United States presidential election in North Carolina, 2004

Main article: United States presidential election, 2004

United States presidential election in North Carolina, 2004

2000 ← November 2, 2004 → 2008

Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry Party Republican Democratic Home state Texas Massachusetts Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards Electoral vote 15 0 Popular vote 1,961,166 1,525,849 Percentage 56.02% 43.58%

County Results   Kerry—60-70%   Kerry—50-60%   Kerry—<50%   Bush—<50%   Bush—50-60%   Bush—60-70%   Bush—70-80%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in North Carolina took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 15 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

North Carolina was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 12.4% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a red state. NC was the home state of John Edwards, Democratic nominee for vice-president, who was then representing the state in the United States Senate. This was not enough for Democrats to break Republican success in this state since the 1976 presidential election of Jimmy Carter.

Primaries

• North Carolina Democratic primary, 2004

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.

1. D.C. Political Report: Likely Republican
2. Associated Press: Leans Bush
3. CNN: Bush
4. Cook Political Report: Leans Republican
5. Newsweek: Leans Bush
6. New York Times: Solid Bush
7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
8. Research 2000: Leans Bush
9. Washington Post: Bush
10. Washington Times: Solid Bush
11. Zogby International: Bush
12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Bush won every single pre-election poll. The final 3 poll average showed Bush leading 52% to 44%.

Fundraising

Bush raised $4,465,160. Kerry raised $2,049,794.

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited the state during the fall campaign.

Analysis

John Edwards failed to make his home state competitive in the general election. The main reason why is that Bush's approval rating was consistently above 50%. Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign, says the findings indicate that the Tar Heel state remains safely Republican in the presidential election. Polls showed Kerry had a strong 44% of voters in NC, but Bush consistently polled between 49%–54% and his approval ratings remained in the lower 50% range. In the end, Edwards didn't even have any effect on North Carolina's results, as they were identical to the 2000 results.

Bush won a majority of the 100 counties and congressional districts. The only region in the state that Kerry dominated in was the Northeast part of the state, the location of North Carolina's 1st congressional district. The only significant improvement Kerry–Edwards made on Al Gore in 2000 was winning heavy populated Mecklenburg County.

Results

United States presidential election in North Carolina, 2004
Party		Candidate	Running mate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Republican	George W. Bush	Richard Cheney	1,961,166	56.02%	15
	Democratic	John Kerry	John Edwards	1,525,849	43.58%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	Richard Campagna	11,731	0.34%	0
Totals				-	100%	15
Voter turnout (Voting Age population)						55.4%

