United States Senate elections, 2012
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Senate Seats up for election: Democratic incumbent
Retiring Democrat
Independent incumbent
Retiring Independent
Republican incumbent
Retiring Republican
No Senate election
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Elections to the United States Senate are to be held on November 6, 2012, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular elections whose winners will serve six-year terms from January 3, 2013 until January 3, 2019. Additionally, special elections may be held to fill vacancies that occur during the 112th United States Congress. Currently, Democrats are expected to have 23 seats up for election, including 2 independents who caucus with the Democrats, while Republicans are expected to have only 10 seats up for election.
The 2012 presidential election, elections to the House of Representatives, elections for governors in 13 states and territories, and many state and local elections will also be held on this date.
Composition
Among the Senate seats up for election in 2012, there are 21 Democrats, 10 Republicans and 2 Independents. The Independents include Joe Lieberman, who ran and won as an independent in 2006 after losing the Connecticut Democratic primary. Lieberman and Independent Bernie Sanders of Vermont both caucus with the Democratic Party.
If Senators in other classes die or resign between 2011 and 2012, there may be additional special elections between the beginning of the 112th Congress (on January 3, 2011), and the 2012 election. The dates between which the death or resignation of a Senator would lead to a special election during this time period vary from state to state.
Race summary
Latest predictions
* The Democrats include Independent Democrat Joe Lieberman, who ran and won as an independent in 2006 after losing the Connecticut Democratic primary, and Independent Bernie Sanders of Vermont, both of whom caucus with the Democratic Party.
† In Maine, leading independent Angus King has not declared which party he will caucus with. Roll Call describes the race as Leans Independent. Sabato's Crystal Ball marks it as Leans Independent/Democratic. The Cook Political Report notes King's frontrunner status but without knowing his party, treats the race as a Tossup. RealClearPolitics finds that King is likely to caucus with the Democrats, coloring the map for an independent but putting the race in the Likely Democratic column. FiveThirtyEight states it is more likely that King caucuses with the Democrats, while officially classifying the race as Likely Independent.
Overview of races
Thirty-three seats are up for election this year.
Democrats/Independents retiring
Six Democrats and one Independent (who caucuses with the Democrats) are retiring.
Joe Lieberman of Connecticut (Independent)
Four term incumbent Joe Lieberman, an independent who caucuses with the Democratic Party, will not seek reelection in 2012.[142] Lieberman sat as a Democrat until 2006, when he was defeated by Ned Lamont in the Democratic primary; he then ran as an independent in the general election; he won, and has since caucused with the Democrats as an "Independent Democrat."
Former Connecticut Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz[27] and Congressman Chris Murphy[143][dead link] have announced their candidacies for the Democratic nomination.
Republican candidates include attorney Brian K. Hill, 2010 Senate nominee Linda McMahon,[144] and former Congressmen Chris Shays.[145]
Daniel Akaka of Hawaii
Four-term incumbent Democrat Daniel Akaka was re-elected in 2006, but will not run for re-election in 2012.[146]
The primary election will take place August 11, 2012.
Former governor Linda Lingle is running for the Republican nomination.[147]
Democrats include former Congressman Ed Case, who challenged Akaka for the Democratic nomination in 2006, and current Congresswoman Mazie Hirono.[148]
Lingle, Case, Reyes, Arturo, and Hirono all previously faced each other in Hawaii's 2002 gubernatorial election, with Lingle winning with 52% of the vote.
Ben Nelson of Nebraska
Two-term incumbent and former Governor Democrat Ben Nelson will not run for re-election in 2012.[81]
Former Governor of Nebraska Bob Kerrey, who held the seat from 1989 to 2001, won the Democratic nomination for the seat.[149]
State Senator Deb Fischer defeated State Treasurer Don Stenberg and Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning for the Republican nomination.[150][151]
A May 17 Rasmussen poll shows Fischer leading Kerrey 56% to 38%.[152]
Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico
Five-term incumbent Democrat Jeff Bingaman was re-elected in 2006 with 70.6% of the vote. Bingaman has decided to retire.[153]
Republicans running include businessman Bill English,[96] former U.S. Representative Heather Wilson[154], and businessman Greg Sowards.
For the Democrats, Congressman Martin Heinrich and state Auditor Hector Balderas have declared their candidacies.
The primary will be held on June 5.
