2021 Berlin state election

The 2021 Berlin state election is expected to be held on 26 September 2021 to elect the 19th Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.[1][2] The current government is coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), The Left, and The Greens led by Governing Mayor Michael Müller. Müller will not run for re-election as Mayor, and federal minister Franziska Giffey will instead lead the SPD in the election.[3]

2021 Berlin state election

← 2016 26 September 2021

All 130 seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (plus overhang and leveling seats)
66+ seats needed for a majority
 
MJK 19248 Franziska Giffey (SPD-Bundesparteitag 2018).jpg
2014-09-09 - Kai Wegner MdB - 7002.jpg
2017-11-16 Klaus Lederer (Wiki Loves Parliaments 2017 in Berlin) by Sandro Halank.jpg
Candidate Franziska Giffey Kai Wegner Klaus Lederer
Party SPD CDU Left
Leader's seat [b] [a]
Last election 38 seats, 21.6% 31 seats, 17.6% 27 seats, 15.6%

 
Pressefoto Bettina-Jarasch 2014.jpg
Kristin_Brinker,_AfD_(Martin_Rulsch)_2017-11-16.jpg
Portrait Sebastian Czaja.jpg
Candidate Bettina Jarasch Kristin Brinker Sebastian Czaja
Party Green AfD FDP
Leader's seat List List List
Last election 27 seats, 15.2% 25 seats, 14.2% 12 seats, 6.7%

Incumbent Mayor and Government

Michael Müller (SPD)
SPDLeftGreen



Election dateEdit

The last election took place on 18 September 2016. The Abgeordnetenhaus has a term of five years, so the next regular elections must take place no later than September 2021.[2] Federal Minister of the Interior Horst Seehofer has recommended that the election take place on the same date as the 2021 German federal election, which is expected to be held on 26 September 2021.[1]

Electoral systemEdit

The Abgeordnetenhaus is elected via mixed-member proportional representation. 78 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. 52 members are then allocated using compensatory proportional representation, distributed in each of Berlin's twelve boroughs. Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates in single-member constituencies, and the "second vote" for party lists, which are used to fill the proportional seats. The minimum size of the Abgeordnetenhaus is 130 members, but if overhang seats are present, proportional leveling seats will be added to ensure proportionality. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Abgeordnetenhaus; parties that fall below this threshold are excluded from the Abgeordnetenhaus. However, parties which win at least one single-member constituency are exempt from the threshold and will be allocated seats proportionally, even if they fall below 5%.[2]

BackgroundEdit

In the previous election held on 13 March 2016, the SPD remained the largest party with 21.6% of the vote, a loss of 6.7 percentage points. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) was the second largest party with 17.6%, a loss of 5.7 points. The Left overtook The Greens to become the third largest party on 15.6%, while The Greens won 15.2%. Alternative for Germany (AfD) contested their first election in Berlin, winning 14.2%. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) re-entered the Abgeordnetenhaus with 6.7%.

The SPD had led a coalition with the CDU since 2011, but this government lost its majority in the election. The SPD subsequently formed a coalition with The Left and The Greens.

PartiesEdit

The table below lists parties currently represented in the 18th Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.

Name Ideology Lead
candidate
Leader(s) 2016 result
Votes (%) Seats
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands
Social democracy Franziska Giffey Franziska Giffey
Raed Saleh
21.6%
38 / 160
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands
Christian democracy Kai Wegner Kai Wegner 17.6%
31 / 160
Linke The Left
Die Linke
Democratic socialism Klaus Lederer Katina Schubert 15.6%
27 / 160
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
Green politics Bettina Jarasch Nina Stahr
Werner Graf
15.2%
27 / 160
AfD Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland
Right-wing populism Kristin Brinker Kristin Brinker 14.2%
25 / 160
FDP Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei
Classical liberalism Sebastian Czaja Christoph Meyer 6.7%
12 / 160

CampaignEdit

Lead candidatesEdit

On 5 October 2020, the Greens nominated Bettina Jarasch, spokeswoman for integration and refugees, as their lead candidate for the election. She previously served as chairwoman of the state party from 2011 to 2016.[4] She was formally elected as lead candidate on 12 December.[5]

On 9 October, state CDU leader Kai Wegner was selected as his party's lead candidate.[6]

Prior to the election, incumbent mayor Michael Müller voiced his desire to move into federal politics rather than seek another term. On 30 November 2020, the state party executive nominated Federal Minister for Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth Franziska Giffey as lead candidate for the election. She was simultaneously elected co-leader of the Berlin branch of the party alongside parliamentary group leader Raed Saleh.[6][3]

On 8 December, The Left nominated incumbent Deputy Mayor and Senator for Culture Klaus Lederer as its lead candidate for the election. Lederer is noted as one of the most popular politicians in Berlin, achieving consistently high approval ratings.[7]

On 27 March 2021, the FDP elected parliamentary group leader Sebastian Czaja as their lead candidate for the election.[8]

Opinion pollingEdit

Graphical summaryEdit

Local regression of polls conducted.