Results breakdown

By county

County	Kerry	Votes	Bush	Votes	Others	Votes
Alamance	38.2%	20,686	61.5%	33,302	0.3%	187
Alexander	29.6%	4,618	70.1%	10,928	0.3%	54
Alleghany	39.8%	1,922	59.7%	2,883	0.5%	22
Anson	58.7%	5,413	41.1%	3,796	0.2%	16
Ashe	37.9%	4,477	61.7%	7,292	0.5%	54
Avery	24.0%	1,805	75.5%	5,678	0.5%	41
Beaufort	36.0%	7,025	63.7%	12,432	0.3%	65
Bertie	61.5%	4,938	38.1%	3,057	0.5%	37
Bladen	49.6%	6,109	50.1%	6,174	0.2%	30
Brunswick	39.2%	14,903	60.4%	22,925	0.4%	149
Buncombe	49.4%	51,868	50.0%	52,491	0.6%	654
Burke	38.1%	11,728	61.5%	18,922	0.4%	112
Cabarrus	32.6%	19,803	67.0%	40,780	0.4%	241
Caldwell	31.9%	9,999	67.6%	21,186	0.5%	163
Camden	35.0%	1,339	64.8%	2,480	0.3%	11
Carteret	30.2%	7,732	69.3%	17,716	0.5%	127
Caswell	48.1%	4,539	51.6%	4,868	0.3%	30
Catawba	32.1%	18,858	67.5%	39,602	0.4%	228
Chatham	49.8%	12,897	49.7%	12,892	0.5%	133
Cherokee	32.5%	3,635	67.1%	7,517	0.4%	47
Chowan	44.7%	2,406	55.1%	2,967	0.2%	13
Clay	33.5%	1,628	65.9%	3,209	0.6%	29
Cleveland	38.3%	14,215	61.4%	22,750	0.3%	114
Columbus	48.8%	10,343	50.8%	10,773	0.4%	75
Craven	37.1%	14,019	62.4%	23,575	0.4%	162
Cumberland	48.1%	45,788	51.6%	49,139	0.3%	299
Currituck	32.4%	2,909	67.0%	6,013	0.6%	54
Dare	39.5%	6,136	60.1%	9,345	0.4%	67
Davidson	28.9%	17,191	70.7%	42,075	0.4%	230
Davie	25.4%	4,233	74.2%	12,372	0.4%	75
Duplin	41.7%	6,923	58.0%	9,611	0.3%	49
Durham	68.0%	74,524	31.6%	34,614	0.5%	513
Edgecombe	61.1%	12,877	38.7%	8,163	0.2%	39
Forsyth	45.5%	63,340	54.1%	75,294	0.4%	491
Franklin	44.4%	9,286	55.2%	11,540	0.4%	92
Gaston	31.8%	20,254	67.8%	43,252	0.4%	249
Gates	52.3%	2,121	47.5%	1,924	0.2%	8
Graham	31.9%	1,272	67.5%	2,693	0.6%	22
Granville	48.7%	9,057	51.0%	9,491	0.3%	53
Greene	41.2%	2,665	58.7%	3,800	0.1%	7
Guilford	50.2%	100,042	49.3%	98,254	0.5%	1,018
Halifax	58.7%	11,528	41.2%	8,088	0.2%	31
Harnett	35.5%	11,563	64.2%	20,922	0.3%	86
Haywood	43.3%	11,237	56.1%	14,545	0.6%	150
Henderson	34.7%	15,003	64.8%	28,025	0.5%	206
Hertford	63.2%	5,141	36.2%	2,942	0.6%	49
Hoke	52.3%	5,794	47.4%	5,257	0.3%	37
Hyde	45.7%	1,048	53.9%	1,235	0.4%	10
Iredell	31.7%	18,065	67.9%	38,675	0.4%	233
Jackson	47.5%	6,737	51.9%	7,351	0.6%	86
Johnston	31.8%	17,266	67.9%	36,903	0.3%	188
Jones	41.9%	1,893	57.8%	2,607	0.3%	13
Lee	39.2%	7,657	60.6%	11,834	0.3%	52
Lenoir	44.0%	10,207	55.8%	12,939	0.1%	33
Lincoln	31.9%	9,434	67.8%	20,052	0.3%	93
McDowell	33.3%	5,330	66.2%	10,590	0.5%	82
Macon	36.5%	5,489	62.9%	9,448	0.6%	87
Madison	44.7%	4,234	54.7%	5,175	0.6%	54
Martin	48.8%	5,102	51.0%	5,334	0.2%	16
Mecklenburg	51.6%	166,828	48.0%	155,084	0.4%	1,190
Mitchell	26.7%	2,080	72.9%	5,686	0.4%	32
Montgomery	42.8%	4,313	57.0%	5,745	0.2%	22
Moore	35.3%	13,555	64.4%	24,714	0.3%	113
Nash	41.7%	15,693	58.1%	21,902	0.2%	78
New Hanover	43.8%	35,572	55.8%	45,351	0.4%	324
Northampton	63.7%	5,584	36.2%	3,176	0.1%	10
Onslow	30.2%	11,250	69.5%	25,890	0.4%	137
Orange	66.9%	42,910	32.4%	20,771	0.7%	472
Pamlico	38.7%	2,335	60.9%	3,679	0.4%	24
Pasquotank	51.2%	6,984	48.4%	6,609	0.4%	55
Pender	41.0%	6,999	58.7%	10,037	0.3%	49
Perquimans	39.8%	1,971	59.8%	2,965	0.4%	22
Person	40.7%	6,198	59.0%	8,973	0.3%	43
Pitt	46.5%	24,924	53.3%	28,590	0.2%	129
Polk	42.0%	3,787	57.0%	5,140	1.0%	94
Randolph	25.5%	12,966	74.2%	37,771	0.3%	173
Richmond	51.9%	8,383	47.7%	7,709	0.3%	53
Robeson	52.8%	17,868	47.0%	15,909	0.3%	94
Rockingham	38.6%	14,430	61.1%	22,840	0.3%	118
Rowan	32.3%	16,735	67.3%	34,915	0.4%	217
Rutherford	33.2%	8,184	66.3%	16,343	0.5%	131
Sampson	43.3%	9,649	56.5%	12,600	0.2%	39
Scotland	55.3%	6,386	44.5%	5,141	0.2%	20
Stanly	29.9%	7,650	69.7%	17,814	0.3%	89
Stokes	29.7%	5,767	70.0%	13,583	0.3%	64
Surry	31.9%	8,304	67.7%	17,587	0.4%	101
Swain	48.0%	2,419	51.4%	2,593	0.6%	32
Transylvania	39.1%	6,097	60.2%	9,386	0.7%	105
Tyrrell	46.0%	731	53.8%	855	0.3%	4
Union	29.5%	17,974	70.2%	42,820	0.3%	207
Vance	55.9%	8,762	43.9%	6,884	0.2%	31
Wake	48.7%	169,909	50.8%	177,324	0.5%	1,611
Warren	64.4%	5,171	35.4%	2,840	0.2%	16
Washington	54.3%	2,969	45.4%	2,484	0.3%	18
Watauga	46.7%	11,232	52.6%	12,659	0.7%	159
Wayne	37.6%	15,076	62.1%	24,883	0.2%	87
Wilkes	29.0%	7,862	70.7%	19,197	0.3%	95
Wilson	46.5%	14,206	53.3%	16,264	0.2%	65
Yadkin	22.5%	3,451	77.2%	11,816	0.3%	46
Yancey	47.0%	4,434	52.4%	4,940	0.6%	57

By congressional district

Bush won 9 of 13 congressional districts.

District	Bush	Kerry
1st	42%	57%	G.K. Butterfield
2nd	54%	46%	Bob Etheridge
3rd	68%	32%	Walter B. Jones
4th	44%	55%	David Price
5th	66%	33%	Richard Burr
			Virginia Foxx
6th	69%	30%	Howard Coble
7th	56%	44%	Mike McIntyre
8th	54%	45%	Robin Hayes
9th	63%	36%	Sue Wilkins Myrick
10th	67%	33%	Cass Ballenger
			Patrick T. McHenry
11th	57%	43%	Charles H. Taylor
12th	37%	63%	Mel Watt
13th	47%	52%	Brad Miller

Electors

Main article: List of United States presidential electors, 2004

Technically the voters of NC cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. NC is allocated 15 electors because it has 13 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 15 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 15 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All were pledged to and voted for Bush/Cheney:

1. Joseph W. Powell
2. Ann Sullivan
3. William B. Carraway
4. Sandra Carter
5. William H. Trotter
6. Thomas D. Luckadoo
7. Judy Keener
8. Marcia M. Spiegel
9. Dewitt Rhoades
10. Davey G. Williamson
11. Theresa Esposito
12. Elizabeth Kelly
13. Larry W. Potts
14. Joe Morgan
15. Robert Rector

References

• General election results from OurCampaigns.com