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2016 North Carolina Democratic primary

The 2016 North Carolina Democratic primary took place on March 15 in the U.S. state of North Carolina as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

North Carolina Democratic primary, 2016

← 2008 March 15, 2016 2020 →
  Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg Bernie Sanders September 2015 cropped.jpg
Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Home state New York Vermont
Delegate count 60 47
Popular vote 622,915 467,018
Percentage 54.50% 40.86%

North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary Election Results by County, 2016.svg
Election results by county.
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders

On the same day, the Democratic Party held primaries in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio, while the Republican Party held primaries in the same five states, including their own North Carolina primary, plus the Northern Mariana Islands.

Contents

Opinion pollingEdit

Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Primary results March 15, 2016 Hillary Clinton
54.5%
Bernie Sanders
40.9%
Others / Uncommitted
4.6%
Public Policy Polling[1]

Margin of error: ± 3.6%
Sample size: 747

March 11–13, 2016 Hillary Clinton
56%
Bernie Sanders
37%
Others / Undecided
7%
High Point University/SurveyUSA[2]

Margin of error: ± 3.8%
Sample size: 669

March 9–10, 2016 Hillary Clinton
58%
Bernie Sanders
34%
Others / Undecided
8%
WRAL/SurveyUSA[3]

Margin of error: ± 3.8%
Sample size: 687

March 4–7, 2016 Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
34%
Others / Undecided
9%
Civitas[4]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 500

March 3-7, 2016 Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
28%
Others / Undecided
15%
Elon University[5]

Margin of error: ± 3.6%
Sample size: 728

February 15–17, 2016 Hillary Clinton
47%
Bernie Sanders
37%
Others / Undecided 16%
SurveyUSA[6]

Margin of error: ± 4.7%
Sample size: 449

February 14–16, 2016 Hillary Clinton
51%
Bernie Sanders
36%
No Preference 4%, Undecided 9%
Public Policy Polling[7]

Margin of error: ± 4.1
Sample size: 575

February 14–16, 2016 Hillary Clinton
52%
Bernie Sanders
35%
Others / Undecided
13%
High Point[8]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 478

January 30 – February 4, 2016 Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
29%
Martin O'Malley
1%
Not Sure 15%
Public Policy Polling[9]

Margin of error: ± 4.6%
Sample size: 461

January 18–19, 2016 Hillary Clinton
59%
Bernie Sanders
26%
Martin O'Malley
5%
Not Sure 10%
Civitas[10]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 500

January 13–16, 2016 Hillary Clinton
53%
Bernie Sanders
28%
Martin O'Malley
2%
Undecided 17%
Polls in 2015
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Public Policy Polling[11]

Margin of error: ± 2.8%
Sample size: 555

December 5–7, 2015 Hillary Clinton
60%
Bernie Sanders
21%
Martin O'Malley
10%
Not Sure 9%
Elon University[12]

Margin of error: ± 4.32%
Sample size: 514

October 29 – November 2, 2015 Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
24%
Martin O'Malley
3%
Other 2% Undecided/DK 13% Refused 0.5%
Public Policy Polling[13]

Margin of error: ± 4.8%
Sample size: 421

October 23–25, 2015 Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
24%
Martin O'Malley
5%
Lawrence Lessig
2%
Public Policy Polling[14]

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 605

September 24–27, 2015 Hillary Clinton
37%
Joe Biden
30%
Bernie
Sanders
17%
Jim Webb 3%, Lincoln Chafee 2%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Lawrence Lessig 0%, Not sure 10%
Elon University[15]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 427

September 17–21, 2015 Hillary Clinton
53.40%
Bernie Sanders
23.00%
Jim Webb
1.60%
Lincoln Chafee 0.70%, Lawrence Lessig 0.70%, Martin O'Malley 0.20%, Other 2.10%, Undecided/Don't know 17.10%, Refuse 1.20%
Public Policy Polling[16]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 477

August 12–16, 2015 Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
19%
Jim Webb
5%
Lincoln Chafee 2%, Martin O'Malley 2%, Lawrence Lessig 1%
Public Policy Polling[17]

