Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2012

United States President Election Polling, 2012

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November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06)

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Leading Presidential 2012 candidate by electoral vote count. States in gray have no polling data. Polls from lightly shaded states are older than February 1, 2012.

Barack Obama

288

Mitt Romney

192

Shared Lead

No Data

(270 electoral votes needed to win)

Incumbent before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

President-elect

TBD
TBD

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This article provides a collection of state-wide public opinion polls that are being conducted relating to the 2012 United States presidential election. All persons named in the polling are speculated by media sources as being likely or possible Republican candidates, against incumbent President Barack Obama.

Opinion polling: Obama vs named opponent

Arizona

11 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 55%–44%
(Republican in 2008) 53%–45%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.4% Sample size: 500	May 17 – May 20, 2012	Barack Obama	43%	Mitt Romney	50%	7
Magellan Strategies Margin of error: ±3.25% Sample size: 909	April 30 – May 2, 2012	Barack Obama	43%	Mitt Romney	52%	9
Behavior Research Center Margin of error: ±4.4% Sample size: 511	April 9-17, 2012	Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	40%	2
Arizona State University Margin of error: ±4.4% Sample size: 488	April 8-14, 2012	Barack Obama	40%	Mitt Romney	42%	2
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	March 13, 2012	Barack Obama	40%	Mitt Romney	51%	11
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	March 13, 2012	Barack Obama	44%	Rick Santorum	45%	1
NBC News/Marist College Margin of error: ±1.8% Sample size: 2,487	February 19–20, 2012	Barack Obama	40%	Mitt Romney	45%	5
		Barack Obama	41%	Ron Paul	43%	2
		Barack Obama	45%	Newt Gingrich	40%	5
		Barack Obama	42%	Rick Santorum	45%	3
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.6% Sample size: 743	February 17–19, 2012	Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	47%	Tie
		Barack Obama	46%	Ron Paul	42%	4
		Barack Obama	48%	Newt Gingrich	44%	4
		Barack Obama	46%	Rick Santorum	47%	1
Behavior Research Center Margin of error: ±4.3% Sample size: 553	January 5–9, 2012	Barack Obama	37%	Mitt Romney	43%	6
		Barack Obama	44%	Ron Paul	36%	8
		Barack Obama	45%	Newt Gingrich	35%	10
		Barack Obama	43%	Rick Santorum	34%	9
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.4% Sample size: 500	November 17–20, 2011	Barack Obama	46%	Herman Cain	42%	4
		Barack Obama	45%	Newt Gingrich	45%	Tied
		Barack Obama	43%	Ron Paul	44%	1
		Barack Obama	47%	Rick Perry	40%	7
		Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	49%	7
BRC/Rocky Mountain Poll Margin of error: ±4.1% Sample size: 581	October 13–24, 2011	Barack Obama	45%	Herman Cain	38%	7
		Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	40%	5
		Barack Obama	44%	Rick Perry	38%	6
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.9% Sample size: 623	April 28 – May 1, 2011	Barack Obama	47%	Newt Gingrich	40%	7
		Barack Obama	46%	Mike Huckabee	44%	2
		Barack Obama	49%	Sarah Palin	38%	11
		Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	48%	4
		Barack Obama	48%	Donald Trump	36%	12
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.0% Sample size: 599	January 28–30, 2011	Barack Obama	46%	Newt Gingrich	46%	Tied
		Barack Obama	44%	Mike Huckabee	48%	4
		Barack Obama	49%	Sarah Palin	41%	8
		Barack Obama	43%	Mitt Romney	49%	6
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.9% Sample size: 617	September 18–21, 2009	Barack Obama	47%	Sarah Palin	47%	Tied
		Barack Obama	45%	Mike Huckabee	49%	4
		Barack Obama	43%	Mitt Romney	50%	7

Arkansas

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 54%–45%
(Republican in 2008) 59%–39%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Talk Business-Hendrix College Margin of error: ±3.6% Sample size: 759	March 26, 2012	Barack Obama	33%	Mitt Romney	57%	24
Talk Business-Hendrix College Margin of error: ±2.1% Sample size: 2101	September 15, 2011	Barack Obama	34%	Mitt Romney	50%	16

California

55 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 54%–45%
(Democratic in 2008) 61%–37%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Survey USA Margin of error: ±2.2% Sample size: 1,995	March 29, 2012 - April 2, 2012	Barack Obama	62%	Mitt Romney	31%	31
Los Angeles Times Margin of error: ±2.9% Sample size: 1500	March 14–19, 2012	Barack Obama	57%	Mitt Romney	36%	21
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	February 8–16, 2012	Barack Obama	57%	Mitt Romney	35%	22
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	February 8–16, 2012	Barack Obama	58%	Rick Santorum	30%	28
SurveyUSA Margin of error: ±2.1% Sample size: 2,088	February 8–9, 2012	Barack Obama	60%	Mitt Romney	31%	29
		Barack Obama	63%	Newt Gingrich	27%	36
		Barack Obama	61%	Ron Paul	29%	31
		Barack Obama	61%	Rick Santorum	29%	32
Field Margin of error: ±3.1% Sample size: 1,000	November 15–27, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Mitt Romney	40%	10
Field Margin of error: ±3.1% Sample size: 1,000	November 15–27, 2011	Barack Obama	55%	Newt Gingrich	35%	20
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.4% Sample size: 500	November 10–13, 2011	Barack Obama	60%	Michele Bachmann	31%	29
		Barack Obama	61%	Herman Cain	32%	29
		Barack Obama	60%	Newt Gingrich	34%	26
		Barack Obama	57%	Ron Paul	32%	25
		Barack Obama	60%	Rick Perry	31%	29
		Barack Obama	57%	Mitt Romney	36%	21
Survey USA Margin of error: ±3.5% Sample size: 800	November 10, 2011	Barack Obama	56%	Newt Gingrich	32%	24
Survey USA Margin of error: ±3.5% Sample size: 800	November 10, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Mitt Romney	39%	11
Field Margin of error: ±3.2% Sample size: 1,001	September 1–12, 2011	Barack Obama	51%	Mitt Romney	38%	13
Field Margin of error: ±3.2% Sample size: 1,001	September 1–12, 2011	Barack Obama	54%	Rick Perry	35%	19
L.A. Times/USC Margin of error: ±4.0% Sample size: 1,408	August 17–28, 2011	Barack Obama	56%	Rick Perry	32%	24
		Barack Obama	57%	Michele Bachmann	31%	26
		Barack Obama	54%	Mitt Romney	35%	19
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.3% Sample size: 892	January 28–30, 2011	Barack Obama	58%	Newt Gingrich	34%	24
		Barack Obama	54%	Mike Huckabee	39%	15
		Barack Obama	62%	Sarah Palin	31%	31
		Barack Obama	56%	Mitt Romney	36%	20

Colorado

9 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 52%–47%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–45%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Purple Poll Margin of error: ±4.1% Sample size: 1,705	April 19–23, 2012	Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	47%	Tied
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.2% Sample size: 542	April 5–7, 2012	Barack Obama	53%	Mitt Romney	40%	13
		Barack Obama	55%	Newt Gingrich	37%	18
		Barack Obama	54%	Rick Santorum	38%	16
		Barack Obama	47%	Ron Paul	42%	5
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.5% Sample size: 793	December 1–4, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Newt Gingrich	42%	8
		Barack Obama	52%	Herman Cain	36%	16
		Barack Obama	48%	Ron Paul	39%	9
		Barack Obama	52%	Rick Perry	37%	15
		Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	45%	2
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.3% Sample size: 510	August 4–7, 2011	Barack Obama	51%	Michele Bachmann	39%	12
		Barack Obama	51%	Herman Cain	35%	16
		Barack Obama	54%	Sarah Palin	38%	16
		Barack Obama	51%	Rick Perry	38%	13
		Barack Obama	48%	Mitt Romney	41%	7
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.3% Sample size: 517	February 4–6, 2011	Barack Obama	53%	Newt Gingrich	39%	14
		Barack Obama	51%	Mike Huckabee	42%	9
		Barack Obama	55%	Sarah Palin	36%	19
		Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	41%	6

Connecticut

7 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 54%–44%
(Democratic in 2008) 61%–38%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±4.7% Sample size: 1,622	March 14–19, 2012	Barack Obama	53%	Mitt Romney	37%	16
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±4.7% Sample size: 1,622	March 14–19, 2012	Barack Obama	55%	Rick Santorum	35%	20
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.0% Sample size: 592	September 22–25, 2011
		Barack Obama	55%	Michele Bachmann	36%	19
		Barack Obama	54%	Newt Gingrich	38%	16
		Barack Obama	53%	Rick Perry	41%	12
		Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	45%	2
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.8% Sample size: 1,230	September 8–13, 2011	Barack Obama	52%	Rick Perry	33%	19
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.8% Sample size: 1,230	September 8–13, 2011	Barack Obama	49%	Mitt Romney	36%	13

