The 2022 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 8, 2022. Incumbent senator Lisa Murkowski won reelection[1] to a fourth full term, defeating fellow Republican Kelly Tshibaka and Democrat Patricia Chesbro.
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Murkowski: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Tshibaka: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||||||
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After the voter approval of Ballot Measure 2 during the 2020 Alaska elections, this was the first U.S. Senate election in Alaska to be held under a new election process. All candidates ran in a nonpartisan blanket top-four primary on August 16, 2022,[2] and the top four candidates advanced to the general election, where voters will utilize ranked-choice voting.[3]
Murkowski was appointed to the Senate in 2002 by her father, Frank Murkowski, who served as a U.S. senator from Alaska from 1981 until he was elected governor of Alaska. Murkowski has won three Senate elections since then, including a notable write-in campaign in the 2010 election, although she has never won an election with an outright majority of the vote.[4][5][6]
Murkowski was the only Republican senator running for reelection in 2022 who voted to convict former president Donald Trump in his second impeachment trial in 2021. On March 16, 2021, the Alaska Republican Party voted to censure Murkowski and announced that it would recruit a Republican challenger in the 2022 election cycle.[7][8] Following Murkowski's opposition to some of Trump's initiatives and her vote to convict him, Trump endorsed Tshibaka and campaigned against Murkowski.[9][10] The Alaska Republican Party endorsed Tshibaka; Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell and the National Republican Senatorial Committee supported Murkowski.[11]
In addition to Murkowski and Tshibaka, Democrat Pat Chesbro and Republican Buzz Kelley also advanced to the general election. On September 13, Kelley suspended his campaign and endorsed Tshibaka.[12] Murkowski received a plurality of first-place votes, but because no candidate received a majority of the votes in the first round, the instant runoff was triggered. Murkowski won reelection in the third and final round, winning most of the second-choice votes from Chesbro's voters.[13] Since Murkowski won her three previous elections to the U.S. Senate (2004, 2010, and 2016) without a majority of the vote, this election became the fourth election in which she did not receive a majority of the vote in the first round (the other three elections did not employ ranked choice voting with multiple rounds). Murkowski thus holds the record for the most number of elections won by a U.S. Senator without winning a majority of the votes.
Primary election edit
Republican Party edit
Advanced to general edit
- Lisa Murkowski, incumbent U.S. senator[14]
- Kelly Tshibaka, former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Administration[15]
Withdrew after advancing to general edit
Eliminated in primary edit
- Sam Merrill, businessman[16]
- Pat Nolin, mechanic[16]
- John Schiess, perennial candidate[18]
- Kendall L. Shorkey[18]
- Karl Speights, retired U.S. Air Force officer and advisor to Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign[19]
Disqualified edit
- Sam Little, musician, truck driver, National Guard veteran and candidate for governor of Alaska in 2010[19]
Declined edit
- Mike Dunleavy, governor of Alaska[20] (ran for re-election)[21]
- Sarah Palin, former governor of Alaska and nominee for vice president of the United States in 2008 (ran for U.S. House)[22][23]
- Bob Lochner, mechanic and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016[24]
Democratic Party edit
Advanced to general edit
Eliminated in primary edit
- Edgar Blatchford, professor, former mayor of Seward, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2020[27]
- Ivan R. Taylor[28]
Withdrew edit
- Elvi Gray-Jackson, state senator for District I and former Anchorage Assembly member (ran for re-election)[29][30][31]
Libertarian Party edit
Eliminated in primary edit
