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2019 Uruguayan general election

General elections were held in Uruguay on Sunday, 27 October 2019 to elect the President and General Assembly. As no presidential candidate received a majority in the first round of voting, a runoff election took place on 24 November.

2019 Uruguayan general election

← 2014 27 October 2019 (first round)
24 November 2019 (second round)
2024 →
Presidential election
  Lacalle Pou 2019.jpg Daniel Martínez (cropped).jpg
Nominee Luis Lacalle Pou Daniel Martínez
Party National Party Broad Front
Running mate Beatriz Argimón Graciela Villar
Popular vote 1,189,313 1,152,271
Percentage 50.79% 49.21%

Map of 2019 Uruguayan presidential election.svg
Map of the presidential results

President before election

Tabaré Vázquez
Broad Front

Elected President

Luis Lacalle Pou
National Party

Parliamentary election

Party Leader % Seats ±
Chamber
Broad Front Daniel Martínez 40.49% 42 -8
National Party Luis Lacalle Pou 29.70% 30 -2
Colorado Party Ernesto Talvi 12.80% 13 0
Open Cabildo Guido Manini Ríos 11.46% 11 New
PERI César Vega 1.43% 1 +1
Party of the Folk Edgardo Novick 1.12% 1 New
Independent Party Pablo Mieres 1.01% 1 -2
Senate
Broad Front Daniel Martínez 40.49% 13 -2
National Party Luis Lacalle Pou 29.70% 10 0
Colorado Party Ernesto Talvi 12.80% 4 0
Open Cabildo Guido Manini Ríos 11.46% 3 New
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.

In the 2014 elections, the left-wing Broad Front won a third consecutive election with absolute majorities in both houses of the General Assembly. The Broad Front's term in office еarned support through the creation of a large welfare system, but at the same time was undermined by an increasing budget deficit, along with rising unemployment and a spike in violence. The election campaign focused primarily around the issue of crime, with each party proposing different solutions. A constitutional referendum was held alongside the elections on amendments proposed by opposition Senator Jorge Larrañaga, which proposed the introduction of a National Guard and tougher security measures.[1][2][3]

As incumbent president Tabaré Vázquez was unable to seek re-election due to constitutional term limits, the Broad Front nominated former Montevideo mayor Daniel Martínez as its presidential candidate. The National Party nominated its 2014 candidate Luis Lacalle Pou, the Colorado Party nominated the economist Ernesto Talvi and the new Open Cabildo party, nominated former commander-in-chief of the Uruguayan Army, Guido Manini Ríos.

Heading into the elections, most opinion polls predicted a run-off between Martínez and Lacalle Pou, along with the loss of the Broad Front's congressional majority and the growth of Open Cabildo. In the first round of voting, the Broad Front saw its worst results since the 1999 elections, but Martínez still received the most votes and qualified for the runoff along with Lacalle Pou, who subsequently received support from most of the eliminated opposition parties.[4] In the runoff, Lacalle Pou defeated Martínez by just over 37,000 votes in a tight race, with the final result only declared after the counting of absentee ballots.

The elections marked the first loss for the Broad Front in a presidential election since 1999, with Lacalle Pou becoming the first National Party president since his father, Luis Alberto Lacalle de Herrera, who held office from 1990 to 1995.

BackgroundEdit

The 2014 elections had resulted in a third consecutive victory for the Broad Front, along with an absolute majority in the General Assembly. Tabaré Vázquez, the winner of the presidential election, was ineligible to run again due to constitutional term limits. As a result, the governing Broad Front had to nominate a new candidate.

The economy had seen continued growth since 2003, allowing the government to invest heavily in social programs, pensions and health care. However, improved poverty and inequality ratios came at the cost of a budget deficit that reached 4.8 percent of GDP by the end of August 2019. According to political analysts, the Broad Front was predicted to lose its congressional majority, which combined with an increase in the number of parties expected to win seats in Congress, would make coalition negotiations difficult.[1]

Electoral systemEdit

The elections were held using the double simultaneous vote method, whereby voters cast a single vote for the party of their choice for all three of the Presidency, the Senate and the Chamber of Representatives.