Florida

29 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 52%–47%
(Democratic in 2008) 51%–48%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.4% Sample size: 1,722RV	May 15-21, 2012	Barack Obama	41%	Mitt Romney	47%	6
NBC News/Marist Margin of error: ±3.0% Sample size: 1,078RV	May 17-20, 2012	Barack Obama	48%	Mitt Romney	44%	4
Suffolk/7News Margin of error: ±--% Sample size: 600	May 5-8, 2012	Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	45%	1
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.9% Sample size: 1,169	April 25 - May 1, 2012	Barack Obama	43%	Mitt Romney	44%	1
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	April 25, 2012	Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	46%	1
Purple Poll Margin of error: ±4.1% Sample size: 1,705	April 19–23, 2012	Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	47%	2
Fox News Anderson Robbins Shaw & Co. Margin of error: ±4% Sample size: 757	April 15-17, 2012	Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	43%	2
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.7% Sample size: 700	April 12–15, 2012	Barack Obama	52%	Newt Gingrich	40%	8
		Barack Obama	50%	Ron Paul	40%	10
		Barack Obama	50%	Mitt Romney	45%	5
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.8% Sample size: 1,228	March 20–26, 2012	Barack Obama	49%	Mitt Romney	42%	7
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.8% Sample size: 1,228	March 20–26, 2012	Barack Obama	50%	Rick Santorum	37%	13
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	March 13, 2012	Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	43%	3
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	March 13, 2012	Barack Obama	45%	Rick Santorum	43%	2
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	February 9, 2012	Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	44%	3
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	February 9, 2012	Barack Obama	47%	Rick Santorum	46%	1
NBC News/Marist College Margin of error: ±1.9% Sample size: 2,795	January 25–27, 2012	Barack Obama	49%	Mitt Romney	41%	8
		Barack Obama	52%	Newt Gingrich	35%	17
		Barack Obama	50%	Ron Paul	36%	14
		Barack Obama	50%	Rick Santorum	35%	15
Mason-Dixon Miami Herald El Nuevo Herald Margin of error: ±3.5% Sample size: 800	January 24–26, 2012	Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	48%	4
		Barack Obama	50%	Newt Gingrich	41%	9
		Barack Obama	50%	Rick Santorum	39%	11
Suffolk University Margin of error: ±--% Sample size: 600	January 22–24, 2012	Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	47%	5
Suffolk University Margin of error: ±--% Sample size: 600	January 22–24, 2012	Barack Obama	49%	Newt Gingrich	40%	9
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.5% Sample size: 1,518	January 19–23, 2012	Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	45%	Tied
		Barack Obama	50%	Newt Gingrich	39%	11
		Barack Obama	47%	Ron Paul	39%	8
		Barack Obama	49%	Rick Santorum	40%	9
Everglades Foundation/Tarrance Group Margin of error: ±4.1% Sample size: 607	January 4–8, 2012	Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	45%	1
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.6% Sample size: 1,412	January 4–8, 2012	Barack Obama	43%	Mitt Romney	46%	3
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.6% Sample size: 1,412	January 4–8, 2012	Barack Obama	45%	Rick Santorum	43%	2
NBC News/Marist College Margin of error: ±2.1% Sample size: 2,119	December 4–7, 2011	Barack Obama	48%	Mitt Romney	41%	7
		Barack Obama	51%	Newt Gingrich	39%	12
		Barack Obama	49%	Ron Paul	36%	13
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.8% Sample size: 1,226	November 28 – December 5, 2011	Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	45%	3
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.8% Sample size: 1,226	November 28 – December 5, 2011	Barack Obama	46%	Newt Gingrich	44%	2
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.7% Sample size: 700	November 28 – December 1, 2011	Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	44%	1
		Barack Obama	50%	Newt Gingrich	44%	6
		Barack Obama	51%	Herman Cain	37%	14
		Barack Obama	46%	Rick Perry	40%	6
		Barack Obama	50%	Ron Paul	38%	12
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	November 17, 2011	Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	46%	4
		Barack Obama	46%	Herman Cain	37%	9
		Barack Obama	45%	Newt Gingrich	43%	2
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.9% Sample size: 1,185	October 31 – November 7, 2011	Barack Obama	45%	Herman Cain	41%	4
		Barack Obama	45%	Newt Gingrich	42%	3
		Barack Obama	46%	Rick Perry	40%	6
		Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	45%	3
Suffolk University Margin of error: ±--% Sample size: 800	October 26–30, 2011
		Barack Obama	42%	Herman Cain	39%	3
		Barack Obama	46%	Rick Perry	34%	8
		Barack Obama	44%	Ron Paul	32%	12
		Barack Obama	45%	Newt Gingrich	38%	7
		Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	42%	Tied
NBC News/Marist Margin of error: ±2.1% Sample size: 2,225	October 10–12, 2011
		Barack Obama	47%	Herman Cain	41%	6
		Barack Obama	47%	Rick Perry	39%	8
		Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	43%	2
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 476	September 22–25, 2011
		Barack Obama	49%	Michele Bachmann	44%	5
		Barack Obama	50%	Newt Gingrich	42%	8
		Barack Obama	45%	Ron Paul	44%	1
		Barack Obama	50%	Rick Perry	43%	7
		Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	45%	1
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±3.1% Sample size: 1,007	September 14–19, 2011	Barack Obama	44%	Rick Perry	42%	2
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±3.1% Sample size: 1,007	September 14–19, 2011	Barack Obama	40%	Mitt Romney	47%	7
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±3.6% Sample size: 743	August 1–2, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Michele Bachmann	38%	12
		Barack Obama	53%	Sarah Palin	34%	19
		Barack Obama	44%	Rick Perry	39%	5
		Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	44%	Tied
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±3.8% Sample size: 674	July 27–31, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Michele Bachmann	36%	14
		Barack Obama	54%	Sarah Palin	33%	21
		Barack Obama	49%	Rick Perry	36%	13
		Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	41%	5
Sunshine State News/VSS Margin of error: ±3.10% Sample size: 1,000 LV	July 5–7, 2011	Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	46%	4
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.4% Sample size: 848	June 16–19, 2011	Barack Obama	49%	Michele Bachmann	40%	9
		Barack Obama	48%	Herman Cain	37%	11
		Barack Obama	52%	Sarah Palin	40%	12
		Barack Obama	48%	Tim Pawlenty	40%	8
		Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	43%	4
Suffolk University/7 News Margin of error: ±4% Sample size: 600	April 10–12, 2011	Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	43%	1
		Barack Obama	44%	Mike Huckabee	41%	3
		Barack Obama	41%	Tim Pawlenty	28%	13
		Barack Obama	45%	Michele Bachmann	30%	15
		Barack Obama	47%	Newt Gingrich	36%	11
		Barack Obama	52%	Sarah Palin	34%	18
		Barack Obama	49%	Donald Trump	34%	15
		Barack Obama	47%	Haley Barbour	26%	17
		Barack Obama	48%	Ron Paul	30%	18
Mason-Dixon Margin of error: ±3.5% Sample size: 800	April 4–7, 2011	Barack Obama	43%	Mitt Romney	48%	5
		Barack Obama	44%	Mike Huckabee	49%	5
		Barack Obama	51%	Sarah Palin	39%	12
		Barack Obama	48%	Donald Trump	40%	8
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.4% Sample size: 500	March 24–27, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Newt Gingrich	42%	8
		Barack Obama	50%	Mike Huckabee	43%	7
		Barack Obama	52%	Sarah Palin	39%	13
		Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	44%	2
		Barack Obama	48%	Jeb Bush	45%	3
		Barack Obama	48%	Rudy Giuliani	42%	6
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.0% Sample size: 1034	December 17–20, 2010	Barack Obama	47%	Newt Gingrich	42%	5
		Barack Obama	49%	Mike Huckabee	44%	5
		Barack Obama	52%	Sarah Palin	38%	14
		Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	44%	2
		Barack Obama	48%	Marco Rubio	40%	8

Georgia

16 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 58%–41%
(Republican in 2008) 52%–47%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Landmark/Rosetta Stone Margin of error: ±4.0% Sample size: 600	May 10, 2012	Barack Obama	40%	Mitt Romney	51%	11
Survey USA Margin of error: ±2.9% Sample size: 1,156	February 23–26, 2012	Barack Obama	44%	Newt Gingrich	48%	4
		Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	49%	7
		Barack Obama	43%	Rick Santorum	47%	4
		Barack Obama	43%	Ron Paul	46%	3
Mason Dixon Margin of error: ±4% Sample size: 625	December 12–14, 2011	Barack Obama	41%	Newt Gingrich	50%	9
Mason Dixon Margin of error: ±4% Sample size: 625	December 12–14, 2011	Barack Obama	38%	Mitt Romney	55%	17
Survey USA Margin of error: ±2.9% Sample size: 1,176	December 6–7, 2011	Barack Obama	42%	Newt Gingrich	48%	6
Survey USA Margin of error: ±2.9% Sample size: 1,176	December 6–7, 2011	Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	49%	7
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.5% Sample size: 790	March 31 – April 3, 2011	Barack Obama	46%	Newt Gingrich	45%	1
		Barack Obama	45%	Mike Huckabee	48%	3
		Barack Obama	48%	Sarah Palin	43%	5
		Barack Obama	43%	Mitt Romney	46%	3
		Barack Obama	44%	Herman Cain	39%	5

Hawaii

4 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 54%–45%
(Democratic in 2008) 72%–27%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.1% Sample size: 568	October 13–16, 2011	Barack Obama	64%	Michele Bachmann	28%	36
		Barack Obama	63%	Herman Cain	30%	33
		Barack Obama	64%	Newt Gingrich	27%	37
		Barack Obama	63%	Rick Perry	28%	35
		Barack Obama	59%	Mitt Romney	32%	27

Illinois

20 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 55%–45%
(Democratic in 2008) 62%–37%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Chicago Tribune Margin of error: ±4.0% Sample size: 600	February 2–6, 2012	Barack Obama	56%	Mitt Romney	35%	21
Paul Simon Public Policy Institute Margin of error: ±3.0% Sample size: 1000	October 11–16, 2011	Barack Obama	46.1%	Mitt Romney	38.5%	7.6
	October 11–16, 2011	Barack Obama	49.3%	Ron Paul	30.3%	19

Indiana

11 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 60%–39%
(Democratic in 2008) 50%–49%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Ramussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.0% Sample size: 600	May 25, 2012	Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	48%	6
Howey Politics DePauw University Bellwether Research Garin-Hart-Yang Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 503	March 26–27, 2012	Barack Obama	40%	Mitt Romney	49%	9
	March 26–27, 2012	Barack Obama	41%	Rick Santorum	46%	5

Iowa

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 50%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–44%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±2.85% Sample size: 1,181	May 3–6, 2012	Barack Obama	47%	Ron Paul	39%	8
	May 3–6, 2012	Barack Obama	51%	Mitt Romney	41%	10
Des Moines Register Margin of error: ±3.5% Sample size: 611	February 12–15, 2012	Barack Obama	51%	Newt Gingrich	37%	14
		Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	46%	2
		Barack Obama	42%	Ron Paul	49%	7
		Barack Obama	44%	Rick Santorum	48%	4
NBC News/Marist College Margin of error: ±2.6% Sample size: 1,393	November 27–29, 2011	Barack Obama	48%	Rick Perry	37%	11
		Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	39%	7
		Barack Obama	54%	Michele Bachmann	31%	23
		Barack Obama	47%	Newt Gingrich	37%	10
		Barack Obama	50%	Herman Cain	32%	18
		Barack Obama	42%	Ron Paul	42%	Tied
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.6% Sample size: 749	October 7–10, 2011	Barack Obama	49%	Michele Bachmann	39%	10
		Barack Obama	47%	Herman Cain	41%	6
		Barack Obama	50%	Newt Gingrich	39%	11
		Barack Obama	47%	Ron Paul	40%	7
		Barack Obama	49%	Rick Perry	39%	10
		Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	42%	4
NBC News-Marist College Margin of error: ±1.8% Sample size: 2,836	October 3–5, 2011	Barack Obama	46%	Rick Perry	37%	9
	October 3–5, 2011	Barack Obama	43%	Mitt Romney	40%	3
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.5% Sample size: 798	August 19–21, 2011	Barack Obama	51%	Michele Bachmann	34%	17
		Barack Obama	51%	Herman Cain	33%	18
		Barack Obama	54%	Sarah Palin	33%	21
		Barack Obama	51%	Rick Perry	38%	13
		Barack Obama	49%	Mitt Romney	39%	10
Mason-Dixon Margin of error: ±3.9% Sample size: 629	July 5–7, 2011	Barack Obama	47%	Michele Bachmann	46%	1
Mason-Dixon Margin of error: ±3.9% Sample size: 629	July 5–7, 2011	Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	47%	3
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±2.6% Sample size: 1387	May 27–30, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Herman Cain	32%	18
		Barack Obama	54%	Newt Gingrich	33%	21
		Barack Obama	55%	Sarah Palin	35%	20
		Barack Obama	49%	Tim Pawlenty	37%	12
		Barack Obama	49%	Mitt Romney	40%	9
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±2.9% Sample size: 1109	April 15–17, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Newt Gingrich	39%	11
		Barack Obama	45%	Mike Huckabee	45%	Tied
		Barack Obama	53%	Sarah Palin	36%	17
		Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	41%	4
		Barack Obama	51%	Donald Trump	35%	16
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.0% Sample size: 1077	January 7–9, 2011	Barack Obama	51%	Newt Gingrich	38%	13
		Barack Obama	47%	Mike Huckabee	43%	4
		Barack Obama	53%	Sarah Palin	37%	16
		Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	41%	6

Kansas

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 62%–37%
(Republican in 2008) 57%–42%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Survey USA Margin of error: ±3.5% Sample size: 800	November 10, 2011	Barack Obama	35%	Newt Gingrich	52%	17
Survey USA Margin of error: ±3.5% Sample size: 800	November 10, 2011	Barack Obama	31%	Mitt Romney	56%	25

Kentucky

8 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 60%–40%
(Republican in 2008) 57%–41%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.0% Sample size: 600	August 25–28, 2011	Barack Obama	43%	Michele Bachmann	46%	3
		Barack Obama	47%	Newt Gingrich	44%	3
		Barack Obama	48%	Sarah Palin	44%	4
		Barack Obama	42%	Rick Perry	49%	7
		Barack Obama	40%	Mitt Romney	48%	8

