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2000 Mexican general election

General elections were held in Mexico on Sunday, July 2, 2000.

2000 Mexican general election

← 1994 July 2, 2000 2006 →
Turnout63.97%
  Vicente Fox WEF 2003 cropped.jpg María de Lourdes, José Angel Espinoza Ferrusquilla y Francisco Labastida Ochoa (17603293742) (cropped).jpg Cuauhtemoc Cardenas Solorzano.jpg
Nominee Vicente Fox Francisco Labastida Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas
Party PAN PRI PRD
Alliance Alliance for Change Alliance for Mexico
Home state Guanajuato Sinaloa Mexico City
Popular vote 15,989,636 13,579,718 6,256,780
Percentage 42.5% 36.1% 16.6%

Elecciones Mexico Resultados 2000.PNG
States won by the presidential candidates (blue for Fox, green for Labastida and yellow for Cárdenas)

President before election

Ernesto Zedillo
PRI

Elected President

Vicente Fox
PAN

Voters went to the polls to elect:

The presidential elections were won by Vicente Fox of the Alliance for Change, who received 43.4% of the vote,[1] the first time the opposition had won an election since the Mexican Revolution. In the Congressional elections the Alliance for Change emerged as the largest faction in the Chamber of Deputies with 224 of the 500 seats, whilst the Institutional Revolutionary Party remained the largest faction in the Senate with 60 of the 128 seats in the Senate.[2] Voter turnout was between 63 and 64% in the elections.[3]

This historically significant election made Fox the first president elected from an opposition party since Francisco I. Madero in 1910, and the first one in 71 years to defeat, with 42 percent of the vote, the then-dominant Institutional Revolutionary Party.

Presidential electionEdit

Some isolated incidents of irregularities and problems were reported. For example, one irregularity in the southern state of Campeche involved the European Union electoral observer Rocco Buttiglione and could have created problems for President Ernesto Zedillo had the PRI candidate won. Overall, however, electoral observers identified little evidence that those incidents were centrally coordinated (as opposed to led by local PRI officials), and critics concluded that those irregularities which did occur did not materially alter the outcome of the presidential vote, which had been more definitive than expected.[citation needed]

Civic organizations fielded more than 80,000 trained electoral observers, foreign observers were invited to witness the process, and numerous "quick count" operations and exit polls (not all of them independent) validated the official vote tabulation. The largest exit poll was organized by the U.S. firm Penn, Schoen & Berland, financed by a hitherto obscure outfit in Dallas called Democracy Watch. It emerged later[when?][how?] that Democracy Watch had effectively been created by Vicente Fox campaign insiders to help prevent the success of any expected election fraud.[citation needed]

Numerous electoral reforms implemented since 1989 aided in the opening of the Mexican political system, and since then opposition parties have made historic gains in elections at all levels. The chief electoral concerns shifted from outright fraud to campaign fairness issues and, between 1995 and 1996, the political parties negotiated constitutional amendments to address these issues. The legislation implemented included major points of consensus that had been worked out with the opposition parties. Under the new laws, public financing predominated over private contributions to political parties, procedures for auditing parties were tightened, and the authority and independence of the electoral institutions were strengthened. The court system was also given greatly expanded authority to hear civil rights cases on electoral matters brought by individuals or groups. In short, the extensive reform efforts of the 1990s "leveled the playing field" for the parties.[citation needed]

Opinion pollsEdit

PRI candidate Francisco Labastida led in nearly all the polls throughout the first months of the campaign, although in the final two months his lead grew smaller; on the other hand, PAN candidate Vicente Fox was at second place in most of the polls, but in May and June his percentage of supporters increased and he led in many of the final polls.