- Sean Thorne, veteran[32]
Alaskan Independence Party edit
Eliminated in primary edit
- Dustin Darden, city maintenance worker and perennial candidate[19]
- Joe Stephens[33]
Declined edit
- John Howe, machinist and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020 (ran for governor)[27]
Independents edit
Eliminated in primary edit
- Dave Darden, perennial candidate[33]
- Shoshana Gungurstein, businesswoman
- Sid Hill, political gadfly and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014[33]
- Jeremy Keller, television personality[18]
- Huhnkie Lee, attorney, army veteran and Republican candidate for Alaska Senate in 2020[19]
Declined edit
- Al Gross, orthopedic surgeon, commercial fisherman, son of former Alaska Attorney General Avrum Gross, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020 (ran for U.S. House)[34][35]
Results edit
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Lisa Murkowski (incumbent) | 85,794 | 45.05% | |
| Republican | Kelly Tshibaka | 73,414 | 38.55% | |
| Democratic | Patricia Chesbro | 12,989 | 6.82% | |
| Republican | Buzz Kelley | 4,055 | 2.13% | |
| Republican | Pat Nolin | 2,004 | 1.05% | |
| Democratic | Edgar Blatchford | 1,981 | 1.04% | |
| Democratic | Ivan R. Taylor | 1,897 | 1.00% | |
| Republican | Sam Merrill | 1,529 | 0.80% | |
| Libertarian | Sean Thorne | 1,399 | 0.73% | |
| Independent | Shoshana Gungurstein | 853 | 0.45% | |
| Independence | Joe Stephens | 805 | 0.42% | |
| Republican | John Schiess | 734 | 0.39% | |
| Independence | Dustin Darden | 649 | 0.34% | |
| Republican | Kendall L. Shorkey | 627 | 0.33% | |
| Republican | Karl Speights | 613 | 0.32% | |
| Independent | Jeremy Keller | 405 | 0.21% | |
| Independent | Sid Hill | 274 | 0.14% | |
| Independent | Huhnkie Lee | 238 | 0.12% | |
| Independent | Dave Darden | 198 | 0.10% | |
| Total votes | 190,458 | 100.0% | ||
General election edit
Predictions edit
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[37] | Solid R | March 4, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[38] | Solid R | April 1, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[39] | Safe R | March 1, 2022 |
| Politico[40] | Solid R | September 5, 2022 |
| RCP[41] | Safe R | September 15, 2022 |
| Fox News[42] | Solid R | May 12, 2022 |
| DDHQ[43] | Solid R | July 20, 2022 |
| FiveThirtyEight[44] | Solid R | October 24, 2022 |
| The Economist[45] | Safe R | September 7, 2022 |
Debates and forums edit
| No. | Date | Host | Link | Participants | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||
| Lisa Murkowski | Kelly Tshibaka | Patricia Chesbro | Buzz Kelley | ||||
| 1 | September 1, 2022 | Denaʼina Civic and Convention Center Alaska Oil and Gas Association Anchorage Daily News |
Youtube | P | P | P | A |
| 2 | October 10, 2022 | Anchorage Chamber of Commerce | Youtube | P | P | P | W |
Endorsements edit
Pat Chesbro (D)
- Organizations
- Alaska Democratic Party[46]
- The Alaska Center[47]
Lisa Murkowski (R)
- Executive branch officials
- George W. Bush, 43rd President of the United States (2001–2009)[48]
- Governors
- Larry Hogan, Governor of Maryland (2015–2023)[49]
- Bill Walker, Governor of Alaska (2014–2018) (Independent)[50]
- U.S. Senators
- John Barrasso, U.S. Senator from Wyoming (2007–present)[51]
- Susan Collins, U.S. Senator from Maine (1997–present)[52]
- Joni Ernst, U.S. Senator from Iowa (2015–present)[52]
- John Thune, U.S. Senator from South Dakota (2005–present), Senate Minority Whip (2021–present), and former Senate Majority Whip (2019–2021)[53]
- Joe Manchin, U.S. Senator from West Virginia (2010–present) (Democratic)[54]
- Mitch McConnell, U.S Senator from Kentucky (1985–present), Senate Minority Leader (2021–present, 2007–2015), and former Senate Majority Leader (2015–2021)[55]
- Rick Scott, U.S. Senator from Florida (2019–present)[56]
- Dan Sullivan, U.S. Senator from Alaska (2015–present)[57]
- John Cornyn, U.S. Senator from Texas (2002–present)[58]
- Tim Scott, U.S. Senator from South Carolina (2013–present)[59]
- Angus King, U.S. Senator from Maine (2013–present) (Independent)[58]
- Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. Senator from Arizona (2019–present) (Democratic)[58]
- Mark Warner, U.S. Senator from Virginia (2009–present) (Democratic)[58]
- Jeanne Shaheen, U.S. Senator from New Hampshire (2009–present) (Democratic)[58]
- U.S. Representatives
- Adam Kinzinger, U.S. representative from Illinois's 16th congressional district; formerly 17th district (2011–2023)[60]
- Mary Peltola, U.S. representative from Alaska's at-large congressional district (2022–present) (Democratic)[61]
- State Legislators
- Gary Stevens, state senator[62]
- Bryce Edgmon, state representative (Independent)[62]
- Dan Ortiz, state representative (Independent)[62]
- Zack Fields, state representative (Democratic)[62]
- Natasha von Imhof, state senator[63]
- Louise Stutes, state representative, Speaker of the Alaska House of Representatives[63]
- Adam Wool, state representative (Democratic)[63]
- Neal Foster, state representative (Democratic)[63]
- Newspapers
- Organizations
- Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions[65]
- National Republican Senatorial Committee[56]
- National Education Association – Alaska[66]
- Renew America Movement[67]
- Pro-Israel America[68]
- Forward Party[69]
- Alaska Federation of Natives[70]
- Log Cabin Republicans[71]
- American Israel Public Affairs Committee[64]
- American Conservation Coalition[64]
- ClearPath Action Fund[64]
- United Fishermen of Alaska[64]
- ANCSA Regional Association[64]
- United States Chamber of Commerce[72]
- Labor unions
- Alaska AFL–CIO[73]
- Laborers' International Union of North America[64]
- International Longshore and Warehouse Union – Alaska[64]
- Alaska Professional Firefighters Association[64]
- Alaska Teamsters Local 959[64]
- Carpenters Local Union 1281[64]
- Inlandboatmen's Union of the Pacific – Alaska[64]
Kelly Tshibaka (R)
- Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)[74]
- Governors
- Kristi Noem, Governor of South Dakota (2019–present)[75]
- Sarah Palin, Governor of Alaska (2006–2009), candidate for Alaska's at-large congressional district in 2022 and nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2008[76]
- Local officials
- Edgar Blatchford, former mayor of Seward (1999–2003), candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016, 2022 and lieutenant governor in 2018 (Democratic)[77]
- Individuals
- Tuckerman Babcock, political strategist and former chair of the Alaska Republican Party (2016–2018)[78]
- Charlie Kirk, political activist and founder of Turning Point USA[79]
- Donald Trump Jr., businessman and son of former President Donald Trump[80]
- Buzz Kelley, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2022 and retired mechanic[16][17]
- Organizations
- Alaska Republican Party[81]
- American Conservative Union[82]
- Campaign for Working Families[83]
- Family Research Council Action PAC[84]
- Maggie's List[85]
- Susan B. Anthony List[86]
- Oil and Gas Workers' Association[87]
- Alaska Outdoor Council PAC[88]
Polling edit
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Lisa Murkowski (R) |
Kelly Tshibaka (R) |
Pat Chesbro (D) |
Buzz Kelley (R) |
Undecided / Not Ranked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | October 19–22, 2022 | 1,276 (LV) | ±3.0% | ||||||
| 1 | 41% | 39% | 16% | 4% | — | ||||
| 2 | 42% | 41% | 17% | —[c] | — | ||||
| 3 | 56% | 44% | –[d] | — | |||||
| Alaska Survey Research | September 25–27, 2022 | 1,282 (LV) | ±3.0% | ||||||
| 1 | 41% | 39% | 16% | 4% | — | ||||
| 2 | 42% | 41% | 17% | —[c] | — | ||||
| 3 | 57% | 43% | –[d] | — | |||||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[A] | September 6–11, 2022 | 1,050 (LV) | [e] | N/A[f] | 35% | 43% | 13% | 1% | 7% U |
| 1 | 38% | 46% | 14% | 2% | 7% NR | ||||
| 2 | 38% | 47% | 14% | –[g] | 8% NR | ||||
| 3 | 50% | 50% | –[h] | 10% NR |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Pat Chesbro (D) |
Dustin Darden (AIP) |
Elvi Gray-Jackson (D) |
Al Gross (D/I) |
John Howe (AIP) |
Joe Miller (L) |
Lisa Murkowski (R) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Kelly Tshibaka (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | July 2–5, 2022 | 1,201 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 1 | 17% | 5% | – | 35% | – | 43% | – | ||||