The President of Uruguay was elected using the two-round system, with a run-off held when no candidate received 50% of the vote in the first round. The 30 members of the Senate were elected by proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency. The vice president, elected on the same ballot as the president, becomes president of the Senate, with their vote being the casting one when Senate votes are tied.[5] The 99 members of the Chamber of Representatives were elected by closed list proportional representation in 19 multi-member constituencies based on the departments. Seats were allocated using the highest averages method.[6]

CandidatesEdit

Campaign slogansEdit

Candidate Party Original slogan English translation Ref
Daniel Martínez Broad Front No perder lo Bueno, hacerlo mejor "Don't lose what is good, improve it" [8]
Luis Lacalle Pou National Party Lo que nos une "What unites us" [9]
Ernesto Talvi Colorado Party Un pequeño país modelo "A small model country" [10]
Edgardo Novick Party of the Folk Tolerancia Cero "Zero Tolerance" [11]

Opinion pollsEdit

Polling firm Fieldwork date FA PN PC CA PG PI Others Blank/Abs. Undecided Lead
Opción Consultores[12] October 2019 33% 25% 10% 12% N/A 1% N/A N/A N/A 8%
Radar[13] October 2019 39% 21% 16% 12% 0.8% 1.1% N/A N/A N/A 8%
Opción Consultores[14] September 2019 29% 24% 15% 12% 2% 2% N/A N/A N/A 8%
Factum[15] August 2019 37% 26% 19% 9% 2% 2% 18% N/A N/A 7%
Cifra[16] February 2019 34% 27% 14% 3% 2% - 2% 18% - 7%
Factum[17] February 2019 38% 30% 16% 5% 4% 2% N/A 5% N/A 8%
Radar[18] January/February 2019 37% 28% 13% 3% 2% 1% 2% 7% 7% 9%
Radar[19] December 2018 33% 27% 12% 4% 3% 1% N/A 9% 9% 6%
Opción Consultores[20] December 2018 26% 27% 12% 5% 5% 2%. N/A 11% 12% 1%
Equipos[21] December 2018 30% 34% 11% 1% 2% 1% 1% 7% 13% 4%
Factum[22] November 2018 34% 30% 16% 7% 6% 2% N/A 5% N/A 4%
Radar[23] November 2018 32% 26% 13% 4% 3% N/A 2% 10% 10% 6%
Cifra[24] October 2018 36% 31% 9% 5% 6% 3% N/A 10% N/A 5%
Factum[25] August 2018 34% 30% 12% 7% 6% 2% N/A 9% N/A 4%
Radar[26] August 2018 30% 30% 8% 6% 2% 3% N/A 11% 10%  –
Cifra[27] August 2018 27% 26% 4% 3% 4% 1% N/A 35% 1%
Opción Consultores[28] July 2018 28% 31% 9% 8% 4% 2% N/A 8% 10% 3%
Radar[29] February 2018 33% 28% 7% 2% 2% N/A 3% 11% 13% 5%
Factum[30] April 2017 31% 30% 6% 9% 4% 2% N/A 18% N/A 1%

ResultsEdit

On 25 November, preliminary results in the runoff election showed Lacalle Pou with a majority (48.71%) by 28,666 votes over Martínez (47.51%), which delayed the announcement of a winner as 35,229 absentee vote needed to be counted.[31][32] Martínez later conceded defeat on 28 November.[32] On 30 November, final votes counts confirmed Lacalle Pou as the winner with 48.8% of the total votes cast over Martínez with 47.3%.[33]

 
Map of the legislative results
  
Party Presidential candidate First round Second round Seats
Votes % Votes % Chamber +/– Senate +/–
Broad Front Daniel Martínez 949,376 40.49 1,152,271 49.21 42 –8 13 –2
National Party Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou 696,452 29.70 1,189,313 50.79 30 –2 10 0
Colorado Party Ernesto Talvi 300,177 12.80 13 0 4 0
Open Cabildo Guido Manini Ríos 268,736 11.46 11 New 3 New
Partido Ecologista Radical Intransigente César Vega 33,461 1.43 1 +1 0 0
Party of the Folk Edgardo Novick 26,313 1.12 1 +1 0 0
Independent Party Pablo Mieres 23,580 1.01 1 –2 0 –1
Popular Unity Gonzalo Abella 19,728 0.84 0 –1 0 0
Green Animalist Party Gustavo Salle 19,392 0.83 0 New 0 New
Digital Party Daniel Goldman 6,363 0.27 0 New 0 New
Workers' Party Rafael Fernández 1,387 0.06 0 0 0 0
Invalid/blank votes 88,399 91,612
Total 2,433,364 100 2,433,196 100 99 0 30 0
Registered voters/turnout 2,699,978 90.13 2,699,980 90.12
Source: Corte Electoral, El Pais (First round); Corte Electoral El Pais (Second round)
Popular vote (First round)
FA
40.49%
PN
29.70%
PC
12.80%
CA
11.46%
PERI
1.43%
PG
1.12%
PI
1.01%
Others
2.00%
Popular vote (second round)
Lacalle
50.62%
Martínez
49.38%
Seats (chamber)
FA
42.42%
PN
30.30%
PC
13.13%
CA
11.11%
PERI
1.11%
PG
1.11%
PI
1.11%
Seats (senate)
FA
43.33%
PN
33.33%
PC
13.33%
CA
10.00%

