The 2002 United States Senate election in New Jersey was held on November 5, 2002. Former U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg was elected to an open seat over Republican businessman Doug Forrester after incumbent Senator Robert Torricelli dropped out of the race on September 30, facing ethical misconduct allegations, a formal admonishment by the U.S. Senate, and falling poll numbers against Forrester.
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  Lautenberg: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Forrester: 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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Primary elections were held on June 4. Torricelli was unopposed for the Democratic nomination, while Forrester won a competitive Republican primary over State Senators Diane Allen and John Matheussen. Another leading candidate, Essex County Executive James Treffinger, dropped out of the race on April 22 after facing a federal criminal investigation for bribery.
In the general election Torricelli, who was the target of a federal ethics probe, steadily began to trail Forrester in polling and eventually dropped out of the race in late September. The New Jersey Democratic Party sought to replace him on the general election ballot with Frank Lautenberg, who held the state's other Senate seat from 1982 to 2001. After legal proceedings aimed at forcing Torricelli's name to remain on the ballot were filed by Forrester's campaign, the New Jersey Supreme Court ruled that Lautenberg could be placed on the ballot.
On election day, Lautenberg defeated Forrester by a 9.9% margin, winning a fourth, non-consecutive term as a U.S. senator. At 78, Lautenberg became the oldest non-incumbent to win a Senate election.[1] Lautenberg became the state's junior senator for the second time when he was sworn in on January 3, 2003. (Jon Corzine, who was elected to Lautenberg's old Senate seat, became the senior senator in 2003 as Lautenberg's previous tenure in the Senate was not counted as he was starting over.)
Democratic primary edit
Candidates edit
- Robert Torricelli, incumbent U.S. Senator
Although Torricelli would later withdraw from the race, he was unopposed for the Democratic nomination on June 4.
Republican primary edit
Candidates edit
- Diane Allen, State Senator from Moorestown
- Doug Forrester, businessman and former Mayor of West Windsor (1981–1982)
- John J. Matheussen, State Senator from Mantua
Withdrew edit
- Guy Gregg, State Assemblyman from Washington Township (Morris County)[2] (withdrew April 8, endorsed Treffinger)[3]
- Robert W. Ray, former Whitewater special counsel (withdrew April 8)[3]
- James Treffinger, Essex County Executive and candidate for Senate in 2000[4] (withdrew April 22)[5]
Declined edit
- Lewis Eisenberg, former chairman of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey[4]
- Steve Forbes, publisher of Forbes magazine and candidate for President in 1996 and 2000[4]
- Thomas Kean, former Governor of New Jersey (1982–90)[4]
Campaign edit
Many Republicans were eager to take on Torricelli, who was the subject of a federal investigation into his fundraising practices in his 1996 election.
James Treffinger became the first candidate to officially announce his campaign in November 2001, shortly after the state elections which ended a decade of Republican rule. Much speculation at the time revolved around popular former Governor Thomas Kean, whom party chair Joe Kyrillos referred to as a "star player."[4]
At the April 8 filing deadline, the two trailing candidates, Assemblyman Guy Gregg and attorney Robert Ray, dropped out of the race. Gregg endorsed Treffinger, who seemingly became the front-runner for the nomination.[3]
However, Treffinger's campaign collapsed less than two weeks later, when his office was raided by federal agents as part of an investigation into his acceptance of campaign contributions in exchange for public contracts. Many state and national Republicans withdrew their support from Treffinger. Four days after the raid, he withdrew from the race.[5][6]
Results edit
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Doug Forrester | 97,275 | 44.56% | |
| Republican | Diane Allen | 80,476 | 36.87% | |
| Republican | John J. Matheussen | 40,549 | 18.58% | |
| Total votes | 218,300 | 100.00% | ||
Aftermath edit
Treffinger was arrested in October and indicted by U.S. Attorney Chris Christie on twenty counts of extortion, fraud, obstructing a federal investigation, and conspiracy.[8] He pleaded guilty in May 2003 to one count of obstruction and one count of mail fraud.[9][10]
