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The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season is an ongoing event in the annual formation of tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere. The season officially began on June 1, 2019, and will end on November 30, 2019. These dates historically describe the period each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin and are adopted by convention. However, tropical cyclogenesis is possible at any time of the year, as demonstrated by the formation of Subtropical Storm Andrea on May 20, marking the record fifth year in a row where a tropical or subtropical cyclone developed before the official start of the season, breaking the previous record of four years set in 1951–1954.[1]

2019 Atlantic hurricane season
2019 Atlantic hurricane season summary map.png
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formedMay 20, 2019
Last system dissipatedSeason ongoing
Strongest storm
NameAndrea
 • Maximum winds40 mph (65 km/h)
(1-minute sustained)
 • Lowest pressure1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg)
Seasonal statistics
Total depressions1
Total storms1
Hurricanes0
Major hurricanes
(Cat. 3+)
0
Total fatalitiesNone
Total damageNone
Related articles
Atlantic hurricane seasons
2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021

Contents

Seasonal forecastsEdit

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2019 season
Source Date Named
storms
Hurricanes Major
hurricanes
Average (1981–2010)[2] 12.1 6.4 2.7
Record high activity 28 15 7
Record low activity 4 2 0
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
TSR[3] December 11, 2018 12 5 2
CSU[4] April 4, 2019 13 5 2
TSR[5] April 5, 2019 12 5 2
NCSU[6] April 16, 2019 13–16 5–7 2–3
TWC[7] May 6, 2019 14 7 3
UKMO[8] May 21, 2019 13* 7* 3*
NOAA[9] May 23, 2019 9–15 4–8 2–4
TSR[10] May 30, 2019 12 6 2
CSU[11] June 4, 2019 14 6 2
UA[12] June 11, 2019 16 8 3
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Actual activity
1 0 0
* June–November only.
† Most recent of several such occurrences. (See all)

Ahead of and during the season, several national meteorological services and scientific agencies forecast how many named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir–Simpson scale) will form during a season and/or how many tropical cyclones will affect a particular country. These agencies include the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Consortium of University College London, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. Some of these forecasts also take into consideration what happened in previous seasons and the state of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). On average, an Atlantic hurricane season between 1981 and 2010 contained twelve tropical storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of between 66 and 103 units.[2]

Pre-season outlooksEdit

The first forecast for the year was released by TSR on December 11, 2018, which predicted a slightly below-average season in 2019, with a total of 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, due to the anticipated presence of El Niño conditions during the season.[3] On April 4, 2019, CSU released its forecast, predicting a near-average season of 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.[4] On April 5, TSR released an updated forecast that reiterated its earlier predictions.[5] North Carolina State University released their forecast on April 16, predicting slightly-above average activity with 13–16 named storms, 5–7 hurricanes and 2–3 major hurricanes.[6] On May 6, The Weather Company predicted a slightly-above average season, with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.[7] The UK Met Office released their forecast May 21, predicting 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy of 109 units.[8] On May 23, NOAA released their first prediction, calling for a near-normal season with 9–15 named systems, 4–8 hurricanes, and 2–4 major hurricanes.[9] On May 30, TSR released an updated forecast which increased the number of forecast hurricanes from 5 to 6.[10]

Mid-season outlooksEdit

On June 4, CSU updated their forecast to include 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes, including Subtropical Storm Andrea.[11] On June 11, University of Arizona (UA) predicted above-average activities: 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and Accumulated Cyclone Energy index of 150 units.[12]

Seasonal summaryEdit

Saffir–Simpson scale 

For a record fifth consecutive year, activity began before the official start of the season when Subtropical Storm Andrea formed on May 20.

The Accumulated Cyclone Energy index for the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, as of Andrea's final advisory, is 0.245 units.[nb 1]

SystemsEdit

Subtropical Storm AndreaEdit

Subtropical storm (SSHWS)
DurationMay 20 – May 21
Peak intensity40 mph (65 km/h) (1-min)  1006 mbar (hPa)

On May 17, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began forecasting the formation of an area of low pressure south of Bermuda, which had the potential to later develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone.[13] On the following day, a large and elongated area of clouds and thunderstorms developed well to the east of the Bahamas.[14] The disturbance gradually organized over the next two days as it moved westward and then northward, though it still lacked a well-defined circulation. However, an Air Force Reconnaissance flight late on May 20 revealed that the storm had a well-defined center with winds reaching gale force, due to being involved with an upper-level low to its west, leading to the classification of the system as Subtropical Storm Andrea at 22:30 UTC that day.[15] Soon afterward, Andrea reached its peak intensity.[16] The nascent storm did not last very long, as the storm encountered dry air from the south and southerly wind shear. These hostile conditions caused Andrea's convection to dissipate, and the storm degenerated into a remnant low a day later.[17][18]

Storm namesEdit

The following list of names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2019. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2020. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2025 season. This is the same list used in the 2013 season, with the exception of the name Imelda, which replaced Ingrid.

