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The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season is an ongoing event in the annual formation of tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere. The season officially began on June 1, 2019, and will end on November 30, 2019. These dates historically describe the period each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin and are adopted by convention. However, tropical cyclogenesis is possible at any time of the year, as demonstrated by the formation of Subtropical Storm Andrea on May 20, marking the record fifth year in a row where a tropical or subtropical cyclone developed before the official start of the season, breaking the previous record of four years set in 1951–1954.[1] This was also the second year in a row in which no storms formed during the month of June. The season is now the second slowest-starting Atlantic hurricane season of the 21st century, as the third named storm has yet to form; the previous second latest formation date was Tropical Storm Chantal of 2001, which formed on August 14. The slowest-starting Atlantic hurricane season of the 21st century is the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.

2019 Atlantic hurricane season
2019 Atlantic hurricane season summary map.png
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formedMay 20, 2019 (2019-05-20)
Last system dissipatedSeason ongoing
Strongest storm
NameBarry
 • Maximum winds75 mph (120 km/h)
(1-minute sustained)
 • Lowest pressure991 mbar (hPa; 29.26 inHg)
Seasonal statistics
Total depressions3
Total storms2
Hurricanes1
Major hurricanes
(Cat. 3+)
0
Total fatalities1 total
Total damage> $600 million (2019 USD)
Related articles
Atlantic hurricane seasons
2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021

Contents

Seasonal forecastsEdit

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2019 season
Source Date Named
storms
Hurricanes Major
hurricanes
Average (1981–2010)[2] 12.1 6.4 2.7
Record high activity 28 15 7
Record low activity 4 2 0
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
TSR[3] December 11, 2018 12 5 2
CSU[4] April 4, 2019 13 5 2
TSR[5] April 5, 2019 12 5 2
NCSU[6] April 16, 2019 13–16 5–7 2–3
TWC[7] May 6, 2019 14 7 3
UKMO[8] May 21, 2019 13* 7* 3*
NOAA[9] May 23, 2019 9–15 4–8 2–4
TSR[10] May 30, 2019 12 6 2
CSU[11] June 4, 2019 14 6 2
UA[12] June 11, 2019 16 8 3
TSR[13] July 4, 2019 12 6 2
CSU[14] July 9, 2019 14 6 2
CSU[15] August 5, 2019 14 7 2
TSR[16] August 6, 2019 13 6 2
NOAA[17] August 8, 2019 10–17 5–9 2–4
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Actual activity
2 1 0
* June–November only.
† Most recent of several such occurrences. (See all)

Ahead of and during the season, several national meteorological services and scientific agencies forecast how many named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir–Simpson scale) will form during a season and/or how many tropical cyclones will affect a particular country. These agencies include the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Consortium of University College London, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. Some of these forecasts also take into consideration what happened in previous seasons and the state of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). On average, an Atlantic hurricane season between 1981 and 2010 contained twelve tropical storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, with an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of between 66 and 103 units.[2]

Pre-season outlooksEdit

The first forecast for the year was released by TSR on December 11, 2018, which predicted a slightly below-average season in 2019, with a total of 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, due to the anticipated presence of El Niño conditions during the season.[3] On April 4, 2019, CSU released its forecast, predicting a near-average season of 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.[4] On April 5, TSR released an updated forecast that reiterated its earlier predictions.[5] North Carolina State University released their forecast on April 16, predicting slightly-above average activity with 13–16 named storms, 5–7 hurricanes and 2–3 major hurricanes.[6] On May 6, the Weather Company predicted a slightly-above average season, with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.[7] The UK Met Office released their forecast May 21, predicting 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes and an accumulated cyclone energy of 109 units.[8] On May 23, NOAA released their first prediction, calling for a near-normal season with 9–15 named systems, 4–8 hurricanes, and 2–4 major hurricanes.[9] On May 30, TSR released an updated forecast which increased the number of forecast hurricanes from 5 to 6.[10]

Mid-season outlooksEdit

On June 4, CSU updated their forecast to include 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes, including Subtropical Storm Andrea.[11] On June 11, University of Arizona (UA) predicted above-average activities: 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and accumulated cyclone energy index of 150 units.[12] On July 4, the TSR released their first mid-season outlook, still retaining their numbers from the previous forecast.[13] On July 9, CSU released their second mid-season outlook with the same remaining numbers from their previous forecast.[14] On August 5, the CSU released their third mid-season outlook, still retaining the same numbers from their previous forecast except the slight increase of the number of hurricanes.[15] On August 6, the TSR released their second and final mid-season outlook, with the only changes of increasing the number of named storms from 12 to 13.[16] On August 8, NOAA released their second prediction with increasing the chances for 10–17 named storms, 5–9 hurricanes, and 2–4 major hurricanes.[17]

