2024 European Parliament election in Italy

The 2024 European Parliament election in Italy will be held on 8 and 9 June 2024, electing members of the 10th Italian delegation to the European Parliament as part of the European elections held across the European Union.[1] Local elections will be held concurrently.[2]

2024 European Parliament election in Italy

← 2019 8–9 June 2024 2029 →

All 76 Italian seats to the European Parliament
Opinion polls
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Matteo Salvini Elly Schlein Giuseppe Conte
Party League Democratic Party Five Star Movement
Alliance ID S&D NI
Leader since 15 December 2013 12 March 2023 6 August 2021
Last election 34.3%, 29 seats 22.7%, 19 seats 17.1%, 14 seats

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Antonio Tajani Giorgia Meloni Philipp Achammer
Party Forza Italia Brothers of Italy SVP
Alliance EPP ECR EPP
Leader since 15 July 2023 8 March 2014 3 May 2014
Last election 8.7%, 6 seats 6.4%, 5 seats 0.5%, 1 seat

Background edit

Fidanza's investigations edit

On 30 September 2021, Fanpage published an investigation revealing footage recorded with a hidden camera by an infiltrated journalist, in which the MEP Carlo Fidanza, together with the Milan district councillor Roberto Jonghi Lavarini, asked the journalist, who was pretending to be an entrepreneur, to finance Chiara Valcepina's election campaign in the 2021 Milan municipal election, saying they could pay under the table and launder that money. The discussion led to jokes about Jews, black people, references to Hitler's Munich beer hall speech, and Fidanza making the gesture of the Roman salute. Following the publication of the article, Fidanza suspended himself from Brothers of Italy. The investigation also involved the former Lega MEP Mauro Borghezio, the Lega regional councillor in Lombardy, Massimiliano Bastoni, and the Milan city councillor Silvia Sardone, who were filmed while proposing to make the 'third League' with Lealtà Azione, a neo-Nazi movement, masquerading it as a non-profit organisation to distribute parcels of pasta to voters with photos of the candidates on them. Giorgia Meloni, the leader of Brothers of Italy, demanded to see the full footage before being able to judge. The Milan Public Prosecutor's Office opened an investigation for eight people for illegal financing and money laundering, including MEPs Angelo Ciocca and Carlo Fidanza, which was closed in December 2022 due to lack of evidence.[3][4][5][6][7][8][9]

Fidanza was also involved in a corruption investigation by the Milan Public Prosecutor's Office for having made Brescia city councillor Giovanni Acri resign in order to get Giangiacomo Calovini elected, in exchange for the appointment of Acri's son as Fidanza's assistant in the European Parliament. Fidanza and Calovini plea bargained with the Milan Public Prosecutor to one year and four months, avoiding the disqualification from public office that would have been triggered by the Severino Law.[10][11][12]

Campaign edit

League edit

Matteo Salvini repeatedly called for the formation of an alternative majority in the European Parliament that included the groups of EPP, ECR and ID, like the center-right coalition that won the 2022 general elections in Italy. Salvini organized an Identity and Democracy convention in Florence on 7 December 2023, where he criticized the European Green Deal, accusing the socialists of ‘illegally occupying’ the European Commission. However, the leader of Forza Italia, Antonio Tajani, criticized Salvini’s idea, not considering an alliance with Marine Le Pen, Geert Wilders and Alternative for Germany possible.[13][14]

Brothers of Italy edit

In an interview with ZDF on 6 August 2023, the President of the EPP Manfred Weber praised Meloni's government, suggesting a possible alliance with Brothers of Italy for the next election. However, he drew a red line with three conditions to fulfill: the support for Ukraine in their conflict, the willingness to build Europe and not destroy it, and the acceptance of the rule of law, denying at the same time an alliance with AfD, RN or PiS. However Markus Söder, the leader of the CSU, turned down any alliance with Brothers of Italy.[15][16] Former German Minister of Justice Katarina Barley accused Weber of opening up to the far right in Europe.[17] During the press conference held on 5 January, Meloni said there are “insurmountable distances” with AfD, while she praised Le Pen.[18]