Louisiana

8 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 57%–42%
(Republican in 2008) 59%–40%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Clarus Research Margin of error: ±5.6% Sample size: 602	October 5–7, 2011	Barack Obama	37%	Mitt Romney	53%	16
Clarus Research Margin of error: ±5.6% Sample size: 602	October 5–7, 2011	Barack Obama	37%	Rick Perry	52%	15
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.6% Sample size: 727	July 17–19, 2009	Barack Obama	42%	Sarah Palin	49%	7
	July 17–19, 2009	Barack Obama	40%	Bobby Jindal	54%	14

Maine

4 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 53%–45%
(Democratic in 2008) 58%–40%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Critical Insights Margin of error: ±4.0% Sample size: 600	May 2–7, 2012	Barack Obama	50%	Mitt Romney	42%	8
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±2.8% Sample size: 1,256	March 2–4, 2012	Barack Obama	54%	Ron Paul	38%	16
		Barack Obama	58%	Rick Santorum	35%	23
		Barack Obama	60%	Newt Gingrich	32%	28
		Barack Obama	58%	Mitt Romney	35%	23
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.8% Sample size: 673	October 28–31, 2011	Barack Obama	55%	Michele Bachmann	35%	20
		Barack Obama	54%	Herman Cain	37%	17
		Barack Obama	55%	Newt Gingrich	35%	20
		Barack Obama	55%	Rick Perry	34%	21
		Barack Obama	49%	Mitt Romney	38%	11
Critical Insights Margin of error: ±4% Sample size: 600	October 18–23, 2011	Barack Obama	41%	Mitt Romney	40%	1
Critical Insights Margin of error: ±4% Sample size: 600	October 18–23, 2011	Barack Obama	46%	Rick Perry	32%	14
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±2.8% Sample size: 1,247	March 3–6, 2011	Barack Obama	53%	Newt Gingrich	37%	16
		Barack Obama	51%	Mike Huckabee	39%	12
		Barack Obama	57%	Sarah Palin	35%	22
		Barack Obama	49%	Mitt Romney	41%	8

Maryland

10 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 56%–43%
(Democratic in 2008) 61%–38%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.4% Sample size: 852	May 14-16, 2012	Barack Obama	58%	Mitt Romney	35%	23

Massachusetts

11 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 62%–37%
(Democratic in 2008) 62%–36%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Suffolk University Margin of error: ±% Sample size: 600	May 20-22, 2012	Barack Obama	59%	Mitt Romney	34%	25
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	May 7, 2012	Barack Obama	56%	Mitt Romney	35%	21
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	April 9, 2012	Barack Obama	51%	Mitt Romney	40%	11
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.2% Sample size: 936	March 16–18, 2012	Barack Obama	62%	Newt Gingrich	28%	34
		Barack Obama	58%	Ron Paul	30%	28
		Barack Obama	58%	Mitt Romney	35%	23
		Barack Obama	61%	Rick Santorum	29%	32
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	February 11–15, 2012	Barack Obama	55%	Mitt Romney	38%	17
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	February 11–15, 2012	Barack Obama	58%	Rick Santorum	32%	26
Suffolk University Margin of error: ±4% Sample size: 600	February 11–15, 2012	Barack Obama	63%	Newt Gingrich	27%	36
		Barack Obama	53%	Mitt Romney	39%	14
		Barack Obama	59%	Rick Santorum	32%	27
		Barack Obama	60%	Ron Paul	26%	34
YouGov America/University of Massachusetts Amherst Margin of error: Varies Sample size: Varies^[1]	November 9–22, 2011	Barack Obama	54%	Rick Perry	23%	31
		Barack Obama	51%	Herman Cain	28%	23
		Barack Obama	49%	Mitt Romney	34%	15
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.5% Sample size: 791	September 16–18, 2011	Barack Obama	59%	Michele Bachmann	28%	31
		Barack Obama	58%	Newt Gingrich	31%	27
		Barack Obama	55%	Ron Paul	30%	25
		Barack Obama	58%	Rick Perry	32%	26
		Barack Obama	53%	Mitt Romney	40%	13
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.2% Sample size: 957	June 2–5, 2011	Barack Obama	60%	Herman Cain	27%	33
		Barack Obama	63%	Newt Gingrich	27%	36
		Barack Obama	63%	Sarah Palin	27%	36
		Barack Obama	59%	Tim Pawlenty	28%	31
		Barack Obama	57%	Mitt Romney	37%	20
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.4% Sample size: 500	November 29 – December 1, 2010	Barack Obama	57%	Newt Gingrich	33%	24
		Barack Obama	57%	Mike Huckabee	33%	24
		Barack Obama	61%	Sarah Palin	32%	29
		Barack Obama	52%	Mitt Romney	43%	9

Michigan

16 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 51%–48%
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–41%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Glengariff Group Margin of error: ±4% Sample size: 600	May 10–11, 2012	Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	40%	5
EPIC-MRA Margin of error: ±4% Sample size: 600	March 31 – April 3, 2012	Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	43%	4
NBC News/Marist College Margin of error: ±1.8% Sample size: 3,149	February 19–20, 2012	Barack Obama	55%	Rick Santorum	29%	26
		Barack Obama	56%	Newt Gingrich	28%	28
		Barack Obama	53%	Ron Paul	31%	22
		Barack Obama	51%	Mitt Romney	33%	18
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.14% Sample size: 560	February 10–12, 2012	Barack Obama	50%	Rick Santorum	39%	11
		Barack Obama	56%	Newt Gingrich	34%	22
		Barack Obama	52%	Ron Paul	34%	18
		Barack Obama	54%	Mitt Romney	38%	16
Detroit Free Press/EPIC-MRA Margin of error: ±4% Sample size: 600	January 21–25, 2012	Barack Obama	51%	Newt Gingrich	38%	13
	January 21–25, 2012	Barack Obama	48%	Mitt Romney	40%	8
Detroit Free Press/EPIC-MRA Margin of error: ±4% Sample size: 600	November 13–16, 2011	Barack Obama	41%	Mitt Romney	46%	5
		Barack Obama	45%	Newt Gingrich	40%	5
		Barack Obama	50%	Herman Cain	36%	14
Survey USA Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	October 12–14, 2011	Barack Obama	56%	Michele Bachmann	30%	26
		Barack Obama	53%	Herman Cain	32%	21
		Barack Obama	54%	Newt Gingrich	31%	23
		Barack Obama	53%	Rick Perry	32%	21
		Barack Obama	50%	Mitt Romney	39%	11
Inside Michigan/MRG Margin of error: ±4.0% Sample size: 600	Sept 14–19, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Rick Perry	39%	11
Inside Michigan/MRG Margin of error: ±4.0% Sample size: 600	Sept 14–19, 2011	Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	44%	Tied
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.0% Sample size: 593	July 21–24, 2011	Barack Obama	53%	Michele Bachmann	37%	16
		Barack Obama	50%	Herman Cain	33%	17
		Barack Obama	54%	Sarah Palin	36%	18
		Barack Obama	50%	Rick Perry	35%	15
		Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	42%	5
		Barack Obama	50%	Thaddeus McCotter	31%	19
EPIC-MRA Margin of error: ±4% Sample size: 600	July 9–11, 2011	Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	46%	4
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.4% Sample size: 502	March 18–20, 2011	Barack Obama	53%	Newt Gingrich	37%	16
		Barack Obama	50%	Mike Huckabee	41%	9
		Barack Obama	55%	Sarah Palin	35%	20
		Barack Obama	48%	Mitt Romney	41%	7
		Barack Obama	52%	Scott Walker	32%	20
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±2.8% Sample size: 1224	December 3–6, 2010	Barack Obama	52%	Newt Gingrich	37%	15
		Barack Obama	51%	Mike Huckabee	39%	12
		Barack Obama	56%	Sarah Palin	35%	21
		Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	43%	4
		Barack Obama	49%	Rick Snyder	38%	11

Minnesota

10 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 51%–48%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–44%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Survey USA Margin of error: ±4.4% Sample size: 516	May 9-10, 2012	Barack Obama	52%	Mitt Romney	38%	14
Survey USA Margin of error: ±4.3% Sample size: 542	January 31 – February 2, 2012	Barack Obama	49%	Mitt Romney	36%	13
		Barack Obama	55%	Newt Gingrich	29%	26
		Barack Obama	48%	Ron Paul	37%	11
		Barack Obama	51%	Rick Santorum	32%	19
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±2.8% Sample size: 1,236	January 21–22, 2012	Barack Obama	54%	Newt Gingrich	39%	15
		Barack Obama	52%	Rick Santorum	40%	12
		Barack Obama	51%	Ron Paul	38%	13
		Barack Obama	51%	Mitt Romney	41%	10
Survey USA Margin of error: ±4.3% Sample size: 543	November 2–6, 2011	Barack Obama	57%	Michele Bachmann	29%	28
		Barack Obama	48%	Herman Cain	35%	13
		Barack Obama	48%	Rick Perry	35%	13
		Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	39%	6
Survey USA Margin of error: ±4.2% Sample size: 558	June 15–17, 2011	Barack Obama	53%	Michele Bachmann	39%	14
Survey USA Margin of error: ±4.2% Sample size: 558	June 15–17, 2011	Barack Obama	46%	Tim Pawlenty	46%	Tied
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±2.9% Sample size: 1,179	May 27–30, 2011	Barack Obama	56%	Michele Bachmann	35%	21
		Barack Obama	51%	Herman Cain	30%	21
		Barack Obama	54%	Newt Gingrich	36%	18
		Barack Obama	56%	Sarah Palin	36%	20
		Barack Obama	51%	Tim Pawlenty	43%	8
		Barack Obama	51%	Mitt Romney	36%	15
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.2% Sample size: 949	December 4–5, 2010	Barack Obama	51%	Newt Gingrich	38%	13
		Barack Obama	50%	Mike Huckabee	40%	10
		Barack Obama	54%	Sarah Palin	36%	18
		Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	42%	5
		Barack Obama	51%	Tim Pawlenty	43%	8
St. Cloud State University Survey Margin of error: ±5% Sample size: 550	October 24 – November 4, 2009	Barack Obama	49%	Tim Pawlenty	40%	9
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±2.5% Sample size: 1,491	July 7–8, 2009	Barack Obama	56%	Sarah Palin	35%	21
	July 7–8, 2009	Barack Obama	51%	Tim Pawlenty	40%	11

Mississippi

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 59%–40%
(Republican in 2008) 56%–43%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.5% Sample size: 796	November 4–6, 2011	Barack Obama	40%	Michele Bachmann	52%	12
		Barack Obama	37%	Herman Cain	54%	17
		Barack Obama	38%	Newt Gingrich	54%	16
		Barack Obama	37%	Ron Paul	52%	15
		Barack Obama	38%	Rick Perry	55%	17
		Barack Obama	36%	Mitt Romney	54%	18
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.4% Sample size: 817	March 24–27, 2011	Barack Obama	42%	Newt Gingrich	48%	6
		Barack Obama	40%	Mike Huckabee	54%	14
		Barack Obama	44%	Sarah Palin	48%	4
		Barack Obama	40%	Mitt Romney	46%	6
		Barack Obama	41%	Haley Barbour	51%	10