| 2 | 20% | – | 36% | 45% | |||||||||||
| 3 | – | 52% | 48% | ||||||||||||
| Cygnal (R)[B] | March 14–16, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 1 | – | 29% | – | 45% | 26% | – | |||||
| ? | 49% | – | 51% | – | |||||||||||
| Alaska Survey Research | October 22–27, 2021 | 969 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 1 | – | 22% | – | 35% | 20% | 23% | – | ||||
| 2 | 23% | 42% | – | 35% | |||||||||||
| 3 | – | 60% | 40% | ||||||||||||
| Alaska Survey Research | July 11–21, 2021 | 947 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 1 | – | 19% | – | 18% | 36% | – | 27% | – | |||
| 2 | 21% | – | 39% | 40% | |||||||||||
| 3 | – | 55% | 45% | ||||||||||||
| Change Research (D)[C] | May 22–25, 2021 | 1,023 (LV) | ± 3.1% | BA | – | 25% | 4% | – | 19% | – | 39% | 1%[i] | 12% | ||
| 3[j] | 46% | – | – | 54% | – | ||||||||||
Lisa Murkowski vs. Kelly Tshibaka
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Lisa Murkowski (R) |
Kelly Tshibaka (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | April 16–21, 2022 | 1,208 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 55% | 45% | – |
Results edit
| Party | Candidate | First Choice | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | ||||
| Republican | Lisa Murkowski (incumbent) | 113,495 | 43.37% | +623 | 114,118 | 43.39% | +1,641 | 115,759 | 44.49% | +20,571 | 136,330 | 53.70% | ||
| Republican | Kelly Tshibaka | 111,480 | 42.60% | +621 | 112,101 | 42.62% | +3,209 | 115,310 | 44.32% | +2,224 | 117,534 | 46.30% | ||
| Democratic | Pat Chesbro | 27,145 | 10.37% | +1,088 | 28,233 | 10.73% | +901 | 29,134 | 11.20% | −29,134 | Eliminated | |||
| Republican | Buzz Kelley (withdrew)[a] | 7,557 | 2.89% | +1,018 | 8,575 | 3.26% | −8,575 | Eliminated | ||||||
| Write-in | 2,028 | 0.77% | -2,028 | Eliminated | ||||||||||
| Total votes | 261,705 | 263,027 | 260,203 | 253,864 | ||||||||||
| Blank or inactive ballots | 3,770 | +2,824 | 6,594 | +6,339 | 12,933 | |||||||||
| Republican hold | ||||||||||||||
See also edit
Notes edit
- ^ a b Remained on the ballot because he withdrew after the deadline of 64 days ahead of the election.[17]
- ^ a b c Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ a b Kelley eliminated.
- ^ a b Chesbro eliminated.
- ^ The margin of sampling error for the 500 statewide sample is ±4.4%; for the 840 total sample of voters 50+ is ±3.3%.
- ^ Standard polling question.
- ^ Kelley eliminated. Vote transfer breakdown: 29% to Tshibaka and 71% not ranked further.
- ^ Chesbro eliminated. Vote transfer breakdown: 77% to Murkowski, 8% to Tshibaka, and 15% not ranked further.
- ^ Would not vote with 1%
- ^ Excluding undecided voters
Partisan clients
- ^ Poll sponsored by AARP
- ^ This poll was sponsored by Kelly Tshibaka's campaign
- ^ This poll was sponsored by 314 Action
References edit
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The state elections office says others who have registered for Senate include Dustin Darden with the Alaskan Independence Party, Huhnkie Lee, who is undeclared, and Republicans Samuel Little and Karl Speights.
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- ^ a b c d Downing, Suzanne (February 8, 2022). "Lisa gets support from State Sen. von Imhof; Tshibaka brings in Alaska Outdoor Council endorsement for Senate". Must Read Alaska. Archived from the original on February 8, 2022. Retrieved February 11, 2022.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m "Endorsements - Lisa Murkowski for US Senate". lisamurkowski.com. Retrieved November 6, 2022.
- ^ "Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions Announces Second Round of Congressional Endorsements for the 2022 Election Cycle". cresenergy.com. Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions. May 4, 2022. Archived from the original on August 21, 2022. Retrieved June 7, 2022.
- ^ "Notes from the trail: Palin stumps in Georgia and Murkowski endorsed by NEA-Alaska". May 22, 2022. Archived from the original on May 22, 2022. Retrieved May 28, 2022.