Kent Conrad of North Dakota
Four-term incumbent Democrat Kent Conrad was re-elected in 2006 with 69% of the vote. Conrad has decided to not run for re-election in 2012.[155]
U.S. Representative Rick Berg[156] has announced his candidacy as a Republican. State public service commissioner Brian Kalk initially announced his candidacy as well, but has since dropped it to run for the at large congressional seat held by Berg.[157]
On November 8, 2011, former state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp announced that she would be running for the Democratic nomination.[104]
Jim Webb of Virginia
One-term incumbent Democrat Jim Webb was elected in 2006 by a margin of 0.6%, narrowly defeating then-incumbent George Allen in the biggest upset of the 2006 elections. Announcing that he did not want spend his life in politics, Webb said he will not run for re-election.[158]
On the Democratic Side, former Governor of Virginia and DNC chairman Tim Kaine was unopposed for the nomination. Former CEO of the Brain Trauma Recovery & Policy Institute, Julien Modica, along with former Marine and small business-owner Courtney Lynch, were candidates but withdrew and endorsed him before the filing deadline.[159]
The Republican Party of Virginia decided that the Republican nominee for this senate seat would be determined through a primary, as opposed to a state convention which had been used in more recent years. On January 24, 2011, George Allen announced that he will seek the Republican nomination.[160]Jamie Radtke, head of the Virginia Tea Party Patriots, has filed papers to run for the Republican nomination.[161] Also considering a run for the Republican nomination are state Del. Robert G. Marshall (R-Manassas) and Corey Stewart, the chairman of the Prince William County Board of Supervisors. Marshall ran for the U.S. Senate in 2008, narrowly losing the Republican nomination at the state convention to former Governor Jim Gilmore by only 69 votes.
Herb Kohl of Wisconsin
Four-term incumbent Democrat Herb Kohl, owner of the NBA's Milwaukee Bucks and member of the founding family of the Kohl's department store chain, announced he would not seek reelection in 2012.[137] He was reelected in 2006 with 67% of the vote and will be 77 years old in 2012.
U.S. Representative Tammy Baldwin announced her intention to run for the seat on September 6.[162] Other potential candidates for the Democrats include former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk, and Madison biotechnology executive Kevin Conroy declined to run.[163]
On the Republican side, Former Congressman Mark Neumann, Speaker of the Wisconsin State Assembly Jeff Fitzgerald, and former Governor Tommy Thompson have confirmed their candidacies for the seat.[164]
Democrats/Independents seeking re-election
Fifteen Democrats and one Independent (who caucuses with the Democrats) are running for re-election.
Dianne Feinstein of California
Three and one-third term incumbent Democrat Dianne Feinstein was re-elected in 2006 with 59% of the vote, and is seeking reelection.[10] Feinstein faces opposition in the state's new blanket primary,[165] in which the top two candidates advance to the general election regardless of party.
The California Republican Party has endorsed Elizabeth Emken,[166] and the California Congress of Republicans has endorsed Al Ramirez.[167]
An April 4, 2012 Survey USA poll showed businessman Dan Hughes and Elizabeth Emken at 2% with Dianne Feinstein at 51% [168]
Tom Carper of Delaware
Two-term incumbent Democrat Tom Carper was reelected with 70% of the vote in 2006. He will be 65 years old in 2012. Carper will seek re-election.[35]
Possible Republican candidates include political commentator and 2010 Republican U.S. Senate nominee Christine O'Donnell,[169] Businesswoman and 2010 Republican U.S. Congress primary nominee Michele Rollins.
Bill Nelson of Florida
Two-term incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson was reelected with 60% of the vote in 2006 against controversial former Secretary of State of Florida Katherine Harris. He will be 70 years old in 2012. Nelson will seek re-election. Plant City Republican Mike McCalister has announced his candidacy, as has former U.S. Senator George LeMieux[39] and Congressman Connie Mack IV.[170]
Other potential Republican candidates include Lieutenant Governor Jennifer Carroll.[171]
Ben Cardin of Maryland
First-term incumbent Democrat Ben Cardin was elected in 2006 with 54% of the vote against former Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele. He will be 69 years old in 2012. According to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted of 569 voters from July 10–12, 2010, in a generic matchup, Cardin leads with 51%, to an unknown generic Republican at 33%.[172] Cardin is running against former U.S. Secret Service agent Daniel Bongino[173][174]
Debbie Stabenow of Michigan
Two-term incumbent Democrat Debbie Stabenow was re-elected in 2006 with 57% of the vote to 41% for Oakland County Sheriff and former State Senate Majority Leader Michael Bouchard after narrowly defeating Republican incumbent Spencer Abraham in 2000.