Party pollingEdit

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
SPD CDU Linke Grüne AfD FDP Others Lead
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 13–16 Sep 2021 1,000 21 17 12 20 9 8 13 1
Infratest dimap 13–15 Sep 2021 1,510 24 16 13 18 10 7 12[c] 6
Wahlkreisprognose 9–14 Sep 2021 1,553 25 14.5 14.5 14.5 10.5 8.5 12.5 10.5
Wahlkreisprognose 23–24 Aug 2021 1,050 24.5 15 15 15.5 11 9.5 9.5 9
Infratest dimap 18–21 Aug 2021 1,160 23 19 12 17 11 8 10 4
INSA 16–23 Aug 2021 1,000 22 16 15 18 12 9 8[d] 4
Forsa 5–10 Aug 2021 2,007 21 17 14 21 10 7 10 Tie
Wahlkreisprognose 24–31 Jul 2021 2,420 24 18 15 15.5 9 9 9.5 6
Wahlkreisprognose 29 Jun–6 Jul 2021 2,950 21 20 14 16 9.5 10.5 9.5 1
INSA 16–22 Jun 2021 1,000 18 18 13 22 12 10 7[e] 3
Infratest dimap 9–14 Jun 2021 1,198 17 21 12 22 10 9 9 1
Wahlkreisprognose 3–10 Jun 2021 1,553 20.5 18 13 16 8.5 12.5 11.5[f] 2.5
INSA 11–17 May 2021 1,000 20 16 13 25 12 9 5[g] 5
Infratest dimap 20–24 Apr 2021 ? 17 18 14 27 9 7 8 9
INSA 12–20 Apr 2021 1,024 19 16 14 25 12 10 4 6
Infratest dimap 16–20 Feb 2021 1,007 18 22 15 23 9 6 7 1
INSA 11–18 Dec 2020 1,002 18 22 16 18 12 7 7 4
INSA 28 Sep–5 Oct 2020 1,007 18 21 16 20 12 6 7 1
Infratest dimap 15–19 Sep 2020 1,001 15 22 15 26 10 6 6 4
INSA 7–13 Jul 2020 1,012 16 21 18 19 12 5 9 2
Infratest dimap 22–25 Apr 2020 1,002 20 23 14 21 10 5 7 2
Forsa 29 Jan–6 Feb 2020 1,011 15 16 17 25 11 6 10 8
INSA 10–18 Dec 2019 1,006 15 18 19 23 13 7 5 4
Forsa 12–19 Dec 2019 1,005 15 17 19 22 11 6 10 3
Forsa 21–28 Nov 2019 1,006 16 17 17 25 11 5 10 8
Infratest dimap 11–16 Nov 2019 1,003 16 18 17 23 14 5 7 5
Forsa 22–31 Oct 2019 1,002 15 18 16 25 11 5 10 7
Forsa 17–26 Sep 2019 1,002 16 17 16 24 11 6 10 7
INSA 10–16 Sep 2019 1,018 15 17 18 24 14 6 6 6
Forsa 20–29 Aug 2019 1,003 16 16 17 24 11 6 10 7
Forsa 17–25 Jul 2019 1,001 16 17 18 25 10 5 9 7
Forsa 17–27 Jun 2019 1,004 15 17 17 25 10 7 9 8
Forsa 20–27 May 2019 1,006 16 15 17 26 11 7 8 9
Infratest dimap 30 Apr–3 May 2019 1,000 15 17 19 23 10 6 10 4
Forsa 16–25 Apr 2019 1,005 16 17 18 25 11 7 6 7
INSA 5–8 Apr 2019 1,030 16 19 19 19 12 9 6 Tie
INSA 19–28 Mar 2019 1,003 15 18 18 25 10 8 6 7
Forsa 20–28 Feb 2019 1,001 17 20 18 22 11 7 5 2
Forsa 22–31 Jan 2019 1,002 16 19 20 21 11 8 5 1
Forsa 11–19 Dec 2018 1,009 15 17 18 23 13 7 7 5
INSA 10–17 Dec 2018 1,007 16 18 16 21 14 8 7 3
Forsa 19–29 Nov 2018 1,003 15 18 18 23 13 7 6 5
Infratest dimap 14–17 Nov 2018 1,002 15 18 18 24 13 6 6 6
INSA 23 Oct–2 Nov 2018 1,019 16 16 17 22 15 7 7 5
Forsa October 2018 1,005 15 16 19 22 13 8 7 3
Forsa 19–27 Sep 2018 1,005 16 17 22 18 13 7 7 4
Forsa 21–30 Aug 2018 1,004 17 19 21 18 12 6 7 2
Forsa 16–26 Jul 2018 1,009 17 19 21 17 13 7 6 2
INSA 9–16 Jul 2018 1,012 17 18 17 18 14 7 9 Tie
Forsa 20–28 Jun 2018 1,009 19 18 21 16 11 8 7 2
Forsa 22–31 May 2018 1,004 18 19 20 18 11 7 7 1
Infratest dimap 9–12 May 2018 1,000 18 21 22 15 11 6 7 1
Forsa 17–26 Apr 2018 1,001 19 19 19 18 11 7 7 Tie
INSA 3–9 Apr 2018 1,039 19 19 19 17 13 8 5 Tie
Forsa 19–28 Mar 2018 1,003 20 20 18 17 12 7 6 Tie
Forsa 12–22 Feb 2018 1,006 19 19 20 18 12 6 6 1
Forsa 15–25 Jan 2018 1,008 20 19 18 17 11 7 8 1
Forsa 12–21 Dec 2017 1,002 20 20 18 17 11 6 8 Tie
Forsa 13–23 Nov 2017 1,002 18 21 18 16 11 8 8 3
Forsa 17–26 Oct 2017 1,011 19 20 18 14 11 9 9 1
Forsa 26 Sep–5 Oct 2017 1,002 18 19 19 15 11 9 9 Tie
Infratest dimap 6–9 Sep 2017 1,000 21 23 19 14 10 7 6 2
Forsa 22–30 Aug 2017 1,005 19 21 17 14 9 11 9 2
Forsa 18–27 Jul 2017 1,007 20 22 18 14 8 9 9 2
Forsa 22–29 Jun 2017 1,003 21 22 17 14 8 9 9 1
Forsa 16–24 May 2017 1,001 22 23 16 13 8 8 10 1
Infratest dimap 17–20 May 2017 1,000 22 24 17 13 10 8 6 2
Forsa 19–27 Apr 2017 1,002 24 20 16 12 9 8 11 4
Forsa 20–30 Mar 2017 1,005 25 20 16 13 8 7 11 5
Forsa 13–23 Mar 2017 1,004 25 17 16 13 10 8 11 8
Forsa 16–26 Jan 2017 1,008 20 20 16 15 12 8 9 Tie
Forsa 12–23 Dec 2016 1,003 20 20 17 16 12 7 8 Tie
Forsa 14–24 Nov 2017 1,001 19 20 16 17 13 7 8 1
Infratest dimap 21–23 Nov 2016 1,003 21 19 17 15 13 7 8 2
Forsa 19–27 Oct 2016 1,002 20 18 16 16 13 7 10 2
2016 state election 18 Sep 2016 21.6 17.6 15.6 15.2 14.2 6.7 7.4 4.0