- ^ "Anti-Trump Republicans endorsing vulnerable Democrats to prevent GOP takeover". The Hill. October 14, 2021. Archived from the original on October 19, 2021. Retrieved October 14, 2021.
- ^ "Endorsed Candidates". proisraelamerica.org. Archived from the original on December 20, 2021. Retrieved January 22, 2022.
- ^ "Endorsements". Forward Party.
- ^ "AFN endorses Peltola and Murkowski, citing accomplishments and commitments". alaskabeacon.com. October 23, 2022. Retrieved October 31, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Endorsed Candidates".
- ^ Hall, Joelle; Bradley, Neil (October 18, 2022). "Opinion: Murkowski is a champion for workers and our economy". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved December 19, 2022.
- ^ Brooks, James (June 23, 2022). "Alaska AFL-CIO endorses Walker, Murkowski, Peltola". Archived from the original on June 27, 2022. Retrieved June 27, 2022.
- ^ Axelrod, Tal (June 18, 2021). "Trump endorses Murkowski challenger". The Hill. Archived from the original on August 21, 2022. Retrieved June 18, 2021.
- ^ "Gov. Kristi Noem endorsing Kelly Tshibaka for Senate". May 12, 2022. Archived from the original on May 28, 2022. Retrieved May 28, 2022.
- ^ "Trump rallies his Alaska faithful against Murkowski, for Tshibaka and Palin". alaskapublic.org. July 9, 2022. Retrieved October 31, 2022.
- ^ "Trump-endorsed Kelly Tshibaka won on Wednesday the endorsement of Edgar Blatchford, a former U.S. Senate Democrat candidate and mayor of Seward". Twitter. September 7, 2022. Retrieved November 6, 2022.
- ^ Surreal ValeCity (April 5, 2021). "Former Republican Chairmen endorse Kelly Tshibaka". www.surrealvalecity.com. Archived from the original on April 9, 2021. Retrieved April 7, 2021.
- ^ "Notes from the trail: Walker picks up new co-chairs". July 23, 2022. Archived from the original on July 25, 2022. Retrieved July 25, 2022.
- ^ Downing, Suzanne (August 6, 2021). "Donald Trump Jr. jumps in, supports Kelly Tshibaka for Senate". Must Read Alaska. Archived from the original on August 10, 2021. Retrieved August 10, 2021.
- ^ Celine Castronuovo (July 10, 2021). "Alaska GOP endorses Murkowski primary challenger". The Hill. Archived from the original on July 10, 2021. Retrieved July 10, 2021.
- ^ Bratton, Regina (September 29, 2021). "The Conservative Political Action Coalition (CPAC) today announced its endorsement Kelly Tshibaka for U.S. Senator of the State of Alaska". American Conservative Union. Archived from the original on June 26, 2022. Retrieved June 26, 2022.
- ^ "Endorsed Candidates". Campaign for Working Families. Archived from the original on November 30, 2020. Retrieved August 3, 2022.
- ^ "FRC Action PAC Endorses Kelly Tshibaka for U.S. Senate in Alaska". June 27, 2022. Archived from the original on August 13, 2022. Retrieved August 13, 2022.
- ^ Manchester, Julia (December 22, 2021). "Conservative women's group backing Murkowski challenger". The Hill. Archived from the original on December 22, 2021. Retrieved December 22, 2021.
- ^ "Tshibaka endorsed by leading national pro-life women's group". alaskawatchman.com. September 22, 2022. Retrieved October 31, 2022.
- ^ Downing, Suzanne (March 9, 2022). "Oil and Gas Workers Association endorses Tshibaka". Mustreadalaska.com. Archived from the original on March 12, 2022. Retrieved March 18, 2022.
- ^ "POLITICAL CANDIDATE SURVEY AND ENDORSEMENTS". alaskaoutdoorcouncil.org. June 30, 2022. Retrieved November 8, 2022.
- ^ "State of Alaska 2022 General Election RCV Detailed Report" (PDF). Alaska Division of Elections. November 30, 2022. Retrieved January 9, 2023.
- ^ "State of Alaska 2022 GENERAL ELECTION Election Summary Report" (PDF). Alaska Division of Elections. November 30, 2022. Retrieved January 8, 2023.
External links edit
Official campaign websites