General election edit
Candidates edit
- Doug Forrester, businessman and former mayor of West Windsor (Republican)
- Ted Glick (Green)
- Frank Lautenberg, former U.S. Senator (1982–2001) (Democratic)
- Elizabeth Macron (Libertarian)
- Greg Pason (Socialist)
- Norman E. Wahner (Conservative)
Withdrew edit
- Robert Torricelli, incumbent U.S. Senator since 1997 (Democratic)
Campaign edit
Torricelli dropped out of the race on September 30 due to ethical problems and poor poll numbers against Forrester, a relatively unknown opponent.[11] The New Jersey Democratic Party convinced the retired Lautenberg to join the race after Torricelli dropped out. In the case of The New Jersey Democratic Party v. Samson, 175 N.J. 178 (2002), Forrester sued to stop Democratic Party efforts to have Lautenberg replace Torricelli. The New Jersey Supreme Court ruled unanimously on October 2 that the party could switch Lautenberg's name in for Sen. Torricelli's on the ballot.[12] Forrester received the endorsement of President George W. Bush.[13]
- Complete video of debate, September 5, 2002
- Complete video of debate, September 12, 2002
- Complete video of debate, October 30, 2002
- Complete video of debate, November 2, 2002
Predictions edit
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] | Lean D | November 4, 2002 |
Polling edit
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Bob Torricelli (D) |
Doug Forrester (R) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac[15] | March 2002 | 1,005 RV | ±3.1% | 51% | 27% | 21% |
| Quinnipiac[16] | June 2002 | ? | ? | 44% | 36% | 20% |
| Rutgers-Eagleton | June 5–9, 2002 | 626 RV | ±4.0% | 43% | 29% | 21% |
| Quinnipiac[16] | July 31–August 6, 2002 | 978 RV | ±3.3% | 37% | 37% | 26% |
| Torricelli internal[16] | August 2002 | ? LV | ? | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Forrester internal[16] | August 19, 2002 | ? LV | ? | 35% | 47% | 18% |
| SurveyUSA[16] | August 21, 2002 | 978 RV | ±3.3% | 37% | 48% | 15% |
| Rutgers-Eagleton | September 3–8, 2002 | 537 LV | ±4.0% | 37% | 33% | 30% |
| Rutgers-Eagleton | September 18–25, 2002 | 547 RV | 34% | 41% | 26% | |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Frank Lautenberg (D) |
Doug Forrester (R) |
Other / Undecided |
| Rutgers-Eagleton | October 3–6, 2002 | 801 A | ±4.0% | 46% | 40% | 14% |
| 530 LV | ±4.5% | 44% | 44% | 12% | ||
| Rutgers-Eagleton | October 13–17, 2002 | 793 RV | ±3.5% | 44% | 35% | 22% |
| Quinnipiac[17] | October 16–20, 2002 | 603 LV | ±4.0% | 52% | 43% | 5% |
| NYT–CBS News[18] | October 19–24, 2002 | 772 RV | ±? | 46% | 39% | 21%[c] |
| SurveyUSA | October 27–29, 2002 | 732 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 51% | 41% | 8% |
| Rutgers-Eagleton | October 27–31, 2002 | 909 RV | ±3.5% | 51% | 34% | 14% |
| 458 LV | ±3.5% | 52% | 40% | 8% | ||
| Research 2000/The Record[19] | November 1–2, 2002 | 600 LV | ±4.0% | 51% | 42% | 8% |
- with Diane Allen
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Robert Torricelli (D) |
Diane Allen (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac[15] | March 2002 | 1,005 RV | ±3.1% | 49% | 30% | 21% |
- with Guy Gregg
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Robert Torricelli (D) |
Guy Gregg (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac[15] | March 2002 | 1,005 RV | ±3.1% | 52% | 26% | 22% |
- with John Mattheussen
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Robert Torricelli (D) |
John Mattheussen (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac[15] | March 2002 | 1,005 RV | ±3.1% | 52% | 28% | 20% |
- with James Treffinger
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Robert Torricelli (D) |
James Treffinger (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac[15] | March 2002 | 1,005 RV | ±3.1% | 51% | 27% | 22% |
Results edit
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Frank Lautenberg | 1,138,193 | 53.88% | ||
| Republican | Doug Forrester | 928,439 | 43.95% | ||
| Green | Ted Glick | 24,308 | 1.15% | ||
| Libertarian | Elizabeth Macron | 12,558 | 0.59% | ||
| Conservative | Norman E. Wahner | 6,404 | 0.30% | ||
| Socialist | Greg Pason | 2,702 | 0.13% | ||
| Total votes | 2,112,604 | 100.00% | |||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic edit
- Salem (largest municipality: Pennsville Township)
See also edit
Notes edit
- ^ Robert Torricelli was originally the Democratic Party nominee, but withdrew and was replaced on the ballot by Lautenberg
- ^ a b Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ 5% were for "other candidates."