ReferencesEdit

  1. ^ a b "Uruguays left-wing party faces its toughest election in 15 years". Buenos Aires Times. 25 October 2019.
  2. ^ "Crime top concern in Uruguay's general election". 27 October 2019. Retrieved 2 November 2019.
  3. ^ "Uruguay's presidential poll to go to second round". 28 October 2019. Retrieved 2 November 2019.
  4. ^ ElPais. "Lea aquí el borrador del acuerdo de la coalición de los partidos de la oposición". Diario EL PAIS Uruguay (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 November 2019.
  5. ^ Electoral system IPU
  6. ^ Electoral system IPU
  7. ^ Comunicado de prensa de la Corte Electoral - 27 de julio de 2018 Electoral Court
  8. ^ "Eleições presidenciais: Para onde vai o Uruguai?". Revista Fórum (in Portuguese). 27 October 2019. Retrieved 28 November 2019.
  9. ^ Redacción (28 November 2019). "Daniel Martínez reconoce la victoria de Luis Lacalle en las elecciones presidenciales de Uruguay". Retrieved 28 November 2019.
  10. ^ ElPais. "Muñoz apuntó contra slogan de Talvi: "Nosotros queremos un modelo bien grande"". Diario EL PAIS Uruguay (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 November 2019.
  11. ^ ElPais. "Con 6% de intención de voto, Cabildo Abierto se posiciona como la cuarta fuerza política". Diario EL PAIS Uruguay (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 November 2019.
  12. ^ "Intención de Voto Octubre 2019" (in Spanish).
  13. ^ "Crece Manini a un 12%, caen Martínez, Lacalle y Talvi en ese orden" (in Spanish).
  14. ^ "Encuesta de Opción: crecieron levemente el FA y el PN, descendió el PC" (in Spanish).
  15. ^ "Escenarios de Balotaje".
  16. ^ "Inicio de sesión en El País". sso.elpais.com.uy. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  17. ^ "Factum: FA 38%; PN 30%; PC 16%; PGente 5%, PI 4%,UP 2%". 2019.com.uy. 26 February 2019. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  18. ^ "Encuesta de Grupo Radar: Creció la intención de voto del Frente Amplio - VTV Noticias". vtv.com.uy. 12 February 2019. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  19. ^ "Para Radar, el FA está primero en intención de voto y a seis puntos del Partido Nacional". Diario EL PAIS Uruguay. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  20. ^ "Partido Nacional supera al Frente Amplio, según la última encuesta de Opción Consultores". subrayado.com.uy. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  21. ^ "Encuesta: FA cierra 2018 abajo de los blancos". Diario EL PAIS Uruguay. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  22. ^ "Colorados duplican su intención de voto en último semestre tras retorno de Sanguinetti". El Observador. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  23. ^ "14-11-2018 – (difundido en VTV Noticias) Vuelve a crecer el FA, y Martínez supera a Lacalle por 9 puntos. Crece fuertemente el PC « Grupo Radar". gruporadar.com.uy. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  24. ^ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO "SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY" - Cifra". cifra.com.uy. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  25. ^ "Los movimientos políticos que impactan en la intención de voto. Encuesta Nacional Factum del tercer trimestre de 2018". Factum (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 13 September 2018.
  26. ^ "23-08-2018 – (difundido en VTV Noticias) Empate entre FA y PN, pero Martínez supera a Lacalle por 5 puntos. Crece la Oposición en su conjunto « Grupo Radar". gruporadar.com.uy. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  27. ^ "CIFRA: Lideran los Indecisos NS/NC y en blanco con 35%; FA 27%; PN 26%; PC y PI 4%; y 3% PGente". 2019.com.uy. 8 August 2018. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  28. ^ "Elecciones: el Partido Nacional es el que tiene mayor aprobación, según encuesta de Opción". El Observador. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  29. ^ "08-02-2018 – (difundido en VTV Noticias) El FA supera al PN por 5 puntos en intención de voto por partido. « Grupo Radar". gruporadar.com.uy. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  30. ^ "Intención de voto por partido. Primer trimestre 2017". Factum (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 7 May 2017.
  31. ^ "Elecciones en Uruguay: con el 100% de las mesas escrutadas, ¿cómo terminó la votación?". La Nación (in Spanish). 25 November 2019. Retrieved 25 November 2019.
  32. ^ a b "Uruguay election: Lacalle wins presidency as rival concedes". BBC.com. 28 November 2019. Retrieved 1 December 2019.
  33. ^ "Lacalle won with 48.8% and Martínez obtained 47.3% in the 2019 ballot: look at the results". El Pais. 30 November 2019. Retrieved 1 December 2019.

External linksEdit