Seasonal summaryEdit

Hurricane Barry (2019)Saffir–Simpson scale 

For a record fifth consecutive year, activity began before the official start of the season when Subtropical Storm Andrea formed on May 20. No storms formed in the month of June, but activity resumed in July when Hurricane Barry formed. Tropical Depression Three-L formed soon afterwards. After the dissipation of Three-L less than 24 hours later, the activity has again suppressed. The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season is now the second latest-starting season of the 21st century.

The accumulated cyclone energy index for the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, as of 15:00 UTC July 14, is 3.315 units.[nb 1]

SystemsEdit

Subtropical Storm AndreaEdit

Subtropical storm (SSHWS)
DurationMay 20 – May 21
Peak intensity40 mph (65 km/h) (1-min)  1006 mbar (hPa)

On May 17, 2019, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began forecasting the formation of an area of low pressure south of Bermuda, which had the potential to later develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone.[18] On the following day, a large and elongated area of clouds and thunderstorms developed well to the east of the Bahamas.[19] The disturbance gradually organized over the next two days as it moved westward and then northward, though it still lacked a well-defined circulation. However, an Air Force reconnaissance flight late on May 20 revealed that the storm had a well-defined center with winds reaching gale force, due to being involved with an upper-level low to its west, leading to the classification of the system as Subtropical Storm Andrea at 22:30 UTC that day.[20] Soon afterward, Andrea reached its peak intensity.[21] The nascent storm did not last very long, as the storm encountered dry air from the south, as well as southerly wind shear. These hostile conditions caused Andrea's convection to dissipate, and the storm degenerated into a remnant low early on the next day.[22][23]

Hurricane BarryEdit

Category 1 hurricane (SSHWS)
DurationJuly 11 – July 15
Peak intensity75 mph (120 km/h) (1-min)  991 mbar (hPa)

A trough of low pressure in the Midwest began moving south, towards the Gulf of Mexico.[24] On July 6, the NHC began monitoring it over the Tennessee Valley and forecast it to move southwards, emerge into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, and potentially develop into a tropical cyclone within several days.[25][26][27] Over the next few days, the trough drifted southward, due to the steering influence of a ridge of high pressure, and the trough developed a broad area of low pressure on July 9, shortly before the system entered the Gulf of Mexico from the Florida big bend.[28] The low-pressure system, while still lacking a well-defined center of circulation, became a little better defined on the following day. As the system had a high potential of producing tropical storm conditions and storm surge along the coast of Louisiana within the next couple of days, the NHC initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two at 15:00 UTC on July 10.[29] The system subsequently organized into a tropical storm at 15:00 UTC on July 11.[30] The system slowly moved westward, affecting the U.S. Gulf Coast. The system finally strengthened into a hurricane at 15:00 UTC on July 13 making it the first of the season.[31] However, three hours later, at 18:00 UTC, wind shear began to increase, causing the system to begin weakening. Around that time, Barry made landfall on Intracoastal City, Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane, before weakening to tropical storm status afterward,[31][32] causing extensive damage to Lafayette, Lake Charles, and Baton Rouge. Barry gradually weakened while slowly moving inland, weakening into a tropical depression at 21:00 UTC on July 14.[33] At 21:00 UTC on July 15, Barry weakened into a remnant low over northern Arkansas.[34] During the next several days, Barry's remnant moved eastward while gradually weakening,[35] before being absorbed into another frontal system off the coast of New Jersey on July 19.[36]

Barry caused one fatality, with a man killed by a rip current off the coast of the Florida Panhandle on July 15.[37] Damage from the storm is currently at > $600 million (2019 USD).[38]

Tropical Depression ThreeEdit

Tropical depression (SSHWS)
DurationJuly 22 – July 23
Peak intensity35 mph (55 km/h) (1-min)  1013 mbar (hPa)

Early on July 21, the NHC began monitoring a tropical wave located about 300 miles east of the Bahamas for potential tropical cyclone development.[39] Despite the disturbance having a low chance of tropical cyclone formation, rapid organization ensued on the following day, with a closed low-level circulation developing, as deep convection increased in association with the small low-pressure system. Subsequently, at 21:00 UTC on July 22, the NHC classified the system as Tropical Depression Three.[40] However, deep convection associated with the tropical depression soon dissipated, and although convection redeveloped early on July 23, the cyclone remained disorganized.[41] An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigating the system that morning found no evidence of a surface circulation, and at 15:00 UTC that day, the tropical depression degenerated into a trough of low pressure while located off the east coast of Florida.[42] The storm's remnants continued to move northward, before being absorbed by a frontal system several hours later, early on the next day. The impacts were very minimal, with only 1-3 inches of rainfall in South Florida and The Bahamas.[43]

Storm namesEdit

The following list of names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2019. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2020. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2025 season. This is the same list used in the 2013 season, with the exception of the name Imelda, which replaced Ingrid.