Missouri

10 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 53%–46%
(Republican in 2008) 49%–49%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	April 17, 2012	Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	48%	3
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	March 14–15, 2012	Barack Obama	42%	Rick Santorum	51%	9
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	March 14–15, 2012	Barack Obama	41%	Mitt Romney	50%	9
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.1% Sample size: 582	January 27–29, 2012	Barack Obama	49%	Newt Gingrich	42%	7
		Barack Obama	45%	Ron Paul	43%	2
		Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	45%	Tied
		Barack Obama	47%	Rick Santorum	44%	3
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	November 9, 2011	Barack Obama	47%	Herman Cain	39%	8
		Barack Obama	47%	Rick Perry	43%	4
		Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	45%	3
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.9% Sample size: 632	September 9–12, 2011	Barack Obama	47%	Michele Bachmann	43%	4
		Barack Obama	47%	Newt Gingrich	45%	2
		Barack Obama	45%	Rick Perry	47%	2
		Barack Obama	43%	Mitt Romney	47%	4
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.9% Sample size: 555	April 28 – May 1, 2011	Barack Obama	46%	Newt Gingrich	44%	2
		Barack Obama	44%	Mike Huckabee	49%	5
		Barack Obama	48%	Sarah Palin	43%	5
		Barack Obama	43%	Mitt Romney	45%	2
		Barack Obama	46%	Donald Trump	41%	5
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.0% Sample size: 612	March 3–6, 2011	Barack Obama	44%	Newt Gingrich	44%	Tied
		Barack Obama	43%	Mike Huckabee	49%	6
		Barack Obama	48%	Sarah Palin	43%	5
		Barack Obama	43%	Mitt Romney	44%	1
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.3% Sample size: 515	November 29 – December 1, 2010	Barack Obama	44%	Newt Gingrich	45%	1
		Barack Obama	42%	Mike Huckabee	49%	7
		Barack Obama	46%	Sarah Palin	43%	3
		Barack Obama	41%	Mitt Romney	47%	6

Montana

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 59%–39%
(Republican in 2008) 49%–47%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±5.0% Sample size: 450	May 2, 2012	Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	51%	7
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.2% Sample size: 934	April 26-29, 2012	Barack Obama	43%	Mitt Romney	48%	5
		Barack Obama	41%	Ron Paul	49%	8
		Barack Obama	45%	Newt Gingrich	45%	Tie
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	February 22, 2012	Barack Obama	41%	Mitt Romney	48%	7
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	February 22, 2012	Barack Obama	41%	Rick Santorum	45%	4
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±2.4% Sample size: 1,625	November 28–30, 2011	Barack Obama	43%	Herman Cain	45%	2
		Barack Obama	42%	Newt Gingrich	50%	8
		Barack Obama	40%	Ron Paul	48%	8
		Barack Obama	40%	Mitt Romney	50%	10
		Barack Obama	43%	Rick Perry	46%	3
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.4% Sample size: 819	June 16–19, 2011	Barack Obama	42%	Michele Bachmann	48%	6
		Barack Obama	41%	Herman Cain	46%	5
		Barack Obama	44%	Sarah Palin	48%	4
		Barack Obama	41%	Tim Pawlenty	45%	4
		Barack Obama	41%	Mitt Romney	49%	8
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±2.9% Sample size: 1,176	November 10–13, 2010	Barack Obama	44%	Newt Gingrich	46%	2
		Barack Obama	41%	Mike Huckabee	51%	10
		Barack Obama	45%	Sarah Palin	47%	2
		Barack Obama	39%	Mitt Romney	50%	11

Nebraska

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 66%–33%
(Republican in 2008) 57%–42%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	May 16, 2012	Barack Obama	39%	Mitt Romney	53%	14
Public Policy Polling (Statewide) Margin of error: ±3.1% Sample size: 1,028	March 22–25, 2012	Barack Obama	39%	Mitt Romney	51%	12
		Barack Obama	38%	Rick Santorum	55%	17
		Barack Obama	40%	Newt Gingrich	49%	9
		Barack Obama	37%	Ron Paul	49%	12
Public Policy Polling (2nd Congressional District) Margin of error: ±3.1% Sample size: 1,028	March 22–25, 2012	Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	46%	1
		Barack Obama	47%	Rick Santorum	47%	Tied
		Barack Obama	46%	Newt Gingrich	44%	2
		Barack Obama	42%	Ron Paul	44%	2
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	March 5, 2012	Barack Obama	35%	Mitt Romney	52%	17
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	March 5, 2012	Barack Obama	37%	Rick Santorum	49%	12
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.6% Sample size: 739	September 30 – October 2, 2011	Barack Obama	41%	Michele Bachmann	49%	8
		Barack Obama	41%	Newt Gingrich	48%	7
		Barack Obama	41%	Rick Perry	48%	7
		Barack Obama	38%	Mitt Romney	51%	13
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.1% Sample size: 977	January 26–27, 2011	Barack Obama	40%	Newt Gingrich	48%	8
		Barack Obama	38%	Mike Huckabee	51%	13
		Barack Obama	44%	Sarah Palin	45%	1
		Barack Obama	37%	Mitt Romney	49%	12

Nevada

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 51%–48%
(Democratic in 2008) 55%–43%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	April 30, 2012	Barack Obama	52%	Mitt Romney	44%	8
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.2% Sample size: 553	March 29 – April 1, 2012	Barack Obama	51%	Mitt Romney	43%	8
		Barack Obama	54%	Rick Santorum	40%	14
		Barack Obama	49%	Ron Paul	42%	7
		Barack Obama	54%	Newt Gingrich	39%	15
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	March 19, 2012	Barack Obama	50%	Mitt Romney	44%	6
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	March 19, 2012	Barack Obama	52%	Rick Santorum	36%	16
Las Vegas Review Journal/University of Nevada Margin of error: ±4% Sample size: 600	December 12–20, 2011	Barack Obama	45.7%	Mitt Romney	39.8%	5.9
		Barack Obama	45.4%	Ron Paul	35.7%	9.7
		Barack Obama	47.3%	Newt Gingrich	35.4%	11.9
		Barack Obama	50.2%	Michele Bachmann	27.1%	23.1
		Barack Obama	48.8%	Jon Huntsman	30.1%	18.7
		Barack Obama	50.8%	Rick Perry	31.1%	19.7
		Barack Obama	49.3%	Rick Santorum	30.9%	18.4
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.4% Sample size: 500	October 20–23, 2011	Barack Obama	49%	Michele Bachmann	41%	8
		Barack Obama	49%	Herman Cain	46%	3
		Barack Obama	49%	Newt Gingrich	46%	3
		Barack Obama	51%	Rick Perry	41%	10
		Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	46%	Tied
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.0% Sample size: 601	July 28–31, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Michele Bachmann	40%	10
		Barack Obama	48%	Herman Cain	39%	9
		Barack Obama	51%	Sarah Palin	39%	12
		Barack Obama	49%	Rick Perry	40%	9
		Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	46%	1
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.4% Sample size: 491	April 21–24, 2011	Barack Obama	46%	Newt Gingrich	42%	4
		Barack Obama	45%	Mike Huckabee	43%	2
		Barack Obama	50%	Sarah Palin	39%	11
		Barack Obama	43%	Mitt Romney	46%	3
		Barack Obama	47%	Donald Trump	41%	6
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.2% Sample size: 932	January 3–5, 2011	Barack Obama	51%	Newt Gingrich	40%	11
		Barack Obama	51%	Mike Huckabee	41%	10
		Barack Obama	52%	Sarah Palin	39%	13
		Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	46%	1

New Hampshire

4 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 50%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–45%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±2.9% Sample size: 1,163	May 10-13, 2012	Barack Obama	53%	Mitt Romney	41%	12
WMUR/University of New Hampshire Margin of error: ±4.4% Sample size: 486	April 9-20, 2012	Barack Obama	51%	Mitt Romney	42%	9
Dartmouth College Margin of error: ±4.9% Sample size: 403	April 2–5, 2012	Barack Obama	42.4%	Mitt Romney	43.9%	1.5
WMUR Granite State Margin of error: ±4.3% Sample size: 527	January 25 – February 2, 2012	Barack Obama	50%	Mitt Romney	40%	10
		Barack Obama	50%	Ron Paul	42%	8
		Barack Obama	60%	Newt Gingrich	35%	25
		Barack Obama	56%	Rick Santorum	35%	21
NBC News/Marist College Margin of error: ±2.9% Sample size: 1,144	November 28–30, 2011	Barack Obama	51%	Rick Perry	36%	15
		Barack Obama	43%	Mitt Romney	46%	3
		Barack Obama	53%	Michele Bachmann	33%	20
		Barack Obama	49%	Newt Gingrich	39%	10
		Barack Obama	53%	Herman Cain	30%	23
		Barack Obama	44%	Ron Paul	42%	2
University of New Hampshire/WMUR Margin of error: ±3.8% Sample size: 665	November 15–20, 2011
		Barack Obama	54%	Rick Perry	35%	19
		Barack Obama	52%	Newt Gingrich	40%	12
		Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	47%	3
NBC News-Marist Poll Margin of error: ±2.1% Sample size: 2,218	October 3–5, 2011	Barack Obama	46%	Rick Perry	40%	6
	October 3–5, 2011	Barack Obama	40%	Mitt Romney	49%	9
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.8% Sample size: 662	June 30 – July 5, 2011
		Barack Obama	49%	Michele Bachmann	42%	7
		Barack Obama	49%	Herman Cain	39%	10
		Barack Obama	53%	Sarah Palin	38%	15
		Barack Obama	48%	Tim Pawlenty	41%	7
		Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	46%	2
New Hampshire University Margin of error: ±3.5% Sample size: 773	June 21 – July 1, 2011	Barack Obama	43%	Mitt Romney	47%	4
		Barack Obama	47%	Tim Pawlenty	38%	11
		Barack Obama	47%	Michele Bachmann	41%	6
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.5% Sample size: 769	March 31 – April 3, 2011	Barack Obama	52%	Newt Gingrich	39%	13
		Barack Obama	52%	Mike Huckabee	38%	14
		Barack Obama	56%	Sarah Palin	34%	22
		Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	46%	1
		Barack Obama	51%	Donald Trump	37%	14
Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies Margin of error: ±3.49% Sample size: 789	February 9–10, 2011	Barack Obama	48%	Mitt Romney	44%	4
		Barack Obama	57%	Sarah Palin	34%	23
		Barack Obama	51%	Mike Huckabee	38%	13
		Barack Obama	56%	Newt Gingrich	33%	23

New Jersey

14 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 52%–46%
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–42%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.5% Sample size: 1,582	May 9-14, 2012	Barack Obama	49%	Mitt Romney	39%	10
Fairleigh Dickinson University Margin of error: ±3.5% Sample size: 797	April 30, 2012 - May 6, 2012	Barack Obama	50%	Mitt Romney	36%	14
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.4% Sample size: 1,607	April 3–9, 2012	Barack Obama	49%	Mitt Romney	40%	9
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.4% Sample size: 1,607	April 3–9, 2012	Barack Obama	51%	Rick Santorum	36%	15
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.6% Sample size: 1,396	February 21–27, 2012	Barack Obama	49%	Mitt Romney	39%	10
		Barack Obama	55%	Newt Gingrich	30%	25
		Barack Obama	52%	Rick Santorum	34%	18
Survey USA Margin of error: ±4.3% Sample size: 533	February 24–26, 2012	Barack Obama	52%	Mitt Romney	38%	14
		Barack Obama	61%	Newt Gingrich	27%	34
		Barack Obama	57%	Rick Santorum	33%	24
		Barack Obama	56%	Ron Paul	31%	25
Rutgers-Eagleton Institute of Politics Margin of error: ±3.3% Sample size: 914	February 9-11 2012	Barack Obama	56%	Mitt Romney	31%	25
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.6% Sample size: 1,460	January 10–16 2012	Barack Obama	48%	Mitt Romney	38%	10
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.3% Sample size: 520	January 6–9, 2011
		Barack Obama	55%	Chris Christie	38%	17
		Barack Obama	54%	Newt Gingrich	37%	17
		Barack Obama	53%	Mike Huckabee	36%	17
		Barack Obama	59%	Sarah Palin	29%	30
		Barack Obama	52%	Mitt Romney	37%	15