Action, Italia Viva and More Europe edit

After the break-up of the Third Pole (an electoral coalition formed in 2022 between Action and Italia Viva), there were concerns that there was a risk of presenting three lists belonging to the same Renew Europe group without any of the three lists being able to pass the threshold, thus not electing any MEPs.[19] Stéphane Séjourné, President of Renew Europe, publicly appealed in May 2023 to both parties to stand together at the next European elections, so as to elect “as many MEPs from the Renew Europe group as possible”.[20][21][22] However, disagreements between Calenda and Renzi hindered the birth of a common list: Renzi announced the break-up of the common groups at the Parliament and the birth of a list called "The Centre", while Calenda expressed his opposition to run again with Renzi. Calenda had also broken the federation with More Europe in August 2022, preferring to ally himself with Italia Viva to create the Third Pole, and he had also stood as a candidate in the same constituency as Emma Bonino, ending up favouring the centre-right candidate who then won the uninominal constituency.[23][24][25]

On 30 September 2023 Riccardo Magi, secretary of More Europe, announced that his party will run as United States of Europe.[26] On 13 December, the National Direction of More Europe approved talks with the other Italian liberal parties for a list supporting the United States of Europe.[27] On 15 December Emma Bonino published on La Stampa a manifesto, calling for the United States of Europe.[28] The manifesto was signed by individual people like Marco Bentivogli (leader of Base Italia), Giusi Nicolini, Sandro Gozi, Nathalie Tocci and Renato Soru and parties like IV.[29][30][31][32][33]

Emma Bonino published an article in Il Sole 24 Ore announcing a convention for the United States of Europe open to all parties for February 24 in Rome.[34] The goal is to launch a list that does not contain individual party symbols on its logo and that party leaders do not run for the European election.[35] Italia Viva leader Matteo Renzi, despite supporting the Manifesto, has announced that he will run in all constituencies.[36] Following the convention on February 24, there were differences of opinion between Italia Viva and Action. Secretary Magi requested a brief period of reflection to come to an agreement on a single list.[37][38] On March 7, More Europe issued a statement advocating for a unified list that includes all three liberal parties. Otherwise, each party would need to act independently.[39]

Other lists edit

On 14 February television host Michele Santoro presented a left-wing list named Peace, Land, Dignity.[40] Former Mayor of Rome Gianni Alemanno launched last November a right-wing party called Independence, saying he's thinking about running for the European election.[41]

Electoral system edit

The party-list proportional representation was the traditional electoral system of the Italian Republic from its establishment in 1946 to 1994, therefore it was also adopted to elect the Italian members of the European Parliament (MEPs) since 1979.

Two levels were introduced: a national level to divide the seats among parties and a constituency level to distribute them among candidates in open lists. Five constituencies were established, each including 2–5 regions and each electing a fixed number of MEPs. At national level, seats are divided between party lists using the largest remainder method with Hare quota. Seats are allocated to parties and then to their most voted candidates.

In the run-up to the 2009 European Parliament election, the Italian Parliament introduced a national threshold of 4%. An exception was granted for parties representing some linguistic minorities as such lists can be connected with one of the major parties, combining their votes, provided that those parties reach the 4% threshold and that candidates from minority parties obtain a sufficient number of votes, no less than 50,000 for the main candidate.

Every political party that intends to take part in the election must collect at least 30,000 to 35,000 signatures of eligible voters for each constituency, of which at least 3,000 signatures for each region; however, the following lists are exempted from the collection of signatures: all the lists that have at least one group in the Chamber of Deputies or the Senate of the Republic, all the lists that contested themselves in the last political election with their own symbol and that have elected at least one parliamentarian, all the lists that contain the symbol of a list already exempted from the collection of signatures, and the lists that refer in the symbol to a European party or a party of another nation within the European Union that has elected at least one MEP at the last European elections. The latter condition was established in 2019 by the Electoral Offices of the constituencies.[42][43]