  • Andrea
  • Barry
  • Chantal (unused)
  • Dorian (unused)
  • Erin (unused)
  • Fernand (unused)
  • Gabrielle (unused)
  • Humberto (unused)
  • Imelda (unused)
  • Jerry (unused)
  • Karen (unused)
  • Lorenzo (unused)
  • Melissa (unused)
  • Nestor (unused)
  • Olga (unused)
  • Pablo (unused)
  • Rebekah (unused)
  • Sebastien (unused)
  • Tanya (unused)
  • Van (unused)
  • Wendy (unused)

Season effectsEdit

This is a table of all the storms that have formed in the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. It includes their duration, names, landfall(s), denoted in parentheses, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a tropical wave, or a low, and all the damage figures are in USD. Potential tropical cyclones are not included in this table.

2019 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season statistics
Storm
name
Dates active Storm category

at peak intensity

Max 1-min
wind
mph (km/h)
Min.
press.
(mbar)
Areas affected Damage
(USD)
Deaths Refs


Andrea May 20 – 21 Subtropical storm 40 (65) 1006 Bermuda None None
Barry July 11 – 15 Category 1 hurricane 75 (120) 991 Eastern United States, Louisiana, Great Lakes region >$600 million 0 (1) [37][38]
Three July 22 – 23 Tropical depression 35 (55) 1013 Bahamas, Florida Minimal None
Season Aggregates
3 systems May 20 –
Season ongoing
  75 (120) 991 >$600 million 0 (1)  

See alsoEdit

NotesEdit

  1. ^ The totals represent the sum of the squares for every (sub)tropical storm's intensity of over 33 knots (38 mph, 61 km/h), divided by 10,000. Calculations are provided at Talk:2019 Atlantic hurricane season/ACE calcs.