References edit
- ^ Would Ted Strickland be the oldest freshman senator ever elected? Here's his competition.. Vox. 25 February 2015.
- ^ Fitzgerald, Barbara (January 6, 2002). "WORTH NOTING; Yet Another Republican Wants to Take on Torricelli". The New York Times.
- ^ a b c Peterson, Iver (April 9, 2002). "2 Quit Primary as the G.O.P. Gets Ready for Torricelli". The New York Times.
- ^ a b c d e "Treffinger Enters 2002 Race For Torricelli's Senate Seat". The New York Times. November 21, 2001.
- ^ a b Peterson, Iver (April 23, 2002). "After U.S. Raid, Treffinger Quits Senate Race In New Jersey". The New York Times. Retrieved May 5, 2010.
- ^ "Treffinger Drops Out of Senate Race After Search". Los Angeles Times. April 23, 2002. Retrieved April 28, 2022.
- ^ "NJ US Senate - R Primary". OurCampaigns.
- ^ Mansnerus, Laura (October 29, 2002). "U.S. Charges Essex Leader With Extortion". The New York Times. Retrieved May 5, 2010.
- ^ "Former Essex County Executive James Treffinger Pleads Guilty to Obstructing Justice, Mail Fraud". United States Attorney for the District of New Jersey. May 30, 2003. Archived from the original on August 30, 2010. Retrieved February 15, 2010.
- ^ Smothers, Ronald (May 31, 2003). "Treffinger Pleads Guilty To Corruption". The New York Times. Retrieved May 5, 2010.
- ^ "Online NewsHour Update: Torricelli Quits Re-election Bid -- Sept. 30, 2002". PBS. Archived from the original on November 11, 2012. Retrieved September 17, 2017.
- ^ "Online NewsHour: Vote 2002 -- New Jersey Senate Race". PBS. Archived from the original on November 11, 2012. Retrieved September 17, 2017.
- ^ Remarks by the President at Doug Forrester for Senate Event, White House press release dated September 23, 2002
- ^ "Senate Races". www.centerforpolitics.org. November 4, 2002. Archived from the original on November 18, 2002. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
- ^ a b c d e Peterson, Iver (March 10, 2002). "Latest Polling Figures Give Diane Allen a Ray of Hope". The New York Times. p. NJ2.
- ^ a b c d e Mansnerus, Laura (August 22, 2002). "Polls Suggest Torricelli Has An Even Race". The New York Times. p. B1.
- ^ Stainton, Lilo H. (October 23, 2002). "Lautenberg leads Forrester, poll finds". Camden Courier-Post. Gannett State Bureau. p. 3. Retrieved October 14, 2002.
- ^ Kocieniewski, David; Connelly, Marjorie (October 26, 2002). "Democrats Stronger with Lautenberg, Poll Shows". The New York Times. p. B1.
- ^ Stile, Charles (November 3, 2002). "All the polls pointing to Lautenberg". p. 1. Retrieved October 14, 2022.