Republican Tea Party Activist Chad Dewey announced his intent to run in the 2012 election while attending the Tax Day Tea Party event in Washington D.C. on April 15, 2010.[175] Also libertarian activist Scotty Boman is considering a run as a Republican.[176] On May 11, it was reported that Congressman Thad McCotter was thinking of entering the race.[177] Cardlologist Rob Steele, who ran for the U.S. House of Representatives in 2010, was thought to be a possible candidate, but has announced that he will not challenge Sen. Stabenow for her seat.[178] Also in the race are Clark Durant[179] and former Congressman Pete Hoekstra.
Recent polling shows Stabenow leading all potential opponents.[180]
Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota
One-term incumbent Democrat Amy Klobuchar was elected in 2006 with 58% of the vote. Senator Klobuchar's approval ratings, last reported at.,[181] have steadily risen since her election in November 2006. Her quick response to the I-35 bridge collapse in her home city of Minneapolis and her travels around the state have solidified the senator's popularity with the citizens of Minnesota. On March 12, 2010, a Rasmussen poll indicated 67% of Minnesotans approved of the job she was doing.
In something of a surprise, the Republican nominee will be state Representative Kurt Bills, an economics teacher with Libertarian views and a supporter of outgoing Congressman Ron Paul [3].
Claire McCaskill of Missouri
Democrat Claire McCaskill was elected in 2006 with 49.6% of the vote, defeating then-incumbent Jim Talent. McCaskill will seek re-election in 2012, so far with no prominent Democrat challenging her.[182]
The primary election will take place August 14, 2012.
Republican contenders include Congressman Todd Akin, former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman,[183][184] and businessman John Brunner are running.[185] Jim Talent declined to run again, and Attorney Ed Martin and former Missouri GOP Chair Ann Wagner are instead eyeing Missouri's 2nd Congressional District.[186][187][188]
A survey by PPP conducted April 28 – May 1, 2011 showed McCaskill ahead of all declared and potential Republican candidates, but with Akin, Luetkemeyer and Steelman polling within the margin of error of ± 3.9%. In the same survey, Steelman and Akin lead the race for the Republican nomination, although 28% of voters were undecided.[189]
Jon Tester of Montana
One-term incumbent Democrat Jon Tester was elected in 2006 by a 49.2% to 48.3% margin, narrowly defeating incumbent Conrad Burns. Tester will seek re-election.[79] Republican Congressman Denny Rehberg has announced his candidacy for the seat.[190] A March 20, 2011 poll taken for Lee Newspapers shows Tester leading Rehberg by a statistically insignificant margin of 46% to 45%.
Former Republican Montana Governor and past RNC chairman Marc Racicot is also looking at running.[191]
Bob Menendez of New Jersey
One-term incumbent Democrat Bob Menendez became the first Hispanic Senator to represent New Jersey in January 2006 when Former Senator Jon Corzine appointed him to the office after having resigned to become Governor, following his election to said office in November 2005. Menendez comfortably defeated Republican state Senator Tom Kean, Jr., son of popular former Governor and 9/11 Commission Chairman Tom Kean and was elected to a full term in November 2006. He will be 58 years old in 2012.
Gwen Diakos, a former defense contractor from Monmouth County, is running against Menendez as a Democrat in the June primary.
Gavin Bard, alternative journalist, labor activist, and anarcho-syndicalist, has declared he will run as an independent based on major campaign tenets of opposing any regulation placed on the internet, abolishing CEOs in order to shift power of company decisions democratically to the workers, and convincing Sega to make the final game in the Shenmue series.[192]
The best-known Republican candidate who has announced is state Senator Joseph M. Kyrillos, who has the enthusiastic support of popular Governor Chris Christie [4]. A May 16 poll by Quinnipiac University shows Menendez leading Kryillos by a 44% to 35% margin [5].