Margin of error: ± 5.8%
Sample size: 286

July 2–6, 2015 Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
20%
Jim Webb
7%
Lincoln Chafee 4%, Martin O'Malley 4%, Someone else/Undecided 11%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 5.9%
Sample size: 274

May 28–31, 2015 Hillary Clinton
62%
Bernie Sanders
14%
Jim Webb
5%
Lincoln Chafee 4%, Martin O'Malley 4%, Someone else/Undecided 12%
Survey USA

Margin of error: ± 4.7%
Sample size: 442

April 22–27, 2015 Hillary Clinton
56%
Elizabeth Warren
11%
Joe Biden
8%
Martin O'Malley 3%, Bernie Sanders 3%, Jim Webb 3%, Other/Undecided 16%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 5.1%
Sample size: 370

April 2–5, 2015 Hillary Clinton
53%
Joe Biden
13%
Elizabeth Warren
11%
Martin O'Malley 5%, Jim Webb 3%, Bernie Sanders 2%, Someone else/Undecided 12%
Civitas Institute

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 400

March 20–23, 2015 Hillary Clinton
53%
Elizabeth Warren
19%
Joe Biden
9%
Bernie Sanders 5%, Martin O'Malley 2%, Other/Undecided 13%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 401

February 24–26, 2015 Hillary Clinton
56%
Elizabeth Warren
13%
Joe Biden
11%
Martin O'Malley 3%, Jim Webb 3%, Bernie Sanders 1%, Someone else/Undecided 12%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 385

January 29–31, 2015 Hillary Clinton
54%
Joe Biden
18%
Elizabeth Warren
12%
Bernie Sanders 3%, Martin O'Malley 2%, Jim Webb 2%, Someone else/Not sure 10%
Polls in 2014
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 381

December 4–7, 2014 Hillary Clinton
52%
Joe Biden
18%
Elizabeth Warren
7%
Bernie Sanders 5%, Andrew Cuomo 4%, Jim Webb 2%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Brian Schweitzer 0%, Someone else/Not sure 10%
Suffolk

Margin of error: ± ?%
Sample size: 254

August 16–19, 2014 Hillary Clinton
57.09%
Joe Biden
14.96%
Elizabeth Warren
9.06%
Martin O'Malley 2.76%, Andrew Cuomo 1.97%, Undecided 11.42%, Refused 2.76%
Civitas Institute

Margin of error: ± ?%
Sample size: 336

July 28–29, 2014 Hillary Clinton
40%
Elizabeth Warren
12%
Joe Biden
9%
Andrew Cuomo 3%, Bernie Sanders 2%, Howard Dean 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Amy Klobuchar 0%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Won't vote in Democratic primary 15%, Undecided 14%, Refused 3%, Other 0%

ResultsEdit

North Carolina Democratic primary, March 15, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 622,915 54.50% 60 8 68
Bernie Sanders 467,018 40.86% 47 2 49
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 12,122 1.06%
Rocky De La Fuente 3,376 0.30%
No preference 37,485 3.28%
Uncommitted N/A 3 3
Total 1,142,916 100% 107 13 120
Sources: The Green Papers, North Carolina State board of Elections,
North Carolina Democratic Party - Official Delegation for Pledged Delegates

