2016 United States presidential election in Indiana

The 2016 United States presidential election in Indiana was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Indiana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her running mate, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine.

2016 United States presidential election in Indiana

← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout58%[citation needed]
  Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Party Republican Democratic
Home state New York New York
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,557,286 1,033,126
Percentage 56.47% 37.46%

Indiana Presidential Election Results 2016.svg
County Results

President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county.

On May 3, 2016, in the presidential primaries, voters expressed their preferences for the Democratic and Republican parties' respective nominees for president.

Donald Trump won the election in Indiana with 56.47% of the vote. Hillary Clinton received 37.46% of the vote.[1] Indiana is the home state of Trump's running mate, Mike Pence, which was believed to have provided important assistance to the Trump campaign in what already would have been a Republican-leaning state.

PredictionsEdit

Source Ranking As of
CNN[2] Safe R November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[3] Likely R November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[4] Safe R November 7, 2016
NBC[5] Lean R November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[6] Likely R November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[7] Safe R November 7, 2016

ResultsEdit

By congressional districtEdit

Trump won 7 of 9 congressional districts.[8]

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 41% 54% Pete Visclosky
2nd 59% 36% Jackie Walorski
3rd 65% 30% Marlin Stutzman
4th 64% 30% Todd Rokita
5th 53% 41% Susan Brooks
6th 68% 27% Luke Messer
7th 36% 58% André Carson
8th 64% 31% Larry Bucshon
9th 61% 34% Todd Young

