Pre-election pendulum for the 2016 Australian federal election

This is a Mackerras pendulum for the 2016 Australian federal election.

History

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The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or IRV.

The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the crossbench according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two-party or two-candidate basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.

Classification of seats as marginal, fairly safe or safe is applied by the independent Australian Electoral Commission using the following definition: "Where a winning party receives less than 56% of the vote, the seat is classified as 'marginal', 56–60% is classified as 'fairly safe' and more than 60% is considered 'safe'."[1]

Pre-election pendulum

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Based on the 2013 post-election pendulum for the Australian federal election, this pendulum has been updated to include new notional margin estimates due to redistributions in New South Wales, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory. The net effect of the redistributions reduced the Liberal/National Coalition from 90 to a notional 88 seats and increased Labor from 55 to a notional 57 seats.[2][3]

Whilst every federal election after 1961 has been won by those that also won the majority of federal seats in New South Wales, unusually nearly half of all marginal government seats are in New South Wales at this election of which nearly half are all in Western Sydney and the other half all in rural and regional areas, and with no more than a few seats each in every other state.

Assuming a theoretical uniform swing, for the Labor opposition to get to 76 seats and majority government would require Labor with 50.5 percent of the two-party vote from a 4.0-point two-party swing or greater, while for the incumbent Coalition to lose majority government would require the Coalition with 50.2 percent of the two-party vote from a 3.3-point two-party swing or greater.[4]