Given that the overwhelming majority of the polls failed to predict Fox's victory and instead had indicated that Labastida would win by comfortable margins, it has been asserted that many of those polled lied about their preferences, fearing that if they stated support for an opposition party, they would be stripped by the PRI of the government assistance programs they were receiving. Indeed, the Reforma newspaper, which had predicted a Labastida victory in all of the polls they published during the campaign, attributed their mistake to the so-called fear factor.[4]

Poll source Date Fox
PAN
Labastida
PRI
Cárdenas
PRD
Others
Sample
size
Ref.
Mund Opinion November 1999 39% 43% 18% 0% N/A [5]
Indermec November 1999 44% 39% 16% 0% N/A
GEA November 1999 38% 41.8% 16.5% 3.7% 1200
Reforma November 1999 33.3% 53.1% 9.9% 3.7% 1542
El Universal November 1999 33.8% 46.2% 11.7% 8.3% 1537
CEO November 1999 37% 47% 11% 4% 1500
Pearson (PRI) December 1999 34% 47% 13% 6% 1647
El Universal December 1999 39.2% 47.1% 12.5% 1.2% 1475
Milenio December 1999 37.8% 42.2% 17.8% 2.2% 1006
CEPROSEPP January 2000 32% 51% 11% 6% 1510
Reforma January 2000 38.6% 48.2% 12.0% 1.2% 1544
GAUSCC (PAN) January 2000 39% 45% 14% 2% 20 866
Pearson (PRI) January 2000 36.7% 49.7% 11.9% 1.7% 1678
GAUSSC (PAN) January 2000 42.4% 43.5% 13.0% 1.1% 1500
Milenio February 2000 41.1% 42.2% 14.5% 2.2% 1200
CEPROSEPP February 2000 32.4% 45.5% 16.1% 6.0% 1346
GEA February 2000 44% 36% 18% 2% 1113
Technomgmt. February 2000 34.5% 45.3% 17.2% 3.0% 2697
El Universal February 2000 38.8% 41.8% 15.7% 3.7% 1438
Reforma February 2000 38.6% 47.0% 13.2% 1.2% 1510
Reforma February 2000 37.8% 50.0% 11.0% 1.2% 2397
Mund Opinion February 2000 35.7% 40.5% 22.6% 1.2% 1182
CEPROSEPP March 2000 31.8% 46.1% 17.0% 5.1% 1322
Pearson (PRI) March 2000 33.4% 51.6% 13.6% 1.5% 1127
Milenio March 2000 39.3% 41.6% 16.9% 2.2% 1200
El Universal March 2000 39.7% 45.0% 12.7% 2.6% 1438
Reforma March 2000 38.6% 47.0% 13.3% 1.2% 1533
GEA March 2000 43.3% 38.8% 16.5% 1.4% 1200
Technomgmt. March 2000 32.3% 47.9% 17.0% 2.8% N/A
CEPROSEPP April 2000 31.2% 45.7% 17.6% 5.5% N/A
GAUSSC April 2000 41.4% 46.0% 12.3% 0.3% 1500
Technomgmt. April 2000 32.7% 47.4% 17.7% 2.2% N/A
Reforma April 2000 42% 45% 12% 1% 1647
Quantum April 2000 36.9% 50.4% 10.0% 2.7% 1920
El Universal April 2000 39.2% 42.2% 14.0% 4.5% 1074
Reuters/Zogby April 2000 46.3% 41.6% 9.3% 2.8% 1062
Pearson (PRI) May 2000 39% 45% 12% 4% 1590
Technomgmt. May 2000 39.1% 45.5% 12.5% 2.9% 8000
Reforma May 2000 40% 42% 16% 2% 1547
GEA May 2000 43.6% 38.6% 16.4% 1.4% N/A
El Universal May 2000 42.2% 35.9% 16.2% 5.7% 1787
Milenio May 2000 36% 43% 17% 4% 2005
CEO May 2000 39.0% 42.7% 15.1% 3.2% 2450
Alduncin 12 June 2000 41% 35% 20% 4% 2095
Alduncin 12 June 2000 41% 35% 20% 4% 2095
CEO 17 June 2000 39% 43% 15% 3% 2423
ARCOP 18 June 2000 43% 38% 17% 3% 1400
Fishers 18 June 2000 36% 42% 19% 3% 2750
GEA 18 June 2000 39% 38% 19% 3% 2287
Mund/Dalla 18 June 2000 36% 37% 27% 0% 1362
Reforma 18 June 2000 39% 42% 16% 3% 1545
Reuters 18 June 2000 41% 44% 15% 1% 1330
CM Político 19 June 2000 38% 41% 18% 3% 1800
D. Watch 19 June 2000 41% 36% 20% 3% 1542
Pearson 19 June 2000 39% 43% 15% 3% 1309
Milenio/Nielsen 23 June 2000 36% 42% 16% 6% N/A [6]