NotesEdit

  1. ^ Klaus Lederer was elected on the Left list in the 2016 election, but resigned from the Abgeordnetenhaus in January 2017.
  2. ^ Kai Wegner is a Member of the Bundestag.
  3. ^ Tierschutzpartei 3%, Others 9%
  4. ^ Free Voters 3%, Others 5%
  5. ^ Free Voters 2%, Others 5%
  6. ^ PARTEI 5%, Others 6.5%
  7. ^ Free Voters 3%, Others 2%

ReferencesEdit

  1. ^ a b "The date for the Abgeordnetenhaus election in 2021 is approaching". Government of Berlin. 20 November 2020.
  2. ^ a b c "Wahlen". Berlin Ministry for the Interior and Sport.
  3. ^ a b "SPD state executive nominates Franziska Giffey as the top candidate". Der Spiegel. 30 November 2020.
  4. ^ "Bettina Jarasch is to become the Green top candidate". T-Online. 5 October 2020.
  5. ^ "Berlin Greens choose Jarasch as the top candidate". Rundfunk Berlin-Brandenburg. 12 December 2020.
  6. ^ a b "Kai Wegner wants to be mayoral candidate of the CDU in Berlin". Der Spiegel. 9 October 2020.
  7. ^ "Left nominates Senator for Culture Klaus Lederer as lead candidate". Der Tagesspiegel. 8 December 2020.
  8. ^ "Czaja is FDP lead candidate for the Abgeordnetenhaus election". Berliner Morgenpost. 27 March 2021.

External linksEdit