Government seats
Marginal
Petrie (Qld) Luke Howarth LNP 50.5
Capricornia (Qld) Michelle Landry LNP 50.8
O’Connor (WA) Rick Wilson LIB 50.9 v NWA
Lyons (Tas) Eric Hutchinson LIB 51.2
Solomon (NT) Natasha Griggs CLP 51.4
Hindmarsh (SA) Matt Williams LIB 51.9
Braddon (Tas) Brett Whiteley LIB 52.6
Banks (NSW) David Coleman LIB 52.8
Eden-Monaro (NSW) Peter Hendy LIB 52.9
Lindsay (NSW) Fiona Scott LIB 53.0
Page (NSW) Kevin Hogan NAT 53.1
Robertson (NSW) Lucy Wicks LIB 53.1
Deakin (Vic) Michael Sukkar LIB 53.2
Macarthur (NSW) Russell Matheson LIB 53.3
^^^ Government loses majority on a uniform swing ^^^
Reid (NSW) Craig Laundy LIB 53.3
Bonner (Qld) Ross Vasta LNP 53.7
Gilmore (NSW) Ann Sudmalis LIB 53.8
Corangamite (Vic) Sarah Henderson LIB 53.9
Durack (WA) Melissa Price LIB 53.9 v NWA
La Trobe (Vic) Jason Wood LIB 54.0
Bass (Tas) Andrew Nikolic LIB 54.0
^^^ Opposition wins majority on a uniform swing ^^^
Brisbane (Qld) Teresa Gambaro LNP 54.3
Forde (Qld) Bert van Manen LNP 54.4
Cowan (WA) Luke Simpkins LIB 54.5
Macquarie (NSW) Louise Markus LIB 54.5
Dunkley (Vic) Bruce Billson LIB 55.6
Leichhardt (Qld) Warren Entsch LNP 55.7
Fairly safe
Hasluck (WA) Ken Wyatt LIB 56.0
Burt (WA) new seat LIB 56.1
Herbert (Qld) Ewen Jones LNP 56.2
Flynn (Qld) Ken O'Dowd LNP 56.5
Dickson (Qld) Peter Dutton LNP 56.7
Longman (Qld) Wyatt Roy LNP 56.9
Boothby (SA) Andrew Southcott LIB 57.1
Casey (Vic) Tony Smith LIB 57.2
Swan (WA) Steve Irons LIB 57.3
Dawson (Qld) George Christensen LNP 57.6
Bennelong (NSW) John Alexander LIB 57.8
Aston (Vic) Alan Tudge LIB 58.2
Ryan (Qld) Jane Prentice LNP 58.5
Bowman (Qld) Andrew Laming LNP 58.9
Hinkler (Qld) Keith Pitt LNP 59.0
Stirling (WA) Michael Keenan LIB 59.0
Pearce (WA) Christian Porter LIB 59.3
Fisher (Qld) Mal Brough LNP 59.8
Higgins (Vic) Kelly O'Dwyer LIB 59.9
Safe
Sturt (SA) Christopher Pyne LIB 60.1
Wannon (Vic) Dan Tehan LIB 60.1
Goldstein (Vic) Andrew Robb LIB 61.0
Kooyong (Vic) Josh Frydenberg LIB 61.1
Canning (WA) Andrew Hastie LIB 61.3
Flinders (Vic) Greg Hunt LIB 61.8
Hughes (NSW) Craig Kelly LIB 61.8
McMillan (Vic) Russell Broadbent LIB 61.8
Wright (Qld) Scott Buchholz LNP 61.8
Moore (WA) Ian Goodenough LIB 62.4
Mayo (SA) Jamie Briggs LIB 62.5
McPherson (Qld) Karen Andrews LNP 63.0
Tangney (WA) Dennis Jensen LIB 63.0
Cowper (NSW) Luke Hartsuyker NAT 63.2
Wide Bay (Qld) Warren Truss LNP 63.2
Grey (SA) Rowan Ramsey LIB 63.5
Hume (NSW) Angus Taylor LIB 63.6
Lyne (NSW) David Gillespie NAT 63.6
Forrest (WA) Nola Marino LIB 63.8
Fadden (Qld) Stuart Robert LNP 64.4
Menzies (Vic) Kevin Andrews LIB 64.4
Calare (NSW) John Cobb NAT 65.0
Warringah (NSW) Tony Abbott LIB 65.3
Cook (NSW) Scott Morrison LIB 65.7
North Sydney (NSW) Trent Zimmerman LIB 65.7
Gippsland (Vic) Darren Chester NAT 65.8
Barker (SA) Tony Pasin LIB 66.5
Groom (Qld) Ian Macfarlane LNP 66.5
Moncrieff (Qld) Steven Ciobo LNP 68.0
Curtin (WA) Julie Bishop LIB 68.2
Mackellar (NSW) Bronwyn Bishop LIB 68.8
Wentworth (NSW) Malcolm Turnbull LIB 68.9
Berowra (NSW) Philip Ruddock LIB 69.0
Riverina (NSW) Michael McCormack NAT 69.0
New England (NSW) Barnaby Joyce NAT 69.5
Parkes (NSW) Mark Coulton NAT 69.9
Bradfield (NSW) Paul Fletcher LIB 70.9
Murray (Vic) Sharman Stone LIB 70.9
Mitchell (NSW) Alex Hawke LIB 71.4
Farrer (NSW) Sussan Ley LIB 71.7
Maranoa (Qld) Bruce Scott LNP 72.3
Mallee (Vic) Andrew Broad NAT 73.7
Non-government seats
Marginal
Dobell (NSW) Karen McNamara [a] ALP 50.2
McEwen (Vic) Rob Mitchell ALP 50.2