Election resultsEdit

Candidate Party Votes %
Vicente Fox Quesada National Action Party (Representing Alliance for Change) 15,989,636 42.52
Francisco Labastida Ochoa Institutional Revolutionary Party 13,579,718 36.11
Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas Solórzano Party of the Democratic Revolution (Representing Alliance for Mexico) 6,256,780 16.64
Gilberto Rincón Gallardo Social Democracy 592,381 1.58
Manuel Camacho Solís Party of the Democratic Center 206,589 0.55
Porfirio Muñoz Ledo Authentic Party of the Mexican Revolution 156,896 0.42
Other candidates 30,461 0.1
Invalid/blank votes 788,157
Total 37,601,618 100
Source: Nohlen

Results by stateEdit

Based on the official results of the Federal Electoral Institute

State Fox Labastida Cárdenas Rincón Camacho Muñoz Write-in None
Aguascalientes 202,335 127,134 26,264 9,467 2,202 1,389 83 6,291
Baja California 429,194 319,477 77,340 14,562 3,470 3,080 507 14,965
Baja California Sur 60,834 56,230 45,229 2,107 460 364 17 2,804
Campeche 104,498 106,347 35,090 2,485 1,406 1,247 559 9,309
Chiapas 288,204 469,392 272,182 5,340 4,659 4,063 1,056 44,551
Chihuahua 549,177 460,931 76,810 11,569 4,487 3,166 609 21,350
Coahuila 398,800 311,480 77,393 10,392 2,111 1,880 1,454 12,464
Colima 106,445 81,099 23,313 3,159 1,028 542 39 4,377
Distrito Federal 1,928,035 1,060,227 1,146,131 149,312 36,383 18,843 2,009 75,669
Durango 211,361 222,892 50,592 6,144 1,579 1,469 859 9,294
Guanajuato 1,128,780 517,815 121,489 18,248 10,800 8,473 2,873 49,039
Guerrero 174,962 402,091 332,091 6,179 2,913 3,003 954 20,180
Hidalgo 282,864 355,565 136,861 12,319 5,034 4,078 758 19,997
Jalisco 1,392,535 941,962 163,269 45,494 17,567 11,110 3,287 48,736
México 2,239,750 1,637,714 961,876 121,137 40,733 27,203 3,416 92,743
Michoacán 419,188 441,871 543,804 13,058 7,444 6,404 2,060 30,448
Morelos 290,639 193,861 124,368 12,539 2,916 3,010 136 12,296
Nayarit 107,417 173,479 63,121 3,092 1,175 1,024 351 7,043
Nuevo León 760,093 615,907 96,637 20,448 7,478 2,658 1,519 27,201
Oaxaca 301,195 486,496 282,587 11,074 8,372 7,305 1,851 39,616
Puebla 732,435 698,974 208,688 20,170 8,609 7,849 1,142 44,305
Querétaro 290,977 192,622 39,629 10,585 3,768 8,670 170 13,849
Quintana Roo 132,383 94,202 50,487 2,399 916 729 70 5,216
San Luis Potosí 393,997 324,234 72,599 11,073 3,306 2,287 407 22,673
Sinaloa 230,777 621,329 90,488 7,205 2,189 1,675 1,290 15,920
Sonora 447,496 292,267 114,580 6,426 1,672 1,325 94 13,269
Tabasco 174,840 269,519 213,983 5,817 2,599 1,732 655 14,036
Tamaulipas 521,486 445,737 91,426 9,387 3,210 6,932 1,157 19,659
Tlaxcala 123,880 127,163 82,073 5,185 2,508 1,450 53 6,639
Veracruz 1,066,719 1,008,933 491,791 25,474 11,343 10,956 985 58,630
Yucatán 328,503 321,392 27,214 4,258 1,344 987 602 13,127
Zacatecas 169,837 197,336 117,375 6,277 2,908 1,993 439 12,461
Total 15,989,636 13,579,718 6,256,780 592,381 206,589 156,896 31,461 788,157