Constituencies edit

 
Current constituencies of Italy
Constituency Regions Seats Population, 2022[44] (thousands) Area (km2)
Total Per seat Total Per seat
North-West Aosta Valley, Liguria, Lombardy, Piedmont 20 15,832 792 57,950 2,897
North-East Emilia-Romagna, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol, Veneto 15 11,541 769 62,310 4,154
Central Latium, Marche, Tuscany, Umbria 15 11,724 781 58,052 3,870
Southern Abruzzo, Apulia, Basilicata, Calabria, Campania, Molise 18 13,512 751 73,223 4,068
Islands Sardinia, Sicily 8 6,421 803 49,801 6,225
Total 76 59,030 777 302,068 3,975

Attempts to amend the electoral law edit

The Regional Council of Sardinia in 2023 unanimously approved a proposal to split the Islands constituency into 'Sicily' and 'Sardinia' due to the population disproportion between the two Italian regions. The proposal is currently under discussion in the Senate of the Republic.[45][46]

In July 2023, it was informally proposed to lower the electoral threshold from 4% to 3%, the same electoral threshold used for the political elections. This proposal was welcomed by Greens and Left Alliance and Us Moderates. Brothers of Italy didn’t shut it down since they wanted to help Forza Italia, whose future seemed uncertain after the death of its historic leader Silvio Berlusconi, while League and Italia Viva declared themselves against the proposal. The proposal was officially rejected in September when Forza Italia, fearing the competition of Italia Viva and Action in the center, refused to lower the electoral threshold.[47][48][49]

Party exemption from collecting signatures edit

According to the regulations for the 2019 European elections, parties may be exempted from collecting signatures under certain circumstances, including having their own group in the Chamber of Deputies or the Senate, having elected at least one MP with their symbol in the last general election, having a logo that contains the logo of another party already exempted from collecting signatures, and having lists that refer to a European party or a party of another nation within the European Union that has elected at least one MEP in the last European elections.[50] In 2014, the Electoral Offices of the constituencies granted exemption to the European Greens – Green Italia list, as the list was affiliated with a European political party represented in the European Parliament with its own parliamentary group.[51] In 2019, the Electoral Offices of the constituencies established a condition that permits certain parties to participate in European elections through any party in Europe that has elected at least one MEP in any European country.[52] In February 2024, Brothers of Italy proposed an amendment to the Elections Decree in the Senate. The amendment aimed to clarify the interpretation given by the Electoral Offices of the constituencies in 2019. It was suggested that parties that had elected at least one MEP in Italy at the last elections would be exempt. Additionally, it was proposed that only lists that had elected at least one MP in the proportional representation at the last general elections would be exempt. This exclusion would apply to parties that had elected an MP in a uninominal constituency with their party logo.[53] After criticism from some parties such as More Europe, South calls North, and Popular Alternative (the first two parties had elected an MP only in uninominal constituencies in the last general election), the amendment has been revised to provide an exemption for all parties that have elected an MP, whether in a proportional representation or a uninominal constituency.[54][55] On March 7, 2024, the Constitutional Affairs Committee in the Senate approved the amendment.[56]

Outgoing delegation edit

Outgoing MEPs edit

The table shows the detailed composition of the Italian seats at the European Parliament as of 1 February 2024.

EP Group Seats Party Seats MEPs
Identity and Democracy
23 / 76
League 23
Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats
15 / 76
Democratic Party 14
Independents 1
European People's Party
12 / 76
Forza Italia 10
South Tyrolean People's Party 1
Independents 1
European Conservatives and Reformists
10 / 76
Brothers of Italy 10
Non-attached members
9 / 76
Five Star Movement 5
Christian Democracy Sicily 1
Democratic Party 1
Greens and Left Alliance 1
Independents 1
Renew Europe
4 / 76
Action 2
Italia Viva 1
Independents 1
Greens–European Free Alliance
3 / 76
August 24th Movement 1
Independents 2
Total 76
Source: European Parliament
  1. ^ On 9 December 2023 he joined Forza Italia.
  2. ^ Suspended from the Democratic Party on 16 December 2022 following the Qatar corruption scandal at the European Parliament.[57]

Retiring incumbents edit

The following MEPs are not seeking re-election:

Constituency Departing MEP Party EP Group First elected Terms Date announced
North-West Italy Mercedes Bresso Democratic Party S&D 2004 3 22 May 2023[58]
Italian Islands Raffaele Stancanelli Brothers of Italy ECR 2019 1 25 November 2023[59]
North-East Italy Achille Variati Democratic Party S&D 2022 1 19 January 2024[60]
North-West Italy Marco Zanni Lega ID 2014 2 28 February 2024[61]
Southern Italy Laura Ferrara Five Star Movement NI 2014 2 15 March 2024[62]

Main parties and leaders edit

This is a list of the main parties which will participate in the election and were polled in most national opinion surveys.