By countyEdit

Hillary Rodham Clinton

Democratic

Donald John Trump

Republican

Various candidates

Other parties

Total
County % # % # % # #
Adams 21.43% 2,805 73.71% 9,648 4.87% 637 13,090
Allen 37.64% 55,382 57.04% 83,930 5.32% 7,825 147,137
Bartholomew 30.29% 9,841 63.53% 20,640 6.18% 2,009 32,490
Benton 23.46% 860 70.35% 2,579 6.19% 227 3,666
Blackford 25.69% 1,243 69.23% 3,350 5.08% 246 4,839
Boone 31.64% 10,181 61.08% 19,654 7.28% 2,343 32,178
Brown 31.69% 2,518 63.13% 5,016 5.17% 411 7,945
Carroll 21.89% 1,892 72.58% 6,273 5.53% 478 8,643
Cass 26.46% 3,759 68.27% 9,701 5.27% 749 14,209
Clark 36.77% 18,808 58.72% 30,035 4.50% 2,304 51,147
Clay 20.44% 2,306 75.62% 8,531 3.94% 445 11,282
Clinton 23.62% 2,819 71.47% 8,531 4.91% 586 11,936
Crawford 28.80% 1,323 65.64% 3,015 5.55% 255 4,593
Daviess 16.72% 1,800 79.36% 8,545 3.93% 423 10,768
Dearborn 20.36% 4,883 75.51% 18,113 4.13% 991 23,987
Decatur 19.06% 2,121 76.30% 8,490 4.64% 516 11,127
DeKalb 23.32% 3,942 71.32% 12,054 5.36% 906 16,902
Delaware 40.23% 18,153 53.77% 24,263 6.0% 2,707 45,123
Dubois 26.97% 5,389 66.88% 13,365 6.15% 1,230 19,984
Elkhart 31.60% 20,740 63.79% 41,867 4.61% 3,023 65,630
Fayette 23.63% 2,252 71.76% 6,839 4.61% 439 9,530
Floyd 37.26% 13,945 57.27% 21,432 5.47% 2,048 37,425
Fountain 19.70% 1,476 75.57% 5,662 4.73% 354 7,492
Franklin 17.88% 1,969 78.72% 8,669 3.41% 375 11,013
Fulton 23.41% 1,960 71.77% 6,010 4.82% 404 8,374
Gibson 24.03% 3,721 71.56% 11,081 4.40% 682 15,484
Grant 27.69% 7,010 67.19% 17,008 5.11% 1,294 25,312
Greene 21.22% 2,929 74.47% 10,277 4.31% 595 13,801
Hamilton 37.12% 57,263 56.66% 87,404 6.22% 9,589 154,256
Hancock 24.61% 8,904 69.30% 25,074 6.09% 2,203 36,181
Harrison 25.77% 4,783 69.74% 12,943 4.48% 832 18,558
Hendricks 29.91% 22,600 63.97% 48,337 6.12% 4,622 75,559
Henry 25.42% 5,124 68.94% 13,895 5.64% 1,136 20,155
Howard 30.44% 11,215 64.26% 23,675 5.30% 1,953 36,843
Huntington 21.85% 3,506 72.61% 11,649 5.54% 888 16,043
Jackson 21.87% 3,843 73.17% 12,859 4.96% 871 17,573
Jasper 24.88% 3,329 70.13% 9,382 4.99% 667 13,378
Jay 23.65% 1,889 71.34% 5,697 5.01% 400 7,986
Jefferson 31.94% 4,326 63.10% 8,546 4.96% 672 13,544
Jennings 21.20% 2,364 73.76% 8,224 5.04% 562 11,150
Johnson 26.04% 17,318 68.35% 45,456 5.60% 3,726 66,500
Knox 24.31% 3,772 71.39% 11,077 4.30% 667 15,516
Kosciusko 19.68% 6,313 74.60% 23,935 5.72% 1,836 32,084
LaGrange 21.74% 2,080 73.44% 7,025 4.82% 461 9,566
Lake 58.12% 116,935 37.59% 75,625 4.30% 8,645 201,205
LaPorte 43.80% 19,798 50.19% 22,687 6.01% 2,718 45,203
Lawrence 21.98% 4,210 73.28% 14,035 4.74% 907 19,152
Madison 34.49% 18,595 60.06% 32,376 5.45% 2,938 53,909
Marion 58.75% 212,899 35.97% 130,360 5.27% 19,113 362,372
Marshall 26.53% 4,798 67.96% 12,288 5.51% 996 18,082
Martin 18.32% 881 76.88% 3,697 4.80% 231 4,809
Miami 20.52% 2,766 73.99% 9,975 5.50% 741 13,482
Monroe 58.53% 34,216 35.23% 20,592 6.24% 3,646 58,454
Montgomery 22.18% 3,362 72.97% 11,059 4.85% 735 15,156
Morgan 19.31% 6,040 75.68% 23,674 5.01% 1,566 31,280
Newton 24.23% 1,404 70.35% 4,077 5.42% 314 5,795
Noble 23.11% 3,904 72.22% 12,198 4.67% 788 16,890
Ohio 23.49% 686 72.51% 2,118 4.01% 117 2,921
Orange 25.00% 2,048 70.84% 5,803 4.16% 341 8,192
Owen 22.74% 1,946 71.91% 6,153 5.35% 458 8,557
Parke 21.89% 1,441 73.88% 4,863 4.22% 278 6,582
Perry 38.01% 3,062 56.56% 4,556 5.43% 437 8,055
Pike 21.70% 1,297 73.58% 4,398 4.72% 282 5,977
Porter 43.63% 33,676 50.31% 38,832 6.07% 4,682 77,190
Posey 28.24% 3,521 67.41% 8,404 4.35% 542 12,467
Pulaski 24.31% 1,327 70.60% 3,854 5.09% 278 5,459
Putnam 22.81% 3,356 72.29% 10,637 4.91% 722 14,715
Randolph 23.39% 2,446 71.88% 7,517 4.73% 495 10,458
Ripley 19.29% 2,471 76.55% 9,806 4.16% 533 12,810
Rush 21.14% 1,525 73.36% 5,292 5.50% 397 7,214
Scott 29.03% 2,642 66.74% 6,074 4.23% 385 9,101
Shelby 23.60% 4,247 70.68% 12,718 5.72% 1,029 17,994
Spencer 28.67% 2,861 65.86% 6,572 5.47% 546 9,979
St. Joseph 47.48% 52,252 47.27% 52,021 5.26% 5,787 110,060
Starke 26.98% 2,489 69.01% 6,367 4.01% 370 9,226
Steuben 25.70% 3,744 69.57% 10,133 4.73% 689 14,566
Sullivan 24.69% 2,113 71.71% 6,138 3.60% 308 8,559
Switzerland 25.14% 930 69.15% 2,558 5.70% 211 3,699
Tippecanoe 43.64% 27,282 49.22% 30,768 7.14% 4,465 62,515
Tipton 21.13% 1,587 74.42% 5,589 4.45% 334 7,510
Union 21.73% 715 74.29% 2,445 3.98% 131 3,291
Vanderburgh 39.35% 28,530 55.85% 40,496 4.80% 3,481 72,507
Vermillion 29.99% 2,081 65.04% 4,513 4.97% 345 6,939
Vigo 40.01% 15,931 55.09% 21,937 4.90% 1,950 39,818
Wabash 22.41% 3,018 72.92% 9,821 4.67% 629 13,468
Warren 21.35% 839 73.74% 2,898 4.91% 193 3,930
Warrick 30.71% 9,086 64.59% 19,113 4.70% 1,390 29,589
Washington 23.16% 2,636 72.12% 8,209 4.72% 537 11,382
Wayne 32.53% 8,322 62.66% 16,028 4.80% 1,229 25,579
Wells 19.61% 2,586 75.88% 10,005 4.51% 594 13,185
White 25.76% 2,590 68.57% 6,893 5.67% 570 10,053
Whitley 21.63% 3,379 72.70% 11,358 5.67% 886 15,623

