ a b "GIFFORDS PAC Endorses Josh Stein and Jeff Jackson in North Carolina". Giffords. March 19, 2024. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
  52. ^ Singer, Jeff (January 20, 2023). "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 1/20".
  53. ^ "Beshear's PAC issues first wave of endorsements". WKU Public Radio | The Public Radio Service of Western Kentucky University. March 26, 2024. Retrieved March 27, 2024.
  54. ^ Hubbard, Kathryn (August 30, 2023). "Gov. Roy Cooper endorses AG Josh Stein for NC governor". WNCN.
  55. ^ "NCAE Endorses Attorney General Josh Stein for Governor in 2024". North Carolina Association of Educators. April 1, 2023. Retrieved August 4, 2023.
  56. ^ "PA PAC Endorses Candidates for the 2024 Primary Election". peoplesalliancepac.org. Retrieved January 29, 2024.
  57. ^ "NCLCV Conservation PAC endorses AG Josh Stein for Governor". March 1, 2023. Retrieved August 4, 2023.
  58. ^ "Reproductive Freedom for All Endorses Attorney General Josh Stein for Governor in North Carolina". Reproductive Freedom for All. November 2, 2023. Archived from the original on November 2, 2023. Retrieved November 2, 2023.
  59. ^ "Endorsements". Sierra Club. Retrieved February 6, 2024.
  60. ^ "Trump Pledges to Endorse Mark Robinson for North Carolina Governor". U.S. News. June 10, 2023. Retrieved June 12, 2023.
  61. ^ Robertson, Gary D. (April 22, 2023). "Conservative Robinson joins race for N. Carolina governor". Associated Press. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  62. ^ NRA-PVF. "NRA's Political Victory Fund Endorses Mark Robinson for Governor with an "A+" Rating". NRA-PVF. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
  63. ^ @CPAC (January 16, 2024). "CPAC endorses Lieutenant Governor, Mark Robinson for Governor of North Carolina" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  64. ^ Killian, Joe; Henkel, Clayton (April 2, 2024). "State treasurer declines to endorse fellow Republican for governor". NC Newsline. Retrieved April 13, 2024.

North Carolina Primary Results (2024)

External links edit

Official campaign websites
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2024_North_Carolina_gubernatorial_election&oldid=1218839260"