  • Andrea
  • Barry (unused)
  • Chantal (unused)
  • Dorian (unused)
  • Erin (unused)
  • Fernand (unused)
  • Gabrielle (unused)
  • Humberto (unused)
  • Imelda (unused)
  • Jerry (unused)
  • Karen (unused)
  • Lorenzo (unused)
  • Melissa (unused)
  • Nestor (unused)
  • Olga (unused)
  • Pablo (unused)
  • Rebekah (unused)
  • Sebastien (unused)
  • Tanya (unused)
  • Van (unused)
  • Wendy (unused)

Season effectsEdit

This is a table of all the storms that have formed in the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. It includes their duration, names, landfall(s), denoted in parentheses, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a tropical wave, or a low, and all the damage figures are in USD. Potential tropical cyclones are not included in this table.

2019 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season statistics
Storm
name
Dates active Storm category

at peak intensity

Max 1-min
wind
mph (km/h)
Min.
press.
(mbar)
Areas affected Damage
(USD)
Deaths Refs


Andrea May 20 – 21 Subtropical storm 40 (65) 1006 Bermuda None None
Season Aggregates
1 systems May 20 – Season ongoing   40 (65) 1006 None None  

See alsoEdit

NotesEdit

  1. ^ The totals represent the sum of the squares for every (sub)tropical storm's intensity of over 33 knots (38 mph, 61 km/h), divided by 10,000. Calculations are provided at Talk:2019 Atlantic hurricane season/ACE calcs.

ReferencesEdit

  1. ^ Klotzbach, Philip [@philklotzbach] (May 20, 2019). "The Atlantic has now had named storms form prior to 1 June in five consecutive years: 2015–2019. This breaks the old record of named storm formations prior to 1 June in four consecutive years set in 1951–1954" (Tweet). Retrieved May 20, 2019 – via Twitter.
  2. ^ a b "Background Information: The North Atlantic Hurricane Season". Climate Prediction Center. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. August 9, 2012. Retrieved December 13, 2013.
  3. ^ a b Mark Saunders; Adam Lea (December 11, 2018). "Extended Range Forecast for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2019" (PDF). London, United Kingdom: Tropical Storm Risk.
  4. ^ a b "2019 Hurricane Season Expected to Be Near Average, Colorado State University Outlook Says". The Weather Channel. Retrieved April 4, 2019.
  5. ^ a b Mark Saunders; Adam Lea (April 5, 2019). "April Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2019" (PDF). London, United Kingdom: Tropical Storm Risk.
  6. ^ a b Tracey Peake (April 16, 2019). "NC State Researchers Predict Normal 2019 Hurricane Season for East Coast". Raleigh, North Carolina: NC State University.
  7. ^ a b Jonathan Erdman; Brian Donegan (May 6, 2019). "2019 Hurricane Season Expected to be Slightly Above Average But Less Active Than Last Year". The Weather Company. Retrieved May 7, 2019.
  8. ^ a b "North Atlantic tropical storm seasonal forecast 2019". Met Office. May 21, 2019. Retrieved May 23, 2019.
  9. ^ a b Lauren Gaches (May 23, 2019). "NOAA predicts near-normal 2019 Atlantic hurricane season". NOAA. Retrieved May 23, 2019.
  10. ^ a b Mark Saunders; Adam Lea (May 30, 2019). "Pre-Season Forecast for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2019" (PDF). London, United Kingdom: Tropical Storm Risk. Retrieved June 3, 2019.
  11. ^ a b "2019 Hurricane Season Expected to Be Near Average, Colorado State University Outlook Says". The Weather Channel. Retrieved 2019-06-05.
  12. ^ a b "University of Arizona (UA) Forecasts an Above-Average Hurricane Season" (PDF). University of Arizona. Retrieved 2019-06-12.
  13. ^ Eric S. Blake (May 17, 2019). "Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 20, 2019.
  14. ^ Stacy R. Stewart (May 18, 2019). "Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 20, 2019.
  15. ^ John P. Cangialosi (May 20, 2019). "Subtropical Storm Andrea Special Discussion Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 20, 2019.
  16. ^ Stacy R. Stewart (May 20, 2019). "Subtropical Storm Andrea Public Advisory Number 3". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 20, 2019.
  17. ^ Stacy Stewart (May 21, 2019). "Subtropical Storm Andrea Discussion Number 3". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 22, 2019.
  18. ^ Richard Pasch (May 21, 2019). "Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea Discussion Number 5". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 21, 2019.

External linksEdit