Party Main ideology Leader(s) European
party
EP Group 2019 result Outgoing MEPs
Votes (%) Seats
Lega League
Lega
Right-wing populism Matteo Salvini ID Party ID 34.3%
29 / 76
23 / 76
PD Democratic Party
Partito Democratico
Social democracy Elly Schlein PES S&D 22.7%
19 / 76
15 / 76
M5S Five Star Movement
Movimento 5 Stelle
Populism Giuseppe Conte None NI 17.1%
14 / 76
5 / 76
FI Forza Italia
Forza Italia
Liberal conservatism Antonio Tajani EPP EPP 8.8%
7 / 76
10 / 76
FdI Brothers of Italy
Fratelli d'Italia
National conservatism Giorgia Meloni ECR Party ECR 6.4%
6 / 76
10 / 76
SVP South Tyrolean People's Party
Südtiroler Volkspartei
Regionalism Philipp Achammer EPP EPP 0.5%
1 / 76
1 / 76
AVS Greens and Left Alliance
Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra
Green politics
Democratic socialism
Angelo Bonelli
Nicola Fratoianni
EGP
PEL
Greens-EFA
GUE/NGL
2.3%
1.7%
0 / 76
1 / 76
SUE United States of Europe European federalism Emma Bonino, Matteo Renzi ALDE
EDP
PES
Volt
Renew
S&D
Greens-EFA
Did not contest
1 / 76
A Action Liberalism Carlo Calenda ALDE Renew Did not contest
2 / 76
Italexit Italexit
Italexit
Anti-establishment Vacant None None Did not contest
0 / 76
PTD Peace Land Dignity
Pace Terra Dignità
Left-wing populism Michele Santoro None None Did not contest
1 / 76
Libertà Freedom
Libertà
Populism Cateno De Luca None None Did not contest
0 / 76
NM Us Moderates
Noi Moderati
Liberal conservatism Maurizio Lupi None None Did not contest
0 / 76

Candidates edit

Top candidates edit

In the following table, the top candidates of each party/list in the five constituencies are listed.

Party North-West North-East Centre South Islands Source
League TBA TBA TBA TBA Annalisa Tardino [75]
Democratic Party TBA TBA TBA Lucia Annunziata TBA
Five Star Movement TBA TBA TBA Pasquale Tridico Giuseppe Antoci [76][77]
Peace Land Dignity Michele Santoro Raniero La Valle Michele Santoro [78]
South Tyrolean People's Party Herbert Dorfmann [79]

League edit

League leader Matteo Salvini announced on 8 January 2024 that he would not run for the next European Parliament. He also praised Roberto Vannacci, an Italian Army general who became notorious in the summer of 2023 for writing a political book containing homophobic, racist and sexist statements while on duty.[80][81] An internal disciplinary procedure was opened against him by the Italian Army to investigate possible disciplinary offences.[82] Vannacci said he would consider a candidature for the European elections.[83]

Democratic Party edit

Paolo Gentiloni, outgoing European Commissioner for Economy, turned down the chance to stand as a candidate for the European Parliament.[84]

Brothers of Italy edit

Giorgia Meloni, leader of Brothers of Italy and 68th Prime Minister of Italy, said during a press conference that she was considering running in the next elections.[85] According to Article 122 of the Italian Constitution, and according to Article 6 of the Access Initial Legal Act approved by the European Parliament, the office of Prime Minister is incompatible with that of MEP, therefore Meloni should immediately resign as MEP.[86][87][88] Silvio Berlusconi was the only italian incumbent Prime Minister to run as a candidate for the European elections in 1994, 2004 and in 2009, resigning as MEP after the elections due to incompatibility with the office of Prime Minister.[89][90]