Results by countyEdit

County[18] Clinton Votes Sanders Votes
Alamance 53.7% 7,374 41.3% 5,755
Alexander 45.8% 1,148 44.8% 1,123
Alleghany 44.2% 563 44.8% 571
Anson 66.1% 2,307 26.2% 914
Ashe 46.4% 1,219 45.9% 1,205
Avery 41.4% 326 53.9% 425
Beaufort 55.6% 2,934 34.9% 1,840
Bertie 69.5% 2,065 25.4% 756
Bladen 59.6% 3,442 26.4% 1,524
Brunswick 60.1% 7,192 35.5% 4,252
Buncombe 35.4% 17,604 62.1% 30,913
Burke 46.1% 3,511 45.4% 3,460
Cabarrus 51.7% 8,096 44.3% 6,931
Caldwell 47.0% 2,156 45.9% 2,108
Camden 54.2% 468 34.5% 298
Carteret 48.5% 2,946 44.4% 2,694
Caswell 59.8% 1,701 31.1% 885
Catawba 51.2% 5,310 44.0% 4,561
Chatham 55.0% 7,406 40.9% 5,510
Cherokee 43.9% 1,024 43.7% 1,021
Chowan 61.8% 974 29.8% 470
Clay 52.8% 487 38.5% 355
Cleveland 55.9% 4,880 35.6% 3,104
Columbus 56.3% 3,628 31.1% 2,002
Craven 58.1% 5,187 35.7% 3,184
Cumberland 63.9% 22,744 31.0% 11,052
Currituck 47.8% 780 43.5% 710
Dare 42.5% 2,003 48.9% 2,307
Davidson 50.3% 4,489 43.5% 3,878
Davie 54.0% 1,377 40.4% 1,031
Duplin 61.2% 3,036 29.2% 1,450
Durham 57.5% 35,845 41.0% 25,584
Edgecombe 70.8% 6,411 22.7% 2,058
Forsyth 58.0% 24,446 39.8% 16,779
Franklin 59.4% 4,951 34.3% 2,858
Gaston 54.1% 7,697 40.3% 5,738
Gates 61.7% 749 29.3% 356
Graham 44.3% 321 40.7% 295
Granville 58.8% 4,693 34.0% 2,715
Greene 58.7% 1,643 29.4% 822
Guilford 56.0% 37,880 41.7% 28,204
Halifax 66.7% 6,224 24.8% 2,313
Harnett 55.1% 4,655 36.8% 3,111
Haywood 44.5% 3,748 46.0% 3,873
Henderson 47.0% 4,811 50.1% 5,129
Hertford 67.5% 2,926 22.2% 961
Hoke 59.7% 3,528 31.1% 1,837
Hyde 48.0% 459 40.5% 388
Iredell 50.9% 5,888 43.2% 4,998
Jackson 38.1% 2,022 57.0% 3,021
Johnston 52.1% 7,992 40.5% 6,223
Jones 58.0% 910 32.0% 501
Lee 54.6% 3,224 38.1% 2,248
Lenoir 64.1% 4,731 26.4% 1,947
Lincoln 51.3% 2,812 41.8% 2,291
Macon 47.9% 1,548 44.2% 1,428
Madison 34.5% 1,201 58.7% 2,044
Martin 61.8% 2,469 27.4% 1,097
McDowell 40.9% 1,353 49.0% 1,622
Mecklenburg 60.3% 71,265 38.3% 45,224
Mitchell 40.4% 314 57.9% 450
Montgomery 54.9% 1,366 35.5% 885
Moore 58.8% 4,679 37.0% 2,948
Nash 65.8% 8,554 28.2% 3,664
New Hanover 48.4% 12,240 48.6% 12,276
Northampton 68.4% 3,195 22.9% 1,067
Onslow 54.2% 4,560 38.2% 3,213
Orange 48.4% 17,546 49.9% 18,096
Pamlico 53.0% 922 38.9% 676
Pasquotank 65.2% 2,471 29.8% 1,128
Pender 56.4% 2,880 36.8% 1,880
Perquimans 51.4% 711 34.8% 481
Person 51.0% 2,954 37.1% 2,150
Pitt 57.0% 11,856 36.3% 7,548
Polk 47.7% 1,099 48.7% 1,123
Randolph 46.6% 2,969 45.8% 2,914
Richmond 57.1% 2,941 31.0% 1,595
Robeson 51.0% 8,457 31.4% 5,206
Rockingham 54.4% 4,464 36.5% 3,000
Rowan 52.7% 5,031 41.6% 3,969
Rutherford 46.0% 2,382 44.5% 2,306
Sampson 65.7% 3,790 26.9% 1,554
Scotland 63.0% 2,671 26.9% 1,142
Stanly 49.1% 2,153 41.4% 1,813
Stokes 47.8% 1,433 44.0% 1,319
Surry 47.5% 2,380 44.0% 2,204
Swain 41.0% 666 51.2% 831
Transylvania 45.8% 1,794 49.9% 1,954
Tyrrell 49.3% 266 36.5% 197
Union 55.8% 7,630 40.6% 5,547
Vance 64.0% 4,561 28.0% 1,999
Wake 53.4% 77,927 44.8% 65,380
Warren 70.0% 2,827 24.5% 988
Washington 62.1% 1,374 27.0% 597
Watauga 29.6% 2,514 68.5% 5,811
Wayne 62.5% 7,546 29.5% 3,564
Wilkes 50.4% 2,107 42.6% 1,783
Wilson 64.2% 6,408 29.4% 2,935
Yadkin 48.0% 832 45.2% 783
Yancey 40.5% 1,134 49.5% 1,386
Total 54.6% 616,383 40.8% 460,316