Kirsten Gillibrand of New York
Two-term former Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton was re-elected in 2006 with 67% of the vote. She narrowly lost the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination to Barack Obama. She resigned on January 21, 2009 when the Senate confirmed her as Secretary of State. On January 23, Governor David Paterson appointed Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand to the seat. Gillibrand won a special election in 2010 with 61.2% of the vote. Gillibrand will seek re-election[99]
Sherrod Brown of Ohio
One-term incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown was elected in 2006 with 56% of the vote, defeating then-incumbent Mike DeWine, whose popularity suffered due to scandals involving former Republican Governor Bob Taft and ex-Congressman Bob Ney. Brown will seek re-election in 2012 when he will be 60 years old. A poll conducted on June 26, 2011 by Public Policy Polling shows that 45% of voters would vote to re-elect Brown, while 41% would vote to replace him.[193]
Ohio State Treasurer Josh Mandel[194] won the March 6, 2012 Republican primary with 63% of the vote.[195]
A NBC News/Marist Poll conducted on March 2, 2012 showed Brown leading Mandel 47% to 37% with 16% of Ohio voters undecided.[196]
Bob Casey, Jr. of Pennsylvania
One-term incumbent Democrat Bob Casey, Jr., the son of popular former Governor Bob Casey, was elected in 2006 with 58.7% of the vote, defeating then-incumbent Rick Santorum. He was the first Democrat elected to a full term in the U.S. Senate from Pennsylvania since 1962. Casey will seek re-election.[109]
He will face Tom Smith, a businessman and former town supervisor. Early polling showed Casey leading Smith by double-digit percentage points.[citation needed]
Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island
One-term incumbent Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse was elected in 2006 with 53.5% of the vote, defeating then-incumbent Lincoln Chafee by 6 percentage points. Whitehouse will seek reelection.
Potential Republican Candidates include Former Governor Donald Carcieri,[197] 2010 Republican nominee for Governor John Robitaille,[198][199] and Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian.[200]
Bernie Sanders of Vermont (Independent)
One-term incumbent Independent Bernie Sanders is an independent Senator (and self-described democratic socialist) who caucuses with the Democrats and won election with 65.4% of the vote in 2006 after Jim Jeffords, also an independent, retired. Sanders will be 71 years old in 2012.
John MacGovern[201] and H. Brooke Paige[202] will seek the Republican nomination in the August 28, 2012 primary election.
Maria Cantwell of Washington
Two-term incumbent Democrat Maria Cantwell was re-elected in 2006 with 57% of the vote over Republican businessman Mike McGavick. In her 2012 reelection, she will be challenged by Republican state Senator Michael Baumgartner, a former U.S. State Department employee who represents a legislative district in the eastern part of the state [6]. A February 24 poll by Public Policy Polling shows Cantwell leading Baumgartner by a 51% to 36% margin. The primary election will take place August 7, 2012.
Joe Manchin of West Virginia
Nine-term Democratic Senator Robert Byrd, the longest serving U.S. Senator in history, was re-elected in 2006 but died during his term. A special election to fill this seat was held in November 2010, which Democratic Governor Joe Manchin won with 53.5% of the vote. He defeated Sheirl Fletcher in the May 15 primary election.[203]
John Raese is the Republican nominee, and was unchallenged in the primary election.[204]
Republicans retiring or defeated in primary
Four incumbent Republicans are retiring or were defeated in the primary.
Jon Kyl of Arizona
Three-term incumbent and Senate Minority Whip Republican Jon Kyl was re-elected in 2006 with 53% of the vote. He has announced he will not seek a fourth term in 2012, when he will be 70 years old.[1][205] Republican Representative Jeff Flake (AZ-6) announced in February 2011 that he will seek his party's nomination.[206]
Richard Lugar of Indiana
Six-term incumbent Republican Richard Lugar was re-elected in 2006 with 87% of the vote, running unopposed by a Democrat. When the 111th Congress convened, Lugar became the most senior Republican in the Senate. On August 11, 2010, Lugar announced he expects to run for a 7th term in 2012.[46] He will be 80 years old in 2012. Lugar was soundly defeated in the primary by conservative state Treasurer Richard Mourdock, who criticized Lugar for his willingness to vote with Democrats on key issues.[citation needed] Lugar was embarrassed when the Marion County Election Board ruled that Lugar was not a legal resident, because he listed his address at a home he no longer lives in, and is thus not eligible to vote in Indiana.[207] Lugar appealed the decision, and eventually changed his registration to his farm in Indiana.[208] According to Indiana law, Lugar cannot be a candidate in the election (e.g. under a third party or as independent) after he loses the primary.[209] Mourdock won the primary by a 61% to 39% margin [7].
Congressman Joe Donnelly is the Democratic nominee.
Olympia Snowe of Maine
Three-term incumbent Republican Olympia Snowe was re-elected in 2006 with 73 percent of the vote, the largest margin of any incumbent senator in 2006 in a contested election.
On February 28, 2012, Snowe suddenly announced her retirement, saying she did not want to spend another six years in the Senate's hyper-partisan environment.[210]
Scott D'Amboise, considered a conservative, announced in February 2010 that he would run against Snowe in the Republican primary.[211] Tea Party candidate Andrew Ian Dodge is also announced a challenge to Snowe.[212] After Snowe's announcement, other Republicans got into the race, including Secretary of State Charles Summers, state Treasurer Bruce Poliquin, and former state Senator Rick Bennett.