More Europe edit

On 14 January Emma Bonino, founder of More Europe, declined to stand as a candidate for the election.[91] On 25 January Federico Pizzarotti, President of More Europe, announced his desire to run as a candidate.[92]

Action edit

On 22 January Calenda unveiled on the party website the first candidates for the election: MEP Giosi Ferrandino, Caterina Avanza, Alessio D'Amato, Cristina Lodi, Mario Raffaelli and Giuseppe Zollino.[93][94]

Opinion polling and seat projections edit

Vote edit

Fieldwork date Polling firm Sample size Lega
ID
PD
S&D
M5S
NI
FI
EPP
NM
EPP
FdI
ECR
EV
G/EFA
SI
Left
UP
Left
+E
Renew
DSP
NI
A
Renew
IV
Renew
Italexit
NI
Others Lead
6–12 Mar 2024 Ixè 1,200 8.2 20.2 15.2 7.7 1.3 27.8 4.7 3.2 3.2 3.5 1.5 3.5[a] 7.6
11 Mar 2024 Euromedia 800 8.7 19.7 17.2 7.7 0.7 28.0 3.9 2.7 4.0 3.5 4.0 8.3[b]
8.6 20.2 16.9 8.2 0.4 28.7 3.4 1.5 4.0 3.8 3.3 8.5[c]
6–11 Mar 2024 SWG 1,200 8.1 20.2 15.4 7.6 1.0 27.1 4.1 1.4 2.7 1.3 4.5 3.1 1.5 2.0 6.9
23 Feb5 Mar 2024 Ipsos 1,503 8.2 19.0 17.4 8.2 27.0 4.1 2.6 3.0 3.4 7.1 8.0
28 Feb1 Mar 2024 Quorum 803 8.1 19.9 15.9 6.6 0.7 27.1 4.6 3.4 3.7 3.5 1.6 4.9 7.2
28 Feb 2024 Euromedia 800 8.6 19.6 17.0 7.9 1.4 27.6 4.0 2.6 4.3 3.1 3.9 8.0[b]
8.7 20.0 17.2 8.5 1.2 28.1 3.9 2.5 4.0 3.5 2.4 8.1[c]
26–28 Feb 2024 Bidimedia 1,000 8.5 20.0 15.5 7.5 0.8 28.1 3.9 1.5 2.4 1.2 4.3 3.0 1.3 2.0 8.1
25–28 Feb 2024 Cluster17 1,022 9.1 19.7 16.0 7.6 0.4 27.3 4.6 0.7 2.1 1.6 4.0 3.0 1.9 2.1 7.6
20–22 Feb 2024 Ipsos 1,000 8.3 18.3 17.0 7.9 1.1 28.2 3.5 1.8 2.2 1.0 3.3 3.6 2.0 1.8 9.9
17–22 Feb 2024 Stack Data Strategy 944 8.7 19.9 15.5 6.6 0.9 27.1 3.7 1.4 4.2 3.3 4.9 1.7 2.1 7.3
21 Feb 2024 Noto - 8.0 19.5 18.0 7.0 2.0 27.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.0 4.5 8.0
30 Jan1 Feb 2024 Termometro Politico 3,800 9.4 19.6 16.2 6.8 29.1 3.0 1.5 2.4 1.7 3.8 2.6 1.4 2.5 9.5
30–31 Jan 2024 Demopolis 9.0 20.0 15.8 7.2 28.0 3.6 2.0 3.8 2.7 8.1 8.0
24–31 Jan 2024 Portland 502 7 21 16 10 28 3 2 3 2 5 1 2[d] 7
24–27 Jan 2024 BiDiMedia 1,000 9.0 19.3 16.1 6.6 1.0 28.6 3.8 1.3 2.5 1.3 4.2 3.1 1.2 2.0 9.3
25–26 Jan 2024 Quorum 803 9.3 19.2 13.6 6.5 1.6 28.4 4.3 2.6 3.7 2.9 1.5 6.4 9.2
24–29 Jan 2024 SWG 1,200 8.7 19.5 15.9 7.2 28.5 3.9 1.3 2.5 4.3 3.3 1.4 3.5 9.0
22–24 Jan 2024 Winpoll 1,000 9.1 21.5 14.6 7.8 27.8 3.0 1.5 2.4 3.2 2.5 1.3 5.3[e] 6.3
12–22 Jan 2024 Euromedia 800 8.4 19.5 17.8 7.5 0.3 28.5 3.4 2.5 4.3 2.8 1.4 3.6 9.0[b]
8.2 19.0 18.1 7.2 0.3 29.3 3.3 2.4 4.6 3.3 1.4 2.9 9.3[c]
17–22 Jan 2024 SWG 1,200 8.5 19.1 16.1 7.4 1.0 28.8 3.6 1.5 2.4 4.3 3.4 1.6 2.3 9.7
16 Jan 2024 Noto 8.0 19.5 17.0 7.0 2.0 28.0 3.5 2.0 3.0 3.0 7.0 8.5[f]
6.5 20.0 17.0 6.5 1.5 32.0 4.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 4.5 12.0[c]
15–16 Jan 2024 Tecnè 800 8.4 19.8 15.6 9.2 29.0 3.9 2.9 11.2 9.2[b]
8.3 19.5 15.6 9.3 29.3 3.9 2.9 11.0 9.8[c]
4 Jan 2024 IZI 1,068 9.3 19.5 17.0 7.4 27.1 4.2 3.0 3.5 3.0 6.0 7.6
30 Dec4 Jan 2024 Lab2101 1,000 10.2 19.8 16.2 5.8 0.7 29.4 4.0 2.3 3.9 2.8 2.3 2.6 9.6
25 Sep 2022 2022 general election 8.8 19.0 15.4 8.1 0.9 26.0 3.6 1.4 2.8 1.2 7.8 1.9 4.3 7.0
26 May 2019 2019 European election 34.3 22.7 17.1 8.8 6.4 2.3 1.8 3.1 0.9 4.5 7.6