AnalysisEdit

After North Carolina had sealed the deal on Clinton's dying 2008 presidential effort eight years prior by handing a double-digit win to Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton managed a commanding 13-percentage-point-victory in North Carolina over Bernie Sanders in 2016. Clinton won both men 48-47, and women 59-37; she won both married and unmarried women voters in the state. While Sanders won 59–40 with younger voters, and 52-43 with white voters, Clinton won 64–30 with older voters and 80-19 with African American voters. Clinton swept all educational attainment levels and all income levels except those who made between $50k and $100k per year. Clinton won Democrats 65-34, but lost Independents 58-34 to Sanders. Clinton won among liberals, moderates, and conservatives in the Old North State.

Clinton won in urban, Suburban, and rural areas of the state. She won Raleigh-Durham 55-42, the Charlotte area 60-39, Piedmont and central North Carolina 60-31, and Eastern North Carolina 58-34. Sanders performed strongly in Western North Carolina, which is whiter, conservative, more rural and considered to be part of Appalachia, winning 52–44. Outside of the western part of the state, Sanders won only three counties: New Hanover, home to Wilmington; the state's eighth most populated city, Dare, and Orange, the latter of which is home to the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

ReferencesEdit

  1. ^ "Midwestern States a Toss Up Tuesday" (PDF).
  2. ^ [1]
  3. ^ [2]
  4. ^ [3]
  5. ^ [4]
  6. ^ SurveyUSA
  7. ^ "Trump, Clinton Continue To Lead By Double Digits in NC" (PDF).
  8. ^ High Point University. "HPU Poll: Clinton Leads Democratic Primary; Trump, Cruz and Rubio Have Most GOP Support". High Point University.
  9. ^ "Trump Keeps Gaining in NC; Clinton Maintains Huge Lead" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. January 20, 2016. Retrieved January 22, 2016.
  10. ^ Dowdy, Demi (January 27, 2016). "Civitas Poll: Clinton Maintains Strong Lead among NC Democrats". Civitas Institute. Retrieved February 5, 2016.
  11. ^ "PPP NC poll" (PDF).
  12. ^ "Presidential Primary Poll October 29 – November 2, 2015" (PDF). Elon University. Retrieved January 22, 2016.
  13. ^ "Clinton rising in North Carolina; Trump still leads" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. October 27, 2015. Retrieved January 22, 2016.
  14. ^ "Trump Steady in North Carolina; Biden Polls Well" (PDF). www.publicpolicypolling.com. Retrieved September 30, 2015.
  15. ^ "Elon University Presidential Primary Poll September 17–21, 2015" (PDF). www.elon.edu. Retrieved September 24, 2015.
  16. ^ "Trump Continues to Grow in North Carolina; Dem Race Steady" (PDF). www.publicpolicypolling.com. Retrieved August 20, 2015.
  17. ^ "PPP NC" (PDF). publicpolicypolling.com. Retrieved July 9, 2015.
  18. ^ "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved June 4, 2018.