Counties that swung from Democratic to RepublicanEdit

Primary electionsEdit

Democratic primaryEdit

 
County results of the Indiana Democratic presidential primary, 2016.
  Bernie Sanders
  Hillary Clinton

Two candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:

Indiana Democratic primary, May 3, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Bernie Sanders 335,074 52.46% 44 0 44
Hillary Clinton 303,705 47.54% 39 7 46
Uncommitted N/A 0 2 2
Total 638,779 100% 83 9 92
Source: The Green Papers - Official Primary Results

Republican primaryEdit

 
  Donald Trump
  Ted Cruz

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:

Indiana Republican primary, May 3, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 591,514 53.26% 57 0 57
Ted Cruz 406,783 36.63% 0 0 0
John Kasich 84,111 7.57% 0 0 0
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 8,914 0.80% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 6,508 0.59% 0 0 0
Marco Rubio (withdrawn) 5,175 0.47% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 4,306 0.39% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 1,738 0.16% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 1,494 0.13% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 1,110,543 100.00% 57 0 57
Source: The Green Papers

PollingEdit

Donald Trump won every pre-election poll conducted by at least 5 points, and often by double digits. The average of the last 3 polls showed Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton 49% to 38%. [9]. Donald Trump had won almost all the undecided vote, as shown by the results where he won 56% to 37%.

AnalysisEdit

 
Indiana Governor Mike Pence ran as Donald Trump's running-mate

Of the 2,757,965 votes cast, Donald Trump won 1,557,286 votes, Hillary Clinton won 1,033,126 votes and Gary Johnson won 133,993 votes.[1]

Indiana has historically been the most conservative state in the Rust Belt. It went Democratic for Barack Obama in 2008—the first time it had done so since 1964, and only the fourth time since 1912. However, it has shifted back to being solidly Republican. Republican nominee Donald Trump carried the state by 19 points over Democrat Hillary Clinton,[10] thus gaining all of Indiana's 11 electoral votes.

Donald Trump's victory in the Hoosier State can be attributed to several factors. For one, Donald Trump had selected Indiana governor Mike Pence as his running mate, effectively eliminating any chance that Clinton could repeat Obama's surprise upset win in the state over John McCain eight years prior. Also, the state skews whiter and more Evangelical Protestant than the rest of the Midwest and the Rust Belt overall, which is a better demographic make-up for Republicans; Trump won white born-agains and evangelicals by a margin of 75–22.[11]

Suburban communities in the "doughnut counties" surrounding Indianapolis lean heavily Republican, and bolstered the Trump-Pence ticket in the state. Many of these voters are both fiscally and socially conservative. Another GOP stronghold that benefited Trump was the northeast region around Fort Wayne, which is a mix of suburban, exurban and rural areas, and is home to some of the most socially conservative voters in the nation.

In Southern Indiana along the Ohio River, especially around Evansville in Vanderburgh County, the electorate is dominated by "Butternut Democrats:" socially conservative, working-class white voters who were Democrats for generations but have been trending Republican in reaction to the increased social liberalism of national Democrats.[12] Such voters turned out for Trump in full force, inspired by his economic populism and by Pence's social conservatism.

Trump also won in Vigo County, home to Terre Haute and a noted bellwether; it has voted for the winner of every presidential election all but twice since 1892.

Clinton, for her part, performed well in Indianapolis in Marion County and in Gary in Lake County, which has a large African American population and is considered part of the Chicago Metropolitan Area. Clinton won African Americans by a margin of 83–12. She also won St. Joseph and Monroe counties, home to the University of Notre Dame and Indiana University, respectively. Areas where Clinton improved on Obama's performance in 2012 were predominantly located in well-educated suburbs of Indianapolis and areas surrounding large universities, where several socially moderate Republicans chose not to vote for Trump out of discomfort for his controversial views on race and women.

See alsoEdit

ReferencesEdit

  1. ^ a b "2016 Presidential General Election Results".
  2. ^ Chalian, David (4 November 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
  3. ^ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. 7 November 2016. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
  4. ^ "2016 Predicted Electoral Map". Electoral-vote.com. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
  5. ^ Todd, Chuck (7 November 2016). "NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton". NBC News. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
  6. ^ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
  7. ^ Sabato, Larry (7 November 2016). "The Crystal Ball's 2016 Electoral College ratings". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved 12 February 2019.
  8. ^ Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2016, 2012, and 2008 Retrieved 1 March 2020.
  9. ^ https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/in/indiana_trump_vs_clinton-5878.html#polls
  10. ^ "Indiana Election Results 2016". New York Times. Retrieved 2016-11-12.
  11. ^ "2016 election results: Indiana Exit polls". CNN. Retrieved 2016-11-12.
  12. ^ Cohen, Micah (2012-10-19). "After Brief Role as Battleground, Indiana Exits, Stage Right". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2016-11-12.

External linksEdit