New Mexico

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 50%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–42%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.3% Sample size: 526	April 19-22, 2012	Barack Obama	54%	Mitt Romney	40%	14
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	April 3, 2012	Barack Obama	53%	Rick Santorum	38%	15
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	April 3, 2012	Barack Obama	52%	Mitt Romney	36%	16
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	February 14, 2012	Barack Obama	55%	Rick Santorum	37%	18
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	February 14, 2012	Barack Obama	55%	Mitt Romney	36%	19
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.4% Sample size: 500	December 11–13, 2011
		Barack Obama	56%	Newt Gingrich	39%	17
		Barack Obama	56%	Michele Bachmann	36%	20
		Barack Obama	51%	Ron Paul	38%	13
		Barack Obama	53%	Mitt Romney	38%	15
		Barack Obama	56%	Rick Perry	35%	21
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.6% Sample size: 732	June 23–26, 2011
		Barack Obama	52%	Michele Bachmann	37%	15
		Barack Obama	52%	Herman Cain	36%	16
		Barack Obama	56%	Sarah Palin	36%	20
		Barack Obama	51%	Tim Pawlenty	36%	15
		Barack Obama	49%	Mitt Romney	42%	7
		Barack Obama	46%	Gary Johnson	43%	3
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.2% Sample size: 545	February 4–6, 2011
		Barack Obama	56%	Newt Gingrich	35%	21
		Barack Obama	55%	Mike Huckabee	36%	19
		Barack Obama	62%	Sarah Palin	33%	29
		Barack Obama	53%	Mitt Romney	37%	16
		Barack Obama	51%	Gary Johnson	36%	15

New York

29 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 58%–40%
(Democratic in 2008) 63%–36%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Siena College Margin of error: ±3.5% Sample size: 766	May 6-10, 2012	Barack Obama	57%	Mitt Romney	37%	20
NY1/YNN-Marist Margin of error: ±4% Sample size: 632	April 10–12, 2012	Barack Obama	57%	Mitt Romney	35%	22
Siena College Margin of error: ±3.4% Sample size: 808	April 1–4, 2012	Barack Obama	65%	Newt Gingrich	29%	36
		Barack Obama	61%	Ron Paul	31%	30
		Barack Obama	60%	Mitt Romney	35%	25
		Barack Obama	62%	Rick Santorum	23%	39
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.5% Sample size: 1,597	March 28 – April 2, 2012	Barack Obama	56%	Mitt Romney	33%	23
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.5% Sample size: 1,597	March 28 – April 2, 2012	Barack Obama	59%	Rick Santorum	30%	29
Siena College Margin of error: ±3.4% Sample size: 808	February 26–29, 2012	Barack Obama	60%	Mitt Romney	34%	26
		Barack Obama	64%	Rick Santorum	30%	34
		Barack Obama	62%	Ron Paul	29%	33
		Barack Obama	66%	Newt Gingrich	27%	39
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.8% Sample size: 1,233	February 8–13, 2012	Barack Obama	52%	Mitt Romney	35%	17
		Barack Obama	57%	Newt Gingrich	31%	26
		Barack Obama	53%	Rick Santorum	35%	18
Siena College Margin of error: ±3.5% Sample size: 803	November 8–13, 2011	Barack Obama	63%	Herman Cain	27%	36
		Barack Obama	63%	Rick Perry	28%	35
		Barack Obama	59%	Mitt Romney	34%	25
		Barack Obama	64%	Michele Bachmann	27%	37
		Barack Obama	60%	Ron Paul	31%	29
Marist College Margin of error: ±3% Sample size: 1,030	October 25–27, 2011	Barack Obama	62%	Herman Cain	31%	31
		Barack Obama	64%	Rick Perry	29%	35
		Barack Obama	59%	Mitt Romney	35%	24
Siena College Margin of error: ±3.5% Sample size: 800	October 10–12, 2011	Barack Obama	58%	Herman Cain	32%	26
		Barack Obama	58%	Rick Perry	31%	27
		Barack Obama	55%	Mitt Romney	37%	18

North Carolina

15 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 56%–44%
(Democratic in 2008) 50%–49%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Survey USA Margin of error: ±4.4% Sample size: 524	May 18-21, 2012	Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	45%	1
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	May 14, 2012	Barack Obama	43%	Mitt Romney	51%	8
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.8% Sample size: 666	May 10-13, 2012	Barack Obama	48%	Mitt Romney	47%	1
Survey USA Margin of error: ±2.5% Sample size: 1,636	April 26-30, 2012	Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	43%	4
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	April 10, 2012	Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	46%	2
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.1% Sample size: 975	April 4–7, 2012	Barack Obama	51%	Newt Gingrich	41%	10
		Barack Obama	48%	Ron Paul	43%	5
		Barack Obama	49%	Mitt Romney	44%	5
		Barack Obama	50%	Rick Santorum	44%	6
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.5% Sample size: 804	March 8–11, 2012	Barack Obama	51%	Newt Gingrich	42%	9
		Barack Obama	48%	Ron Paul	41%	7
		Barack Obama	49%	Mitt Romney	46%	3
		Barack Obama	49%	Rick Santorum	44%	5
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.5% Sample size: 1,052	February 3–5, 2012	Barack Obama	50%	Newt Gingrich	45%	5
		Barack Obama	47%	Ron Paul	41%	6
		Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	46%	1
		Barack Obama	48%	Rick Santorum	46%	2
Civitas Institute Margin of error: ±4% Sample size: 300	January 9-11, 2012	Barack Obama	39%	Mitt Romney	48%	9
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.5% Sample size: 780	January 5–8, 2012	Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	45%	1
		Barack Obama	49%	Newt Gingrich	43%	6
		Barack Obama	47%	Ron Paul	41%	6
		Barack Obama	49%	Rick Perry	41%	8
		Barack Obama	46%	Rick Santorum	46%	Tied
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.3% Sample size: 865	December 1–4, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Herman Cain	37%	13
		Barack Obama	49%	Newt Gingrich	45%	4
		Barack Obama	47%	Ron Paul	42%	5
		Barack Obama	50%	Rick Perry	42%	8
		Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	46%	Tied
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4% Sample size: 615	October 27–31, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Michele Bachmann	42%	8
		Barack Obama	47%	Herman Cain	44%	3
		Barack Obama	50%	Newt Gingrich	43%	7
		Barack Obama	48%	Ron Paul	40%	8
		Barack Obama	50%	Rick Perry	42%	8
		Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	46%	1
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.6% Sample size: 760	September 30 – October 3, 2011	Barack Obama	49%	Michele Bachmann	42%	7
		Barack Obama	45%	Chris Christie	46%	1
		Barack Obama	49%	Newt Gingrich	42%	7
		Barack Obama	46%	Ron Paul	43%	3
		Barack Obama	48%	Rick Perry	44%	4
		Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	45%	1
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.3% Sample size: 520	September 1–4, 2011	Barack Obama	47%	Michele Bachmann	45%	2
		Barack Obama	48%	Newt Gingrich	43%	5
		Barack Obama	49%	Sarah Palin	42%	7
		Barack Obama	46%	Rick Perry	46%	Tied
		Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	44%	1
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.5% Sample size: 780	August 4–7, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Michele Bachmann	40%	10
		Barack Obama	50%	Herman Cain	37%	13
		Barack Obama	52%	Sarah Palin	39%	13
		Barack Obama	48%	Rick Perry	40%	8
		Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	43%	3
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.8% Sample size: 651	July 7–10, 2011	Barack Obama	46%	Michele Bachmann	43%	3
		Barack Obama	46%	Herman Cain	42%	4
		Barack Obama	50%	Sarah Palin	42%	8
		Barack Obama	46%	Tim Pawlenty	41%	5
		Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	45%	Tied
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.1% Sample size: 563	June 8–11, 2011	Barack Obama	48%	Herman Cain	37%	11
		Barack Obama	50%	Newt Gingrich	40%	10
		Barack Obama	52%	Sarah Palin	38%	14
		Barack Obama	47%	Tim Pawlenty	40%	7
		Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	44%	1
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.4% Sample size: 835	May 12–15, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Newt Gingrich	42%	8
		Barack Obama	47%	Mike Huckabee	46%	1
		Barack Obama	52%	Sarah Palin	40%	12
		Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	43%	3
		Barack Obama	52%	Donald Trump	35%	17
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.4% Sample size: 507	April 14–17, 2011	Barack Obama	49%	Newt Gingrich	45%	4
		Barack Obama	48%	Mike Huckabee	47%	1
		Barack Obama	52%	Sarah Palin	40%	12
		Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	44%	3
		Barack Obama	51%	Donald Trump	39%	12
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.1% Sample size: 584	March 17–20, 2011	Barack Obama	47%	Newt Gingrich	42%	5
		Barack Obama	45%	Mike Huckabee	45%	Tied
		Barack Obama	51%	Sarah Palin	40%	11
		Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	42%	2
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.8% Sample size: 650	February 16–21, 2011	Barack Obama	48%	Newt Gingrich	44%	4
		Barack Obama	46%	Mike Huckabee	47%	1
		Barack Obama	51%	Sarah Palin	41%	10
		Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	44%	3
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.1% Sample size: 575	January 20–23, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Newt Gingrich	44%	6
		Barack Obama	49%	Mike Huckabee	45%	4
		Barack Obama	50%	Sarah Palin	41%	9
		Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	44%	3
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.3% Sample size: 520	December 17–19, 2010	Barack Obama	48%	Newt Gingrich	42%	6
		Barack Obama	45%	Mike Huckabee	46%	1
		Barack Obama	52%	Sarah Palin	38%	14
		Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	43%	3
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.3% Sample size: 517	November 19–21, 2010	Barack Obama	46%	Newt Gingrich	45%	1
		Barack Obama	44%	Mike Huckabee	48%	4
		Barack Obama	48%	Sarah Palin	43%	5
		Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	44%	Tied
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.5% Sample size: 767	July 10–12, 2009	Barack Obama	49%	Sarah Palin	42%	7