ReferencesEdit

  1. ^ Klotzbach, Philip [@philklotzbach] (May 20, 2019). "The Atlantic has now had named storms form prior to 1 June in five consecutive years: 2015–2019. This breaks the old record of named storm formations prior to 1 June in four consecutive years set in 1951–1954" (Tweet). Retrieved May 20, 2019 – via Twitter.
  2. ^ a b "Background Information: The North Atlantic Hurricane Season". Climate Prediction Center. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. August 9, 2012. Retrieved December 13, 2013.
  3. ^ a b Mark Saunders; Adam Lea (December 11, 2018). "Extended Range Forecast for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2019" (PDF). London, United Kingdom: Tropical Storm Risk.
  4. ^ a b "2019 Hurricane Season Expected to Be Near Average, Colorado State University Outlook Says". The Weather Channel. Retrieved April 4, 2019.
  5. ^ a b Mark Saunders; Adam Lea (April 5, 2019). "April Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2019" (PDF). London, United Kingdom: Tropical Storm Risk.
  6. ^ a b Tracey Peake (April 16, 2019). "NC State Researchers Predict Normal 2019 Hurricane Season for East Coast". Raleigh, North Carolina: NC State University.
  7. ^ a b Jonathan Erdman; Brian Donegan (May 6, 2019). "2019 Hurricane Season Expected to be Slightly Above Average But Less Active Than Last Year". The Weather Company. Retrieved May 7, 2019.
  8. ^ a b "North Atlantic tropical storm seasonal forecast 2019". Met Office. May 21, 2019. Retrieved May 23, 2019.
  9. ^ a b Lauren Gaches (May 23, 2019). "NOAA predicts near-normal 2019 Atlantic hurricane season". NOAA. Retrieved May 23, 2019.
  10. ^ a b Mark Saunders; Adam Lea (May 30, 2019). "Pre-Season Forecast for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2019" (PDF). London, United Kingdom: Tropical Storm Risk. Retrieved June 3, 2019.
  11. ^ a b "2019 Hurricane Season Expected to Be Near Average, Colorado State University Outlook Says". The Weather Channel. Retrieved June 5, 2019.
  12. ^ a b "University of Arizona (UA) Forecasts an Above-Average Hurricane Season" (PDF). University of Arizona. Retrieved June 12, 2019.
  13. ^ a b Mark Saunders; Adam Lea (July 4, 2019). "July Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2019" (PDF). London, United Kingdom: Tropical Storm Risk.
  14. ^ a b "ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2019" (PDF). Retrieved July 9, 2019.
  15. ^ a b "ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2019" (PDF). Retrieved August 5, 2019.
  16. ^ a b Mark Saunders; Adam Lea (August 6, 2019). "August Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2019" (PDF). London, United Kingdom: Tropical Storm Risk.
  17. ^ a b "NOAA TO ISSUE UPDATED 2019 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK". Retrieved August 8, 2019.
  18. ^ Eric S. Blake (May 17, 2019). "Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 20, 2019.
  19. ^ Stacy R. Stewart (May 18, 2019). "Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 20, 2019.
  20. ^ John P. Cangialosi (May 20, 2019). "Subtropical Storm Andrea Special Discussion Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 20, 2019.
  21. ^ Stacy R. Stewart (May 20, 2019). "Subtropical Storm Andrea Public Advisory Number 3". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 20, 2019.
  22. ^ Stacy Stewart (May 21, 2019). "Subtropical Storm Andrea Discussion Number 3". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 22, 2019.
  23. ^ Richard Pasch (May 21, 2019). "Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea Discussion Number 5". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  24. ^ weather.com meteorologists. "Potential Tropical Storm Barry to Impact Gulf Coast With Severe Flooding, Surge, Wind Threats; Hurricane Watch Issued". The Weather Channel. Web. Archived from the original on July 11, 2019. Retrieved July 11, 2019. Computer forecast models for several days have shown that an upper-level disturbance meteorologists call a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) originated in the Midwest last week, then moved from the Deep South into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
  25. ^ Eric S. Blake (July 6, 2019). "Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 10, 2019.
  26. ^ weather.com meteorologists (July 11, 2019). "Potential Tropical Storm Barry to Impact Gulf Coast With Severe Flooding, Surge, Wind Threats; Hurricane Watch Issued". The Weather Channel. Web. Retrieved July 11, 2019. Computer forecast models for several days have shown that an upper-level disturbance meteorologists call a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) originated in the Midwest last week, then moved from the Deep South into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
  27. ^ Eric S. Blake (July 6, 2019). "Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 10, 2019.
  28. ^ Stacy R. Stewart (July 9, 2019). "Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 10, 2019.
  29. ^ Stacy R. Stewart (July 10, 2019). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 1". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 10, 2019.
  30. ^ Jack Beven (July 11, 2019). Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 5 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 11, 2019.
  31. ^ a b Beven, Jack (July 13, 2019). Hurricane Barry Discussion Number 13 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 13, 2019.
  32. ^ Beven, Jack (July 13, 2019). Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 13A (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 14, 2019.
  33. ^ Stewart, Stacy R. (July 14, 2019). Tropical Depression Barry Discussion Number 18 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 15, 2019.
  34. ^ Burke, Patrick; Gallina, Gregg (July 15, 2019). Post-Tropical Cyclone Barry Advisory Number 22. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov (Report). Weather Prediction Center. Retrieved July 15, 2019.
  35. ^ Brann (July 17, 2019). Post-Tropical Cyclone Barry Advisory Number 30 (Report). Weather Prediction Center. Retrieved July 18, 2019.
  36. ^ "WPC surface analysis valid for 07/19/2019 at 06 UTC". NOAA's National Weather Service. July 19, 2019. Retrieved July 19, 2019.
  37. ^ a b Adams, Char (July 15, 2019). "Good Samaritans Form Human Chain to Rescue Swimmers from Rip Current in Florida". PEOPLE.com. Retrieved July 18, 2019.
  38. ^ a b Global Catastrophe Recap: July 2019 (PDF) (Report). AON. August 1, 2019. Retrieved August 16, 2019.
  39. ^ Stacy R. Stewart (July 21, 2019). "Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 22, 2019.
  40. ^ Richard J. Pasch (July 22, 2019). "Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 1". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 22, 2019.
  41. ^ Stacy R. Stewart (July 23, 2019). "Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 3". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 25, 2019.
  42. ^ Daniel P. Brown (July 23, 2019). "Remnants of Three Discussion Number 4". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 23, 2019.
  43. ^ Richard J. Pasch (July 22, 2019). "Tropical Depression THREE". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 18, 2019.

External linksEdit