Voter demographicsEdit

The 2000 presidential vote by demographic subgroup
Demographic subgroup Fox Labastida Cárdenas Other % of
total vote
Total vote 42 36 16 6 100
Gender
Men 47 32 20 1 52
Women 43 40 14 3 48
Age
18-24 50 32 17 1 18
25-29 47 34 16 3 16
30-34 49 34 15 2 15
35-39 47 37 12 4 13
40-45 41 35 20 4 11
46-50 44 37 18 1 8
51-54 46 40 13 1 6
55-59 32 43 24 1 5
60+ 35 42 22 1 8
Education
None 30 46 21 3 8
Primary 35 46 18 1 34
Secondary 49 34 15 2 22
Preparatory 53 28 16 3 21
University 60 22 15 3 15
Employment
Public sector 41 37 19 3 18
Private sector 53 31 15 1 26
Self-employed 42 36 19 3 24
Student 59 19 17 5 5
Housewife 41 43 15 1 25
Region
North 50 37 12 1 23
Center-West 48 37 12 3 18
Center 43 34 20 3 35
South 41 37 20 2 24

Source: Exit poll published by the Reforma newspaper.[7]

Congress of the UnionEdit

SenateEdit

Party Constituency PR Seats +/-
Votes % Votes %
Alliance for Change 14,208,973 38.1 14,339,963 38.2 60 -17
Institutional Revolutionary Party 13,699,799 36.7 13,755,787 36.7 51 +17
Alliance for Mexico 7,027,944 18.9 7,027,994 18.8 16 -1
Social Democracy 669,725 1.8 676,388 1.8 0 New
Democratic Center Party 521,178 1.4 523,569 1.4 1 New
Authentic Party of the Mexican Revolution 275,051 0.7 276,109 0.7 0 New
Non-registered candidates 31,079 0.1 30,892 0.1 0
Invalid/blank votes 852,106 854,459
Total 37,285,855 100 37,534,641 100 128 0
Source: Nohlen

Chamber of DeputiesEdit

Party Constituency PR Seats +/-
Votes % Votes %
Alliance for Change 14,212,476 38.2 14,323,649 38.2 224 +95
Institutional Revolutionary Party 13,720,453 36.9 13,800,306 36.9 208 –31
Alliance for Mexico 6,948,204 18.7 6,990,143 18.7 65 –67
Social Democracy 698,683 1.9 703,532 1.9 0 New
Democratic Center Party 428,577 1.2 430,812 1.2 0 New
Authentic Party of the Mexican Revolution 272,425 0.7 273,615 0.7 0 New
Other parties 30,380 0.1 30,452 0.1 0
Invalid/blank votes 863,262 868,516
Total 37,174,460 100 37,421,025 100 500 0
Source: Nohlen

ReferencesEdit

  1. ^ Nohlen, D (2005) Elections in the Americas: A data handbook, Volume I, p475 ISBN 978-0-19-928357-6
  2. ^ Nohlen, p470
  3. ^ Nohlen, p455
  4. ^ Kuschik, Murilo (September 2000). Las encuestas y la elección del año 2000. Revista Mexicana de Ciencias Políticas y Sociales. p. 8. Retrieved 2 September 2019.
  5. ^ Kuschik, Murilo (September 2000). Las encuestas y la elección del año 2000. Revista Mexicana de Ciencias Políticas y Sociales. p. 8. Retrieved 2 September 2019.
  6. ^ Aznarez, Juan Jesus (24 June 2000). "Fox y Labastida empatan en los sondeos a una semana de las elecciones". El País. Retrieved 3 September 2019.
  7. ^ Klesner, Joseph L. (March 2001). "The End of Mexico's One-Party Regime". PS: Political Science and Politics. 34 (1): 110. JSTOR 1350318.