Former Maine Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap, a Democrat, announced in early November 2011 that he was running in the Democratic primary. Also in November, State Representative Jon Hinck announced he would run in the Democratic primary. Democratic State Senator Cynthia Dill announced her candidacy in January.
Popular former Governor Angus King, an independent, has announced his candidacy and is believed to be the front-runner for the general election.
Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas
Three-term incumbent Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison was re-elected in 2006 with 62% of the vote despite a poor overall climate for Republicans, who lost control of both chambers of Congress that year. She announced in 2007 that she would not seek re-election, and she ran unsuccessfully for the Republican nomination for Texas Governor in 2009.[213][214]
For the Republicans, former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz, Texas Lt. Governor David Dewhurst, former SMU Mustangs running back and ESPN analyst Craig James, and former Dallas mayor Tom Leppert are candidates.[215][216][217]
On December 19, former state representative Paul Sadler filed to run as a Democrat.[218] Also running as Democrats are Sean Hubbard, Addie Dainell Allen and Daniel Boone.
Republicans seeking re-election
Six Republicans are seeking re-election
Scott Brown of Massachusetts
Eight-term former Democrat Ted Kennedy was re-elected in 2006, but died in August 2009. Paul G. Kirk was appointed as the interim senator by Governor Deval Patrick, and served until Republican state legislator Scott Brown was elected in a a January 2010 special election. He is the first Republican senator to be elected in Massachusetts since 1972. Brown is running for election to a full term in 2012.[57]
Harvard Law School professor Elizabeth Warren is running for the Democratic nomination,[219] and will face immigration lawyer Marisa DeFranco.[220]
Roger Wicker of Mississippi
One-term incumbent Republican Roger Wicker was appointed after former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott announced on November 26, 2007 that he was going to resign by the end of 2007.[221] Wicker defeated former Governor Ronnie Musgrove in the 2008 special election and will be up for re-election in 2012.
On March 13, 2012, Wicker won the primary election with 89% of the vote, and will face Albert N. Gore Jr. of Starkville, who won the Democratic primary election with 57% of the vote.
Dean Heller of Nevada
Republican John Ensign won his second term in the Senate in 2006 with 55% of the vote, defeating Democrat Jack Carter. In 2009, Ensign admitted to an affair with a campaign staffer.[222] He initially announced that he was running for re-election,[223] but in March 2011 announced that he would resign effective May 2011, and would not seek reelection.[224] Governor Brian Sandoval was appointed Republican Congressman Dean Heller to succeed him.
Republican Congressman Dean Heller announced he would run for a full term in 2012.[225]
Democratic Congresswoman Shelley Berkley is running.
Bob Corker of Tennessee
One-term incumbent Republican Bob Corker was elected in 2006 with 50.7% of the vote. He narrowly defeated then-Congressman Harold Ford, Jr.. Country music singer Hank Williams, Jr. has expressed an interest in challenging Corker for the GOP nomination in 2012.[226]
Corker set up "the Bob Corker for Senate 2012 committee" on November 8, 2006, or one day after winning a six-year term.[227]
Orrin Hatch of Utah
Six-term incumbent and former Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Republican Orrin Hatch was re-elected in 2006 with 62% of the vote. He will be 78 years old in 2012, and is running for re-election. Though Hatch remains popular with Utahns in general, he is viewed by many in the Utah Republican Party as too moderate, and many names are being floated as potential challengers.[127] The name most frequently mentioned was that of conservative Congressman Jason Chaffetz, who had criticized Hatch, but Chaffetz announced on August 22, 2011, that he would not run against Hatch.[228] Also frequently mentioned is state Senator Dan Liljenquist.[229] At the Utah Republican Party Caucus held on March 15, 2012, it was determined that state Senator Liljenquist would challenge US Senator Hatch in the Primary Election to be held on June 26, 2012.[230][231]
Among Democrats, Scott Howell, former state Senator and 2000 US Senate nominee, defeated Pete Ashdown, CEO of XMission and 2006 nominee for U.S. Senate, in the Utah Democratic Party caucus to secure the nomination to challenge the Utah Republican Party nominee for the US Senate seat currently held by US Senator Orrin Hatch. [232]
John Barrasso of Wyoming
One-term incumbent Republican John Barrasso was appointed to the Senate in 2007 after the death of Republican Craig L. Thomas and won a special election in 2008 to complete Thomas's term.
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