Ohio

18 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 51%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 52%–47%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
NBC News/Marist Margin of error: ±3.0% Sample size: 1,103RV	May 17-20, 2012	Barack Obama	48%	Mitt Romney	42%	6
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±3% Sample size: 1,069	May 2-7, 2012	Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	44%	1
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.3% Sample size: 875	May 3-6, 2012	Barack Obama	48%	Ron Paul	40%	8
	May 3-6, 2012	Barack Obama	50%	Mitt Romney	43%	7
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.9% Sample size: 1,130	April 25 - May 1, 2012	Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	42%	2
Purple Poll Margin of error: ±4.1% Sample size: 1,705	April 19–23, 2012	Barack Obama	49%	Mitt Romney	44%	5
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	April 18, 2012	Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	42%	4
Fox News Anderson Robbins Shaw & Co. Margin of error: ±4% Sample size: 606	April 15-17, 2012	Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	39%	6
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	March 26, 2012	Barack Obama	48%	Mitt Romney	40%	8
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	March 26, 2012	Barack Obama	47%	Rick Santorum	41%	6
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.8% Sample size: 1,246	March 20–26, 2012	Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	41%	6
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.8% Sample size: 1,246	March 20–26, 2012	Barack Obama	47%	Rick Santorum	40%	7
NBC News/Marist Margin of error: ±2.5% Sample size: Varies^[2]	February 29 – March 2, 2012	Barack Obama	50%	Mitt Romney	38%	12
		Barack Obama	51%	Newt Gingrich	36%	15
		Barack Obama	48%	Ron Paul	38%	10
		Barack Obama	50%	Rick Santorum	36%	14
Fox News Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 505	February 11–13, 2012	Barack Obama	38%	Mitt Romney	44%	6
		Barack Obama	43%	Newt Gingrich	37%	6
		Barack Obama	40%	Rick Santorum	43%	3
		Barack Obama	41%	Ron Paul	42%	1
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.6% Sample size: 1,421	February 7–12, 2012	Barack Obama	50%	Newt Gingrich	38%	12
		Barack Obama	47%	Rick Santorum	41%	6
		Barack Obama	46%	Ron Paul	40%	6
		Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	44%	2
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	February 8, 2012	Barack Obama	44%	Rick Santorum	44%	Tied
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	February 8, 2012	Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	41%	4
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.4% Sample size: 820	January 28–29, 2012	Barack Obama	48%	Rick Santorum	42%	6
		Barack Obama	51%	Newt Gingrich	39%	12
		Barack Obama	48%	Ron Paul	38%	10
		Barack Obama	49%	Mitt Romney	42%	7
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.4% Sample size: 1,610	January 9–16, 2012	Barack Obama	48%	Rick Santorum	37%	11
		Barack Obama	52%	Newt Gingrich	38%	14
		Barack Obama	48%	Ron Paul	39%	9
		Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	42%	2
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.6% Sample size: 1,437	November 28 – December 5, 2011	Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	43%	1
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.6% Sample size: 1,437	November 28 – December 5, 2011	Barack Obama	42%	Newt Gingrich	43%	1
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.7% Sample size: 1,312	October 31 – November 7, 2011	Barack Obama	48%	Herman Cain	38%	10
		Barack Obama	49%	Newt Gingrich	37%	12
		Barack Obama	48%	Rick Perry	36%	12
		Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	42%	3
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.1% Sample size: 1,022	November 4–6, 2011	Barack Obama	51%	Michele Bachmann	37%	14
		Barack Obama	50%	Herman Cain	39%	11
		Barack Obama	51%	Newt Gingrich	38%	13
		Barack Obama	50%	Ron Paul	36%	14
		Barack Obama	53%	Rick Perry	36%	17
		Barack Obama	50%	Mitt Romney	41%	9
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.4% Sample size: 1,668	October 17–23, 2011	Barack Obama	47%	Rick Perry	36%	11
		Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	41%	4
		Barack Obama	47%	Herman Cain	39%	8
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.1% Sample size: 581	October 13–16, 2011	Barack Obama	49%	Michele Bachmann	40%	9
		Barack Obama	48%	Herman Cain	45%	3
		Barack Obama	51%	Newt Gingrich	40%	11
		Barack Obama	50%	Rick Perry	41%	9
		Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	46%	Tied
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.7% Sample size: 1,301	September 22–25, 2011	Barack Obama	44%	Rick Perry	41%	3
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.7% Sample size: 1,301	September 22–25, 2011	Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	42%	2
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.5% Sample size: 792	August 11–14, 2011	Barack Obama	48%	Michele Bachmann	41%	7
		Barack Obama	47%	Herman Cain	39%	8
		Barack Obama	51%	Sarah Palin	38%	13
		Barack Obama	45%	Rick Perry	41%	4
		Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	43%	2
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±4.1% Sample size: 563	July 12–18, 2011	Barack Obama	49%	Michele Bachmann	36%	13
		Barack Obama	51%	Sarah Palin	35%	16
		Barack Obama	47%	Rick Perry	35%	12
		Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	41%	4
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.1% Sample size: 559	March 10–13, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Newt Gingrich	38%	12
		Barack Obama	48%	Mike Huckabee	41%	7
		Barack Obama	52%	Sarah Palin	36%	16
		Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	40%	6
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.3% Sample size: 510	December 10–12, 2010	Barack Obama	47%	Newt Gingrich	41%	6
		Barack Obama	45%	Mike Huckabee	44%	1
		Barack Obama	49%	Sarah Palin	42%	7
		Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	42%	2

Oklahoma

7 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 65.6%–34.4%
(Republican in 2008) 65.7%–34.4%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
SoonerPoll Margin of error: ±4.4% Sample size: 504 LV	May 7–10, 2012	Barack Obama	27%	Mitt Romney	62%	35

Oregon

7 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 51%–47%
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–40%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Survey USA Margin of error: ±2.6% Sample size: 1,468	May 7–10, 2012	Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	43%	4
Survey USA Margin of error: ±4.6% Sample size: 1,615	March 14–19, 2012	Barack Obama	50%	Mitt Romney	39%	11
		Barack Obama	54%	Newt Gingrich	34%	20
		Barack Obama	49%	Rick Santorum	40%	9
		Barack Obama	48%	Ron Paul	39%	9
Public Policy Polling/Daily Kos/SEIU Margin of error: ±3.1% Sample size: 979	December 13–14, 2011	Barack Obama	55%	Newt Gingrich	37%	18
	December 13–14, 2011	Barack Obama	53%	Mitt Romney	40%	13
Survey USA Margin of error: ±4.4% Sample size: 528	November 18–21, 2011	Barack Obama	51%	Newt Gingrich	37%	14
Survey USA Margin of error: ±4.4% Sample size: 528	November 18–21, 2011	Barack Obama	48%	Mitt Romney	40%	8
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.7% Sample size: 701	June 19–21, 2011	Barack Obama	53%	Michele Bachmann	35%	18
		Barack Obama	53%	Herman Cain	32%	21
		Barack Obama	57%	Sarah Palin	35%	22
		Barack Obama	52%	Tim Pawlenty	34%	18
		Barack Obama	50%	Mitt Romney	38%	12

Pennsylvania

20 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 51%–48%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–44%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	May 23, 2012	Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	41%	6
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.9% Sample size: 1,168	April 25 - May 1, 2012	Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	39%	8
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.8% Sample size: 1,232	March 20–26, 2012	Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	42%	3
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.8% Sample size: 1,232	March 20–26, 2012	Barack Obama	48%	Rick Santorum	41%	7
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.1% Sample size: 689	March 8–11, 2012	Barack Obama	49%	Mitt Romney	42%	7
		Barack Obama	51%	Newt Gingrich	39%	12
		Barack Obama	47%	Ron Paul	41%	6
		Barack Obama	48%	Rick Santorum	46%	2
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.8% Sample size: 1,256	March 7–11, 2012	Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	40%	6
		Barack Obama	50%	Newt Gingrich	37%	13
		Barack Obama	45%	Ron Paul	40%	5
		Barack Obama	45%	Rick Santorum	44%	1
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 438	February 8–23, 2012	Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	44%	1
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 438	February 8–23, 2012	Barack Obama	46%	Rick Santorum	40%	6
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Margin of error: ±4% Sample size: 625	February 15–21, 2012	Barack Obama	48%	Mitt Romney	37%	11
	February 15–21, 2012	Barack Obama	49%	Rick Santorum	41%	8
Franklin & Marshall College Margin of error: ±4% Sample size: 592	February 14–20, 2012	Barack Obama	41%	Mitt Romney	33%	8
		Barack Obama	47%	Newt Gingrich	31%	16
		Barack Obama	41%	Ron Paul	28%	13
		Barack Obama	45%	Rick Santorum	37%	8
Susquehanna Polling and Research Margin of error: ±3.46% Sample size: 800	February 2–6, 2012	Barack Obama	43%	Mitt Romney	45%	2
	February 2–6, 2012	Barack Obama	47%	Rick Santorum	43%	4
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Margin of error: ±5% Sample size: 447	November 28 – December 7, 2011	Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	41%	4
		Barack Obama	52%	Newt Gingrich	35%	17
		Barack Obama	48%	Rick Perry	30%	18
		Barack Obama	55%	Herman Cain	28%	27
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.6% Sample size: 1,453	November 28 – December 5, 2011	Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	43%	3
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.6% Sample size: 1,453	November 28 – December 5, 2011	Barack Obama	48%	Newt Gingrich	40%	8
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.4% Sample size: 500	November 17–20, 2011	Barack Obama	53%	Herman Cain	35%	18
		Barack Obama	49%	Newt Gingrich	43%	6
		Barack Obama	46%	Ron Paul	42%	4
		Barack Obama	51%	Rick Perry	38%	13
		Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	45%	Tied
		Barack Obama	47%	Rick Santorum	42%	5
Survey USA Margin of error: ±3.5% Sample size: 800	November 10, 2011	Barack Obama	47%	Newt Gingrich	40%	7
Survey USA Margin of error: ±3.5% Sample size: 800	November 10, 2011	Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	44%	Tied
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.6% Sample size: 1,436	October 31 – November 7, 2011	Barack Obama	48%	Herman Cain	38%	10
		Barack Obama	48%	Newt Gingrich	38%	10
		Barack Obama	47%	Rick Perry	38%	9
		Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	43%	1
Franklin & Marshall College Margin of error: ±4.3% Sample size: 525	October 24–30, 2011	Barack Obama	38%	Herman Cain	24%	14
		Barack Obama	40%	Rick Perry	20%	20
		Barack Obama	35%	Mitt Romney	26%	9
		Barack Obama	38%	Rick Santorum	25%	13
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.7% Sample size: 1,370	September 21–26, 2011	Barack Obama	46%	Rick Perry	40%	6
		Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	43%	2
		Barack Obama	45%	Rick Santorum	42%	3
Franklin & Marshall College Margin of error: ±4.3% Sample size: 525	August 22–29, 2011	Barack Obama	42%	Michele Bachmann	23%	19
		Barack Obama	38%	Rick Perry	27%	11
		Barack Obama	36%	Mitt Romney	30%	6
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.7% Sample size: 1,358	July 25–31, 2011	Barack Obama	47%	Michele Bachmann	39%	8
		Barack Obama	45%	Rick Perry	39%	6
		Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	44%	2
		Barack Obama	45%	Rick Santorum	43%	2
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.2% Sample size: 545	June 30 – July 5, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Michele Bachmann	43%	7
		Barack Obama	49%	Herman Cain	37%	12
		Barack Obama	53%	Sarah Palin	39%	14
		Barack Obama	47%	Tim Pawlenty	39%	8
		Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	44%	Tied
		Barack Obama	50%	Rick Santorum	40%	10
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.7% Sample size: 1,277	June 7–12, 2011	Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	40%	7
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.7% Sample size: 1,277	June 7–12, 2011	Barack Obama	49%	Rick Santorum	38%	11
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.0% Sample size: 593	April 7–10, 2011	Barack Obama	47%	Newt Gingrich	39%	8
		Barack Obama	45%	Mike Huckabee	44%	1
		Barack Obama	50%	Sarah Palin	39%	11
		Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	43%	1
		Barack Obama	45%	Rick Santorum	43%	2
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.2% Sample size: 547	January 3–5, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Newt Gingrich	40%	10
		Barack Obama	47%	Mike Huckabee	44%	3
		Barack Obama	51%	Sarah Palin	36%	15
		Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	42%	4
		Barack Obama	48%	Rick Santorum	40%	8

Rhode Island

4 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 59%–39%
(Democratic in 2008) 63%–35%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.2% Sample size: 544	February 16–22, 2011	Barack Obama	60%	Newt Gingrich	27%	33
		Barack Obama	56%	Mike Huckabee	31%	25
		Barack Obama	65%	Sarah Palin	24%	41
		Barack Obama	54%	Mitt Romney	37%	17

