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English: This graph shows projections of global sea level rise (SLR) by 2100, compared to 2000. It is based on several studies. Projections range from 18 to 200.8 cm.
Projections Projections are for the late-21st-century (2090-2099), relative to the late-20th-century (1980-1999). AR4 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projected sea level rise in its Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4 SYR, 2007).[1] Projections suggest SLR of between 18-59 cm. IPCC AR4 SYR (2007)[1] state: "Because understanding of some important effects driving sea level rise is too limited, this report does not assess the likelihood, nor provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea level rise." According to the US National Research Council (US NRC, 2012),[2] "the [AR4] projections are likely underestimates because they do not account fully for cryospheric processes". US NRC 2011 US NRC (2011)[3] project SLR of about 50-100 cm. Horton et al. Projections of SLR by Horton et al. (2008)[4] range from 47-100 cm. According to Horton et al. (2008):[5] "[the] projections described here are likely to underestimate future sea level rise if recent trends in the polar regions accelerate." Grinsted et al. Grinsted et al. (2009)[6] made several projections of SLR. Assuming moderate growth in future greenhouse gas emissions (the SRES "A1B" scenario), sea level is projected to rise by 91-132 cm. This projection is based on a historical temperature reconstruction by Moberg et al. (2005)[7] (referred to by Grinsted et al., 2009).[6] US NRC (2012) US NRC (2012)[8] project SLR of 82.7 cm, with an error range of ±10.6 cm. Their lower and upper projections of SLR are 50.4 cm and 140.2 cm, respectively. US NRC (2012)[9] state: "No formal probability analysis of the individual contributors of uncertainty was performed, so the projections are not necessarily the likeliest outcomes, and the ranges are not the highest or lowest possibilities." Jevrejeva et al. Jevrejeva et al. (2012)[10] project SLR using four of the "RCP" emissions scenarios. For these scenarios, SLR projections range from 57-110 cm (median estimates), with an error range (5-95% confidence intervals) of 36-165 cm. Vermeer and Rahmstorf Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009)[11] (referred to by US NRC, 2012)[8] project SLR of 121 cm, with a range of 78-175 cm.[12] Pfeffer et al. Pfeffer et al. (2008)[13] project SLR of 78.5-200.8 cm. According to Pfeffer et al. (2008):[14] "increases in excess of 2 meters are physically untenable. We find that a total sea-level rise of about 2 meters by 2100 could occur under physically possible glaciological conditions but only if all variables are quickly accelerated to extremely high limits. More plausible but still accelerated conditions lead to total sea-level rise by 2100 of about 0.8 meter." Notes
References
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Own work This chart was created with LibreOffice Calc. |
| Author | Enescot |
Data
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Licensing
 
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This file is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication. |
| The person who associated a work with this deed has dedicated the work to the public domain by waiving all of their rights to the work worldwide under copyright law, including all related and neighboring rights, to the extent allowed by law. You can copy, modify, distribute and perform the work, even for commercial purposes, all without asking permission.
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Data
Data are given below as comma-separated values (CSV). The data were exported from OpenOffice 3.4.1 Calc using the following options (enclosed in braces): Character set: {Western Europe (Windows-1252/WinLatin}; Field delimiter: {,}; text delimiter: {"}.
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Licensing
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|
This file is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication. |
| The person who associated a work with this deed has dedicated the work to the public domain by waiving all of their rights to the work worldwide under copyright law, including all related and neighboring rights, to the extent allowed by law. You can copy, modify, distribute and perform the work, even for commercial purposes, all without asking permission.
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| Date/Time | Thumbnail | Dimensions | User | Comment | |
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| current | 07:41, 5 May 2013 | | 1,066 × 692 (11 KB) | Enescot | {{Information |Description ={{en|1=This graph shows projections of global sea level rise by 2100, compared to 2000. It is based on several studies. Projections range from 18 to 200.8 cm.}} |Source ={{own}} |Author =[[User:Enescot|Ene... |