Paterson (NSW) Bob Baldwin [a] ALP 50.3
Lingiari (NT) Warren Snowdon ALP 50.9
Bendigo (Vic) Lisa Chesters ALP 51.3
Lilley (Qld) Wayne Swan ALP 51.3
Parramatta (NSW) Julie Owens ALP 51.3
Chisholm (Vic) Anna Burke ALP 51.6
Moreton (Qld) Graham Perrett ALP 51.6
Richmond (NSW) Justine Elliot ALP 51.6
Bruce (Vic) Alan Griffin ALP 51.8
Perth (WA) Alannah MacTiernan ALP 52.2
Kingsford Smith (NSW) Matt Thistlethwaite ALP 52.7
Greenway (NSW) Michelle Rowland ALP 53.0
Griffith (Qld) Terri Butler ALP 53.0
Jagajaga (Vic) Jenny Macklin ALP 53.1
Wakefield (SA) Nick Champion ALP 53.4
Melbourne Ports (Vic) Michael Danby ALP 53.6
Brand (WA) Gary Gray ALP 53.7
Oxley (Qld) Bernie Ripoll ALP 53.8
Adelaide (SA) Kate Ellis ALP 53.9
Isaacs (Vic) Mark Dreyfus ALP 53.9
Barton (NSW) Nickolas Varvaris [a] ALP 54.4
McMahon (NSW) Chris Bowen ALP 54.6
Rankin (Qld) Jim Chalmers ALP 54.8
Ballarat (Vic) Catherine King ALP 54.9
Franklin (Tas) Julie Collins ALP 55.1
Makin (SA) Tony Zappia ALP 55.1
Blair (Qld) Shayne Neumann ALP 55.3
Fremantle (WA) Melissa Parke ALP 55.4
Hunter (NSW) [b] Joel Fitzgibbon ALP 55.7
Fairly safe
Werriwa (NSW) Laurie Ferguson ALP 56.5
Whitlam (NSW) Stephen Jones ALP 56.9
Hotham (Vic) Clare O'Neil ALP 57.3
Shortland (NSW) Jill Hall ALP 57.4
Canberra (ACT) Gai Brodtmann ALP 57.5
Corio (Vic) Richard Marles ALP 57.7
Watson (NSW) Tony Burke ALP 58.9
Holt (Vic) Anthony Byrne ALP 59.1
Newcastle (NSW) Sharon Claydon ALP 59.4
Kingston (SA) Amanda Rishworth ALP 59.7
Safe
Batman (Vic) David Feeney ALP 60.6 v GRN
Chifley (NSW) Ed Husic ALP 60.9
Blaxland (NSW) Jason Clare ALP 61.2
Cunningham (NSW) Sharon Bird ALP 61.3
Maribyrnong (Vic) Bill Shorten ALP 61.4
Lalor (Vic) Joanne Ryan ALP 62.2
Fenner (ACT) Andrew Leigh ALP 62.5
Fowler (NSW) Chris Hayes ALP 62.9
Sydney (NSW) Tanya Plibersek ALP 62.9
Calwell (Vic) Maria Vamvakinou ALP 63.9
Port Adelaide (SA) Mark Butler ALP 64.0
Scullin (Vic) Andrew Giles ALP 64.3
Wills (Vic) Kelvin Thomson ALP 65.2 v GRN
Gorton (Vic) Brendan O’Connor ALP 66.1
Gellibrand (Vic) Tim Watts ALP 66.5
Grayndler (NSW) Anthony Albanese ALP 68.8
Crossbench seats
Fairfax (Qld) Clive Palmer PUP 50.0 v LNP
Indi (Vic) Cathy McGowan IND 50.3 v LIB
Kennedy (Qld) Bob Katter KAP 52.2 v LNP
Melbourne (Vic) Adam Bandt GRN 55.3 v ALP
Denison (Tas) Andrew Wilkie IND 65.5 v ALP

Notes

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a Though the seats of Dobell, Paterson and Barton were Liberal wins at the previous election, redistributions changed them in to notionally marginal Labor seats.[2]

b Pat Conroy is the current MP for the Division of Charlton which is being renamed to the Division of Hunter at the next election.

References

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  1. ^ "Division Classifications – House of Representatives - Seat Summary", Virtual Tally Room 2013, Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 30 October 2013.
  2. ^ a b 2016 Federal Election Pendulum (Update): Antony Green ABC 13 March 2016
  3. ^ Green, Antony. "2016 election pendulum". Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
  4. ^ "Mackerras pendulum for the Australian federal election, 2016" article based on 2016 election pendulum: Antony Green ABC – O'Connor and Durack not included for Labor majority calculation but are included for Coalition loss of majority calculation. Fairfax in QLD is considered a Coalition seat for Coalition loss of majority calculation.