South Carolina

9 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 58%–41%
(Republican in 2008) 54%–45%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Reuters/Ipsos Margin of error: ±3.4% Sample size: 995	January 10–13, 2012	Barack Obama	40%	Mitt Romney	46%	6
NBC News/Marist College Margin of error: ±2.1% Sample size: 2,107	December 4–7, 2011	Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	42%	3
		Barack Obama	46%	Newt Gingrich	42%	4
		Barack Obama	47%	Ron Paul	37%	10
NBC News/Marist Margin of error: ±2.1% Sample size: 2,131	October 10–12, 2011
		Barack Obama	42%	Herman Cain	44%	2
		Barack Obama	42%	Rick Perry	43%	1
		Barack Obama	40%	Mitt Romney	46%	6
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.0% Sample size: 587	August 25–28, 2011	Barack Obama	44%	Michele Bachmann	44%	Tied
		Barack Obama	44%	Newt Gingrich	45%	1
		Barack Obama	45%	Sarah Palin	45%	Tied
		Barack Obama	41%	Rick Perry	49%	8
		Barack Obama	38%	Mitt Romney	53%	15
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.6% Sample size: 741	June 2–5, 2011	Barack Obama	43%	Herman Cain	40%	3
		Barack Obama	44%	Jim DeMint	47%	3
		Barack Obama	46%	Newt Gingrich	44%	2
		Barack Obama	48%	Sarah Palin	43%	5
		Barack Obama	42%	Tim Pawlenty	42%	Tied
		Barack Obama	41%	Mitt Romney	50%	9
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±2.9% Sample size: 1,167	January 28–30, 2011	Barack Obama	44%	Newt Gingrich	43%	1
		Barack Obama	43%	Mike Huckabee	49%	6
		Barack Obama	47%	Sarah Palin	41%	6
		Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	49%	7
		Barack Obama	45%	Jim DeMint	47%	2

South Dakota

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 60%–38%
(Republican in 2008) 53%–45%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.0% Sample size: 1,045	January 28–30, 2011	Barack Obama	44%	Newt Gingrich	42%	2
		Barack Obama	41%	Mike Huckabee	47%	6
		Barack Obama	48%	Sarah Palin	40%	8
		Barack Obama	40%	Mitt Romney	46%	6
		Barack Obama	37%	John Thune	57%	20

Tennessee

11 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 57%–43%
(Republican in 2008) 57%–42%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Vanderbilt University Margin of error: ±4% Sample size: 1,002 LV	May 2–9, 2012	Barack Obama	41%	Mitt Romney	42%	1
Vanderbilt University Margin of error: ±4% Sample size: 1,002 RV	May 2–9, 2012	Barack Obama	40%	Mitt Romney	47%	7
Middle TN State University Margin of error: ±4% Sample size: 416	February 13–25, 2012	Barack Obama	40%	Newt Gingrich	45%	4
		Barack Obama	41%	Ron Paul	44%	3
		Barack Obama	41%	Mitt Romney	47%	6
		Barack Obama	39%	Rick Santorum	51%	12
Vanderbilt University Margin of error: ±2.6% Sample size: 1,508	February 16–22, 2012	Barack Obama	41%	Newt Gingrich	38%	3
		Barack Obama	39%	Ron Paul	40%	1
		Barack Obama	39%	Mitt Romney	42%	3
		Barack Obama	38%	Rick Santorum	42%	4
Vanderbilt University Margin of error: ±2.6% Sample size: 1,423	October 28 – November 5, 2011	Barack Obama	39%	Rick Perry	40%	1
		Barack Obama	37%	Herman Cain	41%	4
		Barack Obama	38%	Mitt Romney	42%	4
Vanderbilt University Margin of error: ±3.7% Sample size: 700	June 3–8, 2011	Barack Obama	38%	Michele Bachmann	27%	11
		Barack Obama	38%	Newt Gingrich	26%	12
		Barack Obama	43%	Sarah Palin	29%	14
		Barack Obama	37%	Tim Pawlenty	28%	9
		Barack Obama	37%	Mitt Romney	35%	2
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.4% Sample size: 500	February 9–13, 2011	Barack Obama	43%	Newt Gingrich	46%	3
		Barack Obama	41%	Mike Huckabee	53%	12
		Barack Obama	45%	Sarah Palin	45%	Tied
		Barack Obama	41%	Mitt Romney	48%	7
Vanderbilt University Margin of error: ±3.3% Sample size: 710	January 14–16, 2011	Barack Obama	42%	Sarah Palin	37%	5

Texas

38 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 61%–38%
(Republican in 2008) 55%–44%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
University of Texas/Texas Tribune Margin of error: ±4.34 Sample size: 511	May 7-13, 2012	Barack Obama	35%	Mitt Romney	55%	20
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.0 Sample size: 491	April 19–22, 2012	Barack Obama	43%	Mitt Romney	50%	7
		Barack Obama	45%	Newt Gingrich	47%	2
		Barack Obama	43%	Ron Paul	47%	4
University of Texas/Texas Tribune Margin of error: Varies Sample size: Varies^[3]	January 12–15, 2012	Barack Obama	38%	Newt Gingrich	49%	11
		Barack Obama	36%	Mitt Romney	49%	13
		Barack Obama	37%	Rick Santorum	51%	14
		Barack Obama	35%	Ron Paul	44%	9
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.7% Sample size: 700	January 12–15, 2012	Barack Obama	47%	Newt Gingrich	45%	2
		Barack Obama	40%	Ron Paul	46%	6
		Barack Obama	47%	Rick Perry	48%	1
		Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	49%	7
		Barack Obama	42%	Rick Santorum	49%	7
University of Texas/Texas Tribune/YouGov Margin of error: ±3.46% Sample size: 800	October 19–26, 2011	Barack Obama	33%	Ron Paul	38%	5
		Barack Obama	35%	Herman Cain	40%	5
		Barack Obama	34%	Mitt Romney	36%	2
		Barack Obama	37%	Rick Perry	45%	8
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.5% Sample size: 795	June 25–27, 2011	Barack Obama	44%	Michele Bachmann	47%	3
		Barack Obama	43%	Herman Cain	43%	Tied
		Barack Obama	46%	Sarah Palin	44%	2
		Barack Obama	43%	Tim Pawlenty	44%	1
		Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	50%	8
		Barack Obama	40%	Ron Paul	45%	5
		Barack Obama	47%	Rick Perry	45%	2
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.3% Sample size: 892	January 14–16, 2011	Barack Obama	43%	Newt Gingrich	48%	5
		Barack Obama	39%	Mike Huckabee	55%	16
		Barack Obama	46%	Sarah Palin	47%	1
		Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	49%	7
		Barack Obama	45%	Rick Perry	45%	Tied
University of Texas Margin of error: ±3.22% Sample size: 924	June 11–22, 2009	Barack Obama	34%	Mitt Romney	39%	5

Utah

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 72%–26%
(Republican in 2008) 62%–34%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.6% Sample size: 732	July 8–10, 2011	Barack Obama	35%	Michele Bachmann	49%	14
		Barack Obama	36%	Herman Cain	43%	7
		Barack Obama	23%	Jon Huntsman	63%	40
		Barack Obama	41%	Sarah Palin	43%	2
		Barack Obama	34%	Tim Pawlenty	45%	11
		Barack Obama	31%	Mitt Romney	63%	32
Salt Lake Tribune Margin of error: ±5% Sample size: 400	April 26–28, 2010	Barack Obama	22%	Mitt Romney	73%	51
		Barack Obama	32%	Sarah Palin	53%	22
		Barack Obama	31%	Ron Paul	48%	17
Dan Jones Poll Margin of error: ±6.2% Sample size: 254	April 29, 2009	Barack Obama	27%	Mitt Romney	67%	40
Dan Jones Poll Margin of error: ±6.2% Sample size: 254	April 29, 2009	Barack Obama	25%	Jon Huntsman	58%	33

Vermont

3 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 59%–39%
(Democratic in 2008) 67%–30%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
Castleton State College Margin of error: ±4.0% Sample size: 607	May 7–16, 2012	Barack Obama	59%	Mitt Romney	28%	31
Castleton State College Margin of error: ±3.5% Sample size: 800	February 11–22, 2012	Barack Obama	57%	Mitt Romney	31%	26
		Barack Obama	59%	Rick Santorum	30%	29
		Barack Obama	58%	Ron Paul	28%	30
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±2.8% Sample size: 1,233	July 28–31, 2011	Barack Obama	58%	Michele Bachmann	30%	28
		Barack Obama	58%	Herman Cain	26%	32
		Barack Obama	53%	Mike Huckabee	36%	17
		Barack Obama	62%	Sarah Palin	28%	34
		Barack Obama	57%	Rick Perry	28%	29
		Barack Obama	54%	Mitt Romney	34%	20