Projection of seats in the European Parliament edit

Polling firm Fieldwork date League
ID
PD
S&D
M5S
NI
FI
EPP
FdI
ECR
SVP
EPP
+E
Renew
AVS
G–EFAGUE/NGL
Action
Renew
IV
Renew
Italexit
UP
Others Lead
Europe Elects[95] 4 March 2024 8 17 15 5 25 1 5 - -
ECFR[96] 23 Jan 2024 8 14 13 7 27 1 6 9
Der Föderalist[97] 11 Jan 2024 8 16 14 6 25 1 6[g] 9
Europe Elects[98] 30 Dec 2023 8 17 15 5 26 1 4 9
Europe Elects[99] 30 Nov 2023 9 17 14 5 26 1 4 9
Der Föderalist[100] 06 Nov 2023 8 17 14 7 25 1 5[g] 8
Europe Elects[101] 31 Oct 2023 8 17 14 4 25 1 3 4 8
Europe Elects[102] 30 Sep 2023 9 19 14 4 25 1 4 6
Der Föderalist[103] 11 Sep 2023 8 17 14 7 25 1 5[g] 8
Europe Elects[104] 31 Aug 2023 9 19 15 5 27 1 8
Europe Elects[105] 31 Jul 2023 9 19 15 5 27 1 8
Der Föderalist[106] 17 Jul 2023 8 16 13 7 24 1 8[g] 8
Europe Elects[107] 28 Jun 2023 8 18 15 6 28 1 10
Europe Elects[108] 31 May 2023 8 18 15 4 26 1 4 8
Der Föderalist[109] 22 May 2023 8 18 14 7 25 1 4 7
Europe Elects[110] 30 Apr 2023 9 17 14 4 24 1 7 7
Der Föderalist[111] 27 Mar 2023 8 16 14 7 25 1 5 9
Der Föderalist[112] 1 Feb 2023 8 14 15 7 25 1 6 10
2019 election 26 May 2019 29 19 14 9 6 1 10
  1. ^ PTD 1.1%
  2. ^ a b c d without leaders
  3. ^ a b c d e with leaders
  4. ^ SVP 0%
  5. ^ PSI 0.8%
  6. ^ with party symbols
  7. ^ a b c d With More Europe.

References edit

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See also edit