Virginia

13 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 54%–46%
(Democratic in 2008) 53%–46%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
NBC News/Marist Margin of error: ±3.0% Sample size: 1,076RV	May 17-20, 2012	Barack Obama	48%	Mitt Romney	44%	4
Washington Post Margin of error: ±4% Sample size: 964	April 28 – May 1, 2012	Barack Obama	51%	Mitt Romney	44%	7
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.8% Sample size: 680	April 26–29, 2012	Barack Obama	53%	Newt Gingrich	37%	16
		Barack Obama	50%	Ron Paul	39%	11
		Barack Obama	51%	Mitt Romney	43%	8
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5 Sample size: 500	April 23, 2012	Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	45%	1
Purple Poll Margin of error: ±4.1% Sample size: 1,705	April 19–23, 2012	Barack Obama	48%	Mitt Romney	46%	2
Roanoke College Margin of error: ±4% Sample size: 603	March 26 – April 5, 2012	Barack Obama	40%	Mitt Romney	46%	6
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±3.1% Sample size: 1,034	March 13–18, 2012	Barack Obama	50%	Mitt Romney	42%	8
		Barack Obama	54%	Newt Gingrich	35%	19
		Barack Obama	49%	Rick Santorum	40%	9
		Barack Obama	49%	Ron Paul	39%	10
NBC News/Marist College Margin of error: ±2.8% Sample size: 1,273/1,245	February 29 – March 2, 2012	Barack Obama	52%	Mitt Romney	35%	17
		Barack Obama	57%	Newt Gingrich	31%	26
		Barack Obama	54%	Rick Santorum	32%	22
		Barack Obama	53%	Ron Paul	32%	21
Roanoke College Margin of error: ±4% Sample size: 607	February 13–26, 2012	Barack Obama	48%	Newt Gingrich	37%	11
		Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	43%	1
		Barack Obama	45%	Rick Santorum	39%	6
		Barack Obama	45%	Ron Paul	35%	10
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	February 21, 2012	Barack Obama	49%	Mitt Romney	43%	6
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	February 21, 2012	Barack Obama	51%	Rick Santorum	43%	8
Christopher Newport University Richmond Times-Dispatch Muhlenberg College Margin of error: ±3.1% Sample size: 1,018	February 4–13, 2012	Barack Obama	45%	Newt Gingrich	40%	5
		Barack Obama	43%	Mitt Romney	46%	2
		Barack Obama	42%	Rick Santorum	46%	4
		Barack Obama	43%	Ron Paul	43%	Tie
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.5% Sample size: 1,544	February 1–6, 2012	Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	43%	4
		Barack Obama	51%	Newt Gingrich	37%	14
		Barack Obama	49%	Rick Santorum	41%	8
		Barack Obama	47%	Ron Paul	40%	7
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±3.9% Sample size: 625	January 16–18, 2012	Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	44%	1
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±3.9% Sample size: 625	January 16–18, 2012	Barack Obama	49%	Newt Gingrich	38%	11
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.9% Sample size: 1,135	December 13–19, 2011	Barack Obama	46%	Newt Gingrich	41%	5
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.9% Sample size: 1,135	December 13–19, 2011	Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	44%	2
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4% Sample size: 600	December 11–13, 2011	Barack Obama	52%	Michele Bachmann	39%	13
		Barack Obama	50%	Newt Gingrich	43%	7
		Barack Obama	48%	Ron Paul	40%	8
		Barack Obama	51%	Rick Perry	41%	10
		Barack Obama	48%	Mitt Romney	42%	6
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.6 % Sample size: 1,459	October 3–9, 2011	Barack Obama	45%	Herman Cain	43%	2
		Barack Obama	47%	Rick Perry	42%	5
		Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	45%	1
CNU/Times-Dispatch Margin of error: ±3.1 % Sample size: 1,027	October 3–8, 2011	Barack Obama	43%	Rick Perry	43%	Tied
	October 3–8, 2011	Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	46%	4
Roanoke College Margin of error: ±4% Sample size: 601	September 6–17, 2011	Barack Obama	46%	Michele Bachmann	35%	9
		Barack Obama	50%	Sarah Palin	31%	19
		Barack Obama	43%	Ron Paul	33%	10
		Barack Obama	40%	Rick Perry	42%	2
		Barack Obama	37%	Mitt Romney	45%	8
Quinnipiac Margin of error: ±2.7 % Sample size: 1,368	September 7–12, 2011	Barack Obama	48%	Michele Bachmann	37%	11
		Barack Obama	50%	Sarah Palin	35%	15
		Barack Obama	44%	Rick Perry	42%	2
		Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	44%	2
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.4% Sample size: 500	July 21–24, 2011	Barack Obama	49%	Michele Bachmann	40%	9
		Barack Obama	49%	Herman Cain	38%	11
		Barack Obama	51%	Sarah Palin	37%	14
		Barack Obama	48%	Rick Perry	39%	9
		Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	43%	4
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.2% Sample size: 547	May 5–8, 2011	Barack Obama	54%	Newt Gingrich	37%	17
		Barack Obama	52%	Mike Huckabee	43%	9
		Barack Obama	55%	Sarah Palin	40%	15
		Barack Obama	51%	Mitt Romney	40%	11
		Barack Obama	54%	Donald Trump	32%	22
		Barack Obama	51%	Bob McDonnell	43%	8
The Washington Post Margin of error: ±3.5% Sample size: 503^[4]	May 2–4, 2011	Barack Obama	51%	Mitt Romney	44%	7
		Barack Obama	53%	Mike Huckabee	34%	9
		Barack Obama	55%	Tim Pawlenty	35%	20
		Barack Obama	61%	Donald Trump	30%	31
		Barack Obama	61%	Sarah Palin	30%	31
The Washington Post Margin of error: ±3.5% Sample size: 677^[5]	April 28 – May 1, 2011	Barack Obama	48%	Mitt Romney	46%	2
		Barack Obama	50%	Mike Huckabee	46%	4
		Barack Obama	51%	Tim Pawlenty	38%	13
		Barack Obama	54%	Donald Trump	35%	19
		Barack Obama	55%	Sarah Palin	36%	19
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.5% Sample size: 524	February 24–27, 2011	Barack Obama	51%	Newt Gingrich	39%	12
		Barack Obama	51%	Mike Huckabee	43%	8
		Barack Obama	54%	Sarah Palin	35%	19
		Barack Obama	48%	Mitt Romney	42%	6
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.2% Sample size: 551	November 10–13, 2010	Barack Obama	48%	Mitt Romney	43%	5
		Barack Obama	51%	Sarah Palin	40%	11
		Barack Obama	49%	Mike Huckabee	44%	5
		Barack Obama	52%	Newt Gingrich	41%	11

Washington

12 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 53%–46%
(Democratic in 2008) 58%–40%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
SurveyUSA Margin of error: ±4.2% Sample size: 557	May 8–9, 2012	Barack Obama	50%	Mitt Romney	36%	14
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±2.76% Sample size: 1,264	February 16–19, 2012	Barack Obama	55%	Newt Gingrich	35%	20
		Barack Obama	53%	Mitt Romney	38%	15
		Barack Obama	51%	Ron Paul	38%	13
		Barack Obama	52%	Rick Santorum	40%	12
Survey USA Margin of error: ±4.2% Sample size: 572	February 13–15, 2012	Barack Obama	56%	Newt Gingrich	34%	22
		Barack Obama	50%	Mitt Romney	39%	11
		Barack Obama	50%	Ron Paul	37%	13
		Barack Obama	51%	Rick Santorum	38%	13
Survey USA Margin of error: ±4.3% Sample size: 549	November 21–23, 2011	Barack Obama	56%	Newt Gingrich	37%	19
Survey USA Margin of error: ±4.3% Sample size: 549	November 21–23, 2011	Barack Obama	49%	Mitt Romney	41%	8
University of Washington Margin of error: ±3.2% Sample size: 938	October 10–30, 2011	Barack Obama	54%	Rick Perry	41%	13
	October 10–30, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Mitt Romney	41%	9
Strategies 360 Margin of error: ±4.4% Sample size: 500	September 11–14, 2011	Barack Obama	51%	Rick Perry	37%	14
Strategies 360 Margin of error: ±4.4% Sample size: 500	September 11–14, 2011	Barack Obama	49%	Mitt Romney	40%	9
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.0% Sample size: 1098	May 12–15, 2011	Barack Obama	54%	Newt Gingrich	36%	18
		Barack Obama	53%	Mike Huckabee	39%	14
		Barack Obama	57%	Sarah Palin	34%	23
		Barack Obama	51%	Mitt Romney	40%	11
		Barack Obama	58%	Donald Trump	31%	27

West Virginia

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 56%–43%
(Republican in 2008) 56%–43%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
R.L. Repass Margin of error: ±4.8% Sample size: 410	April 25–28, 2012	Barack Obama	37%	Mitt Romney	54%	17
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.2% Sample size: 932	September 30 – October 2, 2011	Barack Obama	37%	Michele Bachmann	52%	15
		Barack Obama	36%	Newt Gingrich	51%	15
		Barack Obama	34%	Ron Paul	48%	14
		Barack Obama	36%	Rick Perry	52%	16
		Barack Obama	33%	Mitt Romney	54%	21
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.7% Sample size: 708	September 1–4, 2011	Barack Obama	39%	Michele Bachmann	48%	9
		Barack Obama	40%	Newt Gingrich	45%	5
		Barack Obama	42%	Sarah Palin	45%	3
		Barack Obama	38%	Rick Perry	49%	11
		Barack Obama	37%	Mitt Romney	49%	12
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±2.9% Sample size: 1105	January 20–23, 2011	Barack Obama	39%	Newt Gingrich	49%	10
		Barack Obama	36%	Mike Huckabee	54%	18
		Barack Obama	42%	Sarah Palin	46%	4
		Barack Obama	37%	Mitt Romney	50%	13

Wisconsin

10 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 50%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 56%–42%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin
St. Norbery College Margin of error: ±5.0% Sample size: 406	May 17-22, 2012	Barack Obama	49%	Mitt Romney	43%	6
Daily Kos Wisconsin Poll Margin of error: ±3.4% Sample size: 851	May 11-13, 2012	Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	46%	1
Marquette Law School Margin of error: ±4.1% Sample size: 600	May 9–12, 2012	Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	46%	Tied
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	May 9, 2012	Barack Obama	49%	Mitt Romney	45%	4
Marquette University Margin of error: ±3.8% Sample size: 705	April 26-29, 2012	Barack Obama	51%	Mitt Romney	42%	9
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±2.6% Sample size: 1,391–1400	April 13–15, 2012	Barack Obama	50%	Mitt Romney	44%	6
NBC News/Marist College Margin of error: ±2.6% Sample size: 1,391–1400	March 22–25, 2012	Barack Obama	52%	Mitt Romney	35%	17
		Barack Obama	51%	Rick Santorum	38%	13
		Barack Obama	56%	Newt Gingrich	31%	25
		Barack Obama	51%	Ron Paul	36%	15
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	March 27, 2012	Barack Obama	52%	Mitt Romney	41%	11
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	March 27, 2012	Barack Obama	51%	Rick Santorum	39%	12
Marquette University Margin of error: ±3.7% Sample size: 707	March 22–25, 2012	Barack Obama	48%	Mitt Romney	43%	5
		Barack Obama	51%	Rick Santorum	39%	12
		Barack Obama	53%	Newt Gingrich	36%	17
		Barack Obama	50%	Ron Paul	40%	10
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	February 27, 2012	Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	42%	5
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	February 27, 2012	Barack Obama	46%	Rick Santorum	41%	5
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.27% Sample size: 900	February 23–26, 2012	Barack Obama	55%	Newt Gingrich	37%	18
		Barack Obama	53%	Ron Paul	37%	16
		Barack Obama	53%	Mitt Romney	39%	14
		Barack Obama	49%	Rick Santorum	43%	6
Marquette University Margin of error: ±3.7% Sample size: 716	February 16–19, 2012	Barack Obama	53%	Mitt Romney	38%	15
		Barack Obama	51%	Rick Santorum	40%	11
		Barack Obama	56%	Newt Gingrich	33%	23
		Barack Obama	52%	Ron Paul	36%	16
Marquette University Margin of error: ±3.8% Sample size: 701	January 19–22, 2012	Barack Obama	48%	Mitt Romney	40%	8
Rasmussen Reports Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 500	October 26, 2011	Barack Obama	47%	Herman Cain	42%	5
		Barack Obama	42%	Rick Perry	46%	4
		Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	41%	4
WRPI Margin of error: ±4% Sample size: 605	October 18–26, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Herman Cain	31%	19
		Barack Obama	48%	Rick Perry	30%	18
		Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	35%	11
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±2.9% Sample size: 1,170	October 20–23, 2011	Barack Obama	51%	Michele Bachmann	40%	11
		Barack Obama	49%	Herman Cain	42%	7
		Barack Obama	52%	Newt Gingrich	38%	14
		Barack Obama	50%	Rick Perry	39%	11
		Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	43%	3
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.4% Sample size: 830	August 12–14, 2011	Barack Obama	51%	Michele Bachmann	39%	12
		Barack Obama	50%	Herman Cain	36%	14
		Barack Obama	52%	Sarah Palin	40%	12
		Barack Obama	50%	Rick Perry	40%	10
		Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	42%	5
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±2.4% Sample size: 1,636	May 19–22, 2011	Barack Obama	53%	Newt Gingrich	35%	18
		Barack Obama	55%	Sarah Palin	36%	19
		Barack Obama	51%	Mitt Romney	39%	12
		Barack Obama	50%	Paul Ryan	43%	7
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.5% Sample size: 768	February 24–27, 2011	Barack Obama	51%	Newt Gingrich	39%	12
		Barack Obama	48%	Mike Huckabee	41%	7
		Barack Obama	54%	Sarah Palin	35%	19
		Barack Obama	48%	Mitt Romney	38%	10
		Barack Obama	49%	Paul Ryan	40%	9
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.7% Sample size: 702	December 10–12, 2010	Barack Obama	50%	Newt Gingrich	41%	9
		Barack Obama	47%	Mike Huckabee	41%	6
		Barack Obama	52%	Sarah Palin	38%	14
		Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	42%	